Russia-Ukrainian War

[John Hjorth]

Bloomberg [31^th August 2023] : Putin Moves to Seize Control of Wagner’s Mercenary Empire.

[Castanza]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Definitely want to second that Dan Calin's hardcore history is gold for history buffs.

 

I didnt want to argue, but i think there are theories around that it was more than just the death of  Khan that caused the Mongol juggernaut to stop.

 

i do think it is correct to state that the Mongols were much more than a barbarian horde. For once they facilitated trade - because they controlled such a large landmass all the way to China, it made it actually easier to travel than dealing with a dozen kingdoms and warlords.

 

They were also masters of siege warfare and likely the first one to effectively use cannons, even though gunpowder was invented by the Chinese. Then they were masters of logistics as their communication system resembled the Pony Express.

The Mongols were very innovative and quick to adopt new ideas and technology (more so under Kublia Khan) . But damn did they rule with an iron fist or crush your soul if you didn’t pay tribute or swear allegiance. 
 

Relating back to Ukraine with the Mongols in mind, I think it’s funny to see who owned the land when the Horde was laying siege to the cities throughout the region. I’ll let people do a little digging to find that answer
 

I guess this is why I get annoyed with the justification in this thread that goes “Ukraine is a sovereign nation and deserves its land and borders to be respected.” Etc. 

 

In my opinion, nobody owns land, you hold it with force. Ukraine has a right to defend what they believe is their land. But as history shows, that land can change hands and likely will over the next millennium. 
 

If there is one thing you can learn from Dan Carlins series; it’s that History boils down to conquer or be conquered. History bears no remorse and grants nothing. It’s take and hold until the marauders are at your gate.  Plan accordingly and maybe you’ll get 50 years of peace at best! 

[no_free_lunch]

9 hours ago, Castanza said:

The Mongols stopped their exploits in Europe because their leader died and there was division amounts the leadership on a successor. 
 

Prior to this death; they were cutting through Poland like a hot knife through butter. They would decimate armies of 75k with less than 20k of men who were supposed to be just a scouting party. The Mongols had a massive moat when it came to warfare tactics. Their brutality was unmatched as well.  Prior to the Mongols, siege warfare could be drawn out for a few years. They could raid cities and decimate armies in weeks and months. Many many times single battles decided the outcome. European Knights were no match for the Mongols technique. The Comanche Native Americans dominated with similar techniques. 
 

I believe it was in Ukraine where the Mongols captured 10,000 soldiers and they tied them up and stacked them like cord wood. They then proceeded to build a wooden platform on top of them where the Mongols then climbed on top of and ate their victory meal. The weight slowly crushed the enemy. 
 

Ogedei’s death caused the “scouting party” to turn back to elect a new leader. 
 

EU would look VERY different today without this single death. Not too often in history do big changes boil down to single events like this. 

 

The Mongol empire in that region continued for 200-300 years as I understand it.  That's a long time, even by middle ages standards.  I don't buy the internal division as an excuse.  I will give them a full century  to get their stuff together but that's it.  After a century mongols have to acknowledge their limits.  They ruled but they could no longer conquer.

 

I would say the argument I see here is that, at best, the mongols had a Buffet/Jobs level leader in Genghis Khan with an array of revolutionary tactics that could not be beat. The evidence we see is that the genius was confined to the OG Khan.  Further, the fact that subsequent generations stalled against Europe provides ample evidence that certainly without Khan's greatness they simply could not proceed.

Edited August 31, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[Castanza]

3 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:

 

The Mongol empire in that region continued for 200-300 years as I understand it.  That's a long time, even by middle ages standards.  I don't buy the internal division as an excuse.  I will give them a full century  to get their stuff together but that's it.  After a century mongols have to acknowledge their limits.  They ruled but they could no longer conquer.

 

I would say the argument I see here is that, at best, the mongols had a Buffet/Jobs level leader in Genghis Khan with an array of revolutionary tactics that could not be beat. The evidence we see is that the genius was confined to the OG Khan.  However, the fact that subsequent generations stalled against Europe provides ample evidence that certainly without Khan's greatness they simply could not proceed.

Well there are various theories out there. But I will say the Mongols were not stopped because of European might. The evidence we have shows the Mongols were superior fighters and they defeated the Templars, the Teutonics and the Hospitallers; all of who were considered very formidable forces in their times. Going off the records it would seem the defeated them handily as well. 
 

I think leadership was the main cause of the retreat but it was also environmental as well. 
 

It’s really such a weird time in history. So many cultures and levels of sophistication bumping into each other. 

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

To me, it's incredible how this situation in this topic, can be nitpicked and analyzed into *I don't what's going to happen*.

Looks like the Russian frontline is cracking some more with Verbove likely already in Ukrainian control. Verbove controls one of the two main two roads into Tokmak ( which is a fortress). I do think the Ukrainian may just go around Tokmak. If Tokmak falls the hinterland is wide open.

 

Looks like the Russians are in deep trouble if the Ukraine can exploit this still small breakthrough.

 

Then there is the whole drone swarm issue all over Russia. You can see movies of slow drone flying over Moscow. What a disaster for the Russians

 

On another note, it is interesting to see the nonsense that is  shown on Indian media:

 

Edited September 1, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Spekulatius]

At major turning points in history, there is rarely a single root cause for things to turn, In most cases, it’s a confluence  of things. Why did the Germans lose WW2? Was it the harsh Russian winter in 1941/42? Lack of manpower and bad logistics due to being stretched too thin? Better Russian tactics and ferocious resistance in Moscow? US aid?

 

Why did the French Revolution happen? American Revolution showing the way L Rising bread prices and inflation? Excesses of the French King and Nobility?

 

Likely all of the above.

[UK]

4 hours ago, Castanza said:

If there is one thing you can learn from Dan Carlins series; it’s that History boils down to conquer or be conquered. History bears no remorse and grants nothing. It’s take and hold until the marauders are at your gate.  Plan accordingly and maybe you’ll get 50 years of peace at best! 

 

In 10 minutes:

 

[John Hjorth]

Awesome YT video, @UK, thank you for sharing.

 

Simply mind boggling to think of that in  most of the cases of a border change in the video, an armed conflict has occurred.

[Ulti]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/how-russia-globalized-war-in-ukraine

[Spekulatius]

 

German Taurus missile. These marketing departments for weapon manufacturers are getting better. There is a version to take down bridges too. RIP Kerch bridge once those bad boys arrive:

 

[Luca]

Btw i think this fits in this thread too: 

 

Are we really committed to Taiwan out of a belief in self-determination, then? One might answer that it does not matter: Taiwanese self-determination is a right worth defending even if the United States has ulterior motives. But if the interest of the United States is in a U.S.-aligned Taiwan rather than a free Taiwan—indeed, we supported Taiwan even when it was an authoritarian state—this may lead the U.S. to forgo actions that would be in the interest of Taiwanese self-determination but bring Taiwan and China closer together. For instance: Lyle Goldstein says that, as was the case with Ukraine, there are opportunities for diplomacy, but they involve fostering warmer relations between China and Taiwan:

 

So many opportunities were missed to avert the war in Ukraine. To state the obvious, if they had simply declared that Ukraine would be a neutral state, how hard would that have been? … That was a completely feasible option, but it just didn’t fit with our ideology. The idea that we might climb down, that we might compromise—that’s showing weakness, so we can never do that. Taiwan has all kinds of diplomatic positions. We should be encouraging those. … There are all kinds of compromises to be made, people-to-people exchanges, military confidence-building measures. All of that should’ve happened with Ukraine and Russia, but no, we insisted on a confrontational approach, and now we have a ghastly war.

 

Instead of trying to facilitate amicable cross-strait relations, we have instead opted for the course of encouraging Taiwan to become a missile-covered “porcupine” that can resist a Chinese invasion. U.S. officials have been deliberately taking steps that they know will anger China—such as Biden promising he would go to war with China over the island, and Nancy Pelosi’s self-aggrandizing visit. In doing so, we may flatter ourselves that we are supporting Taiwanese self-determination, but what we are actually doing is increasing the likelihood that the country will be destroyed. (The situation was similar in Ukraine: the (empty) promise to admit Ukraine to NATO was justified in the name of Ukraine’s security. But it did nothing to dissuade Vladimir Putin from his belief that without his deployment of force, Ukraine would end up as part of a hostile Western military alliance.) For 50 years, the U.S. has accepted the “One China” policy, with neither side making moves to undermine it. It could continue, in the absence of reckless and provocative moves by the U.S.

 

https://www.currentaffairs.org/2022/08/if-we-want-humanity-to-survive-we-must-cooperate-with-china

[ValueArb]

8 hours ago, Luca said:

Btw i think this fits in this thread too: 

 

Are we really committed to Taiwan out of a belief in self-determination, then? One might answer that it does not matter: Taiwanese self-determination is a right worth defending even if the United States has ulterior motives. But if the interest of the United States is in a U.S.-aligned Taiwan rather than a free Taiwan—indeed, we supported Taiwan even when it was an authoritarian state—this may lead the U.S. to forgo actions that would be in the interest of Taiwanese self-determination but bring Taiwan and China closer together. For instance: Lyle Goldstein says that, as was the case with Ukraine, there are opportunities for diplomacy, but they involve fostering warmer relations between China and Taiwan:

 

So many opportunities were missed to avert the war in Ukraine. To state the obvious, if they had simply declared that Ukraine would be a neutral state, how hard would that have been? … That was a completely feasible option, but it just didn’t fit with our ideology. The idea that we might climb down, that we might compromise—that’s showing weakness, so we can never do that. Taiwan has all kinds of diplomatic positions. We should be encouraging those. … There are all kinds of compromises to be made, people-to-people exchanges, military confidence-building measures. All of that should’ve happened with Ukraine and Russia, but no, we insisted on a confrontational approach, and now we have a ghastly war.

 

Instead of trying to facilitate amicable cross-strait relations, we have instead opted for the course of encouraging Taiwan to become a missile-covered “porcupine” that can resist a Chinese invasion. U.S. officials have been deliberately taking steps that they know will anger China—such as Biden promising he would go to war with China over the island, and Nancy Pelosi’s self-aggrandizing visit. In doing so, we may flatter ourselves that we are supporting Taiwanese self-determination, but what we are actually doing is increasing the likelihood that the country will be destroyed. (The situation was similar in Ukraine: the (empty) promise to admit Ukraine to NATO was justified in the name of Ukraine’s security. But it did nothing to dissuade Vladimir Putin from his belief that without his deployment of force, Ukraine would end up as part of a hostile Western military alliance.) For 50 years, the U.S. has accepted the “One China” policy, with neither side making moves to undermine it. It could continue, in the absence of reckless and provocative moves by the U.S.

 

https://www.currentaffairs.org/2022/08/if-we-want-humanity-to-survive-we-must-cooperate-with-china

 

Jesus, Noam Chomsky is so deluded. Ukraine WAS declared a neutral state, by the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances. But Putin didn't want that. He wanted it as a puppet state and when the Maidan revolution threw out his hand picked flunky president so the Ukrainian people could be free, he invaded the Don Bas and Crimea. 

 

The idea that there is or was some peace agreement that could be had with Putin to protect Ukrainian freedoms that he won't abrogate as soon as its in his interest to ignores his history of violating every single agreement as soon as its in his interest to. 

[John Hjorth]

l

On 9/2/2023 at 6:40 PM, Spekulatius said:

... These marketing departments for weapon manufacturers are getting better. ...

 

Marketing of the global military complex, here a western part of it. So ugly and counterproductive for the planet, civility, humanity & mankind.

[ValueArb]

52 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

l

 

Marketing of the global military complex, here a western part of it. So ugly and counterproductive for the planet, civility, humanity & mankind.

 

Well, we do need some weapons. We just need to figure out a way that everyone involved in the decision chain (military staff, leadership, congress, the president) can't gain any benefit from the decisions made. If anyone ever can figure that out, they should get all the Nobel Prizes.

[UK]

 

[ValueArb]

5 hours ago, UK said:

 

Timing and building the tension, delivery, punch line, this guy nailed it!

[UK]

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/in-crimea-pro-ukraine-feelings-prompt-a-russian-crackdown-123494b0?mod=hp_lead_pos9

 

Punishments for showing these feelings are often severe, with prison terms and forced confessions that are broadcast on a Telegram channel called the Crimean Smersh—a reference to the Stalin-era abbreviation for counterintelligence death squads. August’s catches included a man apologizing for posting “Glory to Ukraine” on social media, another for blasting a Ukrainian song about burning a Russian tank, and three young hostesses at the Alushta aquapark who had danced to another Ukrainian pop tune. The three women were made to sing on camera about the greatness of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia’s FSB intelligence service, meanwhile, paraded a man who had allegedly blown up a gas pipeline in Crimea, one of several such recent detentions on sabotage charges. Most of those detained for such acts of resistance aren’t members of the traditionally pro-Ukrainian Crimean Tatar community, an estimated 12% of the peninsula’s population. Many are ethnic Russians who are repulsed by Russia’s militaristic autocracy and prefer a return to democracy under Ukrainian rule. 

...

As a result, many Crimeans who originally backed annexation by Russia are now changing their mind, said Abbas Gallyamov, a former speechwriter for Putin who has left Russia and opposes the government. “There used to be that sentiment in Crimea of return to a home harbor, but you have to understand that this return was so popular because the Ukrainian authority seemed weak and the Russian authority seemed strong,” Gallyamov said. “But now that Russia is losing, and doesn’t show any strength, the legitimacy of the Putin regime has been eroded. And when Ukraine is strong, many Crimeans are thinking ‘Maybe we have made a mistake?’ ”

 

Edited September 7, 2023 by UK

[John Hjorth]

On 9/5/2023 at 12:55 PM, UK said:

 

 

This to me is just so bad form and bad manners. Undignified, and then in front of a camera. Really appalling. What a cartoon drawing of a high raking politician. Total lack of format. If you can't find something positive to say about a deceased human being, let it go, and stay quiet.

Edited September 7, 2023 by John Hjorth

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 

This to me is just so bad form and bad manners. Undignified, and then in front of a camera. Really appalling. What a cartoon drawing of a high raking politician. Total lack of format. If you can't find something positive to say about a deceased human being, let it go, and stay quiet.

I disagree. You can expose assholes with humor and Prighozin and Putin deserve all the jokes they get and then some.

[no_free_lunch]

I thought the delivery was excellent.

[Blugolds11]

5 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

This to me is just so bad form and bad manners. Undignified, and then in front of a camera. Really appalling. What a cartoon drawing of a high raking politician. Total lack of format. If you can't find something positive to say about a deceased human being, let it go, and stay quiet.

 

 Considering Prigozhin's track record, I'd say everything is fair play. Prigozhin never held back and certainly wasnt worried about offending people. This wasnt a nice a guy who was in an unfortunate accident, he was a ruthless crony who played a dangerous game and lost. Wasnt the first and wont be the last, no shame in saying what everyone else is thinking.

[Xerxes]

18 hours ago, Blugolds11 said:

 

 Considering Prigozhin's track record, I'd say everything is fair play. Prigozhin never held back and certainly wasnt worried about offending people. This wasnt a nice a guy who was in an unfortunate accident, he was a ruthless crony who played a dangerous game and lost. Wasnt the first and wont be the last, no shame in saying what everyone else is thinking.

I for one had a good laugh. And yes, you live by the sword, you die by the sword. Fair game. 
 

That said, a sitting prime minister should not be making these types of jokes. 

[Spekulatius]

Looks like Storm shadows have damaged a newer Submarine and a larger Landing ship in Sebastopol harbor. Crimea is strategically worthless for Russia now;

https://x.com/UKikaski/status/1701894717615546754?s=20

Edited September 13, 2023 by Spekulatius

[no_free_lunch]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Looks like Storm shadows have damaged a newer Submarine and a larger Landing ship in Sebastopol harbor. Crimea is strategically worthless for Russia now;

https://x.com/UKikaski/status/1701894717615546754?s=20

This is good.  It provides additional leverage for negotiations.   

 

Reading the coverage, I feel that when Russia gets attacked it's always spun as though they have been cheated.  "The UK is supplying weapons..."   Yes, they are.   All predictable responses for attacking a country with which defense alliances exist.  Russia can stop this immediately by simply removing themselves from Ukrainian territory.  I have no sympathy for their position.

[Spekulatius]

Looks like both ships are completely destroyed.

https://x.com/UKikaski/status/1701890251306762666?s=20

 

Yes, for the Russians it must feel like the Ukraine uses a cheat code when using western weapons.