Russia-Ukrainian War

[John Hjorth]

Kuppys working hypothesis - It's killing me! 

 

[Viking]

28 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

So another hyped up, American media created cocktail, that turns out impotent. Nice.

Really? You might want to look at any news service in the world right now… China, middle east etc… their lead story? Shit show in Russia. Nothing to do with the American media. Bit you can believe that if it makes you feel better  
 

Impotent? Describes what Russia is being reduced to… 

 

 

[Gregmal]

Yea. Sure. Tell us more about Russia sabotaging pipelines, false flag drone attacks on the Kremlin, and that dam strike! This whole thing has been laughable. The EU nat gas crisis. Zelenskys 11 figure grift, China invading Taiwan next. Oh boy.

[John Hjorth]

Nothing of what has happened since last evening local European time to the time of the U-turn by Yevgeny Prigozhin this evening  about 200 kms south of Moscow adds up in a meaningful total picture to me.

[changegonnacome]

Most plausible explanation to me so far that I’ve seen - this was a coup “fire drill” - Putin wanted to flush out any real potential insurrectionists…with a fake insurrection…..the FSB had eyes and ears out to see whom made any moves against the regime in the last 24hrs….very useless info gathered.

Edited June 24, 2023 by changegonnacome

[cubsfan]

50 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Yea. Sure. Tell us more about Russia sabotaging pipelines, false flag drone attacks on the Kremlin, and that dam strike! This whole thing has been laughable. The EU nat gas crisis. Zelenskys 11 figure grift, China invading Taiwan next. Oh boy.

Yeah that’s our corrupt state media alright.

 

Not too far from Pravda..

[james22]

Seems Prigozhin was being pushed out by Shoigu and so had to take his shot.

 

Once he found he didn't have air support and so couldn't advance on Moscow, he then had to take the deal offered (Shoigu dealt with, Wagner amnesty, and exile).

 

Putin actually may come out pretty well if he can now blame the war on Shoigu and Prigozhin out of the picture.

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, james22 said:

Seems Prigozhin was being pushed out by Shoigu and so had to take his shot.

 

Once he found he didn't have air support and so couldn't advance on Moscow, he then had to take the deal offered (Shoigu dealt with, Wagner amnesty, and exile).

 

Putin actually may come out pretty well if he can now blame the war on Shoigu and Prigozhin out of the picture.

Mr Pringles is dead. He will fall out of a windows or die by another misfortune soon enough. Good riddance. This whole situation also has been developing for a while, because Pringles has run his mouth fairly large,  and pulled most his Wagner back from the front after they took Bahkmut.

 

I am not sure anyone thinks this is fabricated story. it may not go anywhere, because I don’t think Pringles/ Wagner has any support by the Russian populace or military but the clash was reported in alternative sources first (just like anything else) not MSM and the sources showed credible material including Wagner guys and tanks controlling Rostov. This is not fake news at.

 

It does show what a shithole Russia and its army has become. It will be interessant what is going to happen at foreign Wagner bases in Syria, Sudan etc. Will they still be Russian or are they now privateers? Can we even tell.

[Gregmal]

It’s not “fake” but my god we ve been hearing about all these super big deals with massive global implications and major incoming consequence from all the usual suspects since February of last year. And the result? Nada. Wheat futures are volatile. Lol big deal. -30% oil prices? People have been trying to scream “HUGE STORY” with this Russia/Ukraine thing, for reasons I don’t quite understand, and as someone who is just looking at investment angles…find it both annoying and bizarre. 

[james22]

4 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

Most plausible explanation to me so far that I’ve seen - this was a coup “fire drill” - Putin wanted to flush out any real potential insurrectionists…with a fake insurrection…..the FSB had eyes and ears out to see whom made any moves against the regime in the last 24hrs….very useless info gathered.

 

Won't like what he's learned.

 

In Rostov-on-Don, where people are applauding and chanting 'Wagner is Power' as Wagner fighters pack up to return "according to plan." Wagner's "March for Justice" was a significant litmus test that shows whom Russians actually support.

 

After Wagner withdrew from Rostov-on-Don, protestors came out against the police, chanting "shame on you" and waving Wagner flags. Russians are now even more united in their view that the state is corrupt, cowardly, and inept.

[james22]

39 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Mr Pringles is dead. He will fall out of a windows or die by another misfortune soon enough.

 

He has to know that.

 

But he only has to outlive Putin.

[Spekulatius]

The problem for Putin is that he could be losing his army and then it’s over for him. the coup didn’t go anywhere, but I think there will be lingering longer term consequences from this. His special military operation now has turned inside Russia for once. Everyone know with even a bit of deductive reasoning in Russia now know that things have turned shit, especially the army leadership. At some point the top dog becomes the target.

 

I have little doubt that  Putin survives this coup, but I also think he comes out of this greatly weakened.

Edited June 25, 2023 by Spekulatius

[John Hjorth]

It seems like the western confusion is rising all over the place in MSM here Sunday morning in Europe over what actually happened in those 24 hours or so from Friday evening European Time, which to me actually is a bit comforting making me feel less dumb.

 

Weird and crazy Saturday, having the two main Danish TV News channels streaming simultaneusly on a laptop during the whole day, listening to one of them, shifting between them regularly.

 

I still can't get all the bits and pieces to add up to a coherent and consistent picture of things. Perhaps it is just because it's about that chaotic hellhole called Russia, where normal logical thinking is ... the name of a village in Eastern Sibiria.

 

The only thing I feel fairly confident about is that this was not a non-event. Maybe the coming days will provide clarity to some degree, ... maybe not.

Edited June 25, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Luca]

3 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

It seems like the western confusion is rising all over the place in MSM here Sunday morning in Europe over what actually happened in those 24 hours or so from Friday evening European Time, which to me actually is a bit comforting making me feel less dumb.

 

Weird and crazy Saturday, having the two main Danish TV News channels streaming simultaneusly on a laptop during the whole day, listening to one of them, shifting between them regularly.

 

I still can't get all the bits and pieces to add up to a coherent and consistent picture of things. Perhaps it is just because it's about that chaotic hellhole called Russia, where normal logical thinking is ... the name of a village in Eastern Sibiria.

 

The only thing I feel fairly confident about is that this was not a non-event. Maybe the coming days will provide clarity to some degree, ... maybe not.

+1

[Xerxes]

This whole episode can be summed up as :  

 

the enemy of my enemy is my enemy !?!?! Huh !

[John Hjorth]

8 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

This whole episode can be summed up as :  

 

the enemy of my enemy is my enemy !?!?! Huh !

 

@Xerxes,

 

I think we should stay careful not to oversimplify things here. The below explanation compared to yours above seems to me to be just a bit more granular here, and with shades and nuances :

 

 

 

[Viking]

14 hours ago, Gregmal said:

It’s not “fake” but my god we ve been hearing about all these super big deals with massive global implications and major incoming consequence from all the usual suspects since February of last year. And the result? Nada. Wheat futures are volatile. Lol big deal. -30% oil prices? People have been trying to scream “HUGE STORY” with this Russia/Ukraine thing, for reasons I don’t quite understand, and as someone who is just looking at investment angles…find it both annoying and bizarre. 

You might want to ask a European if Russia’s invasion was a big deal (game changer) or not. My guess is many would disagree with your take. Energy supply to Europe has been changed forever. Cheap and abundant energy is the core building block of every society. Europe having the warmest winter on record was an important factor - an awesome development. The UK is an inflation shit show right now. High energy prices are now bleeding though to wage spiral. Finland is not part of NATO. The Ukraine war is not over. 
 

And we just learned how fragile (and messed up) Russia is. I’m not sure if your aware, but they have a few nuclear weapons… that is a fat tail risk (getting fatter). Not an issue until it is - i’m not sure but i have heard that nuclear weapons can really be a bitch when they are used. Now we can pretend that this risk does not exist… but this isn’t a Disney movie.

Russia invading Ukraine has also ‘informed’ the rest of the world on China (multinational companies understand what is coming) and this is accelerating de-globalization. Totalitarian governments and liberal democracies are like dogs and cats…  I think the US (and everyone else in the West) is looking to on-shore important stuff - like chip production (FYI, not the potato kind).
 

Remember, prices cycle up. And down. And then back up… Perhaps we never see $100 oil again. Possible. 

 

I could go on. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine did change the world - economically, politically and militarily. And it is still early days. It will take years (a decade or more?) to fully understand how much. Now i will agree that someone living in rural America or Canada is not being impacted all that much. To them it is probably looking like a big nothing burger.

 

Please note, this is not a doom and gloom summary. I continue to be very optimistic. Change is inevitable and usually a good thing (over time). The West will continue to improve the standard of living for its people. That’s why so many people desperately want in.

Edited June 25, 2023 by Viking

[John Hjorth]

Personally, I think it's fair to say, that what @Viking has posted just above related to the similar last post by @Gregmal has - not only some - but a lot of merit.

 

It is about North America not in any way being dependent on energy sourcing from Russia, while it in the past [long term and short term] has been totally different for Europe.

 

Please feel free here to send your rotten tomatoes and eggs my way. So much for being - in the first place - naive - later - naive and dumb.

 

The change to get this right for the long haul going forward for Europe - is - by its inherent logic and its nature - quite brutal for about every European citizen, exactly as brutal as it is for Russia.

Edited June 25, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Xerxes]

5 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

@Xerxes,

 

I think we should stay careful not to oversimplify things here. The below explanation compared to yours above seems to me to be just a bit more granular here, and with shades and nuances :

 

 

 

 

lol. 
 

On a different note who would have thought, even in the early days of 2022, that there would be joker-like-character turned warlord that would capture so much bandwidth, and hurl so many insults at Kremlin in a back and forward comedy show, then march to Moscow only to turn around. Oh and his name is Putin’ Chef but he is not really the chef at the Kremlin. 
 

 

[Xerxes]

Thank god the Secretary of State dumbed it down for mere mortals in the west. 

 

[ValueArb]

It will be interesting to see if this leads to Putin and the Russian MoD pulling their most loyal units back into Russia. It was shockingly easy for Wagner to turn on Moscow, and there are likely more angry soldiers and opportunistic generals for them to fear.

[dwy000]

Okay I really know nothing about the military aspect or anything here at all.  But why couldn't Putin control Wagner through the checkbook?  They are a private army funded by the Russian government and supplied by the Russian government.  Why couldn't Putin just stop funding?  Without the money to pay the soldiers and buy everything from food to ammo wouldn't Wagner Group in Russia slowly just fall apart?  It's not like they have their own funding source in Rubles and access to equipment and supplies in Russia without the government support?

[no_free_lunch]

There is likely more going on than we realize.  It doesn't all make sense.   There is a claimed rebellion but there is not large scale fighting and casualties as you would expect.  Surely the Russian army could halt a convoy of road based vehicles if they felt the need.   It seems to be all threats, maneuver.   In a few months we may understand better what this was about.  For now, I feel it is probably just noise, perhaps intentionally so.

Edited June 26, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[John Hjorth]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[formthirteen]

Quote

“Yesterday the defenders of Russia decided to seize power in Russia. Therefore, other defenders of Russia flew to kill the first defenders of Russia, but they themselves got killed. And the Hero of Russia Prigozhin went to kill the Hero of Russia Shoigu. Because of this, the Hero of Russia Kadyrov went to kill the Hero of Russia Prigozhin. And because of this, the Hero of Russia Bortnikov opened a case against the Hero of Russia Prigozhin but immediately closed it. Because the most important hero of Russia, Putin, first guaranteed that the traitors would be punished, and then guaranteed that they would not be. And no one gives a damn about those very first defenders who were killed. The main thing is that they are all defenders and heroes, and we can continue to be proud of what heroic defenders Russia has.“

 

https://twitter.com/NatalkaKyiv/status/1673024897046462467