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Everything posted by claphands22

  1. Barton Biggs's Hedgehogging had a thinly veld profile on Leon Cooperman of Omega -- Greg of Mega. Described him as a screamer. I like his picks and generally gives good reasoning behind his picks. He once mentioned Tetragon Financial, which looks like a cheaper version of Annaly. http://books.google.com/books?id=DgAv6GaGUjoC&pg=PA192&lpg=PA192&dq=greg+mega+hedge+hogging&source=bl&ots=pjpSMbrlLY&sig=Cp-Sm3sZd_FnZ-TdwqcbzLLTZMY&hl=en&sa=X&ei=0mHJU7CzJ5CnyAThtYHQCA&ved=0CCoQ6AEwAQ#v=onepage&q=greg%20mega%20hedge%20hogging&f=false
  2. This was originally posted over at reddit (http://www.reddit.com/r/SecurityAnalysis/) Part 1: https://cdnapisec.kaltura.com/p/24852/sp/2485200/embedIframeJs/uiconf_id/15401271/partner_id/24852?iframeembed=true&playerId=kaltura_player_1400007160&entry_id=1_fi06rgf3&flashvars[streamerType]=auto Part 2: https://cdnapisec.kaltura.com/p/24852/sp/2485200/embedIframeJs/uiconf_id/15401271/partner_id/24852?iframeembed=true&playerId=kaltura_player_1400007186&entry_id=1_38g90ebo&flashvars%5BstreamerType%5D=auto
  3. Planet Money had an episode called The Last Mile that talked about a FTC ruling that allowed the companies to control the cable they installed. This is unlike long distance in America which got opened up and competition drove down the prices. http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2014/04/04/299060527/episode-529-the-last-mile Maybe this doesn't answer your question fully, or isn't a great answer -- best one I can give.
  4. Hi, I am looking for resources to understand the analysis of REITs; something like a good industry primer, good shareholder letters or a great valuation on a REIT that shows the dynamic of adjusted occupancy rates, interest rate changes and rental yields. Thanks
  5. Hey Parsad, I got a feeling we would never fully agree on this subject. Hempton seems eccentric but I would never say he is a dick. If I genuinely believe someone is holding a stock I believe has accounting gimmicks and could go to zero -- I hope I would do exactly what Hempton did. I think it's the right thing to do. Definitely wouldn't consider Hank Greenberg or Jim Chanos "retards". They both have a long history of uncovering frauds and warning investors about bubble'ish stocks. I know you know this. The foreign subsidiaries (Fairfax Gibraltar, nSpre Re in Ireland) and NMS Cayman transaction + all the characters involved make it a fascinating story.
  6. I wonder when they did their discovery. If it was before the CDS boon then it's interesting, but if it was after they could have been easily shored up with their CDS bet. It's an interesting read -- Hempton comes off genuine and knowledgeable.
  7. The call options do seem cheap. I'm looking at Interactve and December 21 2018 call options at a 68 strike price go for 5.60. Nestle is at 65.60 today. Could be interesting, thanks.
  8. Anyone know of a good course/book/site that explains how SEC files work? I'm not talking about the basics. I want to know how long a company has to file and how that changes for foreign/jobs act companies. I'm looking for nitty-gritty books explaining SEC filing law. Thanks!
  9. Basic question: Are companies allowed to do a press releases of their unaudited financial statements without filing with the SEC?
  10. I wrote extensive notes (7,000+ words) on the Art of Short Selling here: http://walrusvalue.blogspot.com/2014/02/notes-on-art-of-short-selling.html I hope someone will find them useful.
  11. I wonder why certain countries have a higher rate of default than others.
  12. Hi randomep, Check out Quality of Earning by O'Glove the book does a great job of showing potential signs of fraud in the balance sheet. The Art of Short Selling is great as well, but I would suggest Quality of Earnings first. Just because you have a Big 4 auditor doesn't mean the company will be fraud free. If it is a smaller accounting firm, research them -- often times they are fine but if they have worked with other fraudulent firms it is generally best to stay away. I would heavily discount inventory of a small cap (or large company for that matter) if you are taking a balance sheet approach to valuing a company. I don't know if I have answered your question. Reviewing financial fidelity can be tricky, it takes three measures of skepticism for each measure of optimism.
  13. The Art of Short Selling is a great book, which is why I started the thread. The main takeaway from the book is the general pattern of short selling. Find a great short candidate, watch it run against you for a year(s) but with patience you should get rewarded. Short candidates have repeating themes: fads, frauds, accounting gimmicks and obscene valuations. You'll need to watch the short interest as a percentage of float because of squeezes; Staley recommends staying away from shorts where the short interest, as a percentage of float, is higher than 15%. She gives lots of case studies of good shorts, some that were stressing to short, some that were instantly rewarding. No way to tell before hand how a short is going to go. The book was published in 1997 so it might seem dated to some people but I enjoyed the aged case studies, it reinforces the cyclical nature of the markets. I am rereading it again before I have to return the book, I'll try to type up some notes for whoever is interested.
  14. Investment Case for Hyundai Mobis Preferreds Published by: Guy Spier on Feb 02, 2013 Presentation by Chris Detweiler at VALUEx 2013 http://www.scribd.com/doc/123485753/Investment-Case-for-Hyundai-Mobis-Preferreds
  15. [amazonsearch]The Art of Short Selling[/amazonsearch] The Art of Short Selling is written by Kathryn Staley. The book covers the risks of short selling, the personalities of professional short sellers, bubble stocks, high valuations, gobbledygook business plans, industry obsolescence, Crazy Eddie, the shortcomings of short selling, the history of short selling, and the fundamentals of finding shorts. The book sells for 40USD+ for a new copy or the kindle edition. Looks like used copies can be purchased for 24 dollars at the moment. I got mine through the interlibrary loan system at my local library. "The corollary to the disclosure dilemma is that most analysts are afraid to admit that hey do not understand accounting or accounting terminology. So the cycle is self-perpetuating: Chief financial officers do not explain; analysts do not ask."
  16. Posted this on reddit a day ago, I am guessing you saw it there. Miguel Barbosa, who did the interview with Alice Schroeder, does fantastic work. He writes at www.klevr.org and www.interviewsforinvestors.com and occasionally at www.simoleonsense.com
  17. Congratulations Packer! Very impressive track record and thanks for sharing your ideas and thoughts.
  18. Thanks nestorius, I went through that list and none of them were the spin off. They had been public for too long to have been spun off this year.
  19. There was a recent manual of ideas interview where they mentioned a possible idea but no name. Here are the details. Anybody know what company this is? Italian Spin off around Janurary Market cap ~ 60M Euro There is a family with 70% of the shares Anyone know? - Josh
  20. America is absolutely funny about regulating investments. Lack of consumer debt regulation allowed the founders of Youtube to start a company with massive credit card debt and sell out for a winning lottery ticket, but our same lack regulation also causes penny stock scams, payday loans and (currently) massive unforgivable student loans with low ROI attached. There needs to be massive student loan reform in the US. Most people are familiar of the problems associated with Law schools, but the problem has also started to trickled down to other professional programs: pharmacy, osteopathic medicine, optometry and dentistry. DTEJD1997's lawyer friend is definitely in a bad situation but to give an example of how school cost have become menacingly high, check out USC's cost of attendance for dental school, $426,523! Of course that number doesn't even include the 4 years of opportunity cost, the additional year of a probable residency and the cost of buying a practice.
  21. If you enjoy all things money related, there is no better program than Planet Money. Listen to a couple episodes, you will wonder how you lived without it. I suggest subscribing to the Planet Money podcast on iTunes. While subscribing to Planet Money, subscribe to Manual of Ideas for some great value interviews. Planet Money: http://www.npr.org/rss/podcast.php?id=510289 MOI - Value Investing Podcast: http://beyondproxy.libsyn.com/rss
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