Fairfax 2025

[Parsad]

5 minutes ago, Haryana said:

Fairfax Earnings: Favorable Industry Conditions and Low Catastrophe Losses Drive a Strong Quarter

 

Like its peers, Fairfax produced a strong third quarter. Industry tailwinds on both the underwriting and investment side remain in place for now, with low catastrophe losses providing a further boost.

https://www.morningstar.com/company-reports/1358371-fairfax-earnings-favorable-industry-conditions-and-low-catastrophe-losses-drive-a-strong-quarter

 

(No credit to management ever and positives always external.)

 

But as soon as he put that out, the stock rebounded...you can always count on Brett Horne!  Cheers!

[Hektor]

Will Fairfax list on any of the US exchanges again?

[gfp]

2 minutes ago, Hektor said:

Will Fairfax list on any of the US exchanges again?

 

Sure, probably on the day they buy Union Pacific and pay partially in stock

[dartmonkey]

2 hours ago, backtothebeach said:

Listening in the Quartr app now, thanks!

Who wants to call a phone number to listen to a conference call, that's so 20th century.

Yahoo is even providing the transcript, via Quartr, for free as far as I can tell: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FFH.TO/earnings/FFH.TO-Q3-2025-earnings_call-369659.html

[Tommm50]

1 hour ago, value_hunter said:

Looks like seller don't care. They just want to push down the stoke price. I noticed that most sellers are "Anonymous" in TMX.

 

 

Are we dealing with the old naked shorting gambit again?

 

[Txvestor]

1 hour ago, Hoodlum said:

If it is Fairfax’s intention to buy back the shares under the TRS, then the timing of that happening would not be based on the share price but rather when there is no better opportunity for their cash.  
 

They could buy back now at $2200 with a lower price, or wait and capture additional earnings before paying more later to buy back at $3k.  It is pretty much a wash either way long term.  It is just showing up in different buckets. 

It's not clear that it is, that's why I'm looking at them as two as separate things.
They talk about it like it's an investment and they apparently do have a tax liability on the gains. So if they buy back shares now at $1500-1700 as they've been doing and then offload the TRS at $2300 for some other use they find for the cash, then it works to the benefit of the shareholders. For example they could decide to use that money to buy out the minority holdings in subs like Allied world etc. 

I think the fact that they didn't offload the TRS despite the share price going over 1800 means they see share prices as value even there. 

[value_hunter]

38 minutes ago, Tommm50 said:

 

 

Are we dealing with the old naked shorting gambit again?

 

What you mean old? Did this happen before?

[Cigarbutt]

4 minutes ago, value_hunter said:

What you mean old? Did this happen before?

https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-31-08/s73108-39.pdf

[Marco Van Basten]

1 hour ago, gfp said:

 

This price Marco.  This price

 

(they said it with their actions, not their words )

I see.   With all due respect, it does not seem as if they are very aggressive.  They seem to be trading at 7-8x net income, which is probably understated since it does not account for appreciation in equity positions such as Eurobank or BIAL.  So given a very small dividend, if they are so bullish, why not be buying shares at a 10% annual rate and not at 5%?  Chubb is buying more than 5% for instance, ACGL & RNR are buying aggressively.  

[Gregmal]

8 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

I see.   With all due respect, it does not seem as if they are very aggressive.  They seem to be trading at 7-8x net income, which is probably understated since it does not account for appreciation in equity positions such as Eurobank or BIAL.  So given a very small dividend, if they are so bullish, why not be buying shares at a 10% annual rate and not at 5%?  Chubb is buying more than 5% for instance, ACGL & RNR are buying aggressively.  

While I am bullish on Fairfax and its one of my core positions, you have to remember, there has always been some overreach and unbridled enthusiasm, which while warranted the last few years, existed for the previous 5-10 as well....

Edited November 7, 2025 by Gregmal

[Santayana]

25 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

I see.   With all due respect, it does not seem as if they are very aggressive.  They seem to be trading at 7-8x net income, which is probably understated since it does not account for appreciation in equity positions such as Eurobank or BIAL.  So given a very small dividend, if they are so bullish, why not be buying shares at a 10% annual rate and not at 5%?  Chubb is buying more than 5% for instance, ACGL & RNR are buying aggressively. 

They purchased about 2.5% of shares outstanding last quarter.  

[value_hunter]

30 minutes ago, Cigarbutt said:

https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-31-08/s73108-39.pdf

It does feel like.

[Daphne]

Feeling muddy?

[73 Reds]

34 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

I see.   With all due respect, it does not seem as if they are very aggressive.  They seem to be trading at 7-8x net income, which is probably understated since it does not account for appreciation in equity positions such as Eurobank or BIAL.  So given a very small dividend, if they are so bullish, why not be buying shares at a 10% annual rate and not at 5%?  Chubb is buying more than 5% for instance, ACGL & RNR are buying aggressively.  

Fairfax has more investment alternatives than Chubb and most other insurers.  Also, while the TRS is still in place, having dry powder to protect the stock price is prudent.

[value_hunter]

8 minutes ago, Daphne said:

Feeling muddy?

The past several days with $100+ CAD rice fluctuation. When drop, it dropped very quickly. The seller seem just want to push down price quickly and not want a good price. Definitely someone are shorting this.

[djokovic1]

52 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

So given a very small dividend, if they are so bullish, why not be buying shares at a 10% annual rate and not at 5%? 

Because they may have better use for their capital ie higher returns. For example, first use of equity should always be to fund premium growth to extent rational (ie with expectation of decent underwriting profit) because that creates float ie leverage with negative cost of capital.

 

But I agree with the sentiment!

Edited November 7, 2025 by djokovic1

[Junior R]

10 minutes ago, value_hunter said:

The past several days with $100+ CAD rice fluctuation. When drop, it dropped very quickly. The seller seem just want to push down price quickly and not want a good price. Definitely someone are shorting this.

thats what I think is happening as insurance stocks and FFH are not trading similarly now...at least good news is a lot of us added more + now FFH can buy without using instructions that was sent out to broker...buyback as many shares as they can before Jan Div payment 

[Thrifty3000]

1 hour ago, Marco Van Basten said:

So given a very small dividend, if they are so bullish, why not be buying shares at a 10% annual rate and not at 5%?

Because they’re facing a very real existential threat playing out over the next two decades,

 

where the cost of repairing/replacing all things insurable will decline precipitously (along with insurance profits),

 

so they are having to diversify into more durable cash streams that will sustain as long as humans; think real estate, food, banking, shipping, mattresses/sleeping. This is why it pays to invest in intelligent/talented capital allocators with well-aligned interests. (And to size this investment accordingly, the way Prem and Wade have demonstrated this year. Be a lot in, but not all in.)

Edited November 7, 2025 by Thrifty3000

[djokovic1]

3 hours ago, Viking said:

On the Q3 conference call Fairfax left lots of bread crumbs for investors who are paying attention... 

 

100% agree. Lot of little pieces of information (more than usual) to pick up on this conference call.

[Hoodlum]

4 hours ago, gfp said:

It's great - they spell out that Q4 is the big quarter for reserve releases.  They spell out the excess of fair value over book value per share.  They spell out the gain that will be recognized when Eurolife closes.  They spell out how unusual it was that they had both bond losses and discounting losses in Q3 when they usually cancel each other out (like they have over the first 9 months taken together).

 

They spell out the prices they are interested in picking up the pace on repurchases.

 

They have all of their capital allocation decisions laid out before them like a menu for the next few years.  The polar opposite of Berkshire's problem.

 

And non-insurance businesses, the ones that make money when insurance doesn't, are starting to show up for the people who don't pay close attention...

 

 

At least now we know that any reserve release would be announced in Q4.  It sounds like this timing of Q4 can be expected every year. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

3 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

I see.   With all due respect, it does not seem as if they are very aggressive.  They seem to be trading at 7-8x net income, which is probably understated since it does not account for appreciation in equity positions such as Eurobank or BIAL.  So given a very small dividend, if they are so bullish, why not be buying shares at a 10% annual rate and not at 5%?  Chubb is buying more than 5% for instance, ACGL & RNR are buying aggressively.  

 

Buying back insurance subs and buying out minority partners in their equity investments are akin to share buybacks. 

 

Buying back Brit and increasing ownership in Gulf Insurance Group are both akin to buybacks - each share fo Fairfax now gets more of the profits from those subsidiaries. Same with transactions like potentially taking KW private and increasing stakes in each of their private equity investments. They decrease minority interests and increase the pass through of profits per share all things equal. 

 

Fairfax has been engaging in both and you have to credit them for both when discussing buybacks. 

[This2ShallPass]

I top ticked Fairfax today. I was buying across a few accounts and ended up with that last $1575 trade. My small 0.5% bump to CoBF

Edited November 8, 2025 by This2ShallPass

[Viking]

5 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said:

I see.   With all due respect, it does not seem as if they are very aggressive.  They seem to be trading at 7-8x net income, which is probably understated since it does not account for appreciation in equity positions such as Eurobank or BIAL.  So given a very small dividend, if they are so bullish, why not be buying shares at a 10% annual rate and not at 5%?  Chubb is buying more than 5% for instance, ACGL & RNR are buying aggressively.  

 

@Marco Van Basten, it looks to me like Fairfax has been pretty aggressive on the stock buyback front over the past 7 years. At the same time, they doubled the size of their insurance business and they have dramatically increased the size of their equity portfolio. They now have 5 income streams gushing cash. 

 

My guess is if the stock stays around current levels, we will see Fairfax continue to take out a meaningful number of shares in the coming months/year. Bottom line, it appears Fairfax has learned to walk (buy back stock) and chew gum (do everything else) at the same time. I like their balanced, shareholder friendly approach. 

 

Chubb is a fine, well run company. With the hard market slowing and their stock cheap, buybacks is a no brainer for them. Same with other P/C insurance companies. This is great news... a significant amount of capital (that being spent on buybacks) is being removed from the insurance market. 

 

PS: It is interesting to note that for Fairfax the average price paid in 2024 ($1,179/share) is already under the current BV ($1,204). Fairfax took out a significant number of shares in 2024. That is exceptional capital allocation. At the time, I am not sure everyone thought Fairfax was getting a good price (taking out shares at a price above BV). My guess is buybacks being done at current prices will also be viewed favourably looking out a couple of years.  

 

Edited November 8, 2025 by Viking

[Parsad]

6 hours ago, Tommm50 said:

 

 

Are we dealing with the old naked shorting gambit again?

 

 

Cannot naked short in Canada.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

5 hours ago, Daphne said:

Feeling muddy?

 

Maybe they are selling...but there is no naked shorting going on.  This is just normal movements in the stock...probably some large institution selling.

 

Usually after the quarterly conference call, it takes a couple of days for the stock to rebound.  Usually after some analyst comes out and raises their guidance.  Cheers!