President-Elect Trump trades

[Gamecock-YT]

state owned properties being sold off to oligarch buddies under nefarious measures

[Spekulatius]

7 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Did Trump's first term give us any confidence that was what he was about?

 

 

While perhaps appropriate for investment forum, the be-all-end-all of life isn't the total balance in my accounts and I think it's ok that I, and others, care about other things too. 

 

 

This is exactly what I expect to happen. He demonstrated it enough in his first term. I, for the life of me, cannot understand why people believe this time will be different. 

 

 

But better for traditional ICE auto-companies? They also benefit from tariffs, are priced like dog shit, and are now on more equal footing without the $7,500 credit? 

We have not talked about Tesla carbon credits yet. They are half of Tesla’s income and are subsidized by ICE car producers.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

3 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

We have not talked about Tesla carbon credits yet. They are half of Tesla’s income and are subsidized by ICE car producers.

 

Items that they either will pay less for over time as they improve efficiency or increase hybrid and battery EVs as portions of their lineup. 

 

https://www.teslarati.com/stellantis-eliminate-buying-emissions-credits-tesla/#:~:text=Stellantis brand Fiat Chrysler Automobiles,goals on an annual basis.

 

Alternatively, Trump may cancel any incentive to buy them....

 

Musk's positioning close to Trump may be an asset.

 

Trump's desire to cut spending on credits (and NASA) while courting coal country and getting rid of regulations may not be... at least not for EV fan boys. 

[Lazarus]

On 11/15/2024 at 5:55 PM, yesman182 said:

KHC seems to be down based on Kennedy? Any other packed food companies getting hit? KHC is now yielding 5% with a new small buyback. 

The KHC yield has a 144% payout ratio. Doesn't seem sustainable.

[Spekulatius]

The real losers if RFK actually does go after food ingredients are the producers of such like IFF. The food cos will just change their ingredient like they do in other parts of the world already and perhaps raise prices a bit here or there.

 

Consumers will have to get used to less artificial colors.

Edited Monday at 12:22 AM by Spekulatius

[Dinar]

For those worried about impact of Trump deportations: 25% of all illegal immigrants that came to NYC during Biden's administration are supported by the taxpayers currently.

https://nypost.com/2024/11/18/us-news/over-223k-migrants-have-come-to-nyc-so-far-double-albanys-population/

[dealraker]

Of interest of some on the TT may be that my nephew just returned from the Southeast Independent Builders Supply gathering.  Given our builders supply is (ongoing) the most profitable of this large group based on net profit margin some amount of "awe shucks maybe these guys know a little bit" could possibly come forth.

 

In any event my nephew says the gathering was quite euphoric, the election cast a unanimous surety of lower taxes and lower interest rates among the business owners.  Much like today's Wall Street analysts the "sure thing" of the new administration's huge effect and affect on the economy is obviously pressed right into today's quotes on many publicly traded entities.

 

During the session there was a "let's do an open discussion of our concerns" and whatnot.  Along the way my nephew brought up his concern, it went something like, "I'm a bit concerned about our labor force..."

 

The room went silent my nephew says.  Yep, that's where we are today.  And you can be absolutely certain that no one in my family has a ****ing clue about the builders supply and building business...or so it seems from the latest SBSI gathering.   Lower taxes and lower interest rates are 100% certain as is the abundance of labor.

[Grenville]

2 hours ago, dealraker said:

Of interest of some on the TT may be that my nephew just returned from the Southeast Independent Builders Supply gathering.  Given our builders supply is (ongoing) the most profitable of this large group based on net profit margin some amount of "awe shucks maybe these guys know a little bit" could possibly come forth.

 

In any event my nephew says the gathering was quite euphoric, the election cast a unanimous surety of lower taxes and lower interest rates among the business owners.  Much like today's Wall Street analysts the "sure thing" of the new administration's huge effect and affect on the economy is obviously pressed right into today's quotes on many publicly traded entities.

 

During the session there was a "let's do an open discussion of our concerns" and whatnot.  Along the way my nephew brought up his concern, it went something like, "I'm a bit concerned about our labor force..."

 

The room went silent my nephew says.  Yep, that's where we are today.  And you can be absolutely certain that no one in my family has a ****ing clue about the builders supply and building business...or so it seems from the latest SBSI gathering.   Lower taxes and lower interest rates are 100% certain as is the abundance of labor.

 

 the anecdote...helpful to have real on the ground info. Thanks for sharing. 

[rogermunibond]

@dealraker yee gads

 

In some of the building trades, immigrant labor makes up 75-80% of the workforce.  Roofing for example.

 

Are folks really not knowing this?  I suppose they think the net effect of tax cuts and lower interest rates versus slowdown in building trades from lack of labor?

[Dinar]

6 minutes ago, rogermunibond said:

@dealraker yee gads

 

In some of the building trades, immigrant labor makes up 75-80% of the workforce.  Roofing for example.

 

Are folks really not knowing this?  I suppose they think the net effect of tax cuts and lower interest rates versus slowdown in building trades from lack of labor?

Yes, but what % are people who came here illegally, and what % came illegally in the last 4 years?

[Gregmal]

Sentiment really matters in the REAL economy. If people are feeling good about their jobs and the future they’re probably spending more. 

[rogermunibond]

9 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Yes, but what % are people who came here illegally, and what % came illegally in the last 4 years?

 

Not sure if that's answerable.  In my area, most of the roofers are Salvadoran.  Here's how they work.  Guy who's here the longest knows the trade, and when he or his company need additional trainees he asks around in the community, maybe at a local church.  Then he gets leads to more recent Salvadoran migrants looking for work.  Takes them to the job site and new labor supply.  Over the last two years there have been fewer northern triangle (ES, Guatamala, Honduras) migrants, more from Venezuela, Haiti, Cuba.  Not sure if they have the same labor network.

 

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/07/22/what-we-know-about-unauthorized-immigrants-living-in-the-us/

[Blugolds]

There is a TON of illegal labor in this country. Most of which are jobs done that nobody I know would want to do. Ie. Roofing, drywall, landscaping, concrete etc. 

 

I know several guys that own their own business. They basically drive around and quote roofing jobs, meet the customer, make the sale, order the materials and schedule a dumpster delivery...he calls Hefe' to tell him the address of the job to show up on Monday, Hefe' shows up with his crew in a van and they strip. prep, reinstall the roof and clean up, they are INSANELY fast, Hefe's is paid in cash and the white American guy collects the check from the homeowner and the cycle repeats. 

 

His entire business is structured around cheap, fast, quality labor force. He has been doing this for over a decade, I dont know if the next 4 years will be any different, he has seen many administrations, but he's certainly concerned. He probably couldnt find white guys to do the work in general and show up reliably, and if they did they would want a wage that would probably be double or more than what he is paying now. 

 

Another example, when I was younger I worked on a farm in the small rural community near my hometown. The farmer I worked for had a 1970's dilapidated trailer house in the back of the farm that housed about 6 young Mexican guys, again one "farm hand manager" that spoke enough English to get by and the rest did ALL the chores around the farm, this was a facility that housed about 1000 heifers from newborns to 1yr old at which time he would sell them back to the farmer or send to auction. It was the farmer, me, the on staff veterinarian and the illegal workforce. I remember once there was an argument/fight between the Mexicans and I asked the farmer about it, he told me that one of the guys was from the south and one was from the north and those mexicans fight so they kicked him out, he was gone...I said, "oh no, what are you gonna do?" he said, "ah doesnt matter, Petey (his nickname for the head guy with broken english) will find another guy" sure enough Petey made a phone call and the next day there was a new guy there to take the place and get trained in, The farmer paid them peanuts and the kicker was, they also paid "rent" to live in the trailer! My guess is what they netted was for sure under minimum wage even, but they got to work, and a place to live, and Christmas presents of Carhart jackets and bibs to work in the cold. I was shocked, and its like that at all the farms in the area he told me. 

 

Again, all these guys have seen multiple administrations over decades, I dont know if this one will be truly different or it will be another "build a wall and make Mexico pay for it deal" but I know there are many guys that have made a lot of money on the backs of ultra cheap reliable labor that are a little nervous, they are staunch republicans and voted for Trump, want secure boarders, but also dont want to kill the golden goose, it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. 

 

My experience from what I have seen is just like @rogermunibond described above. 

 

Another example, we have an Au Pair who's contract is up this summer after her 2nd year, she wants to stay obviously, but unless she gets married or starts going to school (which she cant afford obviously) she will have to go back home, she has been networking with other Au Pairs in the program and they have told her if she wants to stay she can get cash jobs, they have a whole network like Roger described, a lot of it sounds to be like waitressing jobs, kitchens, housekeeping type duties, some of which sounds like the restaurant manager isnt even paying them hourly, just straight tips...not a bad deal if you own a restaurant! They all speak perfect English, reliable and arent entitled, plus with no hourly wage, he has nothing to lose, they are at the mercy of the patrons generosity. 

Edited Tuesday at 05:47 PM by Blugolds
added

[rogermunibond]

12 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Sentiment really matters in the REAL economy. If people are feeling good about their jobs and the future they’re probably spending more. 

 

Economic sentiment is now extremely politically polarized especially when people respond to surveys.

 

Not sure if that matters as much.

 

People can say the economy is shit because the other party is in power.  But that still doesn't stop them from spending.

 

Your stock portfolio and income growth are probably better indicators on spending now than economic sentiment.

[gfp]

27 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Yes, but what % are people who came here illegally, and what % came illegally in the last 4 years?

 

If you came to this country legally and you are working on top of a roof, something went terribly wrong for you.  There is nothing special about the last 4 years - the border has been porous forever.  All of my roofing labor is illegal, and none of them are recent arrivals.  They have kids in school, their wives clean houses or sometimes work on the roofing crews (!)  They are busy making America great.  And their food is better

[Gregmal]

The last 4 years have been pretty mediocre for the normal, non stock market people. You had COVID which upended life as we knew it. Then inflation kicked peoples asses, and then a reckless rate hike campaign that accomplished very little other than making the bigger things in life even more expensive then they already were. Not sure Trump is gonna change things to the degree people hope, but it’s pretty clear people have some hope again.

[Masterofnone]

1 hour ago, gfp said:

 

If you came to this country legally and you are working on top of a roof, something went terribly wrong for you.  There is nothing special about the last 4 years - the border has been porous forever.  All of my roofing labor is illegal, and none of them are recent arrivals.  They have kids in school, their wives clean houses or sometimes work on the roofing crews (!)  They are busy making America great.  And their food is better

+1

Cracking down on illegals is position not policy.  Too many sectors would come screeching to a halt. Anywhere where the work is hard and conditions suck. Immigrant labor has historically always done this work- railroads, textiles, mining etc. There has always been resentment and bigotry- worse for those whose skin wasn't white. Dagos, Pollacks, Micks, Gooks and Chinks. And Wetback. But cheap labor has always been an engine of this country's growth and prosperity.

Edited Tuesday at 07:06 PM by Masterofnone

[gfp]

Trump is going to be our hero to slay Biden's inflation by deporting our labor force!  Except he probably won't because reality

 

 

But Immigrants are committing crimes!  And Teslas are crashing!  omg omg

 

(edit: sorry, forgot to credit wabuffo on the more accurate CPI chart above)

Edited Tuesday at 06:41 PM by gfp

[cubsfan]

The whole border thing gets phased in:

 

- Seal the border permanently (that should be quick)

- Start deporting criminals, many thousands that are here. That's a wonderful thing.

- Deport those that are residing in hotels, etc and living on welfare. Another wonderful thing.

- Now focus on deporting those that have entered illegally in the last 4 years when Biden open the flood gates. As they renew driver's licenses, get stop for traffic tickets, apply for benefits, etc, etc. Arrest & deport.

 

You might well end up with those that have been here several years, with jobs, paying taxes, etc are allowed to stay as non-citizens with an eventual path to citizenship.

 

You also have the opportunity to have illegals self-report and volunteer for deportation, where the government holds their place in line for a green card/work visa - like a legal immigrant would do.

Those that don't self report - are not allowed that privilege - and those will be never allowed to enter.

 

Breaking the law should have consequences, and the adminstration can incentivize the right behavior for immigrants.  What the Biden administration did was a travesty for the citizens and these illegals that will be deported.

[rogermunibond]

Wall Street Is Too Pumped About Trump to Worry About His Policies

Executives say his preoccupation with the stock market will override his economically dangerous ideas.

 

https://archive.ph/oZAHg

Edited Tuesday at 07:14 PM by rogermunibond

[Masterofnone]

10 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Now focus on deporting those that have entered illegally in the last 4 years when Biden open the flood gates

Illegal immigration peaked in 2007 (GW Bush).

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/07/22/what-we-know-about-unauthorized-immigrants-living-in-the-us/

[73 Reds]

22 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

The whole border thing gets phased in:

 

- Seal the border permanently (that should be quick)

- Start deporting criminals, many thousands that are here. That's a wonderful thing.

- Deport those that are residing in hotels, etc and living on welfare. Another wonderful thing.

- Now focus on deporting those that have entered illegally in the last 4 years when Biden open the flood gates. As they renew driver's licenses, get stop for traffic tickets, apply for benefits, etc, etc. Arrest & deport.

 

You might well end up with those that have been here several years, with jobs, paying taxes, etc are allowed to stay as non-citizens with an eventual path to citizenship.

 

You also have the opportunity to have illegals self-report and volunteer for deportation, where the government holds their place in line for a green card/work visa - like a legal immigrant would do.

Those that don't self report - are not allowed that privilege - and those will be never allowed to enter.

 

Breaking the law should have consequences, and the adminstration can incentivize the right behavior for immigrants.  What the Biden administration did was a travesty for the citizens and these illegals that will be deported.

+1  I would give self-reporting non violent, non-criminal , otherwise law-abiding illegals with jobs and families here another alternative - remain here and pay your way toward citizenship.  The price should be high (to discourage others later from using it as a precedent) and the interim period should be the equivalent of probation - one strike and you're out.

[cubsfan]

14 minutes ago, Masterofnone said:

Illegal immigration peaked in 2007 (GW Bush).

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/07/22/what-we-know-about-unauthorized-immigrants-living-in-the-us/

 

Not sure I understand this article, sounds like BS. The estimate of illegals the last 4 years is 10-12M.

The number of illegals total should be around 25-40M.

[Grenville]

52 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Not sure I understand this article, sounds like BS. The estimate of illegals the last 4 years is 10-12M.

The number of illegals total should be around 25-40M.

 

Would love to see where you're getting your data about illegal immigrants over the last four years being 10-12mln and the total number in the US at 25-40mln

[Spekulatius]

Unauthorized emigrants (which actually includes some that are legal for the time being like asylum seekers) are estimated at around 10M which is actually lower then in 2010.