Fairfax 2024

[sleepydragon]

On 10/7/2024 at 11:05 AM, MMM20 said:

I missed this last week. CIBC's "index specialist" now thinks FFH is #1 in the queue for inclusion in the TSX 60, which would bring "close to 1mm shares of demand into the stock, representing ~15x its 30-day average daily volume." I'm guessing this is music to @SafetyinNumbers's ears and explains the recent strength. Here's hoping we eventually get to sell at a big premium to intrinsic value to know-nothing index investors. Sorry, grandma!

 

 

I used to do a lot of studies on these before. I remembered the highest prediction power variable that predicts the “pop” return is the dollar amount, not the days of $adv. also, TSX 60 is a small index. For SP500, such add is about 10% pop. For SP400, maybe 4%. You can look at historical what the “pop” is for past index adds to TSX. I suspect it’s not much.

 

 

[SafetyinNumbers]

3 hours ago, sleepydragon said:

I used to do a lot of studies on these before. I remembered the highest prediction power variable that predicts the “pop” return is the dollar amount, not the days of $adv. also, TSX 60 is a small index. For SP500, such add is about 10% pop. For SP400, maybe 4%. You can look at historical what the “pop” is for past index adds to TSX. I suspect it’s not much.

 

 

It all depends on the extant shareholders and where the marginal sellers are whether they are basing their decisions on price or value. 

[sleepydragon]

Just now, SafetyinNumbers said:

It all depends on the extant shareholders and where the marginal sellers are whether they are basing their decisions on price or value. 

This is a very good point.