Best Idea(s) for 2025

[Luke]

28 minutes ago, Castanza said:

 

Your personal anger with Nintendo is causing you to throw the baby out with the bathwater. Pokemon is one franchise (albeit massive). However, if you're a shareholder why would you not want your company to aggressively protect their IP? Dragon Quest never pursuing a lawsuit against Nintendo is water under a bridge. The creator of Pokemon was also never shy about discussing where they got inspiration so who knows if the owners/creators of Dragon Quest ever cared. Yuji Horii has never discussed the topic from what I understand. Would you not invest in Apple because Jobs gets more cred and fame than Woz? Or MSFT because Gates bought a rip off of Gary Kildall and subsequently build Microsoft from there?  

 

 

 

also....

 

"Good artists, copy, great artists steal." - Pablo Picasso 

 

 

Yeah @whatstheofficerproblem, piracy scene is a nieche, many many people just buy the games online and enjoy them. Id be concerned if it grows significantly bigger, has to be monitored.

[Castanza]

11 minutes ago, Luke said:

Yeah @whatstheofficerproblem, piracy scene is a nieche, many many people just buy the games online and enjoy them. Id be concerned if it grows significantly bigger, has to be monitored.

 

Kids care about two things....is it fun and do my friends play? 

[brobro777]

1 hour ago, Luke said:

Yeah @whatstheofficerproblem, piracy scene is a nieche, many many people just buy the games online and enjoy them. Id be concerned if it grows significantly bigger, has to be monitored.

 

Yea my buddy and his sons are gonna buy a ton of Nintendo stuff regardless of lawsuits

 

Probably gonna go to Super Mario Theme Park soon too

 

 

[John Hjorth]

8 hours ago, Cod Liver Oil said:

...  and Saylor needs a lot more fiber in his diet. 
 

Not investment advice

 

@Cod Liver Oil,

 

This is just so good, it's almost killing me! 

[bizaro86]

7 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

@Cod Liver Oil,

 

This is just so good, it's almost killing me! 

+1 

 

I'm actively trying to quit reading the MSTR thread because every time I want to put on long 2x BTC//short 1x MSTR type trade. But Saylor needing Fibre was post-of-the-year calibre.

[MMM20]

On 12/12/2024 at 9:56 AM, MMM20 said:

 

I am buying MSOS for a bounce. I am also planning to buy and hold more TOKE longer term b/c I really like the portfolio (see below) and the manager has fully waived fees until they hit $50mm in AUM. I have my own favorites (I've owned GLASF common and series B pref/warrants for ~2.5 years and averaged up a bit in the common at ~$7 this year) but I think the group as a whole is priced to high returns right now. I also own Couche-Tard and Philip Morris on their own merits as cheap/fair compounders with misunderstood tailwinds but partly b/c I think they'll also benefit from US cannabis reform at some point.

 

My bullishness is dampened by the fact that I know I can be contrarian to a fault - and that I'm not personally comfortable with a big position in this sector for more than a month or so given the clear and obvious left tail risks like a DOJ crackdown. I figured I'd share anyway. Now watch MSTR blow me (and old man Buffett) away.

 

 

 

 

 

 

One of the smaller players, Vireo Growth (~3.3% of TOKE), is +170% today after announcing transformative combination at ~4-5x EBITDA https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/12/18/2998880/0/en/Vireo-Growth-Inc-Announces-75-Million-Financing-and-Acquisitions-of-Four-Single-State-Operators.html 

 

Not trying to turn this into a cannabis thread but I think it speaks to how bombed out and cheap the sector is.

 

[Xerxes]

I admit in contrast to last year 2024, there are barely any high conviction ideas in this thread for 2025

 

(Except some stuff on MSTR)

 

speaks to lofty valuations 

[frommi]

Evolution AB, you rarely can buy a company growing at 10-15%/year for a P/E <15. It has a large moat in its sector and the sector is also projected to grow double digits. It had lots of short term headwinds (tax rate, political turmoil in Georgia, Cyber attacks in Asia) this year.
BATS/IMB are also still very cheap.

Edited December 18 by frommi

[Luke]

46 minutes ago, frommi said:

Evolution AB, you rarely can buy a company growing at 10-15%/year for a P/E <15. It has a large moat in its sector and the sector is also projected to grow double digits. It had lots of short term headwinds (tax rate, political turmoil in Georgia, Cyber attacks in Asia) this year.
BATS/IMB are also still very cheap.

good you remind me of the stock, its sitting in my account waiting to be added to next time i get cash

[whatstheofficerproblem]

Thanks all for the comments on Nintendo. My personal feelings aside, I genuinely think Nintendo as a stock is a buy. I do agree the piracy scene is niche, but I also stand on the statement that their games have been very mediocre to say the least.

 

PalWorld was an idea they could have easily implemented themselves. They have an option to develop a killer Open World game with the Nintendo franchise, yet they don't. They play it way too safe with their IPs and are shy about pouring money into Game Freak which is their studio.

 

If TTWO was shy about funding R* we wouldn't have GTA today. I think there is a big TAM in Video Game market that they can capture, especially given the fame of their IP but they are holding themselves back.

[Luke]

2 minutes ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Thanks all for the comments on Nintendo. My personal feelings aside, I genuinely think Nintendo as a stock is a buy. I do agree the piracy scene is niche, but I also stand on the statement that their games have been very mediocre to say the least.

 

PalWorld was an idea they could have easily implemented themselves. They have an option to develop a killer Open World game with the Nintendo franchise, yet they don't. They play it way too safe with their IPs and are shy about pouring money into Game Freak which is their studio.

 

If TTWO was shy about funding R* we wouldn't have GTA today. I think there is a big TAM in Video Game market that they can capture, especially given the fame of their IP but they are holding themselves back.

Yeah i get it, i played some of their recent games and i know developers that are better. Still, they are riding a massive wave of fans all over the world, parents, kids and adults

[Malmqky]

6 minutes ago, whatstheofficerproblem said:

Thanks all for the comments on Nintendo. My personal feelings aside, I genuinely think Nintendo as a stock is a buy. I do agree the piracy scene is niche, but I also stand on the statement that their games have been very mediocre to say the least.

 

PalWorld was an idea they could have easily implemented themselves. They have an option to develop a killer Open World game with the Nintendo franchise, yet they don't. They play it way too safe with their IPs and are shy about pouring money into Game Freak which is their studio.

 

If TTWO was shy about funding R* we wouldn't have GTA today. I think there is a big TAM in Video Game market that they can capture, especially given the fame of their IP but they are holding themselves back.

 

I do agree with this. Multiplayer, open-world pokemon would be interested for example.

 

I will take what Nintendo puts out over a half-finished, micro-transaction heavy, no soul game any day though.

[StevieV]

JOE's 2024 share price performance makes it a good pick for 2025.  Looks like it will start off 2025 at or near 52 week lows.  The stock had a big run in 2020 and pretty much has gone nowhere over the last 4 years.  No reason that the share price can't continue to languish in 2025, but a good starting point.

 

My 2024 picks were a mixed bag of performance (my 2024 post in italics below).  IDT, SPHR, PX and BRDG.  IDT the company had a good year and so did the stock price.  BRDG was the laggard.  The market didn't price in AUM growth and BRDG didn't deliver AUM growth.

 

 

IDT - Remains undervalued after litigation win.

 

SPHR - I think filling in the schedule with new acts will be a significant boost.  The success of U2 should prove out the model to other acts.  A 2nd sphere could also be a big catalyst if the company negotiates a company friendly deal (i.e., capital light).

 

PX and BRDG - Have lagged the alts rally.  BRDG is lagging because it's real estate and will need to show some fundraising life.  However, as per usual, the funds have long lock-ups.  BRDG has bounced off its lows, but still is of BRDG isn't pricing in much if any growth in AUM. 

[brobro777]

6 hours ago, StevieV said:

JOE's 2024 share price performance makes it a good pick for 2025.  Looks like it will start off 2025 at or near 52 week lows.  The stock had a big run in 2020 and pretty much has gone nowhere over the last 4 years.  No reason that the share price can't continue to languish in 2025, but a good starting point.

 

My 2024 picks were a mixed bag of performance (my 2024 post in italics below).  IDT, SPHR, PX and BRDG.  IDT the company had a good year and so did the stock price.  BRDG was the laggard.  The market didn't price in AUM growth and BRDG didn't deliver AUM growth.

 

 

IDT - Remains undervalued after litigation win.

 

SPHR - I think filling in the schedule with new acts will be a significant boost.  The success of U2 should prove out the model to other acts.  A 2nd sphere could also be a big catalyst if the company negotiates a company friendly deal (i.e., capital light).

 

PX and BRDG - Have lagged the alts rally.  BRDG is lagging because it's real estate and will need to show some fundraising life.  However, as per usual, the funds have long lock-ups.  BRDG has bounced off its lows, but still is of BRDG isn't pricing in much if any growth in AUM. 

 

Yea 2024 -26% YTD for JOE probably means good things for 2025

 

[bargainman]

Any ideas for managing/beating inflation?

[Blake Hampton]

8 hours ago, bargainman said:

Any ideas for managing/beating inflation?

My best ideas are oil and T-bills.

[MMM20]

10 hours ago, bargainman said:

Any ideas for managing/beating inflation?

With real rates still positive and the yield curve so flat (and US valuations where they are), cash and short term treasuries are one way to handle it. I sleep well at night owning PM which has pricing power, is a cash cow business plus a hypergrowth startup (Zyn), and still trades at a cheap to fair valuation. PM would also benefit from a weaker dollar which is inherently diversifying for me.

And I always come back to this: “The best thing you can do is to be exceptionally good at something,” the 91-year-old said Saturday. Mentioning professions like doctors and lawyers as examples, Buffett said that ”[people] are going to give you some of what they produce in exchange for what you deliver.” Buffett added that skills, unlike currency, are inflation-proof. If you have a skill that is in demand, it will remain in demand no matter what the dollar is worth. “Whatever abilities you have can’t be taken away from you. They can’t actually be inflated away from you,” he said. “The best investment by far is anything that develops yourself, and it’s not taxed at all.”

 

Edited Saturday at 03:18 PM by MMM20

[Xerxes]

15 minutes ago, MMM20 said:

 “The best thing you can do is to be exceptionally good at something,” the 91-year-old said Saturday. Mentioning professions like doctors and lawyers as examples, Buffett said that ”[people] are going to give you some of what they produce in exchange for what you deliver.” Buffett added that skills, unlike currency, are inflation-proof. If you have a skill that is in demand, it will remain in demand no matter what the dollar is worth. “Whatever abilities you have can’t be taken away from you. They can’t actually be inflated away from you,” he said. “The best investment by far is anything that develops yourself, and it’s not taxed at all.”

 

 

thanks. I remember this vividly during the I think 2022 AGM. 
 

The audience was looking for a stock ticker, or sector to beat inflation, he gave them instead words of wisdom. 

[DooDiligence]

On 12/21/2024 at 9:14 AM, MMM20 said:

With real rates still positive and the yield curve so flat (and US valuations where they are), cash and short term treasuries are one way to handle it. I sleep well at night owning PM which has pricing power, is a cash cow business plus a hypergrowth startup (Zyn), and still trades at a cheap to fair valuation. PM would also benefit from a weaker dollar which is inherently diversifying for me.

And I always come back to this: “The best thing you can do is to be exceptionally good at something,” the 91-year-old said Saturday. Mentioning professions like doctors and lawyers as examples, Buffett said that ”[people] are going to give you some of what they produce in exchange for what you deliver.” Buffett added that skills, unlike currency, are inflation-proof. If you have a skill that is in demand, it will remain in demand no matter what the dollar is worth. “Whatever abilities you have can’t be taken away from you. They can’t actually be inflated away from you,” he said. “The best investment by far is anything that develops yourself, and it’s not taxed at all.”

 

 

 

GOAT

Edited Sunday at 05:45 PM by DooDiligence

[MMM20]

On 12/21/2024 at 10:31 AM, Xerxes said:

The audience was looking for a stock ticker

 

One good thing about not being Buffett is i can share my journal here and the WSJ won’t put it on the front page the 40%+ of the time im wrong. Also, no reputational risk in owning tobacco stocks. I like Philip Morris!

 

Edited Monday at 01:49 PM by MMM20

[sleepydragon]

I doubled my Fannie mae positions post election 

also, oxy and cvx