Tommm50

The reserve triangles show current reserves for each calendar year are less than the original reserves put up that year except 2018. JFan may be referring to the penultimate (I don't often get to use that word) line which shows negative development for several years. This is the current calendar year's change for those prior year's reserves. These years are relatively young and I kinda expect younger years to show increased reserves as they mature. To me the more important comparisons are the what are current reserves for that year vs the initial reserves. By this metric only 2018 shows a modest deterioration. If several years start to show current reserves are more than the initial reserves then that bears watching. Loss reserving has always been the Achilles Heel of P&C insurance companies. You've got to estimate your products cost when you won't know the actual cost for 5 or more years down the road. If you find out you're wrong at the end of that time you not only lose money for that year but possibly for all the intervening years you've made the same mistake. An average insurance company may get some years right and some years wrong but as long as it averages out they continue merrily on their way as they also collect investment income on those reserves. A company that is conservative in their reserving will get all or almost all years where their initial reserves are more than their ultimate payouts. Like Fairfax.

Looks to me like they"re flat or down each year. They have favorable development every year but one, by $200k.

I wonder if they're back at it. A week straight of declines on no news... That's pretty unusual. If so, it seems like they could pick a much easier target, or maybe sheer vindictiveness over Fairfax shining a light on the nest of vipers back in the day?

To me "no moat" basically means nothing special, it can be easily replicated. How would Brett suppose to replicate the global reach, the market position in emerging economies, the diversity of industries, the expertise in bond investing, and longevity and loyalty of staff enjoyed by Fairfax?

Note the premium reductions at Brit relate to trimming their gross and net property cat exposure. I believe this has also happened in other segments. I don't think Fairfax will be hit as hard in the future with Property Cat losses.

I notice a significant difference in the percentage change in the stock price on the OTC U.S. stock and Fairfax on the Canadian exchange. I'd guess it's the forex rate difference between U.S. and Canadian dollars but the seems like a lot. Any comments?

Yeah, I'm hugely over-weighted in Fairfax. I've owned it for over twenty years. It's finally moving as I knew it eventually would. I was waiting for it to crack $1,000 U.S. to pull some of the investment into treasuries. Today it did. My plan is to wait for the year end results and start to siphon money out. Having said that I will keep a large position because I think the market is just starting to catch on and it has a long way to run yet. I believe Buffett once said "If you want to make a fortune, concentrate. If you want to keep a fortune, diversify."

Simply looking to pick up the dividend?

Large volume on FRFHF the last few days, pattern seems to be price rises in the morning session and sells off as the day goes on. Very large volume on FFH.CA today with no movement in price. Any insights into the activity? Related to building a position prior to year end results announcement?

I don't believe lower CR's are driven by higher interest rates, if fact, the opposite. If an insurance company is not making income on the investment side it is forced to try to make it on the underwriting side i.e. lower CR's. I'm not sure the relationship to growth but growth is not as important as profit.

That's kinda odd, those attributes are a plus for Berkshire....

I've owned this stock for over 20 years, this may be the largest single day increase in it's history. And it's just getting started...

Impressive volume today for Fairfax on both the OTC and Toronto Exchange. Maybe they've been reading Vikings posts...

Exactly. I fear they're still doing it. It seems just before every positive quarter announcement the share price edges down so the bump on the news becomes incremental vs eye catching. I promise to stop now.