President-Elect Trump trades

[Blake Hampton]

11 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

At this point, who cares what the complainers and losers have to say? During term 1, they claimed he was mentally unfit for office. They then put in a guy with dementia. They called his kids pieces of shit, and then wanted us to ignore Hunter Biden. They gaslit us as criminals destroyed property, businesses and endlessly rioted. Only to then make a huge deal of the same thing happening a little too close for comfort for the shitbags in DC. They said he was a threat to democracy, and then gave us a candidate who was never elected democratically. They told us about wars that were supposedly going to happen because of Trump, and then gave us a new one every year under the Big Guy.
 

So really, who TF cares what these people have to say or what they think now?

I’m currently offering an anger management course where I think you might be a good fit.

 

In all seriousness though, Biden was not a good president. Draining the SPR? Minimum corporate tax rates? Hundreds of billions for education relief? I will admit that a lot of his stuff was really dumb.

 

But I will also die on a cross saying that Trump is dumb on steroids.

[cubsfan]

19 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

At this point, who cares what the complainers and losers have to say? During term 1, they claimed he was mentally unfit for office. They then put in a guy with dementia. They called his kids pieces of shit, and then wanted us to ignore Hunter Biden. They gaslit us as criminals destroyed property, businesses and endlessly rioted. Only to then make a huge deal of the same thing happening a little too close for comfort for the shitbags in DC. They said he was a threat to democracy, and then gave us a candidate who was never elected democratically. They told us about wars that were supposedly going to happen because of Trump, and then gave us a new one every year under the Big Guy.
 

So really, who TF cares what these people have to say or what they think now?

 

Exactly. They threw everything in the arsenal against him for 8 years, and will continue to do so.

TDS runs deep.

[LC]

So now that you all have predictably argued in circles - what are the solid trump (Stump?) trades we should be looking at?

 

Manufacturing onshoring/nearshoring? Is steel the best we've got here?

Real estate (Trump is a RE guy)? RE pushed by low interest rates? Won't rate drops benefit Tech even more than RE(like it did during COVID times)? 

De-regulation? Banks I guess? What other highly regulated areas are in scope here? 

 

On the short side: Environmental deregulation would promote supply -> lowering materials and energy prices? 

Defense spending? Does Trump really play here? Pretty sure he wants to "end the war"? My guess is his circle doesn't benefit from defense spending, so maybe he will cut here? 

 

Edited December 16 by LC

[Spekulatius]

Biden government has been great for me personally in financial terms which I suspect applies to almost anyone else here too. If Trump is just half as good, I am not complaining. 

Edited December 16 by Spekulatius

[Gregmal]

8 minutes ago, LC said:

So now that you all have predictably argued in circles - what are the solid trump (Stump?) trades we should be looking at?

 

Manufacturing onshoring/nearshoring? Is steel the best we've got here?

Real estate (Trump is a RE guy)? RE pushed by low interest rates? Won't rate drops benefit Tech even more than RE(like it did during COVID times)? 

De-regulation? Banks I guess? What other highly regulated areas are in scope here? 

 

On the short side: Environmental deregulation would promote supply -> lowering materials and energy prices? 

Defense spending? Does Trump really play here? Pretty sure he wants to "end the war"? My guess is his circle doesn't benefit from defense spending, so maybe he will cut here? 

 

The Trump trades have played out. I think people are naive and not really understanding how the market prices stuff in if they’re still looking for them. Like with FNMA, you’ve already had your run. If you wanna get in here? That’s fine, but the Trump trade already happened. 

[LC]

OK fair point - "trades" maybe not the best word.

But some of the other long term themes would have similarly long term plays?

 

Deregulation? Tariff outcomes? Impact of gov't spending on interest rate direction? 

 

Probably it requires making too many up-front assumptions on what Trump actually does (vs. say he will do) , to even get an estimate of that the outcomes will be. 

 

Better to just keep it simple and focus on the micro vs the macro. 

[Spekulatius]

The trades are done, but secular trends probably not. Steel might be one, especially if you can catch the cycle too. The Trump steel trade was in VIC in summer 2024 as NUE at $165. Funny that Trump has won (that part of the thesis was correct ), yet the stock is down 25%. I think the author did not really get the pricing cycle right that affects the share prices more than political stuff, at least short term. Longer term, this could still work out especially with stocks that are secular winners like the mini mill cos.

 

So, I am watching the pricing trend closely and probably take apposition, if STLD gets chaps enough and maybe even Nucor.

https://valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/NUCOR_CORP/5596146855

Edited December 16 by Spekulatius

[Blugolds]

2 hours ago, Gregmal said:

At this point, who cares what the complainers and losers have to say? During term 1, they claimed he was mentally unfit for office. They then put in a guy with dementia. They called his kids pieces of shit, and then wanted us to ignore Hunter Biden. They gaslit us as criminals destroyed property, businesses and endlessly rioted. Only to then make a huge deal of the same thing happening a little too close for comfort for the shitbags in DC. They said he was a threat to democracy, and then gave us a candidate who was never elected democratically. They told us about wars that were supposedly going to happen because of Trump, and then gave us a new one every year under the Big Guy.
 

So really, who TF cares what these people have to say or what they think now?

 

I agree, I’d also add, chastised Trump for nepotism and pardoning his father in-law, cried foul when Trump said the DOJ was a joke and was harassing him unjustly, Democrats said nobody was above the law…then Biden pardons his son because the DOJ was out to get him…so which is it? Is the DOJ unjust and used as a political tool or is it independent and a safeguard against criminal behavior…the Democrats cheered legalities against Trump and said Trumps claims of DOJ being used against him unjustly was BS that would never happen, then Biden turns around and pardons his son because he said the DOJ was being used against him unjustly.You cant make this stuff up! 

 

Both sides are equally hypocritical and dishonest. It’s dirty and neither side IMO has the best interest of the avg American as their focus. All they are concerned about is feathering their own nest. I never understand why people get so worked up and emotional about politics, it doesn’t matter honestly, it’s just different flavor of the same rotten fruit. It’s like arguing who the best WWF wrestler is without acknowledging that the entire thing is scripted. I can give you a list of blatant lies, dishonesty, hypocrisy, nepotism and deceit from both parties for the last 50 years and if you cant acknowledge that regardless of what side you “lean” you’re not being honest with yourself. 

 

The country would be much better off if Americans focused on making sure they as individuals epitomized what it meant to be an American, a good person, a leader etc, than expecting some shmuck in Washington to do it for them. Politicians gonna do what politicians do, the side of the aisle doesn’t matter. 

Edited December 16 by Blugolds

[Spekulatius]

4 minutes ago, Blugolds said:

 

I agree, I’d also add, chastised Trump for nepotism and pardoning his father in-law, cried foul when Trump said the DOJ was a joke and was harassing him unjustly, Democrats said nobody was above the law…then Biden pardons his son because the DOJ was out to get him…so which is it? Is the DOJ unjust and used as a political tool or is it independent and a safeguard against criminal behavior…the Democrats cheered legalities against Trump and said Trumps claims of DOJ being used against him unjustly was BS that would never happen, then Biden turns around and pardons his son because he said the DOJ was being used against him unjustly.You cant make this stuff up! 

 

Both sides are equally hypocritical and dishonest. It’s dirty and neither side IMO has the best interest of the avg American as their focus. All they are concerned about is feathering their own nest. I never understand why people get so worked up and emotional about politics, it doesn’t matter honestly, it’s just different flavor of the same rotten fruit. It’s like arguing who the best WWF wrestler is without acknowledging that the entire thing is scripted. I can give you a list of blatant lies, dishonesty, deceit from both parties for the last 50 years and if you cant acknowledge that regardless of what side you “lean” you’re being honest with yourself. 

 

The country would be much better off if Americans focused on making sure they as individuals epitomized what it meant to be an American, a good person, a leader etc, than expecting some shmuck in Washington to do it for them. Politicians gonna do what politicians do, the side of the aisle doesn’t matter. 

Well said. The best thing to do is to vote them out of the office every 4 years so grift does not go too deep and unbalanced and the one side corrects at least some of the prior nonsense.

[james22]

44 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

The Trump trades have played out.

 

The bitcoin trade hasn't yet begun.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

49 minutes ago, LC said:

OK fair point - "trades" maybe not the best word.

But some of the other long term themes would have similarly long term plays?

 

Deregulation? Tariff outcomes? Impact of gov't spending on interest rate direction? 

 

Chaos. Be long volatility. Volatility paid in spades in both 2018 and 2020 of the last Trump presidency. 

 

I like bonds here - but i also liked them in 2023. So nothing new. 4+ years in duration. I personally own the long-end, but long bonds are becoming more suspect every passing day. Especially with the likes of Pimco and Double Line both avoiding them.

 

49 minutes ago, LC said:

 

Probably it requires making too many up-front assumptions on what Trump actually does (vs. say he will do) , to even get an estimate of that the outcomes will be. 

 

Better to just keep it simple and focus on the micro vs the macro. 

+1 

 

All we can do is ignore what he says, because it's rarely what he's done. All of the "Trump" trades are reliant on him being more successful and reliable than his first term. 

 

My favorite Trump trades? Buy everything that people sold when he was elected. Foreign stocks are stupid cheap right now, especially in China, and the currencies are also stupid cheap. 

[Spooky]

1 hour ago, Blugolds said:

 

I agree, I’d also add, chastised Trump for nepotism and pardoning his father in-law, cried foul when Trump said the DOJ was a joke and was harassing him unjustly, Democrats said nobody was above the law…then Biden pardons his son because the DOJ was out to get him…so which is it? Is the DOJ unjust and used as a political tool or is it independent and a safeguard against criminal behavior…the Democrats cheered legalities against Trump and said Trumps claims of DOJ being used against him unjustly was BS that would never happen, then Biden turns around and pardons his son because he said the DOJ was being used against him unjustly.You cant make this stuff up! 

 

Both sides are equally hypocritical and dishonest. It’s dirty and neither side IMO has the best interest of the avg American as their focus. All they are concerned about is feathering their own nest. I never understand why people get so worked up and emotional about politics, it doesn’t matter honestly, it’s just different flavor of the same rotten fruit. It’s like arguing who the best WWF wrestler is without acknowledging that the entire thing is scripted. I can give you a list of blatant lies, dishonesty, deceit from both parties for the last 50 years and if you cant acknowledge that regardless of what side you “lean” you’re being honest with yourself. 

 

The country would be much better off if Americans focused on making sure they as individuals epitomized what it meant to be an American, a good person, a leader etc, than expecting some shmuck in Washington to do it for them. Politicians gonna do what politicians do, the side of the aisle doesn’t matter. 

 

Agreed, such hipocrisy at the end for Biden. First order of business should be restricting insider trading from members of congress.

 

[Luke]

I think the best trump trade is to go long China. The manufacturing loss of the USA is irreversible, as much as the political leadership would wish its different. Nobody will want to work 50 hours for shit wages to produce basic china man products. It sounds nice on paper but the dollar is too expensive, wages too high, costs of doing business too high...you cant simply lower rents in the majority of cities which are the highest rents on this planet. And who is gonna buy the more expensive manufacturing? Europe? Not really, China and India? Probably not...so best trump can do is be more friendly with china, continue to allow the cheap goods to flow in so americans have more money in their pockets, maybe do some infrastructure spending, regulate healthcare so it becomes more affordable and instate some sort of social spending because AI will cut away even further jobs

 

Its funny, at a time where service workers are replaced by AI trump thinks that producing what china man produces with robots now will bring back "jobs" to america. Does he live in the 1970s? The future will look a lot different than what he plans and i dont think he understands or can manage the upcoming developments in labor markets and technology. 

 

 

Edited December 16 by Luke

[Luke]

But then, he has musk in his cabinet and probably other good advisors that are smart so they will probably come up with a decent plan to get the best out of the situation. But the problems the US faces are not simply because the democrats are stupid or biden has dementia, the problems are structural and very hard to reverse if not impossible. Yeah some cosmetic changes like less pride and woke stuff, less illegal migrants, less drugs etc can be easily changed but thats cosmetic and not structural change that lies at the core of shitty wages, high rents, leaving jobs, drug usage due to no opportunities...

[Luke]

I am actually quite concerned by how much AI is going to change societies, its happening so fast that you have almost no time to properly react because technology development happens way faster than the government can change the system, especially in a democracy. China has way more top down control, i fear thats why people start to vote for more authoritarian types everywhere in the west due to the subconscious knowledge that we need the same and democracies became too slow in finding any consensus for anything.

[Spekulatius]

China may work as a trade but I think it will be net loser from Trump policies and slowly access to western markets as tariff barriers get erected. CCP Leadership sucks because they are preoccupied staying in power as well as pet peeves like getting control of Taiwan. 

[Xerxes]

The ultimate Trump trade

 

cannot believe the COBFians didn’t zeroed in on this one after 29 pages. 

 

[Luke]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

China may work as a trade but I think it will be net loser from Trump policies and slowly access to western markets as tariff barriers get erected. CCP Leadership sucks because they are preoccupied staying in power as well as pet peeves like getting control of Taiwan. 

You have to think longterm, its not only a good short-term trade but also over the longterm. The US market will slowly become more and more irrelevant because growth for consumer products will happen in the global south. What looks as europe and US as very important markets for China will not be the case in 10-15 years anymore, certainly not with the current trajectory. The US has no competitive manufacturing and wont have, whats left is asset-light services businesses that need little workers (no jobs for majority of americans), just look at the top marketcap companies. Yeah those businesses are highly scalable and will do well, no doubt but that doesnt mean anything for the average us citizens because they wont get a job at google or get any of the profits either. Internally they will slowly starve because there is so little substance left where the average joe can make a living and thats only stoppable with socialist policies and profit redistribution nobody will do because wallstreet finances the parties.

 

Meanwhile China on the other hand owns all the manufacturing, has tons of capabilities to develop their domestic markets+international expansion (are already biggest trading partner with most countries on the globe) and trades at the cheapest valuations ever...

 

CCP leadership is good, the party holds control and they understand what they are doing, otherwise nobody would be talking about them right now as nobody talks about ghana or whatever because they are no threat, neither militarily or economically.

 

And they also take care of equilibrium between monopolies and average joe which US never did as can be seen by all the love for luigi mangione when he kills a corporate CEO, thats quite the severe level of political instability when a murderer of one of the most important business executives is getting cheered on by everyone and their grandma.

Edited December 16 by Luke

[Luke]

Ironically the crypto boys who are so supportive of AI and whatever are totally against government handouts to jobless...where are all the people going to work if businesses can run totally fine on 0 energy cost drill baby drill and nvidia robots that serve you the burger and one programmer can do the work of 10?

[Luke]

17 minutes ago, Luke said:

Ironically the crypto boys who are so supportive of AI and whatever are totally against government handouts to jobless...where are all the people going to work if businesses can run totally fine on 0 energy cost drill baby drill and nvidia robots that serve you the burger and one programmer can do the work of 10?

The increase in government hiring is because private sector can not absorb all these workers and most companies have bullshit corporate roles that can be cut away as elon proved. So what looks like good employment now would go into depression level situation if everybody would do a musk and it would only get worse with cheap energy and AI. Then what? Where are these people gonna work and finance 1m USD+ homes and pay 2-3k a rent a month and pay all these monopoly services with? Cant have DOGE and full employment in a post industrial economy... but the boomer voters that like trump for "manufacturing" are stuck in a mindset that was valid for a USA 50 years ago but will not be for the future as i already said. Then chinas 2047 modern socialist state also kicks in a bit different from that perspective.

Edited December 16 by Luke

[Charlie]

12 hours ago, LC said:

So now that you all have predictably argued in circles - what are the solid trump (Stump?) trades we should be looking at?

The best long-term Trump trade could be this: 

Wait 6 months-2 years, until everybody is talking about Bitcoin and then you are shorting it.

That could be a very smart trade. Like John Templeton did in 2000 when he shortet internet stocks

shortly before insider could sell their internet stocks with no earnings. 

[Luke]

Do people really think the US can move 20-40% of the worlds manufacturing into the US by issuing tariffs to China? Why would anybody would do that if china has the manufacturing lifeline while the US has what to offer exactly? The dollar? Netflix subscription?

[Luke]

3 minutes ago, Charlie said:

The best long-term Trump trade could be this: 

Wait 6 months-2 years, until everybody is talking about Bitcoin and then you are shorting it.

That could be a very smart trade. Like John Templeton did in 2000 when he shortet internet stocks

shortly before insider could sell their internet stocks with no earnings. 

I like this idea too honestly.

 

Can i short bitcoin on IB?

Edited December 16 by Luke

[Malmqky]

21 minutes ago, Luke said:

Do people really think the US can move 20-40% of the worlds manufacturing into the US by issuing tariffs to China? Why would anybody would do that if china has the manufacturing lifeline while the US has what to offer exactly? The dollar? Netflix subscription?

Idk why people think tariffs on China would force manufacturing, etc. to move back to the U.S.

 

Do we really think companies will choose to move labor to a nation where they’d have to pay workers 30/hr + benefits? Why not just move to India, or Mexico, or any other country with manufacturing capabilities and much cheaper labor?

[Dinar]

@Luke, in the US we have a tremendous shortage of doctors and construction workers for instance, I am sure there are other professions which are starved for labor.    Rather than become government employees that slow down the economy, why can't these people actually contribute to economic growth by becoming doctors, plumbers, or other professionals in short supply?