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Europe has a deal!


shalab
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I am getting the sense that Europe has finally hit the debt wall. The key question is how much Germany is willing to pay. If they are willing to pay lots they may make a difference to how this plays out. The south will not change their ways (how can we rip off the government) and France will not shrink its civil service. I do not see this crisis resulting in European culture coming together; I see the opposite as the losers (i.e. Greece) develop a new level of hatred to the northern countries and a rise in nationalism.

 

Right now we have positive reports about a 50% cut in Greek Debt etc. Who is it that is paying the bill (which countries)?

 

I am reading that Europe is going into recession. Recession plus austerity Greek style (coming to more countries) does not look good to me.

 

This does not look like the end to me... perhaps the end of the begining.

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I am getting the sense that Europe has finally hit the debt wall. The key question is how much Germany is willing to pay. If they are willing to pay lots they may make a difference to how this plays out. The south will not change their ways (how can we rip off the government) and France will not shrink its civil service. I do not see this crisis resulting in European culture coming together; I see the opposite as the losers (i.e. Greece) develop a new level of hatred to the northern countries and a rise in nationalism.

 

Right now we have positive reports about a 50% cut in Greek Debt etc. Who is it that is paying the bill (which countries)?

 

I am reading that Europe is going into recession. Recession plus austerity Greek style (coming to more countries) does not look good to me.

 

This does not look like the end to me... perhaps the end of the begining.

 

They are doing exactly what they need to do to stabilize the banking system, and remove the risk of a domino effect occurring from counterparty liability through credit default swaps.  It isn't a cure...it's the equivalent of a respiratory intubation.  Now they can breathe, but the long, arduous task of reforming soverign fiduciary responsibility begins.  No different than what happened in the U.S. 

 

The risk of a depression in Europe has decreased signficantly...the risk of a Greece default has been reduced.  The banks will be on board with the 50% hit because they simply have no choice.  It's either a 50% hit, or you fail!  Greece will actually have a real chance of paying its debt back over time.

 

Not a solution, but it creates the opportunity for reformation and change.  Cheers!   

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The risk of a depression in Europe has decreased signficantly...the risk of a Greece default has been reduced.  The banks will be on board with the 50% hit because they simply have no choice.   

 

Yet they deem the haircut as "voluntary" to try and avoid the CDS default trigger.  Will ISDA go along with this charade?

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Yet they deem the haircut as "voluntary" to try and avoid the CDS default trigger.  Will ISDA go along with this charade?

 

 

Couldn't agree more.  Trust the Europeans, the masters of fashion,  to set a new standard in terms of the "Emperor's new clothes".   

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Hard to see how a voluntary haircut will work.  We tried all types of schemes like that to fix the asset-backed commercial paper freeze-up in Canada three years ago, and it only takes a small percentage of self-interested participants to dig their heels in.

 

Why shouldn't an investor tell Greece where to shove their "voluntary" haircut?  Everybody "sucker" who accepts the haircut just increased your likelihood of an eventual 100 cent recovery....  And if they try to strong-arm you, then they face the risk of default!

 

 

SJ

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This bit from Royal Dutch Shell says it all:

 

There were corporate doubters, too. Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell said it planned to curb its investments in the European Union in future due to doubts about the bloc's chances of recovering from the crisis.

 

"Europe's macroeconomic position can only recover and the sovereign debt crisis can only be addressed through underlying economic growth," Simon Henry, chief financial officer, told reporters on a conference call on Thursday.

 

"We do not see the European Union creating the conditions for that, in fact quite the opposite," he said.

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"The leaders agreed on two ways to increase the firepower of the EU bailout fund, known as the European Financial Stability Facility. The methods will each leverage the fund by four or five fold, the statement said, boosting its resources to about €1 trillion."

 

Where is this going to come from?

 

Sovereign wealth funds? That's a lot of cash. Who has that amount of cash to lend these guys?

 

I think I can hear the printing of money.

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I can't wait to see how the CDS aspect plays out on the bank P&L.  Most of the banks in reporting their Greek exposures give a "net" number after hedging.  If they're taking a 50% haircut on the debt but can't get that 50% back on their so-called-hedges it could be a massive loss.  Or a massive gain for anyone who'd been selling the CDS and shorting the bonds.

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1. The only concrete thing that has been achieved is to take a disorderly greek default off the table. That is the good news. Now we have to see which of the European financials are swimming naked i.e. who cannot take a 50% haircut on Greek debt and stay solvent.

 

2. There is no agreement on how much EFSF would be leveraged. Two general solutions agreed upon are (a) Making available insurance on new sovereign debt. They dont have the capability for complete protection so we have to see what % of the losses would be covered by this and which countries debt would be guarenteed. (b) Vague refrence to private/public paternership. I dont know which private investor would participate in this. Overall I dont see much of substance that has been achieved with respect to how contagion would be contained beyond Greece.

 

I am unimpressed with the recapitalization plan of their banks ($150 billion) as well. I am surprised that the market reacted so positively to such a small step.

 

The policy statement is an entertaining read however:

 

http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/125644.pdf

 

"All other euro area Member States solemnly reaffirm their inflexible determination to honour

fully their own individual sovereign signature and all their commitments to sustainable fiscal

conditions and structural reforms."

 

Vinod

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