China

[zippy1]

8 hours ago, Castanza said:

China has always been more advanced than most of its peers throughout history; yet they have never been the conquer type. I agree the world is “smaller” but I’m not sure I see global domination on their horizon. 
 

If anything I can see them merging with Russia and developing Siberia, taking over Mongolia and the rest of Eurasia Steppe far before they try to take on the West. 

Whether China will take on the west first or not, I do not know.
However, China has been expanding since the Zhou dynasty around 1000BCE.   How could it get so big if China did not conquer its neighbors? The original China (Zhou) is just a small fraction of today's China.  
You can see that on the dynamic map on this page.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_expansionism

Edited November 28, 2024 by zippy1

[Spekulatius]

More in n t and shipbuilding. I do wonder if we should get Hyundai to set up a shipyard in the US and build the ships we need, similar to what we do with TSMC:

In any case, working with the Japanese and the Koreans will be key.

[nsx5200]

On 11/27/2024 at 11:02 AM, Castanza said:

So the question is, why did the Chinese not take this 400 year window and dominate the world? They could have easily dominated the age of exploration but chose not to because they are extremely conservative and more focused on preservation. Changes in leadership kept expansion in check and focus on internals. 

Classic Jared Diamond question with his theory in Germs, Guns and Steel:

NotebookLM summary, "Europe's political fragmentation, while seemingly a weakness, ultimately proved to be an advantage in fostering innovation. While one ruler might reject a new idea, another might embrace it, leading to competition and progress."

 

An monolithic autocractic style government can go down the wrong path for a long time, whereas competition amongst fragmented governments will weed out the bad ideas and the good ideas copied, rather quickly, or risk elimination.

 

If I remember correctly, ancient Chinese rulers erroneously ended their sea exploration when they found no other civilization comparable to their, and essentially stopped the flow of new ideas and competition until the post industrial era when Europe landed in China.  "The Last Emperor" captures that time period when old China and the new European-centric world met again, albeit from a limited point of view.

 

Now, the world's gotten much smaller due to the advanced global communications we have, and competition is now on a global scale, essentially for all to see in real-time.  I would claim that all the world leaders now are aware of the competitions, and are no longer so inner-looking.  The true risk for U.S. and Chinese leaders is to make sure they're not selecting their advisors with yes-men, or they risk getting stuck in local minimas.  It makes looking at Trump's cabinet selections a bit more interesting from that point of view.

[Castanza]

9 hours ago, nsx5200 said:

Classic Jared Diamond question with his theory in Germs, Guns and Steel:

NotebookLM summary, "Europe's political fragmentation, while seemingly a weakness, ultimately proved to be an advantage in fostering innovation. While one ruler might reject a new idea, another might embrace it, leading to competition and progress."

 

An monolithic autocractic style government can go down the wrong path for a long time, whereas competition amongst fragmented governments will weed out the bad ideas and the good ideas copied, rather quickly, or risk elimination.

 

If I remember correctly, ancient Chinese rulers erroneously ended their sea exploration when they found no other civilization comparable to their, and essentially stopped the flow of new ideas and competition until the post industrial era when Europe landed in China.  "The Last Emperor" captures that time period when old China and the new European-centric world met again, albeit from a limited point of view.

 

Now, the world's gotten much smaller due to the advanced global communications we have, and competition is now on a global scale, essentially for all to see in real-time.  I would claim that all the world leaders now are aware of the competitions, and are no longer so inner-looking.  The true risk for U.S. and Chinese leaders is to make sure they're not selecting their advisors with yes-men, or they risk getting stuck in local minimas.  It makes looking at Trump's cabinet selections a bit more interesting from that point of view.

Good thoughts thanks for sharing. I do agree the world is not as small as it was, and my very long term view is the world will eventually consolidate under one global leadership. It’s the next logical step as current emerging markets move into modernity. Still a ways off though. 
 

Some of the hindrance China had with sailing was also changes in leadership. One emperor wanted to explore and the next would change direction and literally let the ships rot. 
 

With Trump it is interesting and we shall see. Most risk is mitigated with the 4 year rule in the US imo. 
 

@zippy1 thanks for sharing. I was referring more to expansion abroad in “unknown lands”. Although they did expand within their regional zone China never pushed into America, Africa, or the Middle East, even though they likely did trade or set foot in those areas. 

[Paarslaars]

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/business/2024/12/03/china-bans-exports-to-u-s-

 

China's firing back.

[Blake Hampton]

Am I the only one who thinks that the Chinese property bubble is actually worse than it's been portrayed? I haven't looked too hard at the details and it seems difficult to get good numbers, but it simply seems staggering to me. It's incredible that these developers got away with building entire "ghost cities."

 

I mean my god...

 

 

I was curious if anyone had any special economic insight on this mess.

Edited December 17, 2024 by Blake Hampton

[nsx5200]

4 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

I was curious if anyone had any special economic insight on this mess.

I don't know about insight, but if sh*t like that happened like that in the U.S., tons of companies would be bankrupt, and the relevant resources reallocated.  Yeah, it would be a lot of short-term pain, but things typically recover quicker.  The property situation in China has a lot of similarities to the Japanese Lost Decades right now.  Maybe the Chinese government will eventually realize something bigger needs to be done, and it looks like it's slowly moving in that direction, but it feels like they're still sucking their thumb.  I guess without fixed time-duration election cycles, they can afford to take their time waffling about.  Though that seems to have some negative feedback loop through random violence:

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-races-to-squelch-unrest-as-signs-of-economic-malaise-spread-a2b10065

"China Races to Squelch Unrest as Signs of Economic Malaise Spread
Knife:

attacks and car rammings have officials unnerved about widespread societal discontent"

[Blake Hampton]

When I look at pictures of these massive ghost cities, they also seem like they were built in remote and terrible places. You see these huge skyscrapers that have the capacity for thousands, but yet there is no infrastructure in sight. I'm talking about the basic things like roads, grocery outlets, and the additional items people need to survive. This is especially concerning considering the amount of people they planned on living in these places.

[james22]

Some pointed the finger at the government of China, which they speculate mandated the apparent censorship for reasons unknown. "It is quite unfortunate that they put so much dev effort into making good jiggles but CCP cucked them," yet another redditor contributed, which isn't the most incisive bit of analysis I've ever read, but is pretty funny.

 

https://www.pcgamer.com/games/rpg/gooner-9-11-averted-as-zenless-zone-zeros-butt-obfuscation-technology-is-rolled-back-in-the-face-of-horny-outrage/

[formthirteen]

 

[nsx5200]

4 hours ago, formthirteen said:

A Simplified Chinese transcript to that speech for those that wants a more direct source:

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nwdP3GR-H8-m94NUnlsM-g

[nsx5200]

51 minutes ago, nsx5200 said:

A Simplified Chinese transcript to that speech for those that wants a more direct source:

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nwdP3GR-H8-m94NUnlsM-g

Lots of great insights from Li Liu.  I will probably need to go through it a couple times to fully digest it and think about the implications of some of those ideas.

 

Here are some of the translated quotes that IMHO, are notable, as well as some of my commentaries:

"The first example is about the concept of "land". In the 2.0 agricultural civilization era, land and population are the most important indicators for determining the size of an economy, and the sum of the two basically constitutes the total volume of an economy.[...] Many people who have left their names in history are often related to land expansion or defending land from invasion."

"However, in the 3.0 era of technological civilization, as the economy enters a sustainable, compound growth stage, the reason and driving force for economic growth is no longer land and population."

 

Looking at the actions of the 'strongmen' of the worlds, it seems like their thinking is stuck in the past, and they're trying to leave their mark the old way via conquering land & people.  IMHO, I think it's a pretty good measuring stick for valuing some of the proposals from the incoming U.S. administration.

 

"The most important event was that after World War II, the United States became the first country in human history to return all the territories it had acquired to the original country free of charge after victory in the war."

"The United States bears about 80% of the world's military spending."

 

IMHO, these magnanimous goodwill allows the US to have such a strong influence in the world stage, which in turn, allows the US dollar to be the currency of the world.  It allows the US to borrow and spend that can not be matched by any other country while the rest of the world pays for it.  By holding and using US dollar, other countries are implicitly paying for this world order.  Although the incoming administration got elected on MAGA, the current line-up for their advisors seems to want to maintain a strong US presence on the world stage.  At least that's my hope...

[Blake Hampton]

The WSJ published a really good article that includes some interesting charts and data.

 

China’s Economy Is Burdened by Years of Excess. Here’s How Bad It Really Is.

 

I really believe China is in a bad spot.

Edited January 2 by Blake Hampton

[Blake Hampton]

"China's real estate crunch has vaporized trillions of dollars of household wealth tied up in property, equivalent to around $60,000 per household."

^ Now that is crazy. I remember reading about the ideology of Chinese investors once, and they touched on how investors there didn't favor stocks, they mostly preferred real estate. This seems like a lot of pain, and I think their country is facing some deep systemic issues.

[ICUMD]

15 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

"China's real estate crunch has vaporized trillions of dollars of household wealth tied up in property, equivalent to around $60,000 per household."

^ Now that is crazy. I remember reading about the ideology of Chinese investors once, and they touched on how investors there didn't favor stocks, they mostly preferred real estate. This seems like a lot of pain, and I think their country is facing some deep systemic issues.

Wonder if this reflects the cost of 'bandwagoning' or 'groupthink'.  Everyone jumping on the same asset class at the same time inflating prices well above market through supply demand imbalance. 

 

Nothing like a price correction to recalibrate!

Edited January 2 by ICUMD

[Blake Hampton]

18 minutes ago, ICUMD said:

Wonder if this reflects the cost of 'bandwagoning' or 'groupthink'.  Everyone jumping on the same asset class at the same time inflating prices well above market through supply demand imbalance. 

 

Nothing like a price correction to recalibrate!

I hope you’re not trying to draw parallels.

 

Something like this could never happen in the United States!

[ICUMD]

@Blake Hampton haha!

 

Probably an important consideration across many asset classes. Whether you consider housing prices, AI, crypto etc.

 

Key thing is not to hold when the music stops.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

3 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

"China's real estate crunch has vaporized trillions of dollars of household wealth tied up in property, equivalent to around $60,000 per household."

^ Now that is crazy. I remember reading about the ideology of Chinese investors once, and they touched on how investors there didn't favor stocks, they mostly preferred real estate. This seems like a lot of pain, and I think their country is facing some deep systemic issues.

 

Perhaps this is what drives the wealth of the country towards stocks vs real estate and is long term bullish? 

[Spekulatius]

Probably need more than a slap on the wrist to prevent this going forward:

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2025/01/05/2003829674
 

Als the more reason shadow fleet taken care of. Look at this rust bucket!

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.ft.com/content/38f1e51b-83b8-45cb-9cbf-2bc63f18e6ce

 

 

Quote

Chinese venture capitalists are hounding failed founders, pursuing personal assets and adding the individuals to a national debtor blacklist when they fail to pay up, in moves that are throwing the country’s start-up funding ecosystem into crisis. The hard-nosed tactics by risk capital providers have been facilitated by clauses known as redemption rights, included in nearly all the financing deals struck during China’s boom times.

 

 

One of the top comments to the article:

 

Quote

This is one of the bottlenecks throttling entrepreneurial activity in China: the failure to comprehend the limited liability corporate structure. Domestic investors, backed by the regulators, essentially expect VC returns but only want to bear bond-level risk. I have written before that while China had made progress in recent decades developing rule of law, with courts, precedents, and other things necessary for commercial expansion, that process never reached completion and under Xi has gone into reverse. This is why foreign VC was so important in China. At a macro level China exported low-risk capital through its current and capital accounts and then imported high-risk venture capital through Western institutions that understood the business. That was the basis of China's technological modernization and innovation. Now that due diligence is illegal, however, foreign law firms, VC funds, and accountancies are withdrawing from the country and Beijing is learning, a day late and a renminbi short, that you can't have capitalist returns unless you have a capitalist economy.

 

This is hilarious...these guys just don't understand capitalism at a fundamental level

 

Edited January 6 by Dalal.Holdings

[zippy1]

18 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Probably need more than a slap on the wrist to prevent this going forward:

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2025/01/05/2003829674
 

Als the more reason shadow fleet taken care of. Look at this rust bucket!

There is a Chinese patent on how to cut the underseas cable with low cost. 
"本发明公开了一种拖曳式海底电缆切割装置及其电缆切割方法。现有需要一种快速、低成本的海底电缆切割装置。本发明的拖环固定在主杆一端，主杆另一端固定有两块翼板；两块翼板的一个侧面位于对称中心线处固定有一个锚钩，另一侧面位于对称中心线处也固定有一个锚钩；两个锚钩内侧均固定有切割刀，且每把切割刀与两块翼板之间均设有一块导铁，导铁与两块翼板均固定；铁链一端与固定在拖船上的拉力传感器固定，另一端与切割锚的铁链固定。本发明的拖船通过铁链拖动切割锚切割电缆，实现了切割锚直接在海底钩住电缆并快速切断电缆，且从拉力传感器和回收切割锚后检查切割刀上是否有残留铜屑两方面确认电缆切割是否完成，可靠性强。"
Translated this with ChatGPT
 

This invention discloses a towed submarine cable cutting device and its cutting method. Currently, there is a need for a fast and cost-effective submarine cable cutting device. In this invention, a towing ring is fixed at one end of the main rod, while two wing plates are fixed at the other end. On one side of the two wing plates, a grappling hook is mounted at the centerline of symmetry, and another grappling hook is mounted on the opposite side at the same centerline. Cutting blades are fixed inside both grappling hooks, and a guide iron is installed between each cutting blade and the two wing plates, which are also fixed to the guide iron.

One end of the iron chain is connected to a tension sensor mounted on the tugboat, while the other end is attached to the chain of the cutting anchor. The tugboat tows the cutting anchor using the iron chain to cut the cable. This enables the cutting anchor to directly hook and quickly sever the cable on the seabed. The completion of the cable cutting is confirmed by checking the tension sensor and inspecting the cutting blades for residual copper debris after recovering the cutting anchor, ensuring high reliability.

https://patents.google.com/patent/CN111203499A/zh

[Luke]

 

Pretty good take on the current situation

[Luke]

23 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Probably need more than a slap on the wrist to prevent this going forward:

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2025/01/05/2003829674
 

Als the more reason shadow fleet taken care of. Look at this rust bucket!

Regarding Taiwan this comment is thought provoking, by Adam Tooze:

 

 

 

 

Edited January 7 by Luke

[Luke]

It was probably a huge strategic mistake by western elites to internationally isolate Taiwan so much but at the same time support so much of its high tech growth.

[zippy1]

7 minutes ago, Luke said:

Regarding Taiwan this comment is thought provoking, by Adam Tooze:

 

 

 

 

It is thought provoking because he completely ignore that there are 25 million people living on the island and most of these do not want to be ruled y CCP, I suppose..