Bonds!

[Paarslaars]

6 minutes ago, Red Lion said:

Shit I wish I was confident in any of those. I’m not confident in much of anything right now. 

It is better to not be confident in anything than to be confident in something where you're wrong.

 

Oil is a cemetery filled with overconfidence.

[SharperDingaan]

9 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:

Oil is a cemetery filled with overconfidence.

 

Just to add to this .....

If you are going to play in the patch, it is very much in your interest to ensure that you have worked in the patch you're investing in, for at least 2-3 years, ideally through a downturn. You have to learn how to survive, how to thrive under adversity and ambiguity, how to work with all kinds of people, and how to adapt to opportunity. It's a lot of fun, but it's also all about knowing what you want, and ability to manage risk.

 

As most people can't do that ..... the cemetery fills up quick 

 

SD

[Castanza]

 

[tede02]

This CLO ETF caught my attention as a cash subsititute. Symbol is PAAA. Run by PGIM fixed income. Portfolio is AAA paying a yield >5.5% with basically no duration (floating rate). 

Edited April 17, 2025 by tede02

[Stuart D]

 

[backtothebeach]

Odd Lots podcast

Mitu Gulati on Whether Trump Could Restructure US Debt

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mitu-gulati-on-whether-trump-could-restructure-us-debt/id1056200096?i=1000703968744

[cubsfan]

On 4/12/2025 at 11:22 AM, Blake Hampton said:

 

There is no thesis—he's simply so patriotic that he feels it's his duty to provide liquidity for our government.

 

The gentleman you're referring to is one of the most respected and most helpful on this board.

Always has been. 

 

I'm not a bond buyer in general, but I never discount his outlook.

[gfp]

It's OK mike - I'm a big boy and I've already realized over 5% gains on those government bonds in a few days with another unrealized 500 shares of ZROZ at a $64.046 cost basis for another $1,242 gain at the moment.  Is 5% in a week good for government paper?

 

Let Blake have his philosophical victory and I'll keep my $11,729.91 that I didn't have a week ago.  I'm up 12% year to date in a choppy market.  I'm in a good mood.  Look out below...

 

Onwards and upwards gents.  These markets are much more exciting than some low volatility sideways at all time highs BS

[Gregmal]

2 minutes ago, gfp said:

It's OK mike - I'm a big boy and I've already realized over 5% gains on those government bonds in a few days with another unrealized 500 shares of ZROZ at a $64.046 cost basis for another $1,242 gain at the moment.  Is 5% in a week good for government paper?

 

Let Blake have his philosophical victory and I'll keep my $11,729.91 that I didn't have a week ago.  I'm up 12% year to date in a choppy market.  I'm in a good mood.  Look out below...

 

Onwards and upwards gents.  These markets are much more exciting than some low volatility sideways at all time highs BS

I still remain amused at how Blake refuses to answer the question you and several others have now asked multiple times relating to how his current ideology has stacked up over his investing career when it comes to the only scoreboard that matters. 
 

Seems more interested in the ideology and bias than the performance /results relating to his process which is usually a sign of someone who’s already rich…so who knows.

[John Hjorth]

On 4/13/2025 at 8:52 PM, Red Lion said:

Shit I wish I was confident in any of those. I’m not confident in much of anything right now. 

 

It will very likely serve you well, @Red Lion.

[gfp]

Well I don't want to gang up on him, partly because I like messing around with him and don't want him to quit the board.  But a lot of young investors don't know their track record because they don't keep track of their performance in any sort of systematic way and the balances are usually very small with a lot of cash flows in and out.  Maybe at tax time they see if they owe anything or not...

[cubsfan]

42 minutes ago, gfp said:

It's OK mike - I'm a big boy and I've already realized over 5% gains on those government bonds in a few days with another unrealized 500 shares of ZROZ at a $64.046 cost basis for another $1,242 gain at the moment.  Is 5% in a week good for government paper?

 

Let Blake have his philosophical victory and I'll keep my $11,729.91 that I didn't have a week ago.  I'm up 12% year to date in a choppy market.  I'm in a good mood.  Look out below...

 

Onwards and upwards gents.  These markets are much more exciting than some low volatility sideways at all time highs BS

 

Shit, that's what I mean. Knowing how to make money in a sideways market, a skill I don't possess.

 

There's a lot to be learned here.

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, gfp said:

Well I don't want to gang up on him, partly because I like messing around with him and don't want him to quit the board.  But a lot of young investors don't know their track record because they don't keep track of their performance in any sort of systematic way and the balances are usually very small with a lot of cash flows in and out.  Maybe at tax time they see if they owe anything or not...

 

I like him too. He's a very bright young man. He could learn a ton here.

[gfp]

1 minute ago, cubsfan said:

 

Shit, that's what I mean. Knowing how to make money in a sideways market, a skill I don't possess.

 

There's a lot to be learned here.

 

Buying US government bonds that yield over 5% in a weakening economy that isn't at any immediate risk of heating up right away is not a super risky move, despite the long duration.  The only reason I go way out with those ZROZ strips is because they move so damn much!  Otherwise I wouldn't go past the 20 year sweet spot.

[cubsfan]

46 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

Buying US government bonds that yield over 5% in a weakening economy that isn't at any immediate risk of heating up right away is not a super risky move, despite the long duration.  The only reason I go way out with those ZROZ strips is because they move so damn much!  Otherwise I wouldn't go past the 20 year sweet spot.

 

That's a very helpful explanation - particularly the reasoning behind the trade. Thanks!

[gfp]

10 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

That's a very helpful explanation - particularly the reasoning behind the trade. Thanks!

 

I'm a bit of a broken record on Treasury bond yields when they get above 5%...  Just imagine you are an insurance company and the market won't let you lock in T-bill rates for 1, 2, 3 or 5 years but you can get over 5% on a 20 year government bond.  Maaayyybeee you nibble.

 

 

[treasurehunt]

4 hours ago, cubsfan said:

The gentleman you're referring to is one of the most respected and most helpful on this board.

Always has been. 

 

I'm not a bond buyer in general, but I never discount his outlook.

 

Absolutely. I think gfp is the gold standard of posters here. It's a little disappointing to see a gratuitous slam against him.

[gfp]

1 hour ago, treasurehunt said:

 

Absolutely. I think gfp is the gold standard of posters here. It's a little disappointing to see a gratuitous slam against him.

 

It wasn't - don't worry about it.  Blake had written to me privately about his world view and concerns and me buying long bonds right after reading his message might have seemed like a 'gratuitous slam' against him!

 

Blake is worried about different stuff than I am and that's OK.  We don't actually know who is "right" yet

 

I remember a book I had 20 years ago or so called "being right or making money" I think it was by Ned Davis.  It's not on the shelf anymore.  The book wasn't anything special but that title always stuck with me.

Edited April 19, 2025 by gfp

[gfp]

I had my orders in and ready but UST long bonds did not hit my magic yield of 5%+ today.  There's always tomorrow!

[hasilp89]

14 minutes ago, gfp said:

I had my orders in and ready but UST long bonds did not hit my magic yield of 5%+ today.  There's always tomorrow!

don’t these hit the mark?

[gfp]

Looks like you found one that did - the 20 and 30 year index prices didn't touch 5% - yet (at least that my little ole computer showed)

[gfp]

7 minutes ago, hasilp89 said:

don’t these hit the mark?

 

That's a good example of the illiquidity of an off-the-run treasury.  That was probably a 30 year bond yielding 2.5% and trades today at a discount to an on-the-run, fresh 20 year issue.  Because of the lack of liquidity I guess

[hasilp89]

4 minutes ago, gfp said:

Looks like you found one that did - the 20 and 30 year index prices didn't touch 5% - yet (at least that my little ole computer showed)

Fidelity has a nice search function for it. Copied the Cusip into ibkr.

following you into this one for a bit of fun (eyes wide open of course)

[rogermunibond]

Long dated high grade corporate issuers could be deal if the US long bonds keep moving out.

[Eldad]

41 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

That's a good example of the illiquidity of an off-the-run treasury.  That was probably a 30 year bond yielding 2.5% and trades today at a discount to an on-the-run, fresh 20 year issue.  Because of the lack of liquidity I guess

Or because the return is more back loaded towards 2045. Current cash yield would be way below a newer issue with a higher coupon even with the discount. Cash yield is almost 100 bps lower. 3.7ish vs 4.7ish.