China

[james22]

9 hours ago, Luke said:

Thanks for sharing your limited view! 

 

My limited view is based on having sent several young Saudis to China for a three year assignment.

 

They know fucked and they all said China was fucked.

 

 

Oh yeah, and I've read a little History.

[Parsad]

12 hours ago, Luke said:

 

Investors like @Dinar  and their gross misrepresentations of China are the reason why the opportunity in China exists and I am glad for that because its nothing but a gross misrepresentation. 

 

It's actually not a gross misrepresentation at all.  We had a MRI business in conjunction with an army hospital in Beijing.  When they decided to shut the hospital down and move the patients to a larger hospital, they essentially cancelled our contract with them, told us to do what we want with our equipment and that they would not let us be part of a new MRI clinic in the new hospital.  On top of that, the cash we have in Beijing has been impossible to retrieve back to Canada after 7 years of fruitless efforts by us, lawyers, accountants and other representatives we hired to try and help.  We also had no legal recourse to enforce the binding contract we had, as we were told by several lawyers that the Chinese courts would simply side with Beijing.  

 

While this may not be everyone's experience, it certainly was ours.  I've also spoken to numerous other business people and Chinese expats who were in similar situations or have been harassed by various Chinese government groups/individuals in Hong Kong and Canada due to their vocalness regarding Chinese government policies, practices and a lack of property rights or enforcement of binding contracts.  

 

You can certainly invest and make money in China.  But it carries real risks and issues outside the realm of just market risk.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

8 hours ago, Luke said:

This whole debate about "you can't say anything about China because you don't live in China" is ridiculous. But okay, if you want to go there and "invalidate" anything I say because I have not been there, feel free. I am looking forward to hearing only from people who have been in China on this thread! Have you been in China @nsx5200 and if no, can you stop posting and let people comment who have been in China the last 5 years? Thanks! 

 

I have been in China!  It is a beautiful country that has done absolutely remarkable things historically and especially in the last 20 years.  There is an enormous amount to learn there, and the West would benefit from doing so and understanding the people and culture.  Anything you would want here, you can easily get in China.  For those that have money and bow to the autocracy, you can have a very good life!

 

That is very different than understanding the government which effectually eliminates property rights, enforcement of binding contracts, free speech, criticism of Beijing's policies, legal representation or independent rights endowed to Hong Kong or Taiwan.  It's why so many wealthy Chinese live abroad with dual citizenships, but maintain businesses in China.  They've moved as much capital as they can over time to other countries with true democratic principles and respect for the law and property rights.  Cheers!

[Hektor]

On 8/30/2024 at 10:09 AM, Spekulatius said:

The  banks are taking a bath here with lower interest income, possibly followed by cuts in principal later.

@Spekulatius Your forecast seems to be coming true

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/04/business/china-foreclosures-mortgages.html

 

Foreclosures in China Soar, Threatening to Choke Off Bank Profits

When the housing market was flying high, mortgage defaults were almost nonexistent. But now the legal system is struggling to keep up with evictions.

 

Banks in China are foreclosing on a growing number of apartments after homeowners could not pay their mortgages, as the country’s housing crash threatens the financial system. The roster of homes seized and listed for auction leaped 43 percent last year, according to official data. Numerous Chinese banks have disclosed increases in mortgage defaults during the first half of this year. The downward spiral in apartment prices has since accelerated.

 

The increase in evictions and foreclosures, although still modest by American standards, piles onto pressures on China’s banks. They face other losses related to the real estate meltdown, including on loans to local governments, property companies in default and buyers of unfinished apartments that developers never delivered.

To make matters worse, corporate borrowers in China have long posted real estate holdings as collateral. Bank managers are finding that the collateral is worth much less than when the loans were extended.

[nsx5200]

On 11/3/2024 at 12:46 PM, Luke said:

Have you been in China @nsx5200 and if no, can you stop posting and let people comment who have been in China the last 5 years?

Yes I have.

 

My minor criticism is not with you posting, but rather what you post has been posted in the past, with, IMHO, no real additional new viewpoints or ideas.  Every time new ideas/review/criticism is brought into this forum that might be somewhat critical of China, it bring about a boilerplate-storm that denigrate those posts without actually providing any constructive feedback.  I don't know about others, but that type of behavior lead me to be more hesitant to post anything that might seem critical of China, even though I'd be interested in gaining more perspective or feedback outside of the "that's all wrong, China is awesome".  Again, I value the freely given viewpoints given in the forums, and my minor ask is to reduce the boilerplate storms.  If not, that's okay with me too, as on the grand scheme of things, it's a nothing-burger.

 

Would it be more acceptable if I created a different thread outside of this thread that's titled something along the lines of "China Criticisms" to avoid the type of boilerplate posts?  Let me know.  TIA.

[nsx5200]

15 hours ago, Parsad said:

While this may not be everyone's experience, it certainly was ours.  I've also spoken to numerous other business people and Chinese expats who were in similar situations or have been harassed by various Chinese government groups/individuals in Hong Kong and Canada due to their vocalness regarding Chinese government policies, practices and a lack of property rights or enforcement of binding contracts.  

 

You can certainly invest and make money in China.  But it carries real risks and issues outside the realm of just market risk.  Cheers!

My limited understanding is that to do well in China, you must have buy-in from the people of power (government/party official).  This leads to well known secret to have to grease the wheel(bribes).  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guanxi matters a lot more in China than in other systems like in the U.S.  I was under the impression that non-Asians actually don't need grease the wheel as much since it would discourage FDI.  I guess based on your experience, that might not be the case anymore.  Thanks for your sharing your experience.

[Luke]

Just post here; you shouldn't be hesitant to discuss viewpoints. I should move on from this thread anyways and give more space to others

[nsx5200]

2 hours ago, Luke said:

Just post here; you shouldn't be hesitant to discuss viewpoints. I should move on from this thread anyways and give more space to others

My apologies if I sounded too harsh.  I still appreciated reading about new breakthroughs/changes from China, even if it might be at the detriment of Western world's interest.  Adding the brain power of 1.5b people to the world does, in the long-run, benefit humanity as a whole, and that's always a plus.  A little bit(or a lot) of competition also pushes the incumbents to evolve, and that is also a plus, whether in business or in governing style.

[Gamecock-YT]

On 11/3/2024 at 6:46 PM, Luke said:

\Have you been in China @nsx5200 and if no, can you stop posting and let people comment who have been in China the last 5 years? Thanks! 

 

I have, November 2019 in fact so right at about 4 years and 50 weeks to the day, right before shit started hitting the fan and I have no interest in ever going back! I found people to be rude, unhelpful, and trying to rip you off at every opportunity. The surveillance apparatus was beyond the pale. We're talking 10-12 cameras on every street corner. You knew you were being watched at every opportunity. Nevermind the chinese firewall. Google maps doesn't work, the only western app that worked was Apple maps, which made me lose a lot of respect for the company. Especially when they like to flout their privacy bonafides. 

 

I've also been to Hong Kong post-covid and the city is a shell of its former self.

 

You're welcome.

[Spekulatius]

17 hours ago, nsx5200 said:

My limited understanding is that to do well in China, you must have buy-in from the people of power (government/party official).  This leads to well known secret to have to grease the wheel(bribes).  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guanxi matters a lot more in China than in other systems like in the U.S.  I was under the impression that non-Asians actually don't need grease the wheel as much since it would discourage FDI.  I guess based on your experience, that might not be the case anymore.  Thanks for your sharing your experience.

There is actually no free movement of money out of China. My understanding is thy If a local subsidy generates cash they have to get  government for permission to move cash out. The Yuan isn’t a freely convertible currency either.

 

Typically, I think the  government will allow transfer, but if they have to gripe with you for whatever reason, they may deny your transfer. This can happen for example if you have some beef with local government (didn’t bribe them enough) or could be some lawsuit with another Chinese company that has strong ties with the local government and can make your corporate life there miserable.

 

I am no expert on this and my experience is dated but i did talk to a finance colleague who handled the Chinese sub for a company I worked for quite a few years ago. I don’t think those things have changed.