Russia-Ukrainian War

[SharperDingaan]

This is Russia.

All that is certain, is that change, when it comes, will be both swift and brutal (as his 'supporters' will need to be rapidly terminated as well). The well-worn path by many a future dictator, is a supporter suddenly becoming an assassin, with bounty payments offered, to help the successor get up and running.

 

Thing is; there can only be one successor, and 'president for life' has a different meaning. Game theory typically favors the 'next in line', and not the initiator; hence everything remains 'stable', until suddenly it isn't, and chaos prevails for a period as the old 'helper network', makes way for the new. Initiation, sets off a chain of events, that successors have to survive. Failure is a pine box.

 

As the return has to be worth the risk, every existing dictator has a 'grace period'.

Fail in the Ukraine, and Putin very likely enters it. Whether dead via 'regime change', or dead via 'war crime prosecution', the outcome is still 'dead' - but he lives longer if he focuses on the former.

 

The man is very good at what he does, but everybody eventually get 'old'. 

Our own view is that China is the king-maker. Trigger being a threat to turn off access to the Chinese banking system; but until then, why work the orange when you are already getting its juice?

 

SD

 

[Gregmal]

The real winner of the war is graphic t shirt, bumper sticker and flag makers. Nothing says go get em like virtue signaling Americans. 
 

interesting question, there’s people with slogans saying “we stand with Ukraine”. That’s nice, but, does it make any difference. What if it said “we don’t stand with Ukraine”? Any difference? So if no to both, what’s the point? Last I checked we still weren’t REALLY doing anything to actually help. 

[no_free_lunch]

19 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

The real winner of the war is graphic t shirt, bumper sticker and flag makers. Nothing says go get em like virtue signaling Americans. 
 

interesting question, there’s people with slogans saying “we stand with Ukraine”. That’s nice, but, does it make any difference. What if it said “we don’t stand with Ukraine”? Any difference? So if no to both, what’s the point? Last I checked we still weren’t REALLY doing anything to actually help.

The US has donated 2000 javelin AA missiles and 7000 ATGMs.  Plus tens of thousands of rifles and body armor sets.  I really doubt the offensive would have been halted without that.

 

You like to play devils advocate which is supremely useful in investing but not as useful in geopolitics when lives are on the line. 

 

Regardless, I stand with Ukraine. 

[Spekulatius]

20 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

The US has donated 2000 javelin AA missiles and 7000 ATGMs.  Plus tens of thousands of rifles and body armor sets.  I really doubt the offensive would have been halted without that.

 

You like to play devils advocate which is supremely useful in investing but not as useful in geopolitics when lives are on the line. 

 

Regardless, I stand with Ukraine. 

I agree. The very real aid that the US and the Europeans gave to the Ukraine is changing the outcome.

I also think that dumping the Russian NG in the long run will change energy policy. This is not virtue signaling.

 

The US has fought many wars and some were worth fighting and other were not. This one is worth fighting, imo.

[Gregmal]

I am always curious about psychology. And its bemused me a little bit over the past couple weeks seeing all the flags, bumper stickers, and whatnot. It doesnt serve any purpose that means anything towards an outcome, and in a way, kind of says something about the person. Im not totally sure what, and obviously it can differ person to person, but essentially, they are doing something that is totally useless. It is no different than having a Yankees sticker on your car. Whether you have the sticker or not, it has no bearing on whether or not they beat the Red Sox. But everyone who sees your car thinks..."that guys a sports fanatic".

 

Disclosure I am not a flag flyer or sticker toter so maybe Im just missing something.  

[no_free_lunch]

I agree that you need to back it with something.  I back my statements with donations of goods to the refugees in my city , yes they are here, and dollars to Ukrainian army.

 

Ultimately it comes down to, war has a critical psychology element. This is why Nazi's had swastika, Russia has Z.  The least we can do is have a stand with Ukraine.  People need to keep their resolve when they see prices going up and when there are nuclear threats from Russia.  Otherwise it becomes Vietnam and why do we have to make sacrifices. 

[Spekulatius]

45 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

I agree that you need to back it with something.  I back my statements with donations of goods to the refugees in my city , yes they are here, and dollars to Ukrainian army.

 

Ultimately it comes down to, war has a critical psychology element. This is why Nazi's had swastika, Russia has Z.  The least we can do is have a stand with Ukraine.  People need to keep their resolve when they see prices going up and when there are nuclear threats from Russia.  Otherwise it becomes Vietnam and why do we have to make sacrifices. 

Yes, the psychological aspect should not be underrated. In fact if anything , it has caught many by surprise that people actually do care (just read the early comments here) about Ukraine. Politicians see this too and adjust accordingly. Classical reflexivity at work here - perception can change the outcome.

 

This applies to investing and even more so to politics or even wars.

[lnofeisone]

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-marines-surrender-russia-mariupol/31801246.html

 

Unconfirmed but not denied either. I've also read several unconfirmed reports that Russia has started using precision missiles and small special ops against various targets such as ammo depots, underground command centers, and airfields. I think Russia is adjusting on the battlefield and in the info sphere.

[SharperDingaan]

If you live in the former Russian republics, and have had the war experience; you have a very different POV.

A Russian success in the Ukraine means you're next - and your best defense against a destroyed future, and your cities being turned into rubble 'AGAIN' - is to do whatever you can to foil Russia's Ukraine advance. 

 

You are also very aware that when good people don't act, when they can - the result is another Hitler. And that help ... can come in a great many different ways.

 

Kids/moms/grandparents need to be got out, re-hosted, and de-traumatized somewhere safe. They are the Ukraine's future - and the return ticket 'home'. Thereafter, the focus shifts to slaughtering Russian troops - as ruthlessly, and brutally as possible.

 

Every time something moves in a Russia, there is a record, and it is a very leaky boat. Everything from accumulation of evidence for war crime prosecution, through to the bank accounts, smuggling conduits, fuel and ammunition stores/locations, and all in near real-time volumes. 'Cause the more you have to pay the sanctions breaker, the less there is for you. Death by suffocation.

 

Weapons, and intelligence inflows are an easy thing. Lend/lease a little more difficult, when its live time, and a drop from a high-tech drone with a target lock. Other vehicles are just proofs of concept.

 

State craft is to states, and for very good reason.

However most would think that the clock on Russia is rapidly ticking down. 

 

Keep scanning your daily copy of Pravda!

https://english.pravda.ru/

 

 

SD

 

    

 

Edited April 13, 2022 by SharperDingaan

[no_free_lunch]

3 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-marines-surrender-russia-mariupol/31801246.html

 

Unconfirmed but not denied either. I've also read several unconfirmed reports that Russia has started using precision missiles and small special ops against various targets such as ammo depots, underground command centers, and airfields. I think Russia is adjusting on the battlefield and in the info sphere.

I suspect the surrender is true. They have been cut off for over a month and have been street fighting the whole time.  They claimed they had no ammunition left a couple days ago and that surrender was imminent.

 

Hopefully the Russian side allows the civilians who want to return to Ukraine to do so but I doubt that is in the cards.

[Spekulatius]

11 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

I suspect the surrender is true. They have been cut off for over a month and have been street fighting the whole time.  They claimed they had no ammunition left a couple days ago and that surrender was imminent.

 

Hopefully the Russian side allows the civilians who want to return to Ukraine to do so but I doubt that is in the cards.

Yes, there are videos around on reddit that look authentic. The siege of Mariupol is on it's last legs.

[Pelagic]

It would appear Ukraine managed to sink the Moskva, the flagship of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea. Russia is claiming an ammunition storage issue aboard. Either scenario represents an almost unfathomable degree of ineptitude on the part of the Russian Navy. 

[Spekulatius]

10 hours ago, Pelagic said:

It would appear Ukraine managed to sink the Moskva, the flagship of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea. Russia is claiming an ammunition storage issue aboard. Either scenario represents an almost unfathomable degree of ineptitude on the part of the Russian Navy. 

Fake news. Kremlin:

Moskva destroyed Ukraine drone, completed fire drill. All Russian sailors who evacuated the ship are safe.

[SharperDingaan]

Sadly it still floats .... for now. Last month it was the the tank carrier Orsk, hit and set on fire in the Sea of Azov. And the chopper attack on an oil storage facility inside Russia 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-flagship-black-sea-fleet-badly-damaged-by-blast-2022-04-14/

 

These were little missiles, and proofs of concept - sailors walked away.

Much better ones are widely available, and they do kill ships in a single blow. Take the precision guided missiles off the table, or lose your fleet? 

 

SD

Edited April 14, 2022 by SharperDingaan

[Spekulatius]

5 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

Sadly it still floats .... for now. Last month it was the the tank carrier Orsk, hit and set on fire in the Sea of Azov. And the chopper attack on an oil storage facility inside Russia 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-flagship-black-sea-fleet-badly-damaged-by-blast-2022-04-14/

 

These are little missiles, and proof of concepts - sailors walked away.

Much better ones are widely available, and they do kill ships in a single blow. Take the pecisio9n guided missiles off the table, or lose your fleet? 

 

SD

The russian black sea fleet being damaged is important because they currently blockade the last and most important Ukraine harbor, which is Odessa. this is imporant because grain shipments are typically coming via Odessa.

 

Ukraine a while ago stated that 2/3 of the fields were seeded this year, so there is a chance that a decent grain harvest is possible and that this grain can make it out.

 

I think sooner or later, NATO will force the Russian fleet to abandon the blockade if they don't go away by themselves or as part of a peace deal.

 

Will be interest to find out what exactly happened and if it's true that Russian ship defenses can't handle more than one incoming target.

 

Again I said it before - if your army/ navy / air force  has bought a lot of Russian material, I would seriously consider how much that is worth. Turkey for example has some pretty good stuff, if you need it cheaper than US/EU/UK can provide.

 

With Russian tanks popping turrets, IFV vehicles exploding after getting hit from bombs dropped from consumer grade drones, Helicopters getting into Russian air space and ships getting damaged because the defense system was overwhelmed means you bought a bunch of obsolete scrap.

Edited April 14, 2022 by Spekulatius

[no_free_lunch]

I don't buy that the Russian ship had an accident. Too much of a coincidence.  I suspect there will be more accidents to ships in that area.   For sure even Russia sources have confirmed it is damaged and will need repairs. 

[Pelagic]

7 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

Sadly it still floats .... for now. Last month it was the the tank carrier Orsk, hit and set on fire in the Sea of Azov. And the chopper attack on an oil storage facility inside Russia 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-flagship-black-sea-fleet-badly-damaged-by-blast-2022-04-14/

 

These were little missiles, and proofs of concept - sailors walked away.

Much better ones are widely available, and they do kill ships in a single blow. Take the precision guided missiles off the table, or lose your fleet? 

 

SD

 

All things in good time.

 

 

[Xerxes]

[Spekulatius]

Very good presentation on the economical side of the war:

It’s interesting that you can get this type of analysis from a no-name account (at least for me) on YouTube. The likes of CNBC have nothing of this sort at all, not even close.

[no_free_lunch]

This could be significant. Possible reaper drones to Ukraine. My only concern is whether there will be enough given the scale of the fighting.  However it all helps and for sure this will bring fear on the steppe. 

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelpeck/2022/04/13/ukraine-may-get-us-mq-9-reaper-strike-drones/?sh=4e025c355b3b

Edited April 15, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[SharperDingaan]

11 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:

This could be significant. Possible reaper drones to Ukraine. My only concern is whether there will be enough given the scale of the fighting.  However it all helps and for sure this will bring fear on the steppe. 

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelpeck/2022/04/13/ukraine-may-get-us-mq-9-reaper-strike-drones/?sh=4e025c355b3b

 

Think of them as lend/lease.

Lend as operation/maintenance by offshore independent contractors over Ukraine airspace, feeds tied to AI facial/body recognition. Lease of the weapons dropped under target lock. Different weapons for different targets.

 

Bounty on the high-value target split between the Ukraine and the contractor, Ukraine portion paying the lend. No play, no pay. The more on the card deck, and the higher the bounty, the better - capitalism at its best, 

 

Dirty deeds, done dirt cheap???? AC/DC ....

 

SD

 

 

Edited April 15, 2022 by SharperDingaan

[james22]

So why is Russia losing so many tanks, so many crewmen?

The answer can be found in two things: Russia’s ongoing demographic collapse and the Russian military’s sad lack of training.

 

https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2022/04/13/ukraine-war-have-missiles-made-tanks-obsolete-n1589423

 

...consider the last time Russia suffered such a humiliating naval defeat, in the 1904-1905 Russo-Japanese war, that defeat precipitated massive loss of prestige, unrest, military revolt, and revolution in 1905 and was a major nail in the coffin of Tsarist Russia...

 

https://smallwarsjournal.com/index.php/jrnl/art/why-russias-navy-ukraine-war-doomed-or-irrelevant

[no_free_lunch]

It seems Russia can only play games when the rules are in their favor.  Attack a Ukrainian city, fair play.  Ukraine attacks a Russian city, out of bounds.

 

 

[lnofeisone]

Found this mildly entertaining (Russian embassy in DC)

and of course the musical version of it

 

 

[berkshiremystery]

 

 

Some of latest video footage of the Moskva in flames >>>

 

 

.....

 

.....

 

Again, I say that the targeting was probably done by the contractor Skynet-like Ai, that was in the payload of a recent SpaceX flight in the last 4 weeks. This emerging Ai-grid from space can to analysis 24/7 real time and forward simulated games.  The small **Cassandra** minded investor community in the footsteps of Michael Burry see the potential of their thesis at work for the first time. The CEO, only probably didn't expect, how it works this perfectly. Comparing AI to most lethal weapon in human history isn't comforting, but as Elon already said before, if you can't stop it, join it. Elon transported this contractor Ai with SpaceX, which is also currently placed in the core of Amazon AWS. This should be considered a very brilliant DUNE-like chess move, if Besos also using  the ¨same¨contractor Ai as Elon. The chess figures of snake oil are moving, visible. 

 

Cheers!

Edited April 15, 2022 by berkshiremystery