Russia-Ukrainian War

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, benchmark said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/09/business/dealbook/09db-browder-russia-santions.html

 

Bill Browder's view is that this is likely going to drag on for a long time.

I agree on this. Putin miscalculated and now his only real off ramp is in a coffin and that's not likely to happen

 

He is trying to create facts on a battlefield, moving the tip of the spear to Donbas and create a breakthrough there. Donbas is better for him from a military POV, because supply lines are shorter and the land is more open. This should be an advantage for large tank armies and artillery and disadvantage hit and run tactics the Ukrainian have been using.

 

Now the war has morphed into a weird version of WW1 with powerful defense weaponary,  airplanes barely relevant because of AA defense systems, Spotting Drones and Artillery being a powerful combo ( airplanes were first used as spotters for artillery in WW1) and the Rockets / Javelins neutralizing tanks.

 

Russia needs to break through the Ukrainian front, which most likely will try with a large tank force similar to Kursk trying to overwhelm the Ukraine and create a break through the front.

 

If you study the Russian army doctrine, then you know that 15-20k dead won't deter them from trying and rolling the dice. If this attack fails or even if it only partly succeeds, then this war is going to take a long time.

 

Regardless of the outcome, we are looking at a new iron curtain getting erected between Russia and Europe.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Spekulatius

[no_free_lunch]

38 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I agree on this. Putin miscalculated and now his only real off ramp is in a coffin and that's not likely to happen

 

He is trying to create facts on a battlefield, moving the tip of the spear to Donbas and create a breakthrough there. Donbas is better for him from a military POV, because supply lines are shorter and the land is more open. This should be an advantage for large tank armies and artillery and disadvantage hit and run tactics the Ukrainian have been using.

 

Now the war has morphed into a weird version of WW1 with powerful defense weaponary,  airplanes barely relevant because of AA defense systems, Spotting Drones and Artillery being a powerful combo ( airplanes were first used as spotters for artillery in WW1) and the Rockets / Javelins neutralizing tanks.

 

Russia needs to break through the Ukrainian front, which most likely will try with a large tank force similar to Kursk trying to overwhelm the Ukraine and create a break through the front.

 

If you study the Russian army doctrine, then you know that 15-20k dead won't deter them from trying and rolling the dice. If this attack fails or even if it only partly succeeds, then this war is going to take a long time.

 

Regardless of the outcome, we are looking at a new iron curtain getting erected between Russia and Europe.

I agree. I just hope the iron curtain stays up.  Been reading too many stories about rape and torture from the Russian side.   Let's throw away the niceties, this is what it really is.

[SharperDingaan]

There has been quite a bit of time to prepare for Donbas, and a lot of people have a commercial need to demonstrate the effectiveness of their advanced weaponry on live targets. Those open lands are killing fields, and a strategic sinking will do wonders for sales. As would predator drones successfully decapitating Russian leadership.

 

Turning Donbas into rubble simply makes pro-Russian sentiment, very anti-Russian; as will the mass termination of large segments of population to maintain fear. Obviously, it doesn't go well for Russian conscripts, or their leadership. A failure, also demonstrates that the czar is weaker than thought, and raises opportunities .....

 

There is no point to live demonstration, without video proof.

Lots of lovely images beaming into Russia.

 

SD

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

53 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

There has been quite a bit of time to prepare for Donbas, and a lot of people have a commercial need to demonstrate the effectiveness of their advanced weaponry on live targets. Those open lands are killing fields, and a strategic sinking will do wonders for sales. As would predator drones successfully decapitating Russian leadership.

 

Turning Donbas into rubble simply makes pro-Russian sentiment, very anti-Russian; as will the mass termination of large segments of population to maintain fear. Obviously, it doesn't go well for Russian conscripts, or their leadership. A failure, also demonstrates that the czar is weaker than thought, and raises opportunities .....

 

There is no point to live demonstration, without video proof.

Lots of lovely images beaming into Russia.

 

SD

 

 

 

 

Well, if you bought a lot of Russian weapons, you may want to ask for a refund. It's difficult to blame this disaster on operator error entirely. Turkey for example will sell a lot of drones for sure. The Bayraktar is basically a simpler Reaper drone at 1/4 of the price and with twice the payload (due to using non-powered glide bombs rather than hellfire missiles).

 

Turkey has a lot of good stuff in terms of military equipment (small tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, rockets). I bet it will sell like hotcakes since the Turkish lira is also cheap.

 

Also keep in mind that the US shares satellite surveillance with Ukraine so it is exactly known to them where, with what and with how much the Russians will be attacking.

 

I know for fact that the Maxar pics we are seeing in newsreels are not state of the art. The real mil grade surveillance is much better than that using high resolution optics, IR and what not. State of the art satellite imagery can likely read a license plate if it points upwards.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Spekulatius

[SharperDingaan]

Remember the Falklands War?

The sinking of the HMS Sheffield made the Exocet missile famous (and sold hundreds). Sink one of the larger Russian sea-borne cruise missile launchers, in a single strike, and you too will sell hundreds of these. Your existing inventory will also instantly double/triple in value on the back market - and the launch of that missile ..... could come from anywhere.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/oct/15/revealed-full-story-behind-sinking-of-falklands-warship-hms-sheffield    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exocet

 

The updated version of the 'Warthog' is the 'Gunslinger', a remote controlled drone. One has to assume that there are at a least a few 'Beta' versions about, with similar weaponry, that need to 'prove concept' - on ideally, live targets. Tank killers, built for open land killing fields, beaming back simultaneous video? The more sophisticated versions hunting people?

 

Doesn't look good for the conscripts.

 

SD

[Viking]

I used to follow Gwynne Dyer when i was younger for his international political reporting. He has been posting a few things on Russia/Ukraine.

- https://gwynnedyer.com

—————
Do the Russians Have War in Their Blood?
https://gwynnedyer.com/2022/do-the-russians-have-war-in-their-blood/

 

“The Russians are deluded, but it’s a delusion that has struck almost all the former European colonial powers after they lost their empires. You might call it ‘post-imperial muscle memory’, like the phantom sensation that an amputated leg is still there even after it’s gone. It generally involves several foredoomed wars.

 

The peak period for this was 1950-1975, when the French, the British and the Portuguese each fought several futile wars to hang on to their colonies, or at least to ensure that ‘friendly’ regimes inherited power after independence: Algeria and Vietnam; Kenya and Cyprus; Angola and Mozambique.

 

The Russian empire died much later (1991), partly because it was a land empire, with lots of Russians settled in all the colonies, and partly because it pretended not to be an empire for its last seventy years, calling itself the Soviet Union instead. So most Russians don’t even grasp the connection with decolonisation elsewhere.

 

But it is really the same transitory phenomenon, with the same inevitable outcome. The Russians don’t really have war in their blood permanently. No more than everybody else does, anyway.“

 

Edited April 11, 2022 by Viking

[SharperDingaan]

Denial works until the body bags show up. The grieving process is exploitable for a short time, then you lose control. Country Joe And The Fish: And you can be the first ones in your block. To have your boy come home in a box. And its one, two, three. What are we fighting for?

 

Putin remains, only so long as he is useful to the regime, and the clock is ticking. 

Time at the top is a limited term engagement; no matter who you are, or where you are. 

 

Colonialists are widely unpopular today, but the fact is they knew their stuff, and were very good at the colonizing 'process'. Local 'strong men' were routinely installed for roughly 10 years, then 'turned over' in favor of the next generation. Long enough to dictate as they wished, but not long enough to accumulate enough power to threaten the colonizing regime. When costs > benefits, you simply granted 'independence'.

 

SD

 

Edited April 11, 2022 by SharperDingaan

[Blugolds11]

17 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

Remember the Falklands War?

The sinking of the HMS Sheffield made the Exocet missile famous (and sold hundreds). Sink one of the larger Russian sea-borne cruise missile launchers, in a single strike, and you too will sell hundreds of these. Your existing inventory will also instantly double/triple in value on the back market - and the launch of that missile ..... could come from anywhere.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/oct/15/revealed-full-story-behind-sinking-of-falklands-warship-hms-sheffield    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exocet

 

The updated version of the 'Warthog' is the 'Gunslinger', a remote controlled drone. One has to assume that there are at a least a few 'Beta' versions about, with similar weaponry, that need to 'prove concept' - on ideally, live targets. Tank killers, built for open land killing fields, beaming back simultaneous video? The more sophisticated versions hunting people?

 

Doesn't look good for the conscripts.

 

SD

 

Was watching some things about new tech in weaponry and it was really interesting. The use of drones is quickly becoming the new preferred fighting ability. I remember years ago seeing a movie that had a drone "swarm" that would attack...hundreds of bird sized drones that acted as a collective seeking out targets, both human or mechanized and detonating. I remember thinking it was scary and how would you stop it, short of some kind of EMP etc...seemed futuristic at the time but from what I have seen now it is either available or not far off. 

 

 

 

 

[SharperDingaan]

It is s simple thing to link AI facial recognition to a digital feed from a drone.

Thereafter, it's just whether execution is automatic or subject to a manual oversight.

 

In the Ukraine? Maybe it's a drone swarm over a munitions/fuel convoy/dump.

Alternatively, an airborne cannon that can quickly be rearmed in the field. It doesn't have to look pretty, it just needs to demonstrate proof of concept, and be able to work in the dark.

 

SD

[no_free_lunch]

I think tank killer swarms could probably be built today using commercial hardware and small teams.  You can buy ones today for the $5k range that can fly 100 kmph and stay aloft for hours.  They already have obstacle avoidance, autopilot and object tracking.  Maybe just a little programming required to recognize mil targetsband an attack mode but it already has the basic setup via object follow features.   There are some issues around GPS jamming and low light that need effort but it all has solutions available.

 

I think humans can be hunted with the same or similar it's just still a bit expensive for that use case given the limited Ukrainian budget. 

 

[Spekulatius]

22 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

I think tank killer swarms could probably be built today using commercial hardware and small teams.  You can buy ones today for the $5k range that can fly 100 kmph and stay aloft for hours.  They already have obstacle avoidance, autopilot and object tracking.  Maybe just a little programming required to recognize mil targetsband an attack mode but it already has the basic setup via object follow features.   There are some issues around GPS jamming and low light that need effort but it all has solutions available.

 

I think humans can be hunted with the same or similar it's just still a bit expensive for that use case given the limited Ukrainian budget. 

 

Well, what you describe are essentially the Switchblade suicide drones. The Israelis (Elbit) have a similar design, I believe.

Edited April 12, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Aurel]

21 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I know for fact that the Maxar pics we are seeing in newsreels are not state of the art. The real mil grade surveillance is much better than that using high resolution optics, IR and what not. State of the art satellite imagery can likely read a license plate if it points upwards.

Do you have good sources on this topic? I am quite interested in this topic and would appreciate some recommendations.

[Spekulatius]

19 minutes ago, Aurel said:

Do you have good sources on this topic? I am quite interested in this topic and would appreciate some recommendations.

I don't. I do work in the industry and knew some people who worked on high end drones and satellite optics specifically a while ago. I am sure there is some material out there, but the exact capabilities are certainly classified.

[SharperDingaan]

Think weapons and operators as free - a simple $ investment in the brand.

Simple case: Cannon + supersonic ammunition on a tripod, supported by X rotors. Military grade vision/feeds, 60-90 minute battery life. Pops up, fires its burst, pops down; sound hits the target after the bullets do. Rearmed with new ammunition and battery packs, in the field. Recharge the batteries off solar.

 

Simpler case: Drone swarm carrying magnetic limpid mines. A few attack, most settle amongst the dead tanks and switch off. A while later, switch back on, deposit the mine over live tank engines/magazines, fly home. Mines go off, drones rearm with new mines/battery packs in the field.

 

Tanks, artillery, and choppers die. In large quantities, and for cheap.

 

SD

Edited April 12, 2022 by SharperDingaan

[Spekulatius]

7 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

Think weapons and operators as free - a simple $ investment in the brand.

Simple case: Cannon + supersonic ammunition on a tripod, supported by X rotors. Military grade vision/feeds, 60-90 minute battery life. Pops up, fires its burst, pops down; sound hits the target after the bullets do. Rearmed with new ammunition and battery packs, in the field. Recharge the batteries off solar.

 

Simpler case: Drone swarm carrying magnetic limpid mines. A few attack, most settle amongst the dead tanks and switch off. A while later, switch back on, deposit the mine over live tank engines/magazines, fly home. Mines go off, drones rearm with new mines/battery packs in the field.

 

Tanks, artillery, and choppers die. In large quantities, and for cheap.

 

SD

I suggest a consumption based model. Order Satellite images for free - its on you to identify target  - and order the drone strike with a button. Pay once you see the destroyed target.

[no_free_lunch]

45 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Well, what you describe are essentially the Switchblade suicide drones. The Israelis (Elbit) have a similar design, I believe.

Yes.  I am just suggesting there is an option to develop similar tech outside the mil industrial complex.  Similar but cruder end product and in much higher volumes.  It's a bit of a numbers game and you could see Ukraine getting 10s of thousands with this homegrown method.

[Spekulatius]

46 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

Yes.  I am just suggesting there is an option to develop similar tech outside the mil industrial complex.  Similar but cruder end product and in much higher volumes.  It's a bit of a numbers game and you could see Ukraine getting 10s of thousands with this homegrown method.

Switch blades drones are not that expensive - about $6K/ unit. High end consumer drones are 3K and are worse for this purpose (slower, don't have payload, not compatible with other weapon systems). Not everything made for the military is expensive. You would be surprised how little GPS controlled glide bombs cost - I think it's a only few thousand $. That's a lot of bang for the buck.

[Blugolds11]

25 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Switch blades drones are not that expensive - about $6K/ unit. High end consumer drones are 3K and are worse for this purpose (slower, don't have payload, not compatible with other weapon systems). Not everything made for the military is expensive. You would be surprised how little GPS controlled glide bombs cost - I think it's a only few thousand $. That's a lot of bang for the buck.

 

I dont know what the max payload for a drone is...but thats much cheaper than a Javelin...I think I saw prices on those of $100k for the launcher and $78k for the missile. Assuming Stingers are comparable. 

[Pelagic]

23 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Switch blades drones are not that expensive - about $6K/ unit. High end consumer drones are 3K and are worse for this purpose (slower, don't have payload, not compatible with other weapon systems). Not everything made for the military is expensive. You would be surprised how little GPS controlled glide bombs cost - I think it's a only few thousand $. That's a lot of bang for the buck.

 

To clarify, the smaller Switchblade 300 is around that $6k price. The larger 600 version is in the $50 to $70k range.

 

It does seem the US and Western nations have vastly underestimated the effectiveness of small drones. Perhaps because their own precision guided munitions are relatively cheap and very effective they presumed that any near-peer adversary would have similar capabilities. And Western nations have also likely invested a lot in anti-drone training and countermeasure systems that limit the effectiveness of small drones against their forces. And again probably thought near-peer adversaries like China and Russia had similar training and capabilities.

 

The Switchblades for instance were primarily designed for use by special operations forces giving them additional range for strikes on high value targets. They were never produced in the kind of numbers that would make them a primary offensive weapon simply because the US had almost limitless supplies of better options.

 

Now we're seeing commercial drones dropping modified mortar rounds on targets of opportunity and the defense sector is salivating at the opportunity to sell their own "better" versions to the military. I'd imagine we're going to have a number of systems similar to the Switchblade available soon.

[Spekulatius]

Russian drone breakdown. Has a Canon SLR for optics. No Russian without a bottle. LOL:

@Pelagic I agree one drone effectiveness. I think the Azerbaidzan - Armenian war showed already how effective relatively cheap drones are.

 

Stingers and Javelins are much more complex than these loitering drones and they have a rocket propulsion, so much faster. they can take a 50-$100M jet fighter, so a 50-100K price tag may actually be a good value.

 

The Ukrainian Stugna anti tank missile which is seen in a lot of Ukrainian clips is wire controlled (80's technology basically) and allegedly costs $20K as another point of reference.

[elliott]

some comment suggest that Putin may not "survive" this war

 

any realistic contenders at this point? I wonder if whatever group seizes power post putin is more agreeable to the West or more aggressive

 

 

 

[Blugolds11]

1 hour ago, elliott said:

some comment suggest that Putin may not "survive" this war

 

any realistic contenders at this point? I wonder if whatever group seizes power post putin is more agreeable to the West or more aggressive

 

 

 

 

Be interesting to know (truly) how much support Navalny has in Russia...I dont know that he would have enough support from the powers that be to actually be released from prison and put in power..but his interviews etc that I have seen, he seems like a pretty reasonable guy. I think he would be more agreeable as his entire platform was basically democracy and an end to the corruption, honestly from what I saw I would be happy for the Russian people if he got his chance. 

[lnofeisone]

4 hours ago, Blugolds11 said:

 

Be interesting to know (truly) how much support Navalny has in Russia...I dont know that he would have enough support from the powers that be to actually be released from prison and put in power..but his interviews etc that I have seen, he seems like a pretty reasonable guy. I think he would be more agreeable as his entire platform was basically democracy and an end to the corruption, honestly from what I saw I would be happy for the Russian people if he got his chance. 

I could never understand Navalny. I've watched his evolution for the last 15 years or so (my mom is a huge supporter all the way from Brighton Beach), including a video of him alluding that people from Asian (bordering Russia) countries are cockroaches and should be shot (and then he recommends a pistol). It seems that he shared many positions with Putin and only in the last 5-10 years started to diverge, taking anti-Putin positions (e.g., being pro gray marriage). He never denounced his previous positions so feels like DIS where he perpetually pisses off both sides and nobody trusts him. My personal view is that he is a populist and will say anything to stay relevant. His strongest points are that 1) he isn't Putin and 2) he's pissed off Putin so odds are he is doing something right. Neither are enough to convince me that he is a good guy. 

[Spekulatius]

13 hours ago, Blugolds11 said:

 

Be interesting to know (truly) how much support Navalny has in Russia...I dont know that he would have enough support from the powers that be to actually be released from prison and put in power..but his interviews etc that I have seen, he seems like a pretty reasonable guy. I think he would be more agreeable as his entire platform was basically democracy and an end to the corruption, honestly from what I saw I would be happy for the Russian people if he got his chance. 

Navalny is irrelevant, Imo. I don’t think he makes a difference.

 

There seems to be a documentary out that is going to stream on HBO:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navalny_(film)

[Blugolds11]

10 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

I could never understand Navalny. I've watched his evolution for the last 15 years or so (my mom is a huge supporter all the way from Brighton Beach), including a video of him alluding that people from Asian (bordering Russia) countries are cockroaches and should be shot (and then he recommends a pistol). It seems that he shared many positions with Putin and only in the last 5-10 years started to diverge, taking anti-Putin positions (e.g., being pro gray marriage). He never denounced his previous positions so feels like DIS where he perpetually pisses off both sides and nobody trusts him. My personal view is that he is a populist and will say anything to stay relevant. His strongest points are that 1) he isn't Putin and 2) he's pissed off Putin so odds are he is doing something right. Neither are enough to convince me that he is a good guy. 

 

Wow, had no clue, I never looked into him really, I think I saw one video that he made discussing how Putin was corrupt and stealing money from the Russian people to build his mega compound mansion etc. Seemed like he was against the cronyism, seemed like a decent guy in the video but perhaps that wasnt a good representation of the man. Still might not be Putin 2.0 but maybe just a different version of the same. I guess I probably bought into your 2nd point, anyone who pisses off putin enough to have an assassin squad sent to poison him has gotta be a little closer to the right track.

 

This is part of the video:

 

 

 

Edited April 13, 2022 by Blugolds11