Fairfax 2024

[MMM20]

1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said:

that ultimately get spun off into majority holdings under a holding company paying a very high dividend

 

?

[Xerxes]

44 minutes ago, MMM20 said:

 

?

same here ?

 

comeone @SharperDingaan

more context pls on that last paragraph 

 

i got the “good luck to all” bit, but the paragraph just before lost me 

[SharperDingaan]

2 hours ago, Xerxes said:

same here ?

 

comeone @SharperDingaan

more context pls on that last paragraph 

 

i got the “good luck to all” bit, but the paragraph just before lost me 

 

Over time each becomes its own very strong stand-alone regional business. Each does a small IPO (10-15% of the entire business) to establish a public market, a current share value, raise its own capital, and create the ability to issue its own stock options etc. The other 85% of the shares remain held by FFH, with dividends flowing up to FFH as already occurs.

 

Puts an easy daily minimum sum of the parts value on FFH, and is standard operating procedure in most corporate finance shops. Nothing magical.    

 

SD

Edited April 9, 2024 by SharperDingaan

[Xerxes]

Eurobank and Fairfax India are already public. 
 

why create another holding company layer on top of each one ?

[value_hunter]

Seems Fairfax bought back $200m CAD shares in Mar.

https://ceo.ca/api/sedi/?symbol=ffh&amount=&transaction=&insider=

[Hoodlum]

Our friend Brett has raised his target from $970 to 1180 cdn.  I don’t know how he can reconcile the stock being overvalued at $970, yet increase the target by $210.  He will need to do it again before long. 
 

https://www.morningstar.com/company-reports/1216921-fairfax-increasing-our-fair-value-estimate?listing=0P00006821

[SafetyinNumbers]

10 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:

Our friend Brett has raised his target from $970 to 1180 cdn.  I don’t know how he can reconcile the stock being overvalued at $970, yet increase the target by $210.  He will need to do it again before long. 
 

https://www.morningstar.com/company-reports/1216921-fairfax-increasing-our-fair-value-estimate?listing=0P00006821

Can you see how much he changed his earnings estimates?

[Hoodlum]

31 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

Can you see how much he changed his earnings estimates?

I cannot as I don't have access.

[SafetyinNumbers]

16 minutes ago, Hoodlum said:

I cannot as I don't have access.

He says his target is 1x 2023 YE BV but C$1180 is US$862 and 2023 YE BV was ~US$940.

 

How does this stuff get published?

 

[SafetyinNumbers]

54 minutes ago, Haryana said:

 

By the scam and brainwashing of CFA designation.

 

I’m proud of my CFA but it doesn’t make someone care about the quality of their work.

I care about what I share on Social Media and I’m not getting paid by anyone.

[Maverick47]

I got a look at a prior report of Brett’s and noticed that he projects Earnings per diluted share…so presumably he converts actual book value per share at year end 2023 to a book value per diluted share instead. I think diluted shares are about 8% higher than actual shares.  That may well explain the disconnect between his report and the reality that I care about personally.

[Santayana]

He's forecasting $106 for 2024 and $92 for 2025.

[SafetyinNumbers]

47 minutes ago, Maverick47 said:

I got a look at a prior report of Brett’s and noticed that he projects Earnings per diluted share…so presumably he converts actual book value per share at year end 2023 to a book value per diluted share instead. I think diluted shares are about 8% higher than actual shares.  That may well explain the disconnect between his report and the reality that I care about personally.

That doesn’t make sense. They shares held for employees haven’t vested yet. He probably doesn’t understand the accounting. Also it’s weird because the computer sets the target price so he’s working backwards. 

[SafetyinNumbers]

28 minutes ago, Santayana said:

He's forecasting $106 for 2024 and $92 for 2025.

Those were the old estimates unless they are unchanged.

[Parsad]

5 hours ago, Hoodlum said:

Our friend Brett has raised his target from $970 to 1180 cdn.  I don’t know how he can reconcile the stock being overvalued at $970, yet increase the target by $210.  He will need to do it again before long. 
 

https://www.morningstar.com/company-reports/1216921-fairfax-increasing-our-fair-value-estimate?listing=0P00006821

 

Not bad for a no moat company!  Cheers!

[giulio]

What stood out to me:

1. Their expertise in India and how well the bial team is executing
   • Buffett and Jain tried to set up an insurance operation in India and gave up. I am sure they tried to invest there and found out it was too difficult. This is of course from 2010, before Modi. I would say that Watsa has been highly successful instead and it does get enough credit for this. He saw the opportunity and positioned fairfax to succeed.
   • Bial becoming a hub for airlines in the south of India is a great accomplishment 
2. Sokol made me jump from my chair: I was not expecting that kind of growth from Atlas
3. "we don't forecast, we react and we are fast": great line and great example with the $1B issuance not being possible today
4. The fact that FFH might be less dependent on investment gains going forward and their improved ability to absorb cat losses: I liked that whole segment.
   • I don't think we are there already but it is a promising start especially if they tilt their investment strategy in that direction

G

[ValueMaven]

Very odd - FRFHF opened down nearly -4% today in the US Market.  Was able to add more in size around the ~$1055 level USD.  Just very odd opening action in the first 10-15mins of trading.  Has since normalized a bit.

[Hoodlum]

38 minutes ago, ValueMaven said:

Very odd - FRFHF opened down nearly -4% today in the US Market.  Was able to add more in size around the ~$1055 level USD.  Just very odd opening action in the first 10-15mins of trading.  Has since normalized a bit.

FFH was also down 2.5% at the open. The CAD to US exchange rate had a large drop with CAD dollar dropping almost 2% over past 2 days.  So there was likely an exchange rate adjustment on the stock this morning as well. 
 

I picked up some more as well after the open. 

Edited April 12, 2024 by Hoodlum

[ValueMaven]

helpful @Hoodlum thank you

[Parsad]

Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited: Result of Voting for Directors at Annual Shareholders’ Meeting - Fairfax Financial

 

What's with the big protest vote against Bill Weldon?  Is it something to do with his time at J&J?

 

Cheers!

[Santayana]

It comes up every year, but I'm always a little surprised at the > 10% number that seem to always vote against Prem.

[Parsad]

7 hours ago, Santayana said:

It comes up every year, but I'm always a little surprised at the > 10% number that seem to always vote against Prem.

 

The small protest every year against Prem is fine...he's CEO...there is always going to be a small group of disgruntled shareholders.  Buffett even usually gets the most against him too.

 

But it's almost a 50/50 split on subordinate voting for Bill...I've never seen that before!

 

Cheers!

[Thrifty3000]

3 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

The small protest every year against Prem is fine...he's CEO...there is always going to be a small group of disgruntled shareholders.  Buffett even usually gets the most against him too.

 

But it's almost a 50/50 split on subordinate voting for Bill...I've never seen that before!

 

Cheers!

I did some digging on Weldon. Looks like he was at the center of plenty of controversy when he was at JNJ.

 

[jfan]

I was just looking at their reserve triangles and it seems they are reporting a number of years of adverse developments (gross undiscounted calendar numbers). I've attached 2022's and 2023's triangle. Just wondering if someone can provide me so insight and whether this is something to watch more carefully (percentage-wise it doesn't seem to be very large relative to their policy liabilities)

 

Edited April 13, 2024 by jfan

[Tommm50]

Looks to me like they"re flat or down each year. They have favorable development every year but one, by $200k.