Looks Like A Tough Hurricane Season

[glider3834]

6 hours ago, UK said:

 

Some of the lines sound like almost a disapointment that this season may be major event free:)

TS Francine - new one to watch

https://www.statesman.com/story/weather/hurricane/2024/09/08/nhc-hurricane-tracker-path-texas-spaghetti-models-hurricane-season-2024-tropical-storm-francine/75132485007/

[SharperDingaan]

You might keep in mind that just because something hasn't happened yet, does not mean that it will not. All that we know is that the science cannot explain the 'missing' hurricanes this season, it is very unusual, and that the science expects fewer/bigger weather events down the pike; weather events also don't have to originate in the Atlantic.

 

There is a reason why most people don't go hiking around mountain tops during stormy weather; they don't want to accidentally get struck by lightning!

 

SD

 

Edited September 19 by SharperDingaan

[Buckeye]

2 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

You might to keep in mind that just because something hasn't happened yet, does not mean that it will not. All that we know is that the science cannot explain the 'missing' hurricanes this season, it is very unusual, and that the science expects fewer/bigger weather events down the pike; weather events also don't have to originate in the Atlantic.

 

There is a reason why most people don't go hiking around mountain tops during stormy weather;

they don't want to accidentally get stuck by lightning!

 

SD

 

There have been a few articles lately trying to explain the lack of hurricanes this season. Apparently the storms this year have been forming off of Africa’s Saharan desert, which is farther north than usual. And therefore the air starts off warmer and drier, leading to weaker storms. Not sure why this is happening though. 
 

But I think you are certainly correct when you say that just because it’s been a mild season thus far, does not necessarily mean that the rest of the season will be equally as mild. 

Edited September 18 by Buckeye

[dartmonkey]

28 minutes ago, Buckeye said:

But I think you are certainly correct when you say that just because it’s been a mild season thus far, does not necessarily mean that the rest of the season will be equally as mild. 

It doesn't necessarily mean the rest of the season will be equally mild, and it doesn't necessarily mean the rest of the season will be worse.

 

September 10 is the date with the most hurricanes, and September 12 is the median date, so we're about a week past halfway through now. The NOAA forecast for this year was for 8-13 hurricanes, including 4-7 major ones (category 3 or more), a little worse than the average for the last 30 years which has been 7 hurricanes, 3 of them major. So far, there have been 4 hurricanes, 1 of them major, so it is looking like we are headed for an average year.

 

I don't think there's any reason for there to be any 'catching up' (and chatgpt agrees with me) : the average number of hurricanes after a mild first half of the season is... average, which means, we are now most likely to have a full season that is slightly below average.

 

https://bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2021/09/when-is-peak-of-hurricane-season.html

 

 

[gfp]

Yeah, I heard it was Saharan dust but as we have seen, storms can start right there in the gulf and escalate quickly - they don't need to roll in from way out in the Atlantic to get big.

 

Anecdotally, the recent category 2 hurricane, Francine, was very mild.  The storm zig zagged East and the eye wall passed very close to New Orleans (it was a very wide eye).  It was more like being in a car wash than a hurricane.  Not much damage to property in my neighborhood.  No claims on my block.  There were flooding losses in Jefferson Parish, which tend to be covered by FEMA, auto insurers and some commercial policies but not your typical homeowner's policy.

 

They are saying $1 Billion of damage in Louisiana from Francine, but I'll bet that is not the private insurance-insured figure.  Either way, I don't expect it to be material to reinsurers.  

[Jaygo]

May have a nasty one headed to Joe land this week. Thursday night landfall likely in the panhandle.

[Jaygo]

Looks like the hurricane will be quite severe but making landfall in a less populated area. Tallahassee will likely have a lot of wind damage and Tampa on north up the coast will see major storm surge. 

 

Its fast moving so likely an abundance of damage moving inland. Atlanta is in the cone and will likely have a cat one or less but with tons of rainfall. 

[Gamecock-YT]

reminds me of hurricane hugo with the speed and intensity. It did a number on towns even inland.

[Hoodlum]

This hurricane season seems to be more difficult to predict path and intensity growth.  Many storms have either petered out or have changed direction unexpectedly.  But just like Hurricane John that recently landed on the Pacific, things can change quickly now. 

[Hoodlum]

They are now suggesting it will reach Cat 4 level.  Still on path to lesser populated shores.  Tallahassee will be hit the hardest as it will be near the center.

 

It would seem to have a very wide path so damage could be extensive.

 

 

Edited September 25 by Hoodlum

[Parsad]

This sucker is big and strong!  It's going to cause significant damage.  Hope people in its path are safe and get out of the way.

 

Reinsurance market is going to take a hit this quarter...I think the hard market may continue into 2025/2026.

 

Cheers!

[73 Reds]

13 hours ago, Parsad said:

This sucker is big and strong!  It's going to cause significant damage.  Hope people in its path are safe and get out of the way.

 

Reinsurance market is going to take a hit this quarter...I think the hard market may continue into 2025/2026.

 

Cheers!

Massive water damage on the FL Gulf Coast.  In some areas (my neighborhood) water came up so fast that people had to leave out of windows in the middle of the night to avoid waist deep water in their homes.  Barrier islands will take a long time to recover.  Even though eye of the storm was 100 miles offshore in these parts and max winds were only 80 mph, damage from water and even wind is excessive.  NWS and even local weather forecaster severely underestimated the potential flood impacts.  If the storm came in 100 miles to the east, entire communities would be gone.  Just a small word of caution for all you JOE shareholders - you may believe that you are protected but you are not. 

[Dinar]

20 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Massive water damage on the FL Gulf Coast.  In some areas (my neighborhood) water came up so fast that people had to leave out of windows in the middle of the night to avoid waist deep water in their homes.  Barrier islands will take a long time to recover.  Even though eye of the storm was 100 miles offshore in these parts and max winds were only 80 mph, damage from water and even wind is excessive.  NWS and even local weather forecaster severely underestimated the potential flood impacts.  If the storm came in 100 miles to the east, entire communities would be gone.  Just a small word of caution for all you JOE shareholders - you may believe that you are protected but you are not. 

Thank you.  Would you mind sharing where you are located, and how high is elevation in the area where you live?  Thank you and hopefully you and your family were not hurt too badly by this hurricane.  

[73 Reds]

1 minute ago, Dinar said:

Thank you.  Would you mind sharing where you are located, and how high is elevation in the area where you live?  Thank you and hopefully you and your family were not hurt too badly by this hurricane.  

@dinar thanks for the well wishes.  We are in the Tampa Bay Area, elevation of my residence here is 7.5 feet.  But water came up and flooded parts at elevation of more than 15 feet.  Have been here more than 30 years and never saw water come so far so fast.  Neighbor 2 doors away had to evacuate through bedroom window in the middle of the night with wife and cat as water came up over their bed.  I've lived through a hurricane with winds of 150 mph but never experienced water threats like last night.  Good news is there was plenty of catfish floating around the street so no need to go hungry.

[Gregmal]

Well, elevation matters. Northern migration within the state of Florida is inevitable. As is migration to Georgia. Youve got better odds of your house getting hit by lightning than you do storm surges in most of JOE land. Not joking, theres been 2 homes at Origins hit by lightning TTM. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

35 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Massive water damage on the FL Gulf Coast.  In some areas (my neighborhood) water came up so fast that people had to leave out of windows in the middle of the night to avoid waist deep water in their homes.  Barrier islands will take a long time to recover.  Even though eye of the storm was 100 miles offshore in these parts and max winds were only 80 mph, damage from water and even wind is excessive.  NWS and even local weather forecaster severely underestimated the potential flood impacts.  If the storm came in 100 miles to the east, entire communities would be gone.  Just a small word of caution for all you JOE shareholders - you may believe that you are protected but you are not. 

 

I lived on on the Louisiana/Mississippi Gulf coast just before Katrina. We were fortunate to have moved just a few months before the storm. Flood zones didn't end up mattering. Entire neighborhoods outside of flood zones had 10-20 ft of water. I remember friends of mine lived on a bay in the area, but elevated 20-30 ft up a sheer cliff from the water. Still had over 10 ft of water in their home. 

 

Our prior home wasn't as elevated, but was 1.5+ miles inland from any coastal water. Was still ENTIRELY under when the storm surge came. 

 

20-30 ft walls of waters have a funny way of changing what areas flood when they come onto land and people cannot rely on historical flood plane maps to determine if they'll be seeing any. 

[73 Reds]

5 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

I lived on on the Louisiana/Mississippi Gulf coast just before Katrina. We were fortunate to have moved just a few months before the storm. Flood zones didn't end up mattering. Entire neighborhoods outside of flood zones had 10-20 ft of water. I remember friends of mine lived on a bay in the area, but elevated 20-30 ft up a sheer cliff from the water. Still had over 10 ft of water in their home. 

 

Our prior home wasn't as elevated, but was 1.5+ miles inland from any coastal water. Was still ENTIRELY under when the storm surge came. 

 

20-30 ft walls of waters have a funny way of changing what areas flood when they come onto land and people cannot rely on historical flood plane maps to determine if they'll be seeing any. 

Yeah, unfortunately it takes experience to really grasp the concept.  I learned long ago you can't fight Mother Nature and you'll never outsmart it either.  

[dartmonkey]

Looks like insured losses from Helene will be about $5b, from various sources. In the past, Fairfax has often shouldered about 1% of these, is that a fair rule of thumb? Meaning about $50m pre-tax, very manageable. Initial projections were a bit higher, and could have been worse if Helene had come closer to Tallahassee.

[Xerxes]

 

if the samething is said “twice” it must be correct. 
 

[Jaygo]

Watching the aftermath of this storm is so sad to me. I really cant imagine having your possessions and memories just wash down the river. Not to mention the lost lives.

 

Some videos of rapid mudslides and the floods hitting areas where people never expected to be in a flood zone is just terrifying.

 

I wonder if the idea of a flood plain or flood zone will be expended as a result. 

 

[Jaygo]

Another gulf system expected around October 5th as well. Really hope this does not form into anything. 

 

The damage must be in the tens of billions from this storm. In eastern tenn and western NC many bridges have completely washed away. 

 

Is it possible this is not a major cat? I dont really understand the insurance industry

[73 Reds]

40 minutes ago, Jaygo said:

Watching the aftermath of this storm is so sad to me. I really cant imagine having your possessions and memories just wash down the river. Not to mention the lost lives.

 

Some videos of rapid mudslides and the floods hitting areas where people never expected to be in a flood zone is just terrifying.

 

I wonder if the idea of a flood plain or flood zone will be expended as a result. 

 

The problem is flood zones are based on historical data.  Helene rewrote the record books, as did water temperatures this year.  It doesn't take rocket science to recognize that this is no coincidence.  Should water temperatures continue to rise it won't be long before "hurricane season" is expanded well beyond June 1 to Dec. 1. and flood zones are expanded well inland.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

On 9/28/2024 at 9:48 AM, dartmonkey said:

Looks like insured losses from Helene will be about $5b, from various sources. In the past, Fairfax has often shouldered about 1% of these, is that a fair rule of thumb? Meaning about $50m pre-tax, very manageable. Initial projections were a bit higher, and could have been worse if Helene had come closer to Tallahassee.

 

Maybe in wrong. It's hard to understand the scale of billions, but after watching videos from Georgia, Florida, and the Carolinas - $5B strikes me as low. 

 

Bridges, interstates, critical  infrastructure, and entire neighborhoods are gone across the three states. There's ongoing flooding now from rivers and dams. Windspeeds were 130 mph+ 4+ hours inland in Georgia where I have family and there neighborhoods have trees down and roof damage everywhere. We're talking about a path of damage comparable in size to the country of Italy....

 

[Gregmal]

Most of the country was built and infrastructure established wayyyy prior to the 1990s. There is an absolute ton of housing, bridges, roads, etc that aren’t built to handle outlier weather events. The insurers have been waking up to this which is why rates should continue to be strong for years to come. 

[Whensthepaintdry?]

I’m in Asheville. It’s way worse than I could have imagined. Making things worse now is the word that the city’s main line from the watershed is broken and under water. No word on how long the city will be without water yet.