American companies that will benefit from tariffs?

[DooDiligence]

Dominos [let them eat cheap pizza as stagflation takes hold]

 

I'm finding that although I like marking up paper copies, it's easier to cut and paste for a posting of highlights online.

 

Basically, these guys are still doing mid to upper single digit increases in business and profitability. Order counts are up and the goal of pushing people to pickup vs delivery is working. Uber eats is around 3% of business [the platform provides orders only while they use their own employees for delivery].

 

The biggest variable cost is cheese which they get on LT contracts from a single vendor.

 

Finally wrote off the master franchisee in Russia [who filed for bankruptcy after not sending a single payment to DPZ since the invasion of Ukraine]. Also sold better than 50% of their equity in DPC China for $82.9m [went from 18ish million shares to 8ish million].

 

Supply chain is the money maker and they incentivize franchisees to purchase with a 50% pre-tax profit share for those who buy 100% from the system.

 

Buybacks continue at a pace of $270-327m per year.

 

Debt looks large but manageable. CAPEX $113m 2024, $105m 2023, $87m 2022 ($10m +/- per year has gone to company owned stores)

 

edit: I like their honest and open reporting and the fact that they don't try to hide things like the Russian experience or the sale of a huge portion of DPC Dash China. They focus on pizza, tech, franchisee's and free cashflow. Share price just plods along. I wouldn't be surprised if this got bought at some point.

Edited March 30, 2025 by DooDiligence

[no_free_lunch]

Intel could be a huge winner and it is not priced in.  I am not predicting it, way out of my element and I know it but its a cheap option.

[sleepydragon]

FSLR will be one.

[Spekulatius]

2 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

FSLR will be one.

Yes, but tariffs for solar cells from China were already at 50% under Biden and now up another 10% under Trump. I am not sure incremental new tariffs are going to do much here.

[nsx5200]

Along the lines of car repair.  Used car dealerships:

 

https://www.tipranks.com/news/cvna-kmx-azo-stocks-of-used-car-dealers-and-repair-shops-surge-on-news-of-trump-auto-tariffs

"CVNA, KMX, AZO: Stocks of Used Car Dealers and Repair Shops Surge on News of Trump Auto Tariffs"

 

If the tariff look like they will be around for a while, then it would reduce demand from the higher prices.  This would lead to consumer behavior change to look for alternatives like more Uber, Lyft, Zipcar(?), public transportation, or even more escooter/ebikes rental?

 

Other cascading effects may be that delivery services (Doordash, Amazon, UPS, Fedex) will have increased demand with less cars around to use.  IMHO, these might be extrapolating too much though to be actionable unless somebody comes up with more insight.  Anyone?  Anyone?

[Mephistopheles]

At what point does the GOP realize that this tariff madness/DOGE cuts/recession will fuck them over in the midterms? 

 

[DooDiligence]

4 minutes ago, Mephistopheles said:

At what point does the GOP realize that this tariff madness/DOGE cuts/recession will fuck them over in the midterms? 

 

 

I doubt it. Blame everything on the libs. The sheeple will eat it up. Num num num...

[Mephistopheles]

51 minutes ago, DooDiligence said:

 

I doubt it. Blame everything on the libs. The sheeple will eat it up. Num num num...

Idk, recessions really draw swing voters to the other side. Not sure if they can pull that gambit. Especially given that it’s a very visible and obvious cause and affect here….

 

 

[rogermunibond]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-china-japan-agree-promote-regional-trade-trump-tariffs-loom-2025-03-30/

 

"South Korea, China and Japan held their first economic dialogue in five years on Sunday, seeking to facilitate regional trade as the three Asian export powers brace from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs.
The countries' three trade ministers agreed to "closely cooperate for a comprehensive and high-level" talks on a South Korea-Japan-China free trade agreement deal to promote "regional and global trade", according to a statement released after the meeting."
 

How does this help the US strategically?

[rogermunibond]

Long FTZs (Foreign trade zones).

 

https://www.fdiintelligence.com/content/b1dd32d2-7b3a-5b77-99c9-7a521bcb5f54

[rogermunibond]

Pretty good post on where things sit now among markets waiting for tomorrow.  The risk of overconfidence and stagflation are baked into the markets (not sure).  More nuance in tariffs spells relief rally?

 

 

[Sweet]

Surprised we aren’t seeing more of a drop with the Mags.

[DooDiligence]

1 hour ago, Sweet said:

Surprised we aren’t seeing more of a drop with the Mags.

 

That's a pretty simplistic (NTM insulting), take.

Just the kind of thing to firm Euro resolve.

Edited April 1, 2025 by DooDiligence

[Gregmal]

Powell jacking up the cost of the the most expensive essentials such as cars and houses via rates and gambling with a recession …heroic

 

Trump hiking prices via tariffs on select goods, and gambling with a recession….idiotic, insane, etc

 

Classic 

[LC]

Powell managed to curb inflation while minimizing impact on employment. Actually he did (and is doing) a pretty good job if you ask me.

[DooDiligence]

How is one man allowed to dismantle America?

Are there no checks and balances anymore?

 

[Sweet]

8 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Powell jacking up the cost of the the most expensive essentials such as cars and houses via rates and gambling with a recession …heroic

 

Trump hiking prices via tariffs on select goods, and gambling with a recession….idiotic, insane, etc

 

Classic 

 

They are not the same things lol. 

 

These are two different set of circumstances and beget a different set of choices.

 

Can't we just judge things by how they are and not how they are perceived in relation to another?

[rogermunibond]

[tnathan]

If we think this could cause higher inflation there are some banks that will do well, but then we also have the recession risk...

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, tnathan said:

If we think this could cause higher inflation there are some banks that will do well, but then we also have the recession risk...

I don’t think Banks will do that well. In the short term, I expect credit spreads to increase meaningfully. That is not great for banks.

[Hsmpanl]

On 3/28/2025 at 12:51 PM, gfp said:

 

Well I agree with some of that but "this can run for 300k miles" is a total guess!  We have no experience with the longevity of these new turbo engines.  Hope for the best.

 

I drive a 2013 200 series land cruiser.  The lx700h is the only vehicle currently tempting me to make a change.  Nori green overtrail trim would be fine by me.

 

Congrats on the new GX - I think that is a much better vehicle than the land cruiser prado 250 series with the 4cyl.

 

Was it around $66k?

We got a new LC 250 assembled in Japan in December and freaking love it. Bet that LC 200 you’re running is pretty sweet GFP. Can’t go wrong with GX or LC imo. 

[Paarslaars]

On 4/2/2025 at 2:37 AM, Gregmal said:

Powell jacking up the cost of the the most expensive essentials such as cars and houses via rates and gambling with a recession …heroic

 

Trump hiking prices via tariffs on select goods, and gambling with a recession….idiotic, insane, etc

 

Classic 

I think both are stupid but who am I...

[Whensthepaintdry?]

How do you think a company like wcc or arw get impacted here. Companies that are involved in the distribution chain. Are they usually able to pass through costs or do they normally take it on the chin at first?