longlake95 Posted January 22 Posted January 22 8 minutes ago, flesh said: So bummed, woke up, saw 1625, kept putting in orders near the current bid and then it'd go up, went on for 10 minutes, no fills, finally got some filled at 1670, lame. Glad some of you guys were faster, it's hard to think after waking while taking a piss. get up earlier.
gfp Posted January 22 Posted January 22 (edited) There was enough liquidity to use market orders this morning. I usually don't use market orders but this type of morning is the perfect time to use them. Primarily through fidelity on FRFHF, since they route to citadel and those fills are usually very good in a fast moving liquid market Edited January 22 by gfp
gary17 Posted January 22 Posted January 22 2 hours ago, Hoodlum said: I don't see that. Are you sure you were not looking at total volume?
Hoodlum Posted January 22 Posted January 22 20 minutes ago, gary17 said: that’s weird as mine looks different for the same time.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted January 22 Posted January 22 1 hour ago, Hoodlum said: I thought Fairfax doesn't screen well for Quants. Or maybe Quants are only active on the sell side. I'm glad someone else picked me up on this 1 hour ago, flesh said: So bummed, woke up, saw 1625, kept putting in orders near the current bid and then it'd go up, went on for 10 minutes, no fills, finally got some filled at 1670, lame. Glad some of you guys were faster, it's hard to think after waking while taking a piss. Yea. I normally use limits. Put on in at the mid, but it didn't fill. Decided I didn't want to wait and just used market orders to get filled. Was 1% above the quoted price, but still a -6% handle on the open price so I was satisfied.
Parsad Posted January 22 Posted January 22 4 hours ago, Santayana said: I blame it all on Parsad's US Treasury risk thread! I had trimmed a little at $1900, adding some of that back now. Hey I added a bunch in one of my cash accounts this morning that didn't own any at $2,267...this reminds me of what happened a couple of months ago, where it fell nearly 12% over a week and then rebounded up 20-25% over a few weeks. Far better than 2-4% annual interest! Cheers!
Txvestor Posted January 22 Posted January 22 3 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: I mean, the move hasn't been "missed". It's still down 5-6% from the open and much more than that YTD. Even if you didn't bottom tick the -9% this AM, there may still be time to get shares there and you may still benefit from buying at 10-15% off the 12/30 top. Thats exactly right. I brought myself up to a 30% position 1675. That's a PE of under 8 on last year's earnings. And probably 1.15x adjusted BV(adjusted for unrealized gains) for a collection of quality diversified insurances franchises with $37B of float, $26B of equity investments and locked in long term capital at good rates. I'm not seeing a ton better out there
Parsad Posted January 22 Posted January 22 4 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: It's possible. We're all doing our part But without knowing what's causing the flash crash of 8% and billions wiped off the market cap, there's no way for us to know if it'll persist. If it goes down further...just keep averaging in. That's what I do. Right size when it recovers. They are going to make over $200 USD per share over these 12 months if you include unrealized gains. The stock, regardless of insurance markets, should be worth close to $3,000 CDN by the end of the year or into early 2027. Cheers!
value_hunter Posted January 22 Posted January 22 The 99000 volume trade must be a prearrange trade. Would it be possible Fairafx is unwinding its TRS position and then buy shares from counterparts. Every time the price tunking happened after quarter end, feel like they don't want affect the quarter results.
Hoodlum Posted January 22 Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, value_hunter said: There is another 123k trade just happened. I am glad you guys are posting this. For some reason I do not see these
Parsad Posted January 22 Posted January 22 23 minutes ago, gary17 said: Isn't that total volume for the day up until that point? Cheers! 1
gfp Posted January 22 Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, Parsad said: Isn't that total volume for the day up until that point? Cheers! No, yahoo finance is showing a couple of random volume spikes during the day that aren't showing up on other data providers. I'm not sure I would take yahoo finance as correct. IB doesn't show the large trades. I don't have a bloomberg to check
Hoodlum Posted January 22 Posted January 22 Just now, gfp said: No, yahoo finance is showing a couple of random volume spikes during the day that aren't showing up on other data providers. I'm not sure I would take yahoo finance as correct. IB doesn't show the large trades. I don't have a bloomberg to check That would make sense as I don't see these large trades at TD or RBC.
Santayana Posted January 22 Posted January 22 1 hour ago, Parsad said: Hey I added a bunch in one of my cash accounts this morning that didn't own any at $2,267...this reminds me of what happened a couple of months ago, where it fell nearly 12% over a week and then rebounded up 20-25% over a few weeks. Far better than 2-4% annual interest! Cheers! I was wondering if this move had brought it close enough to book value to get you buying again. Gotta love the volatility!
Parsad Posted January 22 Posted January 22 41 minutes ago, Santayana said: I was wondering if this move had brought it close enough to book value to get you buying again. Gotta love the volatility! Bigger than a nibble, smaller than a bite...if it continues to go down, will continue to buy. Cheers!
LC Posted January 22 Posted January 22 3 hours ago, gfp said: There was enough liquidity to use market orders this morning. I usually don't use market orders but this type of morning is the perfect time to use them. Primarily through fidelity on FRFHF, since they route to citadel and those fills are usually very good in a fast moving liquid market I learn something new every day. My limit orders felt lonely, no hits. Should've used market orders but Fairfax usually has a large spread I was worried the brokers would screw me. But in retrospect you're right - even if you hit the ask it would've been preferable to no fills.
ValueMaven Posted January 23 Posted January 23 I was able to buy a lot of the ADR between prices of $1600 - $1610 today. Had to act quick! Thank you BMO! 1
MMM20 Posted January 23 Posted January 23 (edited) Reminder that ~10% drawdowns are still common... Price of admission for ~40% compounding for ~5 years... And the stock is still cheap however you cut it... Especially if you apply Buffett's logic on the float... A) book value + float methodology B) two-pillar methodology I'm a buyer. I'd be a seller if it doubled overnight. Edited January 23 by MMM20
SafetyinNumbers Posted January 23 Posted January 23 35 minutes ago, MMM20 said: d the stock is still cheap however you cut it... And the FTM PE is overstated because it’s based on adjusted EPS not IFRS EPS.
MMM20 Posted January 23 Posted January 23 (edited) 2 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said: And the FTM PE is overstated because it’s based on adjusted EPS not IFRS EPS. Yes, though I assume that’s offset by mid-high 90s combined, which would still be great performance, right? The big picture point is that Fairfax is still structurally set up for high compounding with high volatility, and almost all other market participants can’t or won’t value that as highly as we do (or a robot would from first principles). Yesterday was a good reminder. Edited January 23 by MMM20
UK Posted January 23 Posted January 23 2 hours ago, MMM20 said: Reminder that ~10% drawdowns are still common... Price of admission for ~40% compounding for ~5 years... And the stock is still cheap however you cut it... Especially if you apply Buffett's logic on the float... A) book value + float methodology B) two-pillar methodology I'm a buyer. I'd be a seller if it doubled overnight. Cool stuff!
Viking Posted January 23 Posted January 23 A question for board members... How do you think about the significant (and growing) amount of "hidden value" that is residing in Fairfax's equity portfolio/balance sheet. Is there a "right way" to think about it? (academic and/or practical) For people on the board who have owned Berkshire Hathaway long term, my guess is this has been something you have had to grapple with. How did you do it? For Fairfax, some of the "hidden value" is pretty easy to calculate (excess of FV over CV for the publicly traded holdings like Eurobank). Some of it is less precise (like BIAL). I find it a fascinating topic. It is a fact - it is not theoretical. It is a big number: My guess is ~$4.5 billion = $155/diluted share, after tax It is growing by ~+$1 billion per year As we learned the past 2 days, some analysts ignore it completely in their analysis of the company. My guess is "hidden value" at Fairfax is going to continue to increase in size in the coming years. The equity portfolio is growing rapidly. A large and growing part of it is private holdings (with limited disclosures). As a result, how investors think about "hidden value" will be an increasingly important part of their analysis. Thanks in advance!
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