Russia-Ukrainian War

[UK]

2 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Investigations and reports were carried out by Denmark and Sweden, because the explosions took place in the Baltic waters of these two specific countries. Russia asked for permission to participate in these activities, which was turned down and denied.

 

What was brought forward and released by the Danish Minister of Foreign Affairs Lars Løkke Rasmussen was that this was indeed sabotage, but he woulden't get into specifics about who was under suspicion, and reports made classified.

 

Reason for this as mentioned by @Luca above.

 

[Pretty un-Danish approach, likely an approach chosen under pressure from allies, I speculate, all with a very "fishy" odor to me personally. Personally to me also, we all have a right to know what this actually was, as a part of the whole picture of what has been going on.]

 

There is no doubt this was sabotage.

 

The Guardian [October 18^th 2022] : Nord Stream 1: first underwater images reveal devastating damage

 

If I had to bet at the gunpoint, I would bet on: https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/06/20/ukraines-spymaster-has-got-under-the-kremlins-skin

 

"Yet his bravado is not universally welcomed. Leaked documents show that the cia had to intervene to stop General Budanov from ordering an attack on Moscow on the anniversary of the invasion in February. Sabotage and the raids inside Russia since have heightened worries among Ukraine’s allies about provoking a nuclear power."

[mcliu]

This is probably not an option, but what happens if Ukraine starts losing the war? Should NATO intervene? Would people in the West support a direct war against Russia?

[Gamecock-YT]

No

[Dinar]

3 hours ago, mcliu said:

This is probably not an option, but what happens if Ukraine starts losing the war? Should NATO intervene? Would people in the West support a direct war against Russia?

Hell no!  

[ValueArb]

10 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Investigations and reports were carried out by Denmark and Sweden, because the explosions took place in the Baltic waters of these two specific countries. Russia asked for permission to participate in these activities, which was turned down and denied.

 

What was brought forward and released by the Danish Minister of Foreign Affairs Lars Løkke Rasmussen was that this was indeed sabotage, but he woulden't get into specifics about who was under suspicion, and reports made classified.

 

Reason for this as mentioned by @Luca above.

 

[Pretty un-Danish approach, likely an approach chosen under pressure from allies, I speculate, all with a very "fishy" odor to me personally. Personally to me also, we all have a right to know what this actually was, as a part of the whole picture of what has been going on.]

 

There is no doubt this was sabotage.

 

The Guardian [October 18^th 2022] : Nord Stream 1: first underwater images reveal devastating damage

I think there is a great detail of doubt. Accidental explosions produce similar damage as intentional explosions. No one has any credible motivation to sabotage the pipelines, Gazprom has a long history of similar accidental pipeline explosions due to its incompetence, there is little incentive for investigators to say it wasn’t sabotage, and I haven’t seen any evidence they investigated the possibility of an accident or even had the proper industry tech experts involved.

[cubsfan]

6 hours ago, mcliu said:

This is probably not an option, but what happens if Ukraine starts losing the war? Should NATO intervene? Would people in the West support a direct war against Russia?

Tough one, but important question.

 

I’d say beyond significant material support- should Russia prevail. No, but the west would need to figure out a permanent penalty to make it very painful.

 

Europeans entitled to a different viewpoint, since this never should have happened and threatens them the most. I certainly wouldn’t feel good living in Poland or the Baltic States.

[Dinar]

3 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Tough one, but important question.

 

I’d say beyond significant material support- should Russia prevail. No, but the west would need to figure out a permanent penalty to make it very painful.

 

Europeans entitled to a different viewpoint, since this never should have happened and threatens them the most. I certainly wouldn’t feel good living in Poland or the Baltic States.

Why?  Baltics are part of Nato and so is Poland, that's a big difference!

[no_free_lunch]

11 hours ago, mcliu said:

This is probably not an option, but what happens if Ukraine starts losing the war? Should NATO intervene? Would people in the West support a direct war against Russia?

It's not so black and white.  There are options for escalation between current support and some type of direct NATO-RU conflict.  That is what we are witnessing in fact.  Increased supply and more sophisticated weapons can be delivered to Ukraine.  Some type of private military, a parallel to Wagner could be employed, it already is to a very limited extent by virtue of volunteers.  Drones play a significant role and can be upscaled by western donors.

[Dinar]

18 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

It's not so black and white.  There are options for escalation between current support and some type of direct NATO-RU conflict.  That is what we are witnessing in fact.  Increased supply and more sophisticated weapons can be delivered to Ukraine.  Some type of private military, a parallel to Wagner could be employed, it already is to a very limited extent by virtue of volunteers.  Drones play a significant role and can be upscaled by western donors.

Who is going to pay for all of this?  Ukraine needs $50bn per year to fight and probably a trillion for reconstruction.  There is not a chance in hell the US will come up with $25bn per year for the next five years.  

[Xerxes]

https://youtu.be/dDoiqH66DLM?feature=shared

 

 

Edited September 20, 2023 by Xerxes

[no_free_lunch]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

Who is going to pay for all of this?  Ukraine needs $50bn per year to fight and probably a trillion for reconstruction.  There is not a chance in hell the US will come up with $25bn per year for the next five years.  

Probably some combination of Ukraine, US, EU.  It's really peanuts compared to alternatives such as handing over the region to RF.   Keep in mind the US is spending somewhere around $800B per year on their military and I don't think that includes everything either.   Spending on the Iraq wars, I have seen that pegged at over $1T (off top of my head).  These are in fact sustainable numbers but of course it would be better to just have some kind of peace agreement.

[John Hjorth]

8 hours ago, ValueArb said:

I think there is a great detail of doubt. Accidental explosions produce similar damage as intentional explosions. No one has any credible motivation to sabotage the pipelines, Gazprom has a long history of similar accidental pipeline explosions due to its incompetence, there is little incentive for investigators to say it wasn’t sabotage, and I haven’t seen any evidence they investigated the possibility of an accident or even had the proper industry tech experts involved.

 

The above is not correct.

 

Wikipedia : 2022 Nord Stream Pipeline Sabotage.

[UK]

11 hours ago, ValueArb said:

I think there is a great detail of doubt. Accidental explosions produce similar damage as intentional explosions. No one has any credible motivation to sabotage the pipelines, Gazprom has a long history of similar accidental pipeline explosions due to its incompetence, there is little incentive for investigators to say it wasn’t sabotage, and I haven’t seen any evidence they investigated the possibility of an accident or even had the proper industry tech experts involved.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/nord-stream-sabotage-probe-turns-to-clues-inside-poland-4ed20422

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-ukraine.html

[UK]

6 hours ago, Dinar said:

Who is going to pay for all of this?  Ukraine needs $50bn per year to fight and probably a trillion for reconstruction.  There is not a chance in hell the US will come up with $25bn per year for the next five years.  

 

Since I am entitled to a different opinion...:)

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2019/09/12/the-annual-cost-of-the-war-in-afghanistan-since-2001-infographic/

 

If US spent almost 1T or 50 B per year in this case for God knows what reasons, I would argue it would be almost no brainer to spend half of this sum yearly for some time in Ukraine for a many good reasons. Not least that the large part of the current support is via older military equipment, due for replacement, but more importantly, because fighting in this case is done by the willing force of Ukrainians, supported by almost 90 per cent of its population. Europe in general and Germany in particular should bear more of the financial burden though. 

Edited September 20, 2023 by UK

[John Hjorth]

I'm reading Roger Lowenstein : "When genius failed" about the rise and fall of Long-Term Capital Management as leisure reading by now. I have to say it's awesome! 

 

From the very start of Chapter 1 with the title : 'Meriwether' :

 

Quote

If there is one article of faith that John Meriwether discovered at Salomon Brothers, it was to ride your losses until they turned into gains. ...

 

 - It fits this situation perfectly, too! Once you have spent as much as just a few dollars as a state or institution on supporting Ukraine in this situation, you are beyond the point of no return, you are bound and forced to continue to average in on the situation.

 

It's not like Asterix in Britain at tea time :

 

 

Youtube : Asterix in Britain: it's tea time!.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Quite evident to me that it feels worrying, disturbing and upsetting for members of CoBF to think about this!

Edited September 20, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Luke]

43 minutes ago, UK said:

Not least that the large part of the current support is via older military equipment, due for replacement, but more importantly, because fighting in this case is done by the willing force of Ukrainians, supported by almost 90 per cent of its population. Europe in general and Germany in particular should bear more of the financial burden though. 

"Fighting is done by the willing force of Ukrainians, supported by 90% of its population". 

 

Where do you have the data from to make these conclusions? As far as I am aware, they are FORCING men to kill or damage themselves for this war. (https://www.zeit.de/zeit-magazin/leben/2022-03/ukraine-russland-krieg-maenner-widerstand-flucht). They are picking up men straight from the streets, forcing them to fight, the exact thing Russia is doing to their citizens. Are the 90% of the population who are for the war safe in germany and don't have to fight? (women). How are they now doing research about the state of this country when there is maximum chaos?

 

 

Why should Germans bear more of the financial burden than say other European countries? Top 10% of taxpayers already payed 5000€ per person last year if you calculate current costs for this war. Russia has nuclear weapons, ukraine wont win and we also wont win a nuclear war. We should stop sending all these weapons to an aggressive Ukrainian nationalist leader and let russia and ukraine figure it out. 

 

 

Everything is so damn well orchestrated that as a passive spectator you can not not cheer for ukraine, of course you only see the heroic moves from ukraine and the evil moves from putin and its soldiers. 

Edited September 20, 2023 by Luca

[UK]

24 minutes ago, Luca said:

"Fighting is done by the willing force of Ukrainians, supported by 90% of its population". 

 

Where do you have the data from to make these conclusions? As far as I am aware, they are FORCING men to kill or damage themselves for this war. (https://www.zeit.de/zeit-magazin/leben/2022-03/ukraine-russland-krieg-maenner-widerstand-flucht). They are picking up men straight from the streets, forcing them to fight, the exact thing Russia is doing to their citizens. Are the 90% of the population who are for the war safe in germany and don't have to fight? (women). How are they now doing research about the state of this country when there is maximum chaos?

 

 

Why should Germans bear more of the financial burden than say other European countries? Top 10% of taxpayers already payed 5000€ per person last year if you calculate current costs for this war. Russia has nuclear weapons, ukraine wont win and we also wont win a nuclear war. We should stop sending all these weapons to an aggressive Ukrainian nationalist leader and let russia and ukraine figure it out. 

 

 

Everything is so damn well orchestrated that as a passive spectator you can not not cheer for ukraine, of course you only see the heroic moves from ukraine and the evil moves from putin and its soldiers. 

 

Luca, I really suggest you to read or believe less of the propaganda by Russia or China!

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nearly-90-ukrainians-oppose-territorial-concessions-russia-poll-2022-09-15/

 

I knew it was not good idea to point a finger:), but maybe because Germany still does not spend even 2 per cent from GDP as per NATO requirement, while Poland is already on its way up to 4 per cent? Not to mention, that the whole damned situation was also perhaps encouraged quite substantially by the policies of Germany (and former US administration) in the last 10 years. But I beg you not to ask elaborate me further, this was bad idea already:). In general I love and wish success for Germany as much as US!. Also looking forward to see permanently stationed German brigade in my country as soon as possible:)

 

Edited September 20, 2023 by UK

[Luke]

9 minutes ago, UK said:

 

Luca, I really suggest you to read or believe less of the propaganda by Russia or China!

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nearly-90-ukrainians-oppose-territorial-concessions-russia-poll-2022-09-15/

Where did i read or believed russian propaganda? I sent you an article by one of the biggest respected newspaper agencies that talks about the absolute horrific moves by the ukrainian government picking up young men to force them killing themselves in this war. They dont even want to but are forced!  (same as in russa btw). I dont believe everything the russians say but i also dont blindly copy the "western party line". 

 

 

"canvassed the views of 2,000 people on Sept. 7-13", conducted by the country that is fighting this war and has strong interests in all the weapons they can get...you tell me how reliable that is to ask 2000 people....

 

Its is simple: Ukraine has different interests than we do and thats a very important point of the debate. Selensky doesnt want deescalation. 

9 minutes ago, UK said:

I knew t it was not good idea to point finger:), but maybe because Germany still does not spend even 2 per cent from GDP as per NATO requirement, while Poland is already on its way up to 4 per cent?

What does that have to do with anything? This is not our war to begin with so there should no finger pointing to begin with.

9 minutes ago, UK said:

Not to mention, that the whole damned situation was also perhaps encouraged quite substantially by the policies of Germany (and former US administration) of the last 10 years.

Yes, there should have never been any discussion at all about ukraine with european union/nato etc but that doesnt make it smart to give ukraine all these weapons now and escalate the situation further together.

9 minutes ago, UK said:

But I beg you not to ask elaborate me further, this was bad idea already:). In general I love and wish success for Germany as much as US!. And also looking forward to see permanently stationed German brigade in my country as soon as possible:)

 

Yes, same!

Edited September 20, 2023 by Luca

[UK]

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ukrainian-tactics-put-russia-on-the-defensive-in-the-black-sea-4d3f492d?mod=hp_lead_pos7

 

Commercial vessels have entered Ukraine’s main port of Odesa without asking permission from Russia for the first time since the war began—showing just how much the balance of power has changed in the Black Sea. By imposing an asymmetrical war that relies on domestically produced naval drones and missiles, and that targets Russians ships in their own home bases, Ukraine has eroded much of Russia’s vaunted naval superiority. Now, it is taking the battle to Russia itself.

[Dinar]

@UK, @no_free_lunch, there has not been a poll done in at least a year of US citizens asking whether or not they would be willing to pay $100 per person per year to support the war in Ukraine.  You may think $25bn per annum is a small price to pay, but US citizens think otherwise.   Also, nobody is talking about handing the region over to Russia.  However, it is NOT the job of US taxpayers to support Ukraine.  It is the job of Ukrainians.  

Yes, we are obligated to defend Poland and the Baltics due to treaty obligations.

 

Meanwhile, let's not forget, Ukraine has never existed as a country.  Western Ukraine was part of Austro-Hungarian empire for centuries, and eastern Ukraine was called Little Russia for centuries, and part of Russian empire, and was Russian speaking.  Hell, Kiev was called the mother of Russian cities.  

 

[Luke]

 

Sadly, we have really the most incompetent people in our government, can't be more dissatisfied with our foreign minister that tries everything to make German relations with other countries more difficult and continues to escalate tensions to higher and higher levels.

 

Edited September 20, 2023 by Luca

[no_free_lunch]

1 hour ago, Dinar said:

@UK, @no_free_lunch, there has not been a poll done in at least a year of US citizens asking whether or not they would be willing to pay $100 per person per year to support the war in Ukraine.  You may think $25bn per annum is a small price to pay, but US citizens think otherwise.   Also, nobody is talking about handing the region over to Russia.  However, it is NOT the job of US taxpayers to support Ukraine.  It is the job of Ukrainians.  

Yes, we are obligated to defend Poland and the Baltics due to treaty obligations.

 

Meanwhile, let's not forget, Ukraine has never existed as a country.  Western Ukraine was part of Austro-Hungarian empire for centuries, and eastern Ukraine was called Little Russia for centuries, and part of Russian empire, and was Russian speaking.  Hell, Kiev was called the mother of Russian cities.  

 

Oh well, actually it has existed for centuries and in fact, it's now a sovereign country.  If Russia wants it in it's sphere better ways to do it than at gun point but I know that's how Russia rolls. 

 

Here they even made a wikipedia page to help clear things up for you.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine

[John Hjorth]

8 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

Oh well, actually it has existed for centuries and in fact, it's now a sovereign country.  If Russia wants it in it's sphere better ways to do it than at gun point but I know that's how Russia rolls. 

 

Here they even made a wikipedia page to help clear things up for you.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine

 

I coulden't have phrased it better than @no_free_lunch above.

 

Also : 

 

Wikipedia : Ukraine - Declaration of Independence.

 

Please also here note which countries were among the first three contries to recognize this on December 2^nd 1991 : Poland, Canada and ? ... Russia!.

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, Luca said:

... Sadly, we have really the most incompetent people in our government, can't be more dissatisfied with our foreign minister that tries everything to make German relations with other countries more difficult and continues to escalate tensions to higher and higher levels.

 

Be careful with what you are posting, @Luca! If you were mentioning the name you would likely be at risk for being called severely biased, based on your personal misogyny. 

 

It's great to a place to steam out here, right!? 

[Dinar]

1 hour ago, no_free_lunch said:

Oh well, actually it has existed for centuries and in fact, it's now a sovereign country.  If Russia wants it in it's sphere better ways to do it than at gun point but I know that's how Russia rolls. 

 

Here they even made a wikipedia page to help clear things up for you.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine

When has Ukraine existed for centuries?  Your own link shows that it was not an independent country before 1991.  In any case, you can argue whatever you want, but the point is there is no support on the American street for helping Ukraine.