Maple Fun Posted September 29, 2019 Posted September 29, 2019 I am buying GDC.TO Genesis Land Development recently, a speculation on federal election..
DanielGMask Posted September 29, 2019 Posted September 29, 2019 Almost doubled my position in AYR. Possibly the best risk/reward and margin of safety Ive seen in a very long time. Now trading at basically 2.5x 2020 adjusted EBIDTA. Buyback starts October 1st. I'm not familiar with this kind of company but the numbers look interesting. How do you evaluate the risk of leasees not paying? What do you mean by leasees not paying? They do not have the model that relies on leasing. ... My guess: he's talking about Aircastle ($AYR), you are talking about AYR strategies ($AYR-A.CA). Indeed.
Gregmal Posted September 30, 2019 Posted September 30, 2019 Bought some more AYR. Here's hoping this bitch finally bottomed...
Gregmal Posted October 2, 2019 Posted October 2, 2019 Picked up a few CTO and have been filled on 5 GRIF. Lucky me!
BG2008 Posted October 2, 2019 Posted October 2, 2019 Sold more BERY $45 puts which means I am long the stock at $37. Looking to turn around and buy some BERY commons as well with the put proceeds.
BG2008 Posted October 2, 2019 Posted October 2, 2019 Sold more BERY $45 puts which means I am long the stock at $37. Looking to turn around and buy some BERY commons as well with the put proceeds. For Clarification, I have owned both Berry commons and the $45 puts when it was trading about $50. I paid $1.45 for the puts and just sold a portion at $8.30. I can elect to buy more shares or LEAPs or both. I should just quit picking stock and start buying puts.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted October 2, 2019 Posted October 2, 2019 Cash. Following the sale of 20% of my S&P 500 puts. Waiting for 30+ VIX to sell more. Have been buying & selling over the last 2-3 weeks. Typically 20-30% of the position. When VIX dropped to 15-17 I was buying and selling those same contracts each time it went to 20+. Entire position has basically been paid for in profits at this point and I purchased more today. Sold ~15% of the core put position today when VIX hit 20. Will probably let a bit more go if me move closer to 25, but still waiting for that elusive 30+ print on the VIX to signal panic to let the bulk of the position go.
Spekulatius Posted October 2, 2019 Posted October 2, 2019 I ended up adding to FOX and GILD and bought back some RYCEY
kab60 Posted October 4, 2019 Posted October 4, 2019 Some Altria the other day, more Linamar yesterday (around 30 pct. position).
no_free_lunch Posted October 4, 2019 Posted October 4, 2019 I ended up adding to FOX and GILD and bought back some RYCEY Can you comment at all on RYCEY? Even with the pullback it doesn't seem that terribly cheap to me but I admit I don't understand the financials.
Spekulatius Posted October 7, 2019 Posted October 7, 2019 I ended up adding to FOX and GILD and bought back some RYCEY Can you comment at all on RYCEY? Even with the pullback it doesn't seem that terribly cheap to me but I admit I don't understand the financials. I look at RYCEY‘s valuation in terms of EV/ sales. It trades at around 1xEV/ sales, but once profitability is addressed, it should be able to get to 2x eventually. Now add done revenue growth to it, one can easily see more than a 2 bagger. Bases on Current results, you are correct , Rolls Royce isn’t cheap at all. I am optimistic though, because there is just such a strong moat around this business and there is really only one competitor ( and Pratt& Whittey to some extend). Likewise logic can be applied to GE, except I have more concerns about their accounting.
Saluki Posted October 8, 2019 Posted October 8, 2019 Building a position in STNG (scorpio tankers) and bought a tiny bit in SALT (scorpio bulkers) which owns a big slug of STNG. Added to my large position in SSW (Seaspan) and bought some more JOE on the dip.
Castanza Posted October 8, 2019 Posted October 8, 2019 Building a position in STNG (scorpio tankers) and bought a tiny bit in SALT (scorpio bulkers) which owns a big slug of STNG. Added to my large position in SSW (Seaspan) and bought some more JOE on the dip. Curious if you have looked at Ardmore Shipping ASC at all?
Saluki Posted October 8, 2019 Posted October 8, 2019 Building a position in STNG (scorpio tankers) and bought a tiny bit in SALT (scorpio bulkers) which owns a big slug of STNG. Added to my large position in SSW (Seaspan) and bought some more JOE on the dip. Curious if you have looked at Ardmore Shipping ASC at all? Only very briefly. I'm not done with my "deep dive" on shipping yet, so STNG and SALT are not big positions for me yet. IIRC, ASC's product tanker fleet is about 6.5 years old on average and STNG's is about 4.5 years old on average. Since I think newer fuel efficient ships will have a big advantage over the older ships, it's the first thing I zoned in on. I'll take a look at it and if it looks good, maybe do a basket approach. What do you like about it? SSW I started buying about 1.5 years ago. When Sokol became Chairman, I looked at it as a bet on the jockey, not the horse, but I think the way he's fixed the balance sheet and added flexibility in the financing could be a game changer. Basel III made it more unattractive (in required net capital)for banks to lend on ships, so I think a lot of financing is going to move towards private equity and patient money deals like what SSW did with Fairfax. I started looking at STNG when I saw a writeup about it on Adventures in Capitalism. I came across his website when he did a bullish writeup on my 3rd largest position (JOE). It sounded like a smart idea so I started digging. Besides investor presentations, I'm on my 3rd book on shipping (already read Shipping Man, Dynasties of the Sea and now on Viking Raid) and I'm learning a lot as I go. The CEO of STNG (Bugbee) was on a podcast recently. He sums up the bull thesis (IMO 2020 causing a shortage of available ships and driving up pricing) pretty well. It's hard to find anything that floats that is trading above book value now because the sector has been suffering for so long. I don't like the debt that they all have either, but it looks interesting and I hope will get better. Terrible industries with debt that get worse make me sad if I have money in them.
Castanza Posted October 8, 2019 Posted October 8, 2019 I did do some reading in Ardmore about a year ago and it seemed that their tankers were specifically equipped to ship low sulfur fuel which is going to become the standard fuel option for ships due to emission regulations. Again take this with a grain of salt as I quickly lost interest in the sector and didn’t do any type of deep dive. But it seemed that although their fleet was a bit older they were better positioned and sort of cornered the market on distributing this fuel.
Spekulatius Posted October 8, 2019 Posted October 8, 2019 I did do some reading in Ardmore about a year ago and it seemed that their tankers were specifically equipped to ship low sulfur fuel which is going to become the standard fuel option for ships due to emission regulations. Again take this with a grain of salt as I quickly lost interest in the sector and didn’t do any type of deep dive. But it seemed that although their fleet was a bit older they were better positioned and sort of cornered the market on distributing this fuel. I get a sinking feeling when I read about value in the shipping sector.
elliott Posted October 9, 2019 Posted October 9, 2019 EAF 30% of the target position if numbers & story, not just pabrai, convince me
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