Best Idea(s) for 2025

[CorpRaider]

I'll take a shot: $MODG spin or sale of Topgolf; Callaway etc. re-rates to more acushnet-like multiple (which I think gives you a little more than total current market cap).

Edited Monday at 03:43 PM by CorpRaider

[formthirteen]

ASML and CELH.

[longlake95]

MATR

[ICUMD]

Googl

[valueventures]

Mine are probably IWG, MATR, and GRUSF. 

[hasilp89]

Zeg and Glv 

[Gregmal]

9 hours ago, CorpRaider said:

I'll take a shot: $MODG spin or sale of Topgolf; Callaway etc. re-rates to more acushnet-like multiple (which I think gives you a little more than total current market cap).

I agree. Dying for standalone Topgolf. Meh on Calloway. 
 

Outside of EBay, didn’t really have a top idea for 2024. 2025, think it’s finally time for MSGE. Buybacks, valuation and balance sheet will allow it to finally do what everyone’s been hoping for since the Sphere separation.

[WayWardCloud]

I went through 2024 almost entirely in passive index funds with the exception of owning GOOGL.

Recently I've added AirBnB as well as a sliver of LVMH.

 

Good luck everyone and thanks for sharing your thoughts!

 

[KPO]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

I agree. Dying for standalone Topgolf. Meh on Calloway. 
 

Outside of EBay, didn’t really have a top idea for 2024. 2025, think it’s finally time for MSGE. Buybacks, valuation and balance sheet will allow it to finally do what everyone’s been hoping for since the Sphere separation.

Whatever the case I need to give you a huge shoutout for your eBay call. I think I’m up like 60% plus dividends thanks to your raising the idea. It was on my radar previously, but you raised it at the perfect time. RTO is another one that actually wasn’t at all on my radar. Appreciate your posts (and not just the JOE ones)! 

[Masterofnone]

T-bills. No ideas. Ask me in April.

[SafetyinNumbers]

I think FFH was mentioned in passing so I will go with my second biggest position Mako Mining MKO.V MAKOF.

 

Mako is a gold producer trading < 3x OpCF and <1x 2028 OpCF. They are taking the FCF and investing it in exploration and building a new mine in Guyana. Gold companies are the furthest thing from quality but they enjoy enormous right tails given that the gold price also enjoys enormous right tail potential. I oversized Mako because I’m a big fan of the management team and the controlling shareholder Wexford Capital. Wexford also created Diamondback Energy (they like animal names) in 2007 and took it public in 2012 as their oil play. Since then it’s compounded at ~24%. Mako is their gold play and the cycle is just beginning. 

 

In full disclosure, I’m on the board of Sailfish Royalty FISH.V which spun out of Mako a few years ago and has a royalty/stream on Mako’s project in Nicaragua. FISH is also controlled by Wexford. I’m excited to see how Mako can compound over the next 5-10 years as every time the deal it will be accretive. The risk of course is on execution and geopolitical which is true for any gold stock.

Edited yesterday at 04:33 AM by SafetyinNumbers

[Gregmal]

11 hours ago, KPO said:

Whatever the case I need to give you a huge shoutout for your eBay call. I think I’m up like 60% plus dividends thanks to your raising the idea. It was on my radar previously, but you raised it at the perfect time. RTO is another one that actually wasn’t at all on my radar. Appreciate your posts (and not just the JOE ones)! 

Haha all good my man. If only they were all as easy as Ebay!

[Malmqky]

Still Nintendo.

 

Everything else I like needs a longer timeframe than one year.

Edited yesterday at 02:39 PM by Malmqky

[villainx]

6 minutes ago, Malmqky said:

Still Nintendo.

 

Everything else I like needs a longer timeframe than one year.

A good Nintendo device may help the stock go bonkers. What’s probability that they’ll release a flop or disappointment? Based on history it’s not impossible. Or does the service part cover some of the worries?

I have a medium position here but it’s something I think about. I think more so with strong support / anticipation for stock and new device. 
 

 

 

[Cod Liver Oil]

Pair trade:

Long Joe at $47

Short MSTR at $405.

 

All the btc skeptics have capitulated (myself included) and Saylor needs a lot more fiber in his diet. 
 

Not investment advice

 

 

Edited 23 hours ago by Cod Liver Oil

[Malmqky]

27 minutes ago, villainx said:

A good Nintendo device may help the stock go bonkers. What’s probability that they’ll release a flop or disappointment? Based on history it’s not impossible. Or does the service part cover some of the worries?

I have a medium position here but it’s something I think about. I think more so with strong support / anticipation for stock and new device. 
 

 

 

 

Switch 2 is an iterative version of the Switch. Everything I wanted in it - backwards compatibility, better specs, not OLED so one can be released later, better joysticks, etc. all seem to be happening. I don't have sales projections, but I think it's a safe bet it won't flop like the Wii-U,etc.

 

Add in continued transition to digital sales, the growing player base, continued monetization of IP (movies, parks, Pokemon even), I think it's a low, low risk situation with good reward.

 

EDIT: Also Yen is cheap.

Edited yesterday at 03:19 PM by Malmqky

[CorpRaider]

14 hours ago, Gregmal said:

I agree. Dying for standalone Topgolf. Meh on Calloway. 
 

Outside of EBay, didn’t really have a top idea for 2024. 2025, think it’s finally time for MSGE. Buybacks, valuation and balance sheet will allow it to finally do what everyone’s been hoping for since the Sphere separation.

Yeah I guess it's a second-place golf equipment outfit (maybe third) in what appears to me to be a slow growth oligopoly but if it's reasonably close to as good a bidness as $GOLF, I'm getting topgolf for free. 

[Mick92]

 

2 hours ago, Malmqky said:

 

Switch 2 is an iterative version of the Switch. Everything I wanted in it - backwards compatibility, better specs, not OLED so one can be released later, better joysticks, etc. all seem to be happening. I don't have sales projections, but I think it's a safe bet it won't flop like the Wii-U,etc.

 

Add in continued transition to digital sales, the growing player base, continued monetization of IP (movies, parks, Pokemon even), I think it's a low, low risk situation with good reward.

 

EDIT: Also Yen is cheap.

 

Yeah, I think the likelihood of a Wii U situation is low. Switch 2 will have continuity with Nintendo accounts and backwards compatibility. Switch 1 is still selling reasonably well for an ancient device so I'd expect demand for the successor to be strong unless Nintendo somehow shits the bed entirely on the pricing.

 

Nintendo have also had a quiet year release wise so they must be loading the gun for the new console. Surely it's 3D Mario on day one but I presume they have a few other big hitters up their sleeve before the end of 2025.

 

Actually my biggest worry for Nintendo in the medium term is whether they can maintain their release cadence while utilising a much more powerful system. Seems like a lot of big publishers are really struggling to get games out the door in the last few years. Sony have always managed by being the place to play all the third party games but Nintendo, at least historically, have lived and died by their first party stuff.

[rogermunibond]

Topgolf (the venue) has like five quarters of declining same-venue sales.

 

Seems destined for a PE firm to buy it.

Edited yesterday at 05:56 PM by rogermunibond

[Malmqky]

1 minute ago, Mick92 said:

 

 

Yeah, I think the likelihood of a Wii U situation is low. Switch 2 will have continuity with Nintendo accounts and backwards compatibility. Switch 1 is still selling reasonably well for an ancient device so I'd expect demand for the successor to be strong unless Nintendo somehow shits the bed entirely on the pricing.

 

Nintendo have also had a quiet year release wise so they must be loading the gun for the new console. Surely it's 3D Mario on day one but I presume they have a few other big hitters up their sleeve before the end of 2025.

 

Actually my biggest worry for Nintendo in the medium term is whether they can maintain their release cadence while utilising a much more powerful system. Seems like a lot of big publishers are really struggling to get games out the door in the last few years. Sony have always managed by being the place to play all the third party games but Nintendo, at least historically, have lived and died by their first party stuff.

 

 

Big publishers have released absolute trash games in general the last few years. @whatstheofficerproblem can probably elaborate.

 

Nintendo actually releases decent stuff. I don't think your last worry is a big issue.

Also, one thing to keep an eye on is 3rd party AAA games on Switch 2.

[Junior R]

3 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

Pair trade:

Long Joe at $47

Short MSTR at $405.

 

All the btc skeptics have capitulated (myself included) and Saylor needs a lot more fiber in his diet. 
 

Not investment advice

 

 

lol with puts or just straight shorting the stock?

[whatstheofficerproblem]

1 hour ago, Malmqky said:

Nintendo actually releases decent stuff.

 

They actually don't. Nintendo is right there with the other companies, trash, generic and overpriced games. They then have the audacity to act like an indie studio. Whatever goodwill Nintendo had with gamers, they have lost by being aggressive with lawsuits. PalWorld is probably multiples better than whatever Nintendo has released in the last 5-6 years.

 

That aside. I think LQDA is my best idea for 2025. They are going to launch Yutrepia in May regardless, this will easily double as we get closer to that launch. Thereafter, given how Yutrepia is better than Tyvaso, this will start to eat up UTHR's market share. An easy $8B stock in the few years which would be ~8x from here.

[Gregmal]

8 minutes ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

 

They actually don't. Nintendo is right there with the other companies, trash, generic and overpriced games. They then have the audacity to act like an indie studio. Whatever goodwill Nintendo had with gamers, they have lost by being aggressive with lawsuits. PalWorld is probably multiples better than whatever Nintendo has released in the last 5-6 years.

 

That aside. I think LQDA is my best idea for 2025. They are going to launch Yutrepia in May regardless, this will easily double as we get closer to that launch. Thereafter, given how Yutrepia is better than Tyvaso, this will start to eat up UTHR's market share. An easy $8B stock in the few years which would be ~8x from here.

Nintendos core market is family friendly entertainment and mainly younger kids. Which of these have they alienated by going after pirated games geared toward high school and college kids? 

[Malmqky]

10 minutes ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

 

They actually don't. Nintendo is right there with the other companies, trash, generic and overpriced games. They then have the audacity to act like an indie studio. Whatever goodwill Nintendo had with gamers, they have lost by being aggressive with lawsuits. PalWorld is probably multiples better than whatever Nintendo has released in the last 5-6 years.

 

That aside. I think LQDA is my best idea for 2025. They are going to launch Yutrepia in May regardless, this will easily double as we get closer to that launch. Thereafter, given how Yutrepia is better than Tyvaso, this will start to eat up UTHR's market share. An easy $8B stock in the few years which would be ~8x from here.

I don’t think the average gamer really cares about Nintendos lawsuits. I know plenty and have brought this up before. Then factor in Nintendo’s primary audience.

 

Nintendo protects its IP and I like that as an investor. By protect I also mean they don’t alienate their fans with disrespecting the IP, implementing a million micro transactions, etc.
 

I think their games are decent, much better than some of the stuff big studios have put out lately.

[Castanza]

23 minutes ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

 

They actually don't. Nintendo is right there with the other companies, trash, generic and overpriced games. They then have the audacity to act like an indie studio. Whatever goodwill Nintendo had with gamers, they have lost by being aggressive with lawsuits. PalWorld is probably multiples better than whatever Nintendo has released in the last 5-6 years.

 

That aside. I think LQDA is my best idea for 2025. They are going to launch Yutrepia in May regardless, this will easily double as we get closer to that launch. Thereafter, given how Yutrepia is better than Tyvaso, this will start to eat up UTHR's market share. An easy $8B stock in the few years which would be ~8x from here.

 

Your personal anger with Nintendo is causing you to throw the baby out with the bathwater. Pokemon is one franchise (albeit massive). However, if you're a shareholder why would you not want your company to aggressively protect their IP? Dragon Quest never pursuing a lawsuit against Nintendo is water under a bridge. The creator of Pokemon was also never shy about discussing where they got inspiration so who knows if the owners/creators of Dragon Quest ever cared. Yuji Horii has never discussed the topic from what I understand. Would you not invest in Apple because Jobs gets more cred and fame than Woz? Or MSFT because Gates bought a rip off of Gary Kildall and subsequently build Microsoft from there?  

 

 

 

also....

 

"Good artists, copy, great artists steal." - Pablo Picasso