alxcii

Curious how you stumbled onto ZEC, I didn't think anyone would post about it here until price was way higher. I keep mulling this over and I think if I had to buy one coin and not touch it for 5-10 years it would actually be ZEC and not BTC.

The road to post quantum is going to be very contentious and given what we've seen of the response to the recent developments I'm not even that sanguine that BTC will be prepared in time for a quantum breakthrough. I like ZECBTC and ETHBTC longs here - I think BTC may have ossified early and there may be too much inertia and too many factions to push the right changes. Zcash and Ethereum are much more aligned on a community level and don't have a huge honeypot like Satoshi's coins to deal with. They also carry much more of the cypherpunk spirit that BTC had in its day. Today you hear Saylor talking about freezing coins and its clear something has been lost from the culture.

ASTS.

The Linux analogy is a pretty shallow one because among other things, the value capture mechanism is completely different vs. BTC. For Linux, value capture comes from the ecosystem around the kernel but for BTC it is primarily from directly holding the asset. If you are bullish Linux you can't buy Linux, you have to long some very weak Linux proxy like Google or IBM which may not have much correlation with the adoption of Linux itself. If you are bullish BTC you just buy BTC. As for whether the picks and shovels (BTC services) can outperform BTC itself I wouldn't count on it. Just look at the value of above ground gold vs. gold equities or more relevant to this thread, whether the Winklevii have made more money from their BTC holdings or from Gemini.

There is no privacy with BTC - I think many are finally waking up to this and that is why ZEC has caught a bid recently. The Winklevii just seeded a ZEC DAT: https://www.prnewswire.com/in/news-releases/leap-therapeutics-rebrands-as-cypherpunk-expands-leadership-team-to-drive-new-zcash-treasury-strategy-302612543.html ZEC is encrypted BTC. Thesis here:

No contest, moderate coffee drinking reduces all cause mortality while modern studies on alcohol consumption basically show a linear correlation with mortality. Alcohol is overrated. Short alcohol, long cannabis.

I believe you are conflating Eth the ecosystem with Eth the asset - I am less sanguine on the latter than you are. Eth will grow as the broader crypto ecosystem grows, but predicting whether it can outperform relative to everything else is I think, a seven foot hurdle.

1a. You cannot compare L2 blocks with a centralized sequencer to Solana blocks with 1,300+ active validators - Solana is inarguably the most performant chain at scale. 1b. It depends what you mean by better. Modular lacks synchronous composability so DeFi applications should gravitate towards large high throughput chains. Handling say, liquidations, in a cross chain async environment is not ideal, but for other use cases it may not matter as much. 2. By data posted. Fee share is irrelevant because Celestia only charges only enough to prevent spam by design at the moment. 3. Time will tell. 4. I think about where trading happens today - there's only so many exchanges actually matter (NYSE, Tokyo, Shanghai, LSE etc.) My view is that L1s will mirror the distribution of public stock exchanges in significance.

- I do believe the rollup architecture will be common but there will absolutely need to be high throughput chains as well. Operating a Nasdaq on-chain (high throughput, high composability) will be fundamentally different than say, gaming economies (rollups). - This is why I don't believe Solana vs. Ethereum is the right question to ask as we will need both architectures. - My view is that Solana is and will remain the category leader of monolithic chains, but Ethereum will have parts of its stack eaten by competitors. - On DA: Without looking into where specific chains are posting their data, Celestia's market share > Eth by data posted. Celestia's interop solution will also be faster to market than another other DA layer - I think, as you say, the network effect will be very strong. - Similar to how Bitcoin slowly ossified into being just money, I think Eth will end up being just a settlement layer. Nothing wrong with that, it should do what it's best at! - I think winner takes most will apply in most of the layers - it's definitely top heavy, something like pareto distributed.

Ethereum is a in a weird place - jack of all trades, master of none. Bitcoin is better as money, SVM > EVM for execution and Celestia is better for DA. They've got liquidity, corporate mindshare and devs going for them for now, but I don't know how defensible this is.

Injuries suck - for shoulder pain/rehab I highly recommend looking into using a reverse grip for bench (around 4:10 for info re: shoulders):

Thank you everyone for sharing - really appreciate all the sage advice! We put ourselves on the waiting lists of several daycares, hopefully one comes through before we both return to work That's amazing, I hope I feel the same as you did with your daughters! I'm in Canada - to be clear for it's not fully paid leave, I get a top up for some months and then EI for some other months and then I believe benefits would run out before the 15 are up. As for my wife she is self-employed so she can do whatever she wants but does get some benefits from her professional association. This is such gold, thank you! Nice to see staggering works! We were thinking of doing something similar. Great list, working hard on #7 right now. Congrats on the twins! Definitely need to keep this in mind - I think about the Munger quote where he said his kids think that he's a book with legs sticking out. All respect to Munger but I hope to be more than a book... Congrats!

It seems to me like a good number of the board has kids - I'm looking to get some advice from all the parents of COBAF. We are expecting our first child and one (of the many) decisions I'm trying to make is how much parental leave to take. I was set on taking 1 year because I thought that was the maximum, but my employer actually offers ~15 months. I keep reading how nobody regrets taking more time but is 15 months too long? My situation is: - Work is not that fulfilling but I generally like what I do - I love the thought of just investing full time (don't we all) and I kind of see this as a break to do just that (not sure how much the sleep deprivation will hurt returns...) - Money not an issue (thank you COBAF) and I don't care about hurting my career prospects I want to take 15 because I'm just thinking of all the moments I can spend with the kid and how priceless that is. My wife is going to take 1 year and what I worry about is the 3 months it will be just me and the kid and how I will feel about it. I'm 100% sure I will cherish the time, but being essentially like a stay at home dad... there's something unappealing about that. Even if I lean into being a "investor" I think I would still have a mini identity crisis. I mean I guess these are feelings I'll have to contend with anyways if I ever actually pivot to investing full time while my wife is still working. Am I overthinking? If anyone here has any related experiences they can share or just about parenting in general, I'd love to hear it!

Base fee is burnt, priority fee to miners. https://eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-1559

In another universe we could have been two intellectually honest speculators, gaming out possible scenarios and shaping each others' convictions as we learn from each other. Instead we have you, a self-professed tourist in this space, trying to jiu jitsu a victory out of this instead of taking the L. I am seriously impressed at what mental gymnastics you had to go through to come back with a doctoral thesis about why you weren't utterly wrong. I was looking forward to adding another couple satoshis to my stack but thanks for the entertainment anyways. Narrator: ...he was not a man of his word.