President-Elect Trump trades

[dealraker]

4 minutes ago, Ulti said:

And actually deal … you should at least have an honorable mention … up 130% on ewbc and I have been  lightening …

If you go banking then East West is a good decision that you made.  I have East West in a small amount now, but it was one of the stocks I sold when I joined family members to buy industrial park land a year or so ago.  There were years and years when the stock sold for 17-20 times earnings, during the lesser equity/asset ratio days.  

[Buckeye]

1 hour ago, james22 said:

 

Oh, there is. You just don't recognize him yet.

 

His name is Michael Saylor.

Here we go! Now Saylor is Buffet, or is going to be with his Gold-Currency-Friends and Family-Picasso-Babysitter Money-Bitcoin.  Thank you James. Also, you forgot to include your new signature
***This advertisement is brought to you by Bitcoin***

Edited yesterday at 01:20 AM by Buckeye

[Buckeye]

47 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

You conflate two things, Buckeye. What makes Bitcoin go up is its adoption, yes. But its adoption is driven by its being of higher long-term value compared to other assets, not because those who own it "get" more people to adopt it.

 

 

Like I said:

 

 

Now, do I benefit from faster adoption? Sure.

 

But I've ZERO efficacy. No one I convince here will move the needle.

 

The needle will be moved by nation-states and institutions.

 

I can only repeat that we're early. 

 

Hopefully that might benefit someone here.

 

As I benefit from pushback.

Nation State grab your oars and get in the boat!! Without you, our Bitcoin has no way to go up in value. And that’s bad for us.

 

***This advertisement is brought to you buy Bitcoin***

[Buckeye]

2 hours ago, james22 said:

 

You conflate two things, Buckeye. What makes Bitcoin go up is its adoption, yes. But its adoption is driven by its being of higher long-term value compared to other assets, not because those who own it "get" more people to adopt it.

 

 

Like I said:

 

 

Now, do I benefit from faster adoption? Sure.

 

But I've ZERO efficacy. No one I convince here will move the needle.

 

The needle will be moved by nation-states and institutions.

 

I can only repeat that we're early. 

 

Hopefully that might benefit someone here.

 

As I benefit from pushback.

James, do you realize that your sentence “But its adoption is driven by its being of higher long-term value compared to other assets,” is a bunch of gobbledygook??

Edited yesterday at 02:43 AM by Buckeye

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, Buckeye said:

Wait Cubs is back and now he’s telling me about the things that I didn’t mention?!? There are millions of things that I didn’t mention Cubs.  I am sorry I didn’t know that I have to mention all of the things I didn’t mention too! Whew this is going to be a long night

 

Nah.... I'm just responding to your circle jerk arguments about the law and how you're so concerned about Trump's merit for being President. I guess you'll just have to live with it.

Edited yesterday at 01:34 AM by cubsfan

[Buckeye]

1 minute ago, cubsfan said:

 

Nah.... I'm just responding to your circle jerk arguments about the law and how you're so concerned about Trump merit for being President. I guess you'll just have to live with it.

Cubs, I am completely fine living with Trump, and living myself. Wait what?? Apparently you are not concerned about Trump’s merit, that’s cool if that’s how you roll.

 

President elect Trump (thank you James!) is my President. And I want him to succeed at successfully running our country! Because I am proud American!  And Happy Veterans Day to all of our Veterans today. Thank you for your service.  Please god help us all!  
 

 

 

[Dinar]

@dealraker, Charlie, would you mind explaining why you'd sold Progressive?  (I own it, bought it last summer at $136 or so.)  Thank you.

[nwoodman]

1 hour ago, Blake Hampton said:

I am super bearish.

The current financial state of our country points directly toward large inflationary pressure in the future. Given that one of our central bank's primary objectives is price stability, it's highly likely that interest rate increases will follow. Potential effects from such a scenario:

- Substantially higher interest expenses across the board, as everyone has to refinance old debt issued during ZIRP
- Increased government interest expenses, which will almost certainly lead to large changes surrounding both taxation and spending policies
- A higher discount rate for assets

 

The bond market is in agreement
 

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-11/trump-s-market-honeymoon-won-t-last-much-longer

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, Vish_ram said:

Value of all tokens =Total money supply = value of all goods and services exchanged.

This is incorrect. First of all, the amount of money in circulation does not equal the value of all assets or goods and services exchanged . Also, If the tokens would disappear or devalued, the assets would still be worth something. One could replace tokens with other tokens and the assets would still be worth something, but the tokens would not.

[Gregmal]

26 minutes ago, nwoodman said:

The bond market is in agreement
 

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-11/trump-s-market-honeymoon-won-t-last-much-longer

An opinion piece and bond prices back to where they were a few months ago proves this?

[dealraker]

58 minutes ago, Dinar said:

@dealraker, Charlie, would you mind explaining why you'd sold Progressive?  (I own it, bought it last summer at $136 or so.)  Thank you.

Diinar...To get on with the emotional and mental transition I just sold all the stocks in the account.  Took three days to do that and selling PGR and ODFL was obviously financially silly.  But the plan was and is to get free of the sell anxiety and get stimulated through some activity.  I plan on being active in this account, mostly that's for my staying "alive" and excited, maybe even agitated a little.  Angela, younger than me, just wants me buzzing about doing mental challenges.  She is certain it will keep me from rapid mental decline.  The very reason I post here...and Angela loves me doing this.

 

Edited yesterday at 02:42 AM by dealraker

[Buckeye]

3 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Diinar...To get on with the emotional and mental transition I just sold all the stocks in the account.  Took three days to do that and selling PGR and ODFL was obviously financially silly.  But the plan was and is to get free of the sell anxiety and get stimulated through some activity.  I plan on being active in this account, mostly that's for my staying "alive" and excited, maybe even agitated a little.  Angela, younger than me, just wants me buzzing about doing mental challenges.  She certain it will keep me from rapid mental decline.  The very reason I post here...and Angela loves me doing this.

 

“The very reason I post here...and Angela loves me doing this.”
 

And so do we Deal! 

[Buckeye]

3 hours ago, james22 said:

 

You might be a little more appreciative that I'm taking time away from influencing nation-state and institutional heads to try and convince you lot. 

 

Low ROI, sure, but Satoshi writes my checks, so . . .

So Satoshi writes you checks now? In what currency? 

[Vish_ram]

43 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

This is incorrect. First of all, the amount of money in circulation does not equal the value of all assets or goods and services exchanged . Also, If the tokens would disappear or devalued, the assets would still be worth something. One could replace tokens with other tokens and the assets would still be worth something, but the tokens would not.

this was in the context of Mars example.

 

assumptions being tokens are indestructible and non-inflationary. Assume tokens are the only way to sell/buy anything. 

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, Buckeye said:

So Satoshi writes you checks now? In what currency? 

 

This is somehow funny.

[73 Reds]

14 hours ago, james22 said:

 

Seriously, if you really care (and you should), there's a wealth of info out there.

 

The questions you ask are not new and have been answered many times elsewhere.

 

Could start with the crypto and MSTR threads here.

 

As to whether BTC is a Trump trade or not, that's been answered today, hasn't it?

The issue for me is that none of your info provides any reasonable, quantifiable way to value BTC.   

[73 Reds]

13 hours ago, Vish_ram said:

We’re in price discovery mode.

Given Golds inadequacies vis a vis BTC, it should be valued above Gold.

OK, let me know when a legitimate price has been discovered, and why.  Not trying to be rude but next time you buy a car, house or anything significant, don't you want to know the price you pay is appropriate?

[rkbabang]

34 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

OK, let me know when a legitimate price has been discovered, and why.  Not trying to be rude but next time you buy a car, house or anything significant, don't you want to know the price you pay is appropriate?

 

How do you know if the price is appropriate?  Zillow says my house is worth more than twice what I paid for it 9 years ago.  It says my 2nd house is worth almost 2.5 times what I paid for it 5 years ago.   How is that possible other than "that is what someone would be willing to pay"?   That's what a market is.  That's what an "appropriate" price is.  It is what someone is willing to pay.  It is supply and demand.  Nothing more, nothing less.

[73 Reds]

3 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

 

How do you know if the price is appropriate?  Zillow says my house is worth more than twice what I paid for it 9 years ago.  It says my 2nd house is worth almost 2.5 times what I paid for it 5 years ago.   How is that possible other than "that is what someone would be willing to pay"?   That's what a market is.  That's what an "appropriate" price is.  It is what someone is willing to pay.  It is supply and demand.  Nothing more, nothing less.

Well, there are widely accepted valuation metrics for real estate.  And there are comparables.  When you bought your house 9 years ago it was worth a lot less for many identifiable reasons.  Why was BTC worth ???% more yesterday than it was the day before?   

[dealraker]

Coinbase CEO today says "thousands of new coins coming to market...basically every company will have one...and these assets will create trillions of value that will rival the stock exchanges."

 

Pretty cool that assets such as this will make us all so wealthy.  Like so many here state emphatically, the Coinbase guy states that it was the guv blocking the way for this wealth build, and now that prevention is gone.  

 

"The debt and deficit is why Bitcoin has such value."  So I can't help but ask: Why don't we, the COBF, create our own coin and join this asset wealth build?  I am so damn tired on waiting for Warren to deploy the cash and seeing all this massive wealth build right out of the blue is drawing all the envy I can muster.  And I know for certain all you here feel the same way.

 

The guv grievance is universal.  We just need the damn guv to get out of the way...'cept Trump....cause we love his guvb'ment!

Edited 22 hours ago by dealraker

[73 Reds]

1 minute ago, dealraker said:

Coinbase CEO today says "thousands of new coins coming to market...basically every company will have one...and these assets will create trillions of value that will rival the stock exchanges."

 

Pretty cool that assets such as this will make us all so wealthy.  Like so many here state emphatically, the Coinbase guy states that it was the guv blocking the way for this wealth build, and now that prevention is gone.  

 

"The debt and deficit is why Bitcoin has such value."  So I can't help but ask: Why don't we, the COBF, create our own coin base and join this asset wealth build?  I am so damn tired on waiting for Warren to deploy the cash and seeing all this massive wealth build right out of the blue is drawing all the envy I can muster.  And I know for certain all you here feel the same way.

 

The guv grievance is universal.  We just need the damn guv to get out of the way...'cept Trump....cause we love his guvb'ment!

While we're at it why don't we, as BRK shareholders propose that BRK use all its spare cash and buy BTC?  Its a sure thing, right?

[rkbabang]

7 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

While we're at it why don't we, as BRK shareholders propose that BRK use all its spare cash and buy BTC?  Its a sure thing, right?

Yes, that would be the best thing BRK could do with it's cash right now.

[Vish_ram]

52 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

OK, let me know when a legitimate price has been discovered, and why.  Not trying to be rude but next time you buy a car, house or anything significant, don't you want to know the price you pay is appropriate?

 

No offence. I like your Q's and keep them coming. It helps me too. 

 

We've an asset like Gold that trades far higher than the value attributed to its industrial use and jewelry. The reason is that it is perceived as inflation hedge (for right reasons as it is less inflationary compared to Fiat). Gold is at 17.5T. 

 

The mass cultish collective of BTC thinks that Gold is inferior and BTC should be valued far higher than Gold. So we're having a ramp up to catch up to Gold first. The relegation of all metals will result in BTC moving higher. 

 

Right now the appropriate value of BTC could be 2-3X of Gold and then keeps moving higher as Fiat is slowly displaced. Fiat will be a transactional currency to some extent (for taxation purposes). BTC will use L2 for that too. 

 

 

[james22]

47 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

The issue for me is that none of your info provides any reasonable, quantifiable way to value BTC.  

 

1. There'd be no return if valuation where easy, yeah? 

 

2. Maybe this isn't for you and your hammer? 

 

3. How do you think growth investors value companies?

 

4. Consider rate of adoption and catalysts.

 

Extraordinary performance comes only from correct nonconsensus forecasts.

 

If you really want to see information asymmetry, check out the MSTR thread.  Value investors insist on considering NAV alone.

 

[rkbabang]

16 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Well, there are widely accepted valuation metrics for real estate.  And there are comparables.  When you bought your house 9 years ago it was worth a lot less for many identifiable reasons.  Why was BTC worth ???% more yesterday than it was the day before?   

 

 

"Widely accepted valuation metrics" is just a fancy way of saying this is what other buyers have recently paid for similar houses in this area, so this is what we think someone might pay for yours.  It is just supply and demand.  Nothing more.  There is no quantifiable "intrinsic" value to a house.   I didn't look at my house and say "look this house has an intrinsic value worth double this", far from it, I thought I overpaid.  I outbid a few other people and paid well over asking.

Edited 22 hours ago by rkbabang