Russia-Ukrainian War

[Viking]

10 minutes ago, Lazarus said:

Putin set out his demands to end the war on multiple occasions. Most recently, he set out his demands in a phone call with the leader of Turkey (who passed on the message). Putin is asking for (1) no NATO in Ukraine,  Ukraine stays neutral; (2) recognize Crimea as Russia, plus various other smaller demands (get rid of "nazis", some demands for Donask or wherever, and some other stuff).

 

The big demands relate to NATO and Crimea, and Zelensky has already acquiesced to giving up on NATO and Crimea is already a done deal. So they will haggle over the minor stuff and make concessions so that they can both save face and claim victory. This conflict is almost over. 

“This conflict is almost over” i hope you are right. 
 

i wonder what land Putin now wants to carve out of Ukraine. I think he wants all of south Ukraine to Odesa. And also a big swath of Eastern Ukraine (not just the 2 regions from 2014).
 

I also wonder what military he will allow Ukraine afterwards. My guess is he will demand they demilitarize. Which of course would allow Putin to come back in a few years and finish the job.

[Xerxes]

On 3/20/2022 at 1:10 PM, Spekulatius said:

The hypersonic Khinzal missile is probably just as useful than the V1 was in WW2, it’s more propaganda than anything else. It does not matter much if they have it - it’s a very expensive weapon to use in any case, considering that the Russian don’t seem to even have a lot of conventional precision guided missiles.

If we are doing analogies I ll go with V2, in terms of being fast making it invincible. 
 

The hypersonic dagger goes as fast as 6,000 km per hour. God that is fast ! This was just a opportunity to test it without its nuclear warhead. 
 

another Russian doomsday weapon that is scary (it’s name escapes me) is a nuclear torpedo that detonates near coastal era, unleashing a tsunami …. Or so the legend goes !

 

there is yet another one which is fully classified. But we have a picture. 
 

[changegonnacome]

27 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

To be fair, I think Viking meant what Putin really wants. I.e what will really bring closure. Not just the formal demands.  

 

Closure IMO will involve further destruction of the major cities...........I made a comment up thread that you should think of the Russian army as not an invading force or an occupying one........you should think of them like a demolition crew..........the question then with this framework is what level of destruction will Putin deem sufficient such that Ukraine is crippled & hobbled for a generation.

[Gregmal]

The answers to most issues/problems are out there. The truth isnt hard to see if you want to. You just have to find it. There will always be differing nonsense available to feed ones biases, the internet in general and MSM assure this. Same as all the question marks with China, the Fed, Russiagate 2017, etc. There were people who hoarded cash and gold through the most glorious decade in investing history because they had sources they got duped into believing were credible feeding them what they wanted to hear for the entirety of it. They insisted on relying on those sources either out of fear or out of pride; but bottom line is they could have realized their thesis was shit when it didnt work for the first few years but they chose to stick with it rather than change course and start making money.

 

Nonetheless you know you are getting taken for a ride when things just never quite seem to work out the way they're advertised. And its why people so often end up selling when they should be buying or buying when they should be selling. In a certain way, everything is kinda rigged. 

[Xerxes]

@changegonnacome

 

 admitingly I think most of us (me anyways) had our central tenet of belief turned upside down when it comes to Russian military in 2022.  
 

NATO reigns supreme, while the emperor has no “conventional” clothes (except for 6,000 km/h Dagger and other Doomsday machines).
 

Even the massive $600 billion FX/gold didn’t help it if there was no market to trade FX.
 

I think there is possibility sometimes from now, that this war will be seen as a trap set for Putin by the globalists with poor Ukraine as a bait. Once Putin walked in …. “Look at the crumbs on his jacket. He did it !!” 
 

 

[Xerxes]

Greg

sorry what is MSM. I have seen this few times. Do you mean MSNBC?

[Gregmal]

Mainstream Media. NYT, Wapo, Fox, CNN, MSNBC. Under that is the smaller but even more insidious offshoots. Stuff like Huffington Post or Atlantic. Basically the storytellers who have 90% marketshare because of the herds/tribes. The truth is almost NEVER what these guys are peddling. Its either somewhere in between or often THE EXACT OPPOSITE. This matter is only made worse and compounded now by the censorship of big tech. 

[Viking]

45 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

The answers to most issues/problems are out there. The truth isnt hard to see if you want to. You just have to find it. There will always be differing nonsense available to feed ones biases, the internet in general and MSM assure this. Same as all the question marks with China, the Fed, Russiagate 2017, etc. There were people who hoarded cash and gold through the most glorious decade in investing history because they had sources they got duped into believing were credible feeding them what they wanted to hear for the entirety of it. They insisted on relying on those sources either out of fear or out of pride; but bottom line is they could have realized their thesis was shit when it didnt work for the first few years but they chose to stick with it rather than change course and start making money.

 

Nonetheless you know you are getting taken for a ride when things just never quite seem to work out the way they're advertised. And its why people so often end up selling when they should be buying or buying when they should be selling. In a certain way, everything is kinda rigged. 

I tell my kids that if something is not going right in their world - and they want to fix it - that they should start by looking in the mirror. No bitching and complaining. And especially no victim think. If you want a great life… make it happen. Not that complicated. And investing is the same. 

 

Edited March 23, 2022 by Viking

[Viking]

One of many, many examples of badly Putin has miscalculated with the invasion of Ukraine.

—————

Finland makes massive shift towards NATO, majority now support joining

- https://www.foxnews.com/politics/finland-shows-strong-support-for-nato-poll

 

Results from Autumn 2021 found only 26% of the population supported joining NATO, but following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that number has leapt to 60% support for NATO membership. The same percentage of Finns support taking a decision this year on the matter.
 

Historic support for joining NATO has remained low, with the previous peak in Autumn 1998 showing just 28% support. 
 

The study clearly cited Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as responsible for the shift in opinion. 

 

"The change is beyond comparison, both in terms of size and speed," EVA noted. The survey sampled over 2,000 responses from across a range of ages 18 to 79. 

 

"The change in attitudes observed in the survey is a result of the Finns’ reaction to the change in their security environment, which seems to have left the old security policy philosophy, which had dominated in Finland for many years, without a foundation." 

 

The study said that Russia has shown it "does not respect its neighbor’s sovereignty" and made real the "terrible nature of a defensive war fought on a country’s own territory." 
 

Finland and Russia share a particularly hostile history, most notably culminating in the Winter War of 1939 during which the Soviet Union attempted to invade Finland at the start of World War II. 
 

The Soviet Union suffered devastating losses estimated between 126,000 and 168,000 troops dead or missing. Finland lost just shy of 26,000 troops. The Soviet Union cited security concerns and demanded borderland territory from Finland, even establishing a puppet Finnish Communist government known as the Finnish Democratic Republic, which the Soviets used as justification to invade Finland. 

Edited March 23, 2022 by Viking

[Blugolds]

2 hours ago, Viking said:

One of many, many examples of badly Putin has miscalculated with the invasion of Ukraine.

—————

Finland makes massive shift towards NATO, majority now support joining

- https://www.foxnews.com/politics/finland-shows-strong-support-for-nato-poll

 

Results from Autumn 2021 found only 26% of the population supported joining NATO, but following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that number has leapt to 60% support for NATO membership. The same percentage of Finns support taking a decision this year on the matter.
 

Historic support for joining NATO has remained low, with the previous peak in Autumn 1998 showing just 28% support. 
 

The study clearly cited Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as responsible for the shift in opinion. 

 

"The change is beyond comparison, both in terms of size and speed," EVA noted. The survey sampled over 2,000 responses from across a range of ages 18 to 79. 

 

"The change in attitudes observed in the survey is a result of the Finns’ reaction to the change in their security environment, which seems to have left the old security policy philosophy, which had dominated in Finland for many years, without a foundation." 

 

The study said that Russia has shown it "does not respect its neighbor’s sovereignty" and made real the "terrible nature of a defensive war fought on a country’s own territory." 
 

Finland and Russia share a particularly hostile history, most notably culminating in the Winter War of 1939 during which the Soviet Union attempted to invade Finland at the start of World War II. 
 

The Soviet Union suffered devastating losses estimated between 126,000 and 168,000 troops dead or missing. Finland lost just shy of 26,000 troops. The Soviet Union cited security concerns and demanded borderland territory from Finland, even establishing a puppet Finnish Communist government known as the Finnish Democratic Republic, which the Soviets used as justification to invade Finland. 

 

The old Soviets got a lesson in SISU!

[Spekulatius]

Crazy - a village destroyed a Russian armored column:

 

[no_free_lunch]

Russian sources are claiming they delivered an ultimatum to the Mariupol defenders. Surrender today but after that point it is no quarter. Russian sources not Ukrainian, so I will take them at their word.

 

Also reports of tribunals being created for war crimes and nazi behavior. Whatever that means, I don't want to know but it sounds like the beginning of mass murder.

 

Just the tip of the iceberg but those pushing theories of surrender are missing the plot. As though this is a simple change of power.  They really have no choice but to keep fighting because so many will be killed if they give up their weapons.  Better to die on their own terms. Even if the odds are low, at least there is some chance. 

 

 

Edited March 24, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Xerxes]

I am not sure I understand this comment about “those pushing theories” or whatever that suppose to mean.
 

People in Mariupol got to do what’a right for them. No one knows that better than themselves. Not even Zelensky and certainly not people who are “pushing theories” behind the safe keyboards.  

when we are talking (at least me) i am talking is at Zelenski level. And this is not a theory nor a movie. His decisions will change the course of history.  
 

I bet he didnt know that 12 months ago, back in spring of 2021, the immense weight that he would be carry on his shoulders. 

Are we really surprised about the kangaroo tribunal being set up, given that Biden had said Putin is war criminal. There is always tit for tat, and this is not a theory. 

[Viking]

1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said:

Russian sources are claiming they delivered an ultimatum to the Mariupol defenders. Surrender today but after that point it is no quarter. Russian sources not Ukrainian, so I will take them at their word.

 

Also reports of tribunals being created for war crimes and nazi behavior. Whatever that means, I don't want to know but it sounds like the beginning of mass murder.

 

Just the tip of the iceberg but those pushing theories of surrender are missing the plot. As though this is a simple change of power.  They really have no choice but to keep fighting because so many will be killed if they give up their weapons.  Better to die on their own terms. Even if the odds are low, at least there is some chance. 

 

It is not a fluke that Serbia is Russia's one supporter in Eastern Europe today. The Ukraine civilian population is in deep shit in Mariupol. Check out what Serbia did during the Yugoslav wars...

 

I wonder if Ferguson back then would have counseled Albanians, Croats and Bosniaks to lay down their arms and given up (the whole 'war is worse than the alternative' thing)?

----------

War Crimes:

- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbia_in_the_Yugoslav_Wars

Numerous war crimes were committed by Serbian military and Serbian paramilitary forces during the Yugoslav Wars. The crimes included massacres, ethnic cleansing, systematic rape, crimes against humanity and genocide. The International Court of Justice, cleared the Republic of Serbia of direct involvement in genocide, but found that it had failed to prevent mass killings, rapes, and ethnic cleansing.[39]

 

The war crimes were usually carried out on ethnic and religious grounds and were primarily directed against civilians (Albanians, Croats, Bosniaks). Several United Nations bodies have judged that the aim of these war crimes in various wars was to create an ethnically pure Serbian state, or "Greater Serbia", encompassing Serbia as well as the Serb-populated areas in former Yugoslavia.[10][15]

Edited March 24, 2022 by Viking

[Xerxes]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Crazy - a village destroyed a Russian armored column:

 

the security camera footage at the beginning of the clip showing the Russian tanks rolling in looks like something like the movie Seven Samurai, when the bandits walk in.
 

 

[Xerxes]

6 minutes ago, Viking said:

 

It is not a fluke that Serbia is Russia's one supporter in Eastern Europe today. The Ukraine civilian population is in deep shit in Mariupol. Check out what Serbia did during the Yugoslav wars... I wonder if Ferguson back then would have counseled Albanians, Coats and Bosniaks to lay down their arms and given up (the whole 'war is worse than the alternative')?

----------

War Crimes:

- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serbia_in_the_Yugoslav_Wars

Numerous war crimes were committed by Serbian military and Serbian paramilitary forces during the Yugoslav Wars. The crimes included massacres, ethnic cleansing, systematic rape, crimes against humanity and genocide. The International Court of Justice, cleared the Republic of Serbia of direct involvement in genocide, but found that it had failed to prevent mass killings, rapes, and ethnic cleansing.[39]

 

The war crimes were usually carried out on ethnic and religious grounds and were primarily directed against civilians (Albanians, Croats, Bosniaks). Several United Nations bodies have judged that the aim of these war crimes in various wars was to create an ethnically pure Serbian state, or "Greater Serbia", encompassing Serbia as well as the Serb-populated areas in former Yugoslavia.[10][15]

Was General Lemay responsible for war crimes. If not why not ?

 

Was General Westmoreland responsible for war crimes. If not why not ?

 

There are no saints. 
 

I am for one glad that NATO stepped in and stopped Serbia. But guess what, 25 years is not today. And Serbia did not have nukes and Russia was not strong enough than to protect it. 

[Xerxes]

Mao is probably responsible for 30 million death give or take 5 million. Not mention keeping Pyongyang on a life line when his “volunteers” crossed the Yalu River sent back the Americans south of the 38th Parallel. PRC & US were in state of war for more than 20 years from the Korean War till mid-1970s:
 

Were Kissinger and Nixon wrong to go there and break bread with the mass murderer and formally recognize China and dump Taiwan. No. it made sense. The stakes were MUCH higher, than what happened 20 years ago. 

Edited March 24, 2022 by Xerxes

[Spekulatius]

20 hours ago, Lazarus said:

Putin set out his demands to end the war on multiple occasions. Most recently, he set out his demands in a phone call with the leader of Turkey (who passed on the message). Putin is asking for (1) no NATO in Ukraine,  Ukraine stays neutral; (2) recognize Crimea as Russia, plus various other smaller demands (get rid of "nazis", some demands for Donask or wherever, and some other stuff).

 

The big demands relate to NATO and Crimea, and Zelensky has already acquiesced to giving up on NATO and Crimea is already a done deal. So they will haggle over the minor stuff and make concessions so that they can both save face and claim victory. This conflict is almost over. 

I think what you are omitting is that Putin also asks for Complete "de-militarization" of the Ukraine. If you think this through, it means unconditional surrender. This was essentially Plan A if it had worked. The Ukraine would be out of their mind to agree to this.

 

"De-Nazifaction" is another one. Look up what this means for the Russians.

[Spekulatius]

12 hours ago, Xerxes said:

the security camera footage at the beginning of the clip showing the Russian tanks rolling in looks like something like the movie Seven Samurai, when the bandits walk in.
 

 

If this isn't Hollywood movie material, I don't know what is.

 

On another note, this may have been a strategically important battle. The footage is from 3-2-2022 when the Russian were moving forward and we know that one vector was going northwest from Kherson and around Mykailov to split Ukraine into two and get towards Odessa. This was I think the furthest  the Russians ever got and it was quite important that the Russians were stopped there and had to retreat. Maybe this village "saved" the Ukraine? Sounds crazy.

 

I also wonder how they learned to shoot the Stingers. I think the mayor may have military experience.

 

Edited March 24, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

Often it is the aggregate of small things that changes the course of the war. The battle at the airport in the early days of the war (already been a month!) was probably instrumental as well as Zelensky’s initial appearance. It ceased to be “special operation” for average Russian troops and general staff the moment that initial onslaught failed. 
 

it is clear that the Russian army does not want to fight this war *cough* special operation.
 

There is funeral of a Russian read-admiral (I think) on YouTube. He was born in Ukraine and died fighting for Kremlin. You can imagine how conflicted everyone is. Shooting brothers and sisters. 
 

Russian killed 20,000 people during the siege of Grozny. No one bat an eye.

[Xerxes]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60859337.amp

 

Russian warship destroyed in occupied port of Berdyansk, says Ukraine

[Dinar]

15 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Often it is the aggregate of small things that changes the course of the war. The battle at the airport in the early days of the war (already been a month!) was probably instrumental as well as Zelensky’s initial appearance. It ceased to be “special operation” for average Russian troops and general staff the moment that initial onslaught failed. 
 

it is clear that the Russian army does not want to fight this war *cough* special operation.
 

There is funeral of a Russian read-admiral (I think) on YouTube. He was born in Ukraine and died fighting for Kremlin. You can imagine how conflicted everyone is. Shooting brothers and sisters. 
 

Russian killed 20,000 people during the siege of Grozny. No one bat an eye.

Absolutely.  In the video by the way, all the interviews are in Russian, not Ukranian!   And yes, I love Kurosawa, Rashomon is fantastic, albeit not in the samurai theme.

[no_free_lunch]

14 hours ago, Xerxes said:

I am not sure I understand this comment about “those pushing theories” or whatever that suppose to mean.
 

People in Mariupol got to do what’a right for them. No one knows that better than themselves. Not even Zelensky and certainly not people who are “pushing theories” behind the safe keyboards.  

when we are talking (at least me) i am talking is at Zelenski level. And this is not a theory nor a movie. His decisions will change the course of history.  
 

I bet he didnt know that 12 months ago, back in spring of 2021, the immense weight that he would be carry on his shoulders. 

Are we really surprised about the kangaroo tribunal being set up, given that Biden had said Putin is war criminal. There is always tit for tat, and this is not a theory. 

Oh im talking about these theories that the country is better off without weapons and Im pushing against anything that goes against them fighting.  Maybe we can give them just a little bit of respect and assume they know what's best for their country?  If they need weapons give them the weapons.

 

We armed Afghanistan against the Soviets back in the day and somehow they actually won that one.  The Americans failed in Vietnam despite huge efforts and that was at their peak.  Given the incompetence of the Russian army perhaps Ukraine can actually hold them off. However they are going to need more than manpads. Ultimately they will need to launch offensives.  More and more powerful weapons are needed. 

 

What we really need are new fronts against Russia.  Shutting down the gas flow to Europe would be one.  Syria, Chechnya, Georgia, now is the time.  Would be a good time for Sweden and Finland to join NATO too.  Russia is stretched right now, what are they going to do?   They have said themselves they only use nuclear when the homeland is attacked.

[Blugolds]

Biden says Western leaders discussed food shortages, which he says will be "real"

US President Joe Biden said leaders discussed the possibilities of food shortages triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Biden said food shortages will be "real," and he called Ukraine and Russia the "breadbasket" for Europe.

Supplies from the two countries together account for almost 30% of global wheat trade.

"The price of the sanctions is not just imposed upon Russia. It's imposed upon an awful lot of countries as well, including European countries and our country as well," Biden said in remarks after an emergency NATO meeting in Brussels.

"We had a long discussion in the G7 with ... both the United States, which has a significant — the third largest producer of wheat in the world — as well as Canada, which is also a major, major producer. And we both talked about how we could increase and disseminate more rapidly food ... In addition to that, we talked about urging all the European countries and everyone else to end trade restrictions on sending, limitations on sending food abroad. So we are in the process of working out with our European friends what it would be, what it would take to help alleviate the concerns relative to food shortages," he said.

Biden also mentioned a "significant" US investment model for humanitarian assistance, which would include food.

Separately, French President Emmanuel Macron laid out the details of a proposed EU-led food security initiative designed to alleviate the risk of food shortages caused by the war.

“This situation will create a food crisis, extremely serious humanitarian situations in several countries and are sure to have massive political consequences in several countries,” Macron said at a news conference in Brussels on Thursday.

According to a document circulated by the Elysée, Russia is the top exporter of wheat worldwide (33 million tons in 2021) with Ukraine not far behind (fourth largest exporter, with 20 million tons in 2021).

The document estimates 27 mostly African and Middle Eastern countries source over 50% of their wheat from Russia or Ukraine.

The three-pronged initiative spelled out in the document would rely on measures, such as making crisis stockpiles of grain available to “avoid any shortages and keep prices down,” raising production thresholds, and stepping up investments in sustainable agriculture in the most-affected countries.

 

 

The "breadbasket" has been mentioned before...people will stomach higher prices at the pump...but if food increases even more, similar to construction materials (2-3x) and people will REALLY feel it. Never in my lifetime have I gone to the grocery store and literally seen 80% of store shelves empty, but it happened during COVID, possible that we see that again? 

[Gregmal]

With this administration, its definitely possible. I ve made a fortune betting on their incompetence.