President-Elect Trump trades

[Spekulatius]

Interesting to read this and it sounds like Bernie or AOC said it, but it was in fact Trump. Bernie and AOC would have been more articulate.

It‘s also total nonsense. Drug companies make way more money than the PBM (the guys Trump doesn’t who they are  but he does not they are rich ).

 

Imagine sitting there as an Pharma exec and just hope he remains clueless for the time being thinking he can squeeze the PBM and make drugs much cheaper that way. It’s Monty Python level comedy.

 

 

[Blake Hampton]

14 minutes ago, Red Lion said:

 

Isn't this the entirety of modern United States financial history summed up right here? We're in a state of perpetual inflation except when we are having a fiscal crisis. 

Inflation exceeding 5% is quite rare and debt to GDP hasn’t been this high since WW2. I wouldn’t say modern, but I do think we have seen something economically similar before. Problem is there wasn’t the technology then as there is now.
 

It’s a completely different game.

Edited December 17 by Blake Hampton

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, mcliu said:

 

Can't wait for this Trudeau nightmare to end.

Trudeau should resigned after the election if he had any spine but continue to muddle along without a real mandate. Same situation than in Germany also there will be elections now early next year. 

[Dalal.Holdings]

Quote

Carlo Dade, director of trade and trade infrastructure at the Canada West Foundation, a think-tank, said a snap election could be called after Christmas to give the country a government with a mandate to deal with Trump. “Trump has been bashing Trudeau. Let’s get it over with now, there’s a lot of work to do,” Dade said.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/06a51169-79f5-42b4-8117-4a483b8efe24

 

It really is amazing, all it took was for Trump to be elected (not even take office yet), and these garbage governments are collapsing left and right across Europe (I consider Canada part of Europe now given it has similar levels and kinds of dysfunction).

[John Hjorth]

19 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

https://www.ft.com/content/06a51169-79f5-42b4-8117-4a483b8efe24

 

It really is amazing, all it took was for Trump to be elected (not even take office yet), and these garbage governments are collapsing left and right across Europe (I consider Canada part of Europe now given it has similar levels and kinds of dysfunction).

 

Here, @Dalal.Holdings, you are simply taking this thing too far, Canada for your part considered a part of Europe by your yardstick. 

 

 You got to be kidding us with this nonsense

[Dalal.Holdings]

33 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Here, @Dalal.Holdings, you are simply taking this thing too far, Canada for your part considered a part of Europe by your yardstick. 

 

 You got to be kidding us with this nonsense

I Lol’d at writing that, but Canada has all the problems of Europe—uncontrolled immigration/open borders, migrants who don’t assimilate well, leftist virtue signaling from the top, wokeism galore, environmental nutjobs in power, windfall profit taxes on energy sector, debanking truckers/censorship of conservatives and anti-free speech policies, poor tech innovation and not enough startups/unicorns, not enough defense spending, poor GDP growth, poor productivity growth, etc 

 

Sounds like the prospect of a Trump Presidency is forcing them to get their act together—just like Europe! 

Remind me whose picture is on Canadian money?

Edited December 17 by Dalal.Holdings

[mcliu]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Trudeau should resigned after the election if he had any spine but continue to muddle along without a real mandate. Same situation than in Germany also there will be elections now early next year. 

JT has the narcissism of Trump without the brains, skills and balls.

If JT doesn't leave soon, I'm ok with Canada joining the US.

[dealraker]

9 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

I Lol’d at writing that, but Canada has all the problems of Europe—uncontrolled immigration/open borders, migrants who don’t assimilate well, leftist virtue signaling from the top, wokeism galore, environmental nutjobs in power, windfall profit taxes on energy sector, debanking truckers/censorship of conservatives and anti-free speech policies, poor tech innovation and not enough startups/unicorns, not enough defense spending, poor GDP growth, poor productivity growth, etc 

 

Sounds like the prospect of a Trump Presidency is forcing them to get their act together—just like Europe! 

Remind me whose picture is on Canadian money?

Dang...T ain't even in office and all the world's problems are already fixed!

 

Go Trump!   The ultimate fixer!

[Spooky]

11 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

https://www.ft.com/content/06a51169-79f5-42b4-8117-4a483b8efe24

 

It really is amazing, all it took was for Trump to be elected (not even take office yet), and these garbage governments are collapsing left and right across Europe (I consider Canada part of Europe now given it has similar levels and kinds of dysfunction).

 

One thing has nothing to do with the other. Trudeau was dead politically a long time ago.

[Dinar]

2 hours ago, dealraker said:

Dang...T ain't even in office and all the world's problems are already fixed!

 

Go Trump!   The ultimate fixer!

Charlie, off-topic, but did you see several insiders buying stock in your favorite - NSC?

[dealraker]

3 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Charlie, off-topic, but did you see several insiders buying stock in your favorite - NSC?

No...but I will check it out.  I had as posted liquidated my 401-K from the 5 stocks (including NSC, GD, LHX, RTX) on the November 11 run-up - but of course hold the NSC I inherited.  I was thinking that today may be a start to re-investing.  Thanks.  I think, given some volumes, the rails are loaded for EPS gains.  Volumes are the issue, I don't think pricing or OR's are the ticket to the future for the rails.

[dealraker]

31 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Charlie, off-topic, but did you see several insiders buying stock in your favorite - NSC?

On this note Dinar...it seems to me that spending and capital are going to things like crypto, travel, technology related...and not towards the things that make the rails hum with volumes.  Of course that can change and maybe the prices of the stocks are reflecting it all.   

[james22]

 

[Blake Hampton]

Charles Akre:

The Value of Cash

To us, the value of cash has very little, if anything, to do with the return one earns on it directly. Rather, the investment value of cash is fortitude. In a bear market, cash is the “thin green line” that separates crisis from opportunity. This view is expressed well by Morgan Housel in his book The Psychology of Money:

No one wants to hold cash during a bull market. They want to own assets that go up a lot. You look and feel conservative holding cash during a bull market, because you become acutely aware of how much return you’re giving up by not owning the good stuff.

But if that cash prevents you from having to sell your stocks during a bear market, the actual return you earned on that cash is not 1% a year–it could be many multiples of that, because preventing one desperate, ill-timed stock sale can do more for your lifetime returns than picking dozens of big-time winners.

In other words, the value of cash is not the return it provides but the behavior it promotes. Because long-term investment success has more to do with behavior than just about anything else, we believe investors that are willing to hold or accumulate cash when valuations are frothy are more likely to behave better during tough times when opportunities abound. By “behave better,” we mean sell less and/or buy more.

[james22]

3 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

The Value of Cash

 

Returns > feelings

[Gregmal]

3 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

Returns > feelings

Well, then there’s also the “I sat on cash when I could’ve just been invested the past (x) months/years and earned ….” It’s called opportunity cost. 
 

Further boggling of the mind, is that there’s actually been, and continue to be, TONS of rather obvious and textbook value investments out there.
 

For instance, the name of this darn board, is corner of Berkshire and Fairfax. And Fairfax has been widely covered, and at most maybe trading for 5-10x the past few years….yet people are lazy and hold cash instead. Which is more or less than same behavior as “irrational exuberance”, just on the other side of the spectrum. I’ll trademark it as “irrational pantspissing syndrome”. 

[Gregmal]

The problem with a lot of value investing rhetoric and bible book literature is that for a bad investor it really sets the hooks into the ego and give one all the ammo they need to just continue failing and doing things that don’t work. How many times have we seen folks chase a low PE into a BK because “price is what you pay and value is what you get”? Or sit out the entire run in cash because “be fearful when others are greedy” which is totally subjective bs and if your gut reads are shit so will be you fear and greed detectors. 
 

Bottom line is you actually have to work for your returns. And work for them means finding them. Not finding excuses to keep sitting out while feeling smart but remaining in the crap returns category with some plastic toy carrot hanging over your head promising some massive future payoff for being so obstinate.

[Malmqky]

I don’t think there’s anything wrong with holding some cash and waiting for fat pitches. I know people that do this and do very well.

Sure you could do better by putting in the time and using margin, etc. But there’s something to be said about keeping things simple and spending your time with family, etc instead of constantly reading 10ks.

 

If you’re underperforming indexes though? Need to reevaluate your process.

Edited December 17 by Malmqky

[Gregmal]

Waiting for a fat pitch is different than just standing up there looking for excuses not to swing. 

[Blake Hampton]

Fairfax Financial Holdings (FRFHF)

 

Shares outstanding: 22.1 million

Share price: $1,397

Market cap: $30.9 billion

 

Tangible equity (as of Q3 2024): $22.6 billion

 

Total tangible assets: $90.4 billion

- Bonds: $37.4 billion, 41% of total

- Cash and cash equivalents: $8.1 billion, 9% of total 

- Stocks and investments in associates: $17.5 billion, 19% of total

 

------------------------------------------------------------------

 

This is honestly all I need to see. Why would I pay 1.4x tangible book for a company that has nearly half of its total assets in bonds, and I wouldn't touch the entire world of fixed income with a 10-foot pole.

 

I give detailed evidence why I'm cautious right now, and the only response some of you can muster is an insult.

 

We will just have to wait and see I guess.

Edited December 17 by Blake Hampton

[james22]

16 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Bottom line is you actually have to work for your returns. And work for them means finding them. Not naysaying bitcoin.

 

Tweaked.

 

Even if you're right, what's your payoff?

 

3 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

. . . the only response some of you can muster is an insult.

 

Ironic.

[Malmqky]

3 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Fairfax Financial Holdings (FRFHF)

 

Shares outstanding: 22.1 million

Share price: $1,397

Market cap: $30.9 billion

 

Tangible equity (as of Q3 2024): $22.6 billion

 

Total tangible assets: $90.4 billion

- Bonds: $37.4 billion, 41% of total

- Cash and cash equivalents: $8.1 billion, 9% of total 

- Stocks and investments in associates: $17.5 billion, 19% of total

 

------------------------------------------------------------------

 

This is honestly all I need to see. Why would I pay 1.4x tangible book for a company that has nearly half of its total assets in bonds, and I wouldn't touch the entire world of fixed income with a 10-foot pole.

 

I give detailed evidence why I'm cautious right now, and the only response some of you can muster is an insult.

 

We will just have to wait and see I guess.

 

Well yeah, the stock is up 300% and has re-rated significantly.

 

Anytime during 2020-2023 it was dirt cheap and all but guaranteed to cashflow half the market cap. In 2024, it's not as cheap but a better business and still has a bright future. Probably a brighter one actually.

[Gregmal]

1 minute ago, Malmqky said:

 

Well yeah, the stock is up 300% and has re-rated significantly.

 

Anytime during 2020-2023 it was dirt cheap and all but guaranteed to cashflow half the market cap. In 2024, it's not as cheap but a better business and still has a bright future. Probably a brighter one actually.

Well yea, but also this lazy analysis concludes most of Fairfax is in bonds…a little deeper a dive would indicate the “bonds” are short duration investment grade lol. This is why the macro obsessions are cancerous to one’s returns. 

[Blake Hampton]

11 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Well yea, but also this lazy analysis concludes most of Fairfax is in bonds…a little deeper a dive would indicate the “bonds” are short duration investment grade lol. This is why the macro obsessions are cancerous to one’s returns. 

 

 

How exactly is this short duration?

[Gregmal]

Lmfao, the 1-5 year column? Add it up?