Cryptocurrencies

[wachtwoord]

On 2/16/2023 at 11:59 PM, rkbabang said:

No, neither. The right has traditionally been more an enemy of freedom than the left, it is only the last 10-15 years or so that the left has been far worse. So much so that it is easy to forget that the right used to be the main enemy of freedom, especially if you are somewhat young.  (I’m talking about in the US, not Europe or Asia).

 

10-15 years isn't true worldwide at all. Maybe the US although I'd argue the socialist takeover started in yhe early 1900s with the Brits shoving their Trojan horse (federal reserve aka a central bank, a communist concept) down your throats.

 

Traditionally the most restrictive have been religions (Christianity in the west) but they've been passed truly well in the 20th century by the socialists and the nation state. I wonder if it was inevitable after the French revolution marked the end of traditional feudalism (it's still there but hidden better) and the birth of nation states.

[rkbabang]

12 hours ago, wachtwoord said:

10-15 years isn't true worldwide at all. Maybe the US although I'd argue the socialist takeover started in yhe early 1900s with the Brits shoving their Trojan horse (federal reserve aka a central bank, a communist concept) down your throats.

 

Traditionally the most restrictive have been religions (Christianity in the west) but they've been passed truly well in the 20th century by the socialists and the nation state. I wonder if it was inevitable after the French revolution marked the end of traditional feudalism (it's still there but hidden better) and the birth of nation states.

Exactly, the Fabian society has had a long term plan for over a century to turn the planet into a prison ruled by the elites. That is why I specifically said that I’m talking about the US.

[Dave86ch]

Munger vs Saylor

 

https://dscompounding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/q4-OGJTcu5CYpnb2.mp4

Edited February 19, 2023 by Dave86ch

[wachtwoord]

On 2/19/2023 at 12:29 AM, rkbabang said:

Exactly, the Fabian society has had a long term plan for over a century to turn the planet into a prison ruled by the elites. That is why I specifically said that I’m talking about the US.

 

Ah sorry, I thought you only confined your last point to the US, not your entire comment.

 

I was already surprised of not agreeing with you on something  

[jfan]

A couple articles for those interested:

 

Do cryptocurrencies have a place for value-oriented investors? | Benefits Canada.com

 

The second is an attached pdf from the Federal Bank of Reserve New York.

Here is the abstract:

sr1052.pdf

[JRM]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/crypto-companies-behind-tether-used-falsified-documents-and-shell-companies-to-get-bank-accounts-f798b0a5?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1

 

and here we go...

 

also, Silvergate appears to be in trouble.  Hopefully nobody still owns this donut.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, JRM said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/crypto-companies-behind-tether-used-falsified-documents-and-shell-companies-to-get-bank-accounts-f798b0a5?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1

 

and here we go...

 

also, Silvergate appears to be in trouble.  Hopefully nobody still owns this donut.

 

Always interested in coverage on tether given it's wide-use in the crypto ecosystem

 

But it also begs the question why people are still discussing the misdeeds from 2018 in 2023 when everyone and their mother knows this company is/was involved in shady sh*t....

[Dave86ch]

Yeah, frankly, Tether is the skeleton in the closet for this sector.

 

I never understood why people like Szabo and Back are so close to Tether.

 

Sometimes I wonder if bad actors can bootstrap a good technology that brings benefit to humanity.

 

I mean, I see many ways in which Bitcoin could be a positive development for our species, but there are clearly dark forces involved along its path, Im not naive at the point to delude myself in the illusion that great achievements are free from sneaky incentives.

Edited March 4, 2023 by Dave86ch

[Dalal.Holdings]

I see that today the entire crypto market cap is about $1 Trillion. This amount could instead be put into T-bills and earn $50B a year in what they call risk-free return...

 

So the question becomes why would anyone in their right mind "invest" in such stuff. The old argument was that it was "inflation resistant" which has been thoroughly eviscerated.

 

Rates are slowly killing this entire space as anyone in their right mind would expect.

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-03-09-2023/card/silvergate-stock-price-plunges-after-crypto-bank-announces-shutdown-c83IXMuP4ZA6saqPm8BA

 

As rates go higher, more dominos will fall

 

I see Cathie bought more TSLA shares...

[SharperDingaan]

Stable coins are 'de-pegging' - ie: 'breaking the buck', in the Asset Backed Securities world.

https://cryptonews.com/news/how-usdc-stablecoin-depegging-could-break-many-crypto-firms-but-bitcoin-will-stronger.htm

 

Crypto is a very inter-connected industry; lots of loose cannon rolling around in the hold isn't good for anyone. Notable is that Tether (significant Chinese support) is trading above its peg at 1.01 following their unusual news release on friday https://tether.to/en/more-outdated-allegations-from-the-wsj

 

It would appear that some decisions have been made ...

 

SD

 

 

Edited March 11, 2023 by SharperDingaan

[TwoCitiesCapital]

3 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

Stable coins are 'de-pegging' - ie: 'breaking the buck', in the Asset Backed Securities world.

https://cryptonews.com/news/how-usdc-stablecoin-depegging-could-break-many-crypto-firms-but-bitcoin-will-stronger.htm

 

Crypto is a very inter-connected industry, and lots of loose cannon rolling around in the hold isn't good for anyone. Notable is that tether has quietly de-pegged, and is currently at 1.01. De-pegged because they had to? Being maintained above 1 in the hope that few will choose to unwind if they can 'see' the collateral in the shop window?

 

Interesting times.

 

SD

 

 

Probably at 1.01 as people panic and sell USDC for alternatives

Edited March 11, 2023 by TwoCitiesCapital

[alxcii]

USDC will repeg, probably slightly off peg but it should be fine. Circle's withdrawal from SVB might not even be stuck as they initiated the wire before FDIC came in.

 

I think the safe haven narrative for majors is going to take hold in the medium term. When banks are failing and stables are depegging, BTC/ETH seems like a good place to be. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Curious to me that while "crypto" banks are failing, and stablecoins depegging left and right, that Bitcoin (and many tokens) are absolutely on fire. 

 

Is this where BTC breaks its correlation of the last two years with traditional markets?

[changegonnacome]

Lots of chatter out there around why Signature Bank was so aggressively shut down when it seems it was still able to meet deposit demands. The story goes that regulators now want crypto exposure expunged & lanced from the US banking system.

 

Why?

Because they are beginning to come to the conclusion that a collapse in the crypto ecosystem (FTX) jumped like a virus into the traditional banking system compounding over time via Silvergate into the SVIB collapse.

 

So the story goes that US regulators........are beginning to trace the SVIB bank run......back first to FTX......which caused a run on Silvergate as crypto bros all demanded their money back ASAP & where Silvergate had asset-liabilty mismatches and collapsed. This effectively began a search for 'Silvergate like' bank balance sheets and SVIB fit the bill.......and well the rest is recent history.............just shows that risks have a strange way of compounding and the 'tiny' crypto market long considered NOT systemic & too small to matter can end up mattering alot. In this instance one can argue that the crypto tail started wagging the US financial system dog.

Edited March 14, 2023 by changegonnacome

[alxcii]

42 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

Curious to me that while "crypto" banks are failing, and stablecoins depegging left and right, that Bitcoin (and many tokens) are absolutely on fire. 

 

Is this where BTC breaks its correlation of the last two years with traditional markets?

 

Why wouldn't bank failures and stable depegs be bullish for crypto? Where else are you going to hide out?

[TwoCitiesCapital]

14 minutes ago, alxcii said:

 

Why wouldn't bank failures and stable depegs be bullish for crypto? Where else are you going to hide out?

 

Treasury bills? You know, the old stand by risk-free asset. 

 

As far as why people wouldn't hide out in crypto, they didn't in 2018, or 2020, or 2022. 

 

Eventually we'll get there, but BTC is a risk-asset for now AND has had excessively high correlation with equities since 2020 so I don't think it's obvious that it would be the safe-haven people flee to when bank failures are happening... particularly when everyone is relating those bank failures to crypto institutions like Silvergate and Signature. 

[rkbabang]

 

Eventually people will realize that BTC doesn't equal crypto.   I think it's prudent to have 10-25% of your net worth in BTC, but absolutely insane to have that much in dogshitmemetothemooncoin.

 

[alxcii]

15 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Treasury bills? You know, the old stand by risk-free asset. 

 

As far as why people wouldn't hide out in crypto, they didn't in 2018, or 2020, or 2022. 

 

Eventually we'll get there, but BTC is a risk-asset for now AND has had excessively high correlation with equities since 2020 so I don't think it's obvious that it would be the safe-haven people flee to when bank failures are happening... particularly when everyone is relating those bank failures to crypto institutions like Silvergate and Signature. 

 

I get your point but I think there's a good chunk of people in crypto that wouldn't have considered crossing back into tradfi. Their choices during the USDC depeg would be something like:

 

1) Swap to BTC/ETH, take market risk

2) Swap to USDT, take the risk that it's not fully backed

3) Swap to a decentralized stable that lacks liquidity

4) Stay in USDC and hope it repegs

 

After everything settled there were probably people who didn't trust centralized stables anymore and just stayed in the majors. 

 

8 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

 

Eventually people will realize that BTC doesn't equal crypto.   I think it's prudent to have 10-25% of your net worth in BTC, but absolutely insane to have that much in dogshitmemetothemooncoin.

 

 

Eventually maxis will realize crypto doesn't equal BTC. Not everything needs to have a monetary premium to be useful.

[rkbabang]

9 minutes ago, alxcii said:

55 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

 

Eventually people will realize that BTC doesn't equal crypto.   I think it's prudent to have 10-25% of your net worth in BTC, but absolutely insane to have that much in dogshitmemetothemooncoin.

 

 

Eventually maxis will realize crypto doesn't equal BTC. Not everything needs to have a monetary premium to be useful.

 

 

You just restated what I said, but for different reasons.  I said BTC != crypto and you said crypto != BTC.  

 

(BTC!=Crypto) = (Crypto!=BTC)

 

Yes.  I agree.  

Only BTC will have a long term monetary premium which makes it a completely different animal than anything else in crypto.  Crypto (not including BTC) will also be tremendously valuable, but there will be lot's of money lost as well as a lot gained.  There will be hot crypto assets which will eventually crash.  It will be more akin to investing in companies, you will need to research what it does and who or what is running it, analyze its addressable market and what its competition is, what the roadmap looks like for improvement, etc.  And right now, this early in, it is akin to investing in startups not mature companies, in an industry which hasn't existed very long.   It is highly speculative, even if the potential rewards are immense.   But my point was that no particular crypto, nor crypto in general, should trade with any correlation to Bitcoin.

 

[Dave86ch]

 

 

 

Edited March 18, 2023 by Dave86ch

[SharperDingaan]

We all might want to draw a few lessons learned from BTC over the last two weeks.

BTC is currently USD 27,560; UP, and by quite a bit ....

 

BTC is now a proven alternative to both traditional finance, and much of crypto in its current form. Yes, naked BTC is volatile, but the volatility is also entirely curable if you choose to use CME options/futures &/or a ETF. The added plus is BTC anonymity/privacy countering the zero-privacy of CBDC; the cost of privacy is the satoshi used to pay the miner to hash two blocks.

 

However, the real lesson is that BTC is a direct competitor to ALL sovereign treasuries, AND that it pays better. BTC yield to maturity as option premium divided by the strike price, it can be bought/sold in all the major currencies, and is entirely immune to national capital controls (ie: portable). Largely orthogonal to the macro events driving treasury prices, and term to maturity decided by the expiry month of the option.

 

That orthogonal relationship diversifies a treasury holding, and BTC is continually proving its value in weekly live stress tests. It is now becoming hard to make the case for NOT including BTC as part of the treasuries weighting in an institutional portfolio. And as that weight shifts ... so will the price of BTC. 

 

All good!

 

SD

 

   

Edited March 18, 2023 by SharperDingaan

[Parsad]

Class-action suit against 8 media influencers who promoted FTX:

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/finance-youtubers-promoted-ftx-now-161015315.html

 

Cheers!

[rkbabang]

12 hours ago, Parsad said:

Class-action suit against 8 media influencers who promoted FTX:

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/finance-youtubers-promoted-ftx-now-161015315.html

 

Cheers!

What, did they forget to include the disclaimer?  

 

*This is not financial advice to buy or sell any investment, please do your own research before investing.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. Blah, blah, blah, don't sue me.

 

[Parsad]

And the hits keep coming.  Not sure why the SEC only steps up when the shit has already hit the fan!  Cheers!

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/lindsay-lohan-jake-paul-among-212045827.html