Best Idea(s) for 2025

[ValueMaven]

TPL at $1200

[yesman182]

5 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

My best idea for 2025 was giving Value Line another shot, their new digital booklets are incredible.

How much does it cost? Have you checked what you can get from the library for free? My library has some new online booklets that I can view from home. I can’t print them, however. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

On 12/16/2024 at 11:32 PM, SafetyinNumbers said:

I think FFH was mentioned in passing so I will go with my second biggest position Mako Mining MKO.V MAKOF.

 

Mako is a gold producer trading < 3x OpCF and <1x 2028 OpCF. They are taking the FCF and investing it in exploration and building a new mine in Guyana. Gold companies are the furthest thing from quality but they enjoy enormous right tails given that the gold price also enjoys enormous right tail potential. I oversized Mako because I’m a big fan of the management team and the controlling shareholder Wexford Capital. Wexford also created Diamondback Energy (they like animal names) in 2007 and took it public in 2012 as their oil play. Since then it’s compounded at ~24%. Mako is their gold play and the cycle is just beginning. 

 

In full disclosure, I’m on the board of Sailfish Royalty FISH.V which spun out of Mako a few years ago and has a royalty/stream on Mako’s project in Nicaragua. FISH is also controlled by Wexford. I’m excited to see how Mako can compound over the next 5-10 years as every time the deal it will be accretive. The risk of course is on execution and geopolitical which is true for any gold stock.

I’m sure most people passed on the gold stock idea (most people invest only in quality and junior gold stocks are the furthest thing from quality) but MKO just announced a deal in Arizona risking only $5-10m to buy an operating gold mine out of bankruptcy. If they are able to optimize the mine it could double the existing corporate production run rate within 6-12 months. Given it’s less than <3x OpCF without it that’s a big improvement.
 

The stock is up a bit since the announcement but this is a play for the cycle with a small amount of capital as gold mining has plenty of execution and geopolitical risk but the upside is multiples of capital given the right tails on production, resource size and the gold price.

[toughcall]

On 1/4/2025 at 12:28 AM, ValueMaven said:

TPL at $1200

Interesting company. What metrics do you look at for valuation? Looks pricy looking at FCF?

[Dinar]

On 1/3/2025 at 10:33 PM, SafetyinNumbers said:

I’m sure most people passed on the gold stock idea (most people invest only in quality and junior gold stocks are the furthest thing from quality) but MKO just announced a deal in Arizona risking only $5-10m to buy an operating gold mine out of bankruptcy. If they are able to optimize the mine it could double the existing corporate production run rate within 6-12 months. Given it’s less than <3x OpCF without it that’s a big improvement.
 

The stock is up a bit since the announcement but this is a play for the cycle with a small amount of capital as gold mining has plenty of execution and geopolitical risk but the upside is multiples of capital given the right tails on production, resource size and the gold price.

Why do you think they have been able to acquire the Guyana property so cheaply compared to their estimate of NAV?  Thank you,

[SafetyinNumbers]

31 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Why do you think they have been able to acquire the Guyana property so cheaply compared to their estimate of NAV?  Thank you,

There are almost no investors for small scale mines (<100k oz/yr production’ so GXS would not have been able to raise capital at a price that didn’t dilute the project considerably. By doing a stock deal, GXS shareholders get to participate in the upside. 

[sleepydragon]

Nobody talking about FNMA.. already up 49% in 2025

[DooDiligence]

27 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

Nobody talking about FNMA.. already up 49% in 2025

 

Ackman hype?

[thowed]

On 1/3/2025 at 11:28 PM, ValueMaven said:

TPL at $1200

 

@ValueMaven Did you buy any today?

[hasilp89]

On 12/29/2024 at 10:42 PM, Dinar said:

b) Heidelberg Materials is selling at 9.5x 2025 EPS, 8.5x 2026 EPS, and 7.75x 2027 EPS.   What do you think the returns here will be?  CRH has had numerous insider buys over the past 2 years, including a USD 2MM by director at 99 in December and another $150K by another director at 98+ at the end of December.

 

On 12/30/2024 at 8:13 AM, Dalal.Holdings said:

b) High Dependent on Eurozone economic growth, a cyclical, and has already had a big run up

38% YTD nice call @Dinar

[Dave86ch]

I wrote an article on the reasoning behind my long-term holdings.

 

https://dscompounding.com/2025/03/13/esc/

 

Edited March 15, 2025 by Dave86ch

[Paarslaars]

1 hour ago, Dave86ch said:

I wrote an article on the reasoning behind my long-term holdings.

 

https://dscompounding.com/2025/03/13/esc/

 

Utah dropped the BTC reserve though, just fyi on that graph.

[Libs]

9 hours ago, Dave86ch said:

I wrote an article on the reasoning behind my long-term holdings.

 

https://dscompounding.com/2025/03/13/esc/

 

 

Thanks for sharing. If I may ask, how early did you start buying BTC? And at what price?

 

 

[kh812000]

SNDK

[Dave86ch]

13 hours ago, Libs said:

 

Thanks for sharing. If I may ask, how early did you start buying BTC? And at what price?

 

 

I bought a small amount at 3,000, but I gained real confidence when it retraced to 20,000 because that’s when I started digging deeper into the topic.

 

I still buy at this price because I understand that it's a monetary technology built on a protocol developed and maintained by countless smart people. The network's expansion—both physically and in terms of mindshare—is broad enough to give it resilience and traction.

 

Yesterday, while reading Durant's books on history, I realized how new land creates new trade routes, and trade routes, in turn, demand new monetary systems.

 

It’s fascinating how interconnected these things are.

 

I also understand that Europe isn’t heading in the right direction, and owning a bearer asset with a strong network—difficult to seize and highly portable—can be not just an investment but also a defensive strategy in a changing world.

 

 

 

Edited March 16, 2025 by Dave86ch

[Milu]

2 hours ago, Dave86ch said:

I bought a small amount at 3,000, but I gained real confidence when it retraced to 20,000 because that’s when I started digging deeper into the topic.

 

I still buy at this price because I understand that it's a monetary technology built on a protocol developed and maintained by countless smart people. The network's expansion—both physically and in terms of mindshare—is broad enough to give it resilience and traction.

 

Yesterday, while reading Durant's books on history, I realized how new land creates new trade routes, and trade routes, in turn, demand new monetary systems.

 

It’s fascinating how interconnected these things are.

 

I also understand that Europe isn’t heading in the right direction, and owning a bearer asset with a strong network—difficult to seize and highly portable—can be not just an investment but also a defensive strategy in a changing world.

 

 

 

Do you live in Europe? Are you holding your BTC on a hardware wallet or via some other means?

[Dave86ch]

19 hours ago, Milu said:

Do you live in Europe? Are you holding your BTC on a hardware wallet or via some other means?

Europe, HW wallet.

Indeed, I also wrote an article (linked at the end) on UTXOs at the end of the article.

In my opinion, holding Bitcoin in self-custody is essential.

 

 

 

Edited March 17, 2025 by Dave86ch

[Milu]

4 hours ago, Dave86ch said:

Europe, HW wallet.

Indeed, I also wrote an article (linked at the end) on UTXOs at the end of the article.

In my opinion, holding Bitcoin in self-custody is essential.

 

 

 

Same for me, live in Europe also hw wallet. I’m curious how long self custody will be permitted and will EU ever try to clamp down and try to pressure people back into the system. Last time I sent bitcoin from the exchange to wallet I had to confirm I was the owner of the wallet so I assume there is some degree of monitoring going on by the regulators.

[Dave86ch]

19 hours ago, Milu said:

Same for me, live in Europe also hw wallet. I’m curious how long self custody will be permitted and will EU ever try to clamp down and try to pressure people back into the system. Last time I sent bitcoin from the exchange to wallet I had to confirm I was the owner of the wallet so I assume there is some degree of monitoring going on by the regulators.

As an open-source project and native digital money, Bitcoin will always provide a solution, especially when the shit hits the fan.

 

CoinJoins and other tools already exist to help users evade state control.

I'm studying Lightning, and it's crazy how powerful it is and the level of privacy it unlocks.

 

[tnathan]

On 3/15/2025 at 7:44 PM, kh812000 said:

SNDK

Any thoughts as of now?

[kh812000]

On 4/6/2025 at 7:34 AM, tnathan said:

mAny thoughts as of now?

Still great long term if you can stomach the massive coming volatility both economically and stockwise especially for a relatively thinly traded security. 

 

However, if Trump does not make deals wrt tariffs soon, demand is falling across the board for all goods generally, and specifically, for SNDK, electronics sales will plummet due to the 100% china tariffs and general global uncertainty.... a negative for NAND flash.  Multiple SMEs are hemorrhaging cash from surprise tariffs on imports/exports and are deer-in-headlights wrt factory planning/production.  Massive stress is building in treasury markets and could lead to a potentially disastrous liquidity crisis.... There is 0 confidence in any revenue forecasting by any company.

 

Cash is your friend in this mkt.   

 

 

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

8 minutes ago, kh812000 said:

Still great long term if you can stomach the massive coming volatility both economically and stockwise especially for a relatively thinly traded security. 

 

However, if Trump does not make deals wrt tariffs soon, demand is falling across the board for all goods generally, and specifically, for SNDK, electronics sales will plummet due to the 100% china tariffs and general global uncertainty.... a negative for NAND flash.  Multiple SMEs are hemorrhaging cash from surprise tariffs on imports/exports and are deer-in-headlights wrt factory planning/production.  Massive stress is building in treasury markets and could lead to a potentially disastrous liquidity crisis.... There is 0 confidence in any revenue forecasting by any company.

 

Cash is your friend in this mkt.   

Like all commodity memory business SNDK is deeply cyclical and will lose lots of money in a real exonomic downturn.

[kh812000]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Like all commodity memory business SNDK is deeply cyclical and will lose lots of money in a real exonomic downturn.

NAND memory has been in a downturn for a few years now.  Its already rationalized capacity and cut capital spend significantly.  But yes, if the economy goes into a tailspin, SNDK will not be immune but no different than all the of the industries... 

[frommi]

My best ideas:
Evolution AB is a fast grower and trades at a forward P/E of 10, no tariff impact
BTI trades for a forward P/E of 8, profits from tariffs because chinese vapes are cut off from the US market and the new Velo+ (up >300% YoY according to latest Nielsen data) is taking marketshare from Zyn in the rapidly growing Nicotine pouche market.

[SafetyinNumbers]

On 12/16/2024 at 11:32 PM, SafetyinNumbers said:

I think FFH was mentioned in passing so I will go with my second biggest position Mako Mining MKO.V MAKOF.

 

Mako is a gold producer trading < 3x OpCF and <1x 2028 OpCF. They are taking the FCF and investing it in exploration and building a new mine in Guyana. Gold companies are the furthest thing from quality but they enjoy enormous right tails given that the gold price also enjoys enormous right tail potential. I oversized Mako because I’m a big fan of the management team and the controlling shareholder Wexford Capital. Wexford also created Diamondback Energy (they like animal names) in 2007 and took it public in 2012 as their oil play. Since then it’s compounded at ~24%. Mako is their gold play and the cycle is just beginning. 

 

In full disclosure, I’m on the board of Sailfish Royalty FISH.V which spun out of Mako a few years ago and has a royalty/stream on Mako’s project in Nicaragua. FISH is also controlled by Wexford. I’m excited to see how Mako can compound over the next 5-10 years as every time the deal it will be accretive. The risk of course is on execution and geopolitical which is true for any gold stock.

Mako has worked out pretty well so far this year but arguably it’s much cheaper than it was when this was originally posted because a) the gold price is up a lot and b) MKO picked up a gold mine in Arizona for almost free by acquiring it out of bankruptcy. 
 

An excellent investor and skilled investing communicator just wrote it up for his substack. If you are a Canadian value investor, chances are you already subscribe but if you don’t you should even if you will never buy a gold stock (probably 99.9% of investors so you are in the majority by a wide margin!). 
 

The substack also discusses Sailfish Royalty FISH.V which has a common controlling shareholder with Mako. I am on the BOD of FISH and my position is up to date on SEDI (although easiest to check via CEO.ca).
 

https://open.substack.com/pub/canadianvaluestocks/p/mako-mining-and-sailfish-royalties?r=ecc87&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false

 

 

Edited May 13, 2025 by SafetyinNumbers