How much are you down since the inauguration?

[Gregmal]

5 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Thanks for the reply.  Seems you based it on worst case scenario, and leverage from there.  Is it harder to maintain leverage now rates are up?

Nah just dependent on the quality of ideas in front of me. Like Friday I mentioned I’d bought a LSD position in various call options on stuff like C, MGM and the way I structured it, super long dated; 2027+ and OTM, that gave me time and less drawdown risk. Cleared them a few days later. The whole trade was margin funded. So if you just think things through the probability grinder and then stick to your game plan the “margin call” risk really just comes down to how well you execute and whether your thesis was correct or not. While it’s true that sometimes correlations all go to 1, they’re never all one within various windows.

[Paarslaars]

On 4/3/2025 at 5:56 PM, Paarslaars said:

YTD -13%.

 

Lowest point ended up being -20%, now up 10% YTD. Oh fickle market...

[Milu]

41 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

 

Lowest point ended up being -20%, now up 10% YTD. Oh fickle market...

Lowest for me was down about 19%, now down 8%. Trending back 

[james22]

Down?

 

+28%

[Red Lion]

1 hour ago, james22 said:

Down?

 

+28%

Impressive. I’m up around 3% and happy with that since it feels hard fought. 

[Castanza]

Bottomed at -8% but now up 19%. Gotta let that volatility work for you 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

On 4/5/2025 at 2:11 PM, TwoCitiesCapital said:

-3.4% YTD 

 

Largest risk-on positions are Fairfax India, Exor, Fairfax Financial, Altius Minerals, Alibaba, Tencent, and Bitcoin. Have a healthy slug of 30-40% to bond funds too  which is helping as all of those accounts are still positive YTD. 

 

Most of this negative performance actually occurred on Friday when Int'l markets got hit hard too and names like BABA and Fairfax that had been resilient YTD went down 7-10% themselves. I was slightly positive YTD before then. 

 

I only take observations every ~2-weeks when flows come into my 401k that I account for in my performance calcs. There may have been a day or two that were lower than this, but ultimately this was pretty close to the low water mark for me as the accounts were ~2% higher at the next observation period in mid-April when the next paycheck came in. 

 

Now at +9%.  Trimming the equity positions I bought on the dip to move back into short- and intermediate bond funds while we wait for prices to catch down to profits. 

Edited May 12, 2025 by TwoCitiesCapital

[Parsad]

On 5/3/2025 at 9:39 AM, Castanza said:

Bottomed at -8% but now up 19%. Gotta let that volatility work for you 

 

9 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

I only take observations every ~2-weeks when flows come into my 401k that I account for in my performance calcs. There may have been a day or two that were lower than this, but ultimately this was pretty close to the low water mark for me as the accounts were ~2% higher at the next observation period in mid-April when the next paycheck came in. 

 

Now at +9%.  Trimming the equity positions I bought on the dip to move back into short- and intermediate bond funds while we wait for prices to catch down to profits. 

 

Do you guys mean up (+) from the bottom or from where you were before the drop began?  For example, S&P500 is now almost exactly where it was at close December 31st, 2024.  I'm up 18% from the bottom, but only up about 6% YTD.  Cheers!

[TwoCitiesCapital]

31 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

 

Do you guys mean up (+) from the bottom or from where you were before the drop began?  For example, S&P500 is now almost exactly where it was at close December 31st, 2024.  I'm up 18% from the bottom, but only up about 6% YTD.  Cheers!

 

My figures are YTD at the time of each posting. 

[Castanza]

43 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

 

Do you guys mean up (+) from the bottom or from where you were before the drop began?  For example, S&P500 is now almost exactly where it was at close December 31st, 2024.  I'm up 18% from the bottom, but only up about 6% YTD.  Cheers!

My figures were YTD. A few of my positions are on fire ex (CCJ, BX, APH, TOITF, NTDOY, ASML, MSGS, JOE etc.) , plus FFH is at all time highs and I did two turns on the M calls and only have house money left in that play. I quickly raised cash once all this started going on and have deployed most of it in short order over the course of the last month. End of April was prime time with quite a few solid names. Could all change tomorrow with the stroke of a pen. Either way I feel better positioned now with current holdings moving forward both long term and short term cost basis. 

Edited May 13, 2025 by Castanza

[MungerWunger]

up ~ 17% YTD mainly thanks to Constellation family, Tvk and Fairfax

Bottomed at negative 3% YTD or so

Edited May 13, 2025 by MungerWunger

[Red Lion]

Up 9.5% YTD. Feels like I should take some profits, but I'm pretty happy with my current portfolio composition. I will probably continue to trade some short term OTM covered calls around some of my core positions. Trying to build up my NVO position which is still pretty small relative to my top 6 holdings.  

[Milu]

On 5/2/2025 at 8:15 PM, Milu said:

Lowest for me was down about 19%, now down 8%. Trending back 

Just down 2% now, perhaps a nice solid double digit positive return by year end at this rate.

[james22]

+35% YTD

[Sweet]

Not down much now.  Should have been up because i made a big bet when it looked like the tariffs were off initially, only to unwind it with all the chaos that unfolded that weekend.  On this occasion my gut was right, and my head wrong.

[This2ShallPass]

On 4/6/2025 at 3:20 PM, This2ShallPass said:

YTD -3%. Up 5% before these last two days.

 

This thread is impressive to see the overall results from everyone. I do feel once in a while sharing results is helpful, just to see how others are doing and give you some kick in the ass (if needed). 

YTD +15%. Large positions FFH, FIH, Prosus, Eurobank and my growth basket have been doing well. MGM is hopefully next. TSMC was the one medium position I built from scratch during the lows.

[John Hjorth]

On this Thursday, about 3½ hours before North American markets closing, I'm at about minus 6.7 per cent on total portfolio level, YTD, measured in my own [obscure] functional currency DKK, pegged to the EUR.

 

USD/DKK for the the year 2025 :

 

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

In the early years, I paid a lot of attention to it. After finding out that to get some kind of control over it, by currency hedging activity, I now just *shrug*.

[Paarslaars]

Yeah I get it, I am mostly in USD so I have accepted the currency impact will help some years and hurt others but it is ust easier to evaluate the portfolio in EUR. This year it hurts though. 

 

But I am still up 24% YTD... So no complaining.

[Xerxes]

 

Closing the book on the first half of the year on a positive note.

 

2025 1H => 7.37%
2024 => 36.96%
2023 => 24.81%
2022 => -11.48%
2021 => 20.09%
2020 => 11.36%

 

Not including crypto; and excluding of all cash contributions. 

 

Crypto gained 8.5%.

 

S&P500 had a gain of 5.4% in the first half in USD terms

[Malmqky]

Up 23.5% ytd

Edited July 1, 2025 by Malmqky

[John Hjorth]

European investors with USD exposure this year:

 

 

 

[Intelligent_Investor]

Up 21% ytd

[LC]

On 4/3/2025 at 9:39 AM, LC said:

YTD down 3.8% - mostly Aecon, buoyed by FFH

 

+16% YTD as of this morning. Above statement still drives the portfolio: Returns buoyed by FFH, weighed down by Aecon which is down 20% YTD.

 

Next 6-12mos will determine what I do with that Aecon position, as the legacy costs should finally roll off in Q2/Q3 and we will get a glimpse at "clean" financials at the back half of this year / Q1 '26. At least, that is the investment thesis. 

 

Average cost basis is ~$10 USD so it will either be an "OK" return, or hopefully something much better.

 

 

[Sweet]

Well done to those doing well, I’m only slightly up.

 

If I had of stuck to my guns when I bought the dip April, I’d be up a lot.  Kicking myself, instincts were correct.

[Eldad]

Up 17%~. Mr Market is a real piece of work. Time to start getting ready for the next mood swing.