Muddy Waters is short

[kab60]

I liked Fairfax' response yesterday, but they should just refute the report one point at a time in writing. However bad Muddy Waters' take is, they won't be able to address all the points in the call, and why most of the points are bollocks, it's not like it takes long to address them in writing.

[Mick92]

7 hours ago, nwoodman said:

The Q&A portion of the CC next Friday will be fascinating.  Hardly make or break but if they do a good job of addressing these “issues”, then MW may have done us all a huge favour.  I would see it as a great opportunity for some of the other members of the Fairfax C-Suite to shine. Some straight shooting and plain speaking would do wonders.

 

Yes, I really hope Prem doesn't answer all the questions himself. I have the utmost respect for Prem as an investor, he seems like a decent guy too and he's not uncharismatic either, but, his answers to questions can be a little bit unclear at times. Perhaps Jen Allen as CFO could be suitable to refute the MW points, one by one? Or they could release a written rebuttal prior to earnings and be willing to discuss on the call.

 

The only way I could see it going bad is if Prem decides to take it all on himself on the day and ends up with a bit of rambling Prem speak coming out.

[StubbleJumper]

6 minutes ago, Mick92 said:

 

Yes, I really hope Prem doesn't answer all the questions himself. I have the utmost respect for Prem as an investor, he seems like a decent guy too and he's not uncharismatic either, but, his answers to questions can be a little bit unclear at times. Perhaps Jen Allen as CFO could be suitable to refute the MW points, one by one? Or they could release a written rebuttal prior to earnings and be willing to discuss on the call.

 

The only way I could see it going bad is if Prem decides to take it all on himself on the day and ends up with a bit of rambling Prem speak coming out.

 

No.  Say what you want about Prem's investing skills, but he is not a particularly clear and cogent communicator.  When he answers a question, he doesn't really provide a response, but instead tends to do what I call the "Prem fuddle" where he mumbles around in circles about something that is only tangentially related to the original question.  If he only did this for the questions he wanted to avoid, I would understand and I would admire him for being so crafty.  But he does it for EVERY question, even the softballs.

 

What we need is for Jen Allen to give a 2 minute spiel about the rules for writing down assets due to permanent impairment, and FFH's annual process for doing this.  There's a legitimate reason that Farmer's Edge or Digit have not yet been written down as much as Muddy Waters would contend should be done, and that reason is the actual accounting rules and the annual internal evaluation process.  There's nothing nefarious there.  So, we need Jen as the expert (and as a solid communicator!) to briefly walk through the rules and the process.  After she gives a clear and cogent explanation, then perhaps Prem could chime in with his usual indecipherable "Prem fuddle."

 

And so it goes with the IFRIS adjustments.  Jen is a solid communicator and should walk us through the reason why FFH is now using IFRIS, how the rules work, and the outcome.  She has already done this on past calls and did a great job of it.  Well, it seems that she needs to do it again in the context of yesterday's report.  And then after a compelling explanation from Jen, perhaps Prem can chip in with his usual few comments that go in circles.

 

This CC is actually important.  The only response that Prem should be making should be something that he reads word-for-word that was written by Jen and the rest of the C-suite.  Keep the extemporaneous comments to a minimum and preferably have the stronger communicators provide technical explanations where they are appropriate.

 

 

SJ

[Mick92]

Yep, that's basically how I'd like them to approach it.

[giulio]

13 minutes ago, StubbleJumper said:

 

No.  Say what you want about Prem's investing skills, but he is not a particularly clear and cogent communicator.  When he answers a question, he doesn't really provide a response, but instead tends to do what I call the "Prem fuddle" where he mumbles around in circles about something that is only tangentially related to the original question.  If he only did this for the questions he wanted to avoid, I would understand and I would admire him for being so crafty.  But he does it for EVERY question, even the softballs.

 

What we need is for Jen Allen to give a 2 minute spiel about the rules for writing down assets due to permanent impairment, and FFH's annual process for doing this.  There's a legitimate reason that Farmer's Edge or Digit have not yet been written down as much as Muddy Waters would contend should be done, and that reason is the actual accounting rules and the annual internal evaluation process.  There's nothing nefarious there.  So, we need Jen as the expert (and as a solid communicator!) to briefly walk through the rules and the process.  After she gives a clear and cogent explanation, then perhaps Prem could chime in with his usual indecipherable "Prem fuddle."

 

And so it goes with the IFRIS adjustments.  Jen is a solid communicator and should walk us through the reason why FFH is now using IFRIS, how the rules work, and the outcome.  She has already done this on past calls and did a great job of it.  Well, it seems that she needs to do it again in the context of yesterday's report.  And then after a compelling explanation from Jen, perhaps Prem can chip in with his usual few comments that go in circles.

 

This CC is actually important.  The only response that Prem should be making should be something that he reads word-for-word that was written by Jen and the rest of the C-suite.  Keep the extemporaneous comments to a minimum and preferably have the stronger communicators provide technical explanations where they are appropriate.

 

 

SJ

1000% right.

 

Brad Jacobs discussed how he reacted to a short attack on XPO. I thought it was brilliant.

https://www.joincolossus.com/episodes/19966134/jacobs-think-big-and-move-fast?tab=transcript

[Hektor]

2 hours ago, StubbleJumper said:

No.  Say what you want about Prem's investing skills, but he is not a particularly clear and cogent communicator.  When he answers a question, he doesn't really provide a response, but instead tends to do what I call the "Prem fuddle" where he mumbles around in circles about something that is only tangentially related to the original question.  If he only did this for the questions he wanted to avoid, I would understand and I would admire him for being so crafty.  But he does it for EVERY question, even the softballs.

 

What we need is for Jen Allen to give a 2 minute spiel about the rules for writing down assets due to permanent impairment, and FFH's annual process for doing this.  There's a legitimate reason that Farmer's Edge or Digit have not yet been written down as much as Muddy Waters would contend should be done, and that reason is the actual accounting rules and the annual internal evaluation process.  There's nothing nefarious there.  So, we need Jen as the expert (and as a solid communicator!) to briefly walk through the rules and the process.  After she gives a clear and cogent explanation, then perhaps Prem could chime in with his usual indecipherable "Prem fuddle."

 

And so it goes with the IFRIS adjustments.  Jen is a solid communicator and should walk us through the reason why FFH is now using IFRIS, how the rules work, and the outcome.  She has already done this on past calls and did a great job of it.  Well, it seems that she needs to do it again in the context of yesterday's report.  And then after a compelling explanation from Jen, perhaps Prem can chip in with his usual few comments that go in circles.

 

This CC is actually important.  The only response that Prem should be making should be something that he reads word-for-word that was written by Jen and the rest of the C-suite.  Keep the extemporaneous comments to a minimum and preferably have the stronger communicators provide technical explanations where they are appropriate.

+1

 

That said, Prem built up this firm to where it is today. Also, he beat back a far more vicious attack previously. I trust and the Fairfax team will handle this appropriately.

Edited February 9 by Hektor
Typo

[Parsad]

5 hours ago, Hektor said:

+1

 

That said, Prem built up this firm to where it is today. Also, he beat back a far more vicious attack previously. I trust and the Fairfax team will handle this appropriately.

 

+1!  Cheers!

[ValueMaven]

OTC just hit over $1000 and is up close to 15% from the MW bottom 

 

Wouldnt surprise me if we get some buyback news here Thursday night.  Again - very stupid stock to short.  Only 25M shares o/s and the float is very tight!!!  

Edited February 14 by ValueMaven

[maplevalue]

Has MW confirmed anywhere they will participate in the conference call? My sense is they will not and we will never hear anything substantive again from them on FFH.

[cwericb]

52 minutes ago, maplevalue said:

Has MW confirmed anywhere they will participate in the conference call? My sense is they will not and we will never hear anything substantive again from them on FFH.

 

 

I agree, I doubt they would have the balls to actually confront Fairfax on the facts.

 

However. I believe at the last quarterly meeting only one question was received and recent meetings haven’t drawn a lot of interest from analysts. Fairfax has built up a bit of an image of being just a boring old insurance company so perhaps MW has done us a favour.

 

Because, the MW report has actually focused a lot of international attention on Fairfax right before the annual meeting. As BNN said “...the whole saga makes the company’s next earnings report, scheduled for Friday of this week, a must-read. So, we will.”

 

As Oscar Wilde put it: “There's only one thing in the world worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about.”

Edited February 14 by cwericb

[Masterofnone]

1 hour ago, ValueMaven said:

OTC just hit over $1000 and is up close to 15% from the MW bottom 

 

Wouldnt surprise me if we get some buyback news here Thursday night.  Again - very stupid stock to short.  Only 25M shares o/s and the float is very tight!!!  

In the interest of hyperbole, 1000/907 is 10.25%, but your point stands.

[nwoodman]

1 hour ago, maplevalue said:

Has MW confirmed anywhere they will participate in the conference call? My sense is they will not and we will never hear anything substantive again from them on FFH.

[Santayana]

Making lots of popcorn for this call...

[StubbleJumper]

2 hours ago, nwoodman said:

 

 

LOL, a short-selling firm that prides itself on its research capabilities, and they can't even find an e-mail address or telephone number!  Do these guys have any network at all?

 

 

SJ

[Hektor]

3 hours ago, nwoodman said:

 

 

https://www.fairfax.ca/contact-us/

 

[gfp]

LOL

 

[Parsad]

4 minutes ago, StubbleJumper said:

 

 

LOL, a short-selling firm that prides itself on its research capabilities, and they can't even find an e-mail address or telephone number!  Do these guys have any network at all?

 

 

SJ

 

LOL!!  Fairfax has a direct number on their Contact page. 

 

It's also pretty easy to figure out the email address of anyone you want to reach at Fairfax:

 

Basically, first letter of the first name + last name @ fairfax.ca . 

 

But that would be far too difficult for any CPA, CFA, analyst or head of a hedge fund to figure out!  Plus, you know how Fairfax likes to inflate their email addresses.

 

Cheers!

 

Cheers!

[Parsad]

3 minutes ago, gfp said:

LOL

 

 

LOL!  It must be some sort of trick.  Such a devious character like Prem Watsa, would never be so transparent!

 

Cheers!

[glider3834]

this is interesting, I didn't realise this but apparently Carson Block is the founder of zeroes tv where he did his interview on Fairfax 

 

https://www.zer0es.tv/about-us/

 

About Carson

Carson Block, founder of Zer0es TV, is a successful short-seller who has spent his career calling out corporate frauds, through his company Muddy Waters Research. From lawyer to hedge fund researcher and entrepreneur, Block’s experience, particularly in China, laid the foundation for his prominent short-selling career.

Edited February 15 by glider3834

[Hektor]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

Plus, you know how Fairfax likes to inflate their email addresses.

[Hektor]

1 hour ago, gfp said:

LOL

 

Looking up this info in publicly filed documents is too much work 

[Haryana]

Not to forget

Not too long ago

Prem just gave out his direct email on a conference call

Many here were expectedly surprised with such unexpected

 

[Daphne]

If they show up on the call, expect lots of questions along the line of “when did you stop beating your wife?”

[Crip1]

7 hours ago, Daphne said:

If they show up on the call, expect lots of questions along the line of “when did you stop beating your wife?”

Likely right

[Castanza]

35 minutes ago, Crip1 said:

Likely right

 

I was just a kid when the last round of this happened to Fairfax. Was this really some of what happened?! Since finding this board I have always wanted to hear the full story on this.