Russia-Ukrainian War

[mcliu]

It’s unfortunate NATO keeps sending weapons to Ukraine knowing it’ll become a meat grinder as Russia reverts back to more traditional military doctrine, especially when a guarantee of Ukraine neutrality might have prevented war.

 

The unintended consequence of sanctions might be high inflation driving Europe into a recession causing existing govts to fall in upcoming elections. Ironically, Putin might outlast the elected officials currently in charge of certain European/NATO countries. 

[changegonnacome]

2 hours ago, mcliu said:

NATO keeps sending weapons to Ukraine knowing it’ll become a meat grinder

 
We in the West will keep sending weapons and encouragement and instagram/twitter likes to Ukraine till every male between 16 & 60 is dead………Russia at a certain point will dispense with the boots on the ground & mechanized attack once the body bags heading back to Moscow become a PR problem domestically….and Putin will simply resort to carpet bombing & leveling the Ukrainian cities to the ground. This requires, what is happening right now, which is civilians to flee those cities to Western Ukraine or the EU leaving only soldiers/resistance fighters behind…..then he will level those cities. NATO/the west will watch on in horror but do nothing. 

 

Ukranian’s will return to whatever is left of their country and it will take decades to ‘get back’ to anywhere close to their level of prosperity they had prior to Feb 2022…..from Putin’s point of view it will be mission accomplished & Russian sovereignty & security will be restored & the NATO buffer restored & NATO expansion West finished for a generation. 
 

The USA will returns to where it’s security focus should be which is in Asia -  not a side hustle freedom & democracy project in Eastern Europe that has turned into a boondoggle. Think, for a second, of the mental overhead in DC that has been consumed by Ukraine in the last 5 years…& for what strategic goal?…….it got the last president impeached , a former vice presidents Presidential campaign nearly got derailed cause his son was on the board of a gas company there & lost his laptop and now it’s going to completely bury the democrats in the Mid-terms & as @mcliu says it could change materially the EU political map in unexpected ways as inflations and millions of refugees flood into neighboring states.

 

Its very sad but this is the way it plays out IMO barring any policy errors or missteps.

Edited March 5, 2022 by changegonnacome

[Spekulatius]

We will see. My thinking is that as long as the Ukrainian are willing to fight, we should help them. It’s not that anyone really will put his life on the line, because he gets encouragement from someone else on TV. Yes, maybe Putin can declare territorial victory of some sorts, but I think Russia swallowed a brick and sanctions will have the economy set back for a decade and they become another Iran.

 

As for Refugees, I am going to flip this around and state that this is a great opportunity for any demographically challenge European countries try to replenish ranks and get a lot of hard working people that are way easier to integrate than the million of Syrians.

Edited March 5, 2022 by Spekulatius

[Peregrine]

The most balanced take I've seen on this yet. From MSNBC no less.

 

This quote was on point: "It may sound cruel to suggest that Ukraine could be barred, either temporarily or permanently, from entering a military alliance it wants to be in. But what’s more cruel is that Ukrainians might be paying with their lives for the United States’ reckless flirtation with Ukraine as a future NATO member without ever committing to its defense."

 

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/russia-s-ukraine-invasion-may-have-been-preventable-n1290831

[cubsfan]

^^ Yeah, the West, NATO, and US had years to address this threat somehow.  

Too late to put the genie back in the bottle. An awful lot of fools for politicians.

[Pelagic]

Interesting discussion on the last week of fighting in Ukraine. Long and pretty in depth: 

 

 

 

[changegonnacome]

Good piece from MSNBC….I’m shocked they could actually write something that might contradict the prevailing narrative/views of their audience. In zero sum journalism,as it exists today, telling your audience things they might not like to hear risks them all too easily changing channel/website.

 

Geography is destiny……& regardless of the buffer zone theory of European security architecture being somewhat contrived by policy wonks & academics ….……simple common sense says in life that wherever possible we should try to have good relations with our neighbors…..pivoting as Ukraine did so strongly to the US/EU while taking such a hardline with the Russian’s was naive in the extreme, especially given the ethno-demography in West Ukraine………I think a mature & pragmatic political leadership in Ukraine, could have in a sense played both the Russians & the EU/USA (for aid, for economic development etc etc.) which could have been to the benefit of the Ukrainian people and the economy. Ukraine fell for the pretty girl from the West batting its eye lashes at it (who lets face it high tails it at the first sign of real trouble). We’ll never know or indeed we might find out when whatever is left of Ukraine emerges from the Ashes they might have learned this lesson…….….that geography is destiny & pragmatic realism (not idealism) is in the best interest of Ukraine in the long term when it sits with the EU/NATO to the West and Russia to East. One example you dont need to join the EU (& piss of Russia) to enjoy its economic benefits (ask the UK/Switzerland) - you sign a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). 

Edited March 5, 2022 by changegonnacome

[changegonnacome]

5 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

We will see. My thinking is that as long as the Ukrainian are willing to fight, we should help them.

 

Prolonging a conflict that is destined to end one way is not “help”. Conflicts generally end when both sides reach a mutually hurting stalemates ala Zartman’s theory. What looks like ‘help’ - in international conflicts has been shown time and time again to have unintended consequences that usually have bad outcomes simply delaying the inevitable while increasing the body count. The asymmetric nature of the Russian military vs. the Ukrainian military (+ Western assistance short of actual help) to me doesn’t appear to provide any hope of a mutually hurting stalemate. Unless I’ve underestimated the damage of sanctions to Putin regime/economy (which I concede is possible).

 

We are in stage one of this conflict - in some ways you should see this phase of the conflict (with Russian boots on the ground right now) as a way to kick-off the war but more importantly it is designed to drive out the civilian population (which is happening right now). Russia will then move on to aerial assaults by missle/plane to Aleppo-ize Ukrainian cities (i.e. reduce them to rubble)…….this is the Russian way. It was of course the Western way in WWII when we beat Germany/Japan into submission without sending a single infantry man into Tokyo for example (see BBC below correctly identifying the next phase of the conflict). Whatever Putin’s military objectives are in Ukraine (my guess is to simple wreck it, not occupy it) make no mistakes about it he will achieve his objectives simple military math says so.

 

See below:

 

From Grozny to Aleppo to Ukraine, Russia meets resistance with more firepower https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60631433 

Edited March 5, 2022 by changegonnacome

[elliott]

how will the relationship between Ukraine and NATO change after this? or, rather, how is it already changing now?

 

if the west/nato and ukraine flirted about becoming allies, but now the west/nato doesnt provide the support the Ukraine needs, one would think the relationship would somehow change.

now, the Ukraine knows they are not in NATO yet, but they are being invaded. that must have some effect on how they think their requests for help should be handled regardless of their membership status.

 

Edited March 6, 2022 by elliott
added "regardless of their membership status."

[Gamecock-YT]

2 hours ago, elliott said:

how will the relationship between Ukraine and NATO change after this? or, rather, how is it already changing now?

 

 

 

kind of depends on the result of the invasion, doesn't it? Far too many different outcomes.

[scorpioncapital]

Ukraine wanted to join a more successful regional bloc (europe) instead of a less rich and successful block (russia/central asia). One is democratic, the other authoritarian. It is rough when you are in the middle and the Russian side is claiming you don't exist and have no right to leave.

 

 

[gfp]

The WSJ had an article I thought was good -

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/cause-ukraine-war-robert-service-moscow-putin-lenin-stalin-history-communism-invasion-kgb-fsb-11646413200?mod=mhp

Edited March 6, 2022 by gfp

[changegonnacome]

4 hours ago, elliott said:

how will the relationship between Ukraine and NATO change after this? or, rather, how is it already changing now?

 

NATO membership, even the idea, is completely over for Ukraine……..this is the fundamental purpose of the Russian invasion………the West taught Russia was fucking around when it said Ukrainian membership of NATO was red line issue………well this is what red line issues look like……Russia backed up its talk and invaded the whole goddam country. 

 

The same way the Cuban missle crisis was a red line issue for USA in the 1960’s……it wasn’t talk, they backed up with destroyers & the blockade in the Atlantic & nuclear missles pointed at Moscow

Edited March 6, 2022 by changegonnacome

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, scorpioncapital said:

Ukraine wanted to join a more successful regional bloc (europe) instead of a less rich and successful block (russia/central asia). One is democratic, the other authoritarian. It is rough when you are in the middle and the Russian side is claiming you don't exist and have no right to leave.

 

 

As I mentioned forward thinking, strategic & pragmatic Ukrainian politicians could/should have done both……..when re-locating the physical location of your country isn't an option, geography is destiny…….the only logical path forward is to try and get on with both your neighbors……you can “join” the EU without participating in its political institutions (which over time might have increasing military aspirations) you sign an FTA like Switzerland….you make concessions in Crimea/Dombass…..setup Ukrainian/Russian cross border institutions that have some say in the contested region…..like Republic of Ireland/UK has in Northern Ireland

 

Edited March 6, 2022 by changegonnacome

[Peregrine]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

 

NATO membership, even the idea, is completely over for Ukraine……..this is the fundamental purpose of the Russian invasion………the West taught Russia was fucking around when it said Ukrainian membership of NATO was red line issue………well this is what red line issues look like……Russia backed up its talk and invaded the whole goddam country. 

 

The same way the Cuban missle crisis was a red line issue for USA in the 1960’s……it wasn’t talk, they backed up with destroyers & the blockade in the Atlantic & nuclear missles pointed at Moscow

 

Russia has basically explicitly said that they're willing to go to thermonuclear war to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Do Western leaders really want to call to see if he's bluffing? That Ukraine joining NATO is not even remotely important enough to the West to even test that makes me optimistic that a successful negotiation can happen soon.

[CorpRaider]

Yeah probably better to just feed them conventional weapons and let them bleed the Russians out until and unless Putin steps down or gets whacked.  

Edited March 6, 2022 by CorpRaider

[Xerxes]

 

i am actually expecting a nuclear test of a sort (with an actual mushroom cloud), as the angered bear lets out a roar. 

 

But in reality, nuclear deterance will hold (unless someone misunderstands someone else' posture). Shipping Western money and h/w to the Ukrainian is all fair game. That said, Russia needs to gain ground in the war to have better chips when talks inveitably re-starts. What is possible, and probably scary, is a their low-yield tactical nukes, which is part of their conventional military doctrine.

 

[Spekulatius]

I think the end game is that the iron curtain is going to go up again, with different borders this time. This is what it’s going to boil down to.

[adesigar]

There is no way to predict the endgame. Its way out of my (and probably anyone on this board) league.  So the only thing I can think of to do is to buy defense stocks in the US and Europe and buy PetroChina which will probably benefit from XOM/BP/Shell leaving Russia.

Edited March 6, 2022 by adesigar

[Thrifty3000]

Put a fork in Russia. It's done.

 

Ukraine will fall in a few weeks/months. But, that's in no way a Russian victory. In fact, it will only expedite the Russian collapse. It may only take 100,000 to 200,000 Russian troops to conquer Ukraine, but conquering is never the hard part of a hostile takeover - sustaining power is.

 

It will take Russia's entire defense budget just to hold on to a land with 40 million pissed off enemies (keep in mind Ukraine's population is about a third of Russia's). Just look at how much the US has had to spend to maintain order in Iraq and Afghanistan. Further, the world-sanctioned Russian economy won't be able to feed and equip a 1-million person army to govern and police an obliterated Ukraine while Russia's own 140 million citizens are starving and pissed off as hell.

 

Russia (well, Putin's Russia) is done.

 

The big eye-opener for me in all this has been learning just how idiotic of a strategic miscalculation China's Xi made. Xi took what may be the dumbest wrong turn in history trying to drive a wedge between itself and the US, while buddying up with a broke-assed country ruled by a monster. (I'm only now realizing just how much more frail China has become as a result of all of this.)

[mcliu]

I think it's way too early to know the end game. Many ways this can play out, probably in ways we can't even imagine.

[Xerxes]

Agreed. To be fair everyone here know we are just bouncing around ideas.

Who could have known the biggest 2022 risk would be this in 2021.

 

I don't think China (Xi) made a mistake. I think they will eventually own Russia in several decades down the road. And in this crisis, they will be instrumental to connect Western allies and Kremlin, I think. 

 

I think of Russia (with Putin) as I think of Softbank, where the CEO has a 300 year vision but he wants to fast-track that in his life time. China's vision, which equals CCP's vision, goes well beyound the lifespan of one man. Xi is the beaurcrat of the moment, appointed 10 years ago, with a mandate of incremental assertivness. Will see if he is renewed for another 10 years as the Party' boss in the month of Oct, 2022. George Soros does not believe that he will be !

 

For whatever reason Westerners are obseesed in seeing Xi as a Chinese-like Putin, all because Xi extended presidential term. Westerners always see this from a Western point of view. The role of President does NOT mean anything in China. All that matters is the chairmanship of the party and who has it. In fact, (however unlikely) Xi can remain as the president of China and someone else can chosen as Secretary General of the CCP, and that new person will be the defacto ruler.   

Edited March 7, 2022 by Xerxes

[changegonnacome]

4 hours ago, Thrifty3000 said:

but conquering is never the hard part of a hostile takeover - sustaining power is.

 

This is a common mis-perception IMO - that Russia is going to seek to occupy Ukraine with troops for years etc. or even install a pro-russian government that would require Russian security assistance to maintain its power in Kiev. This is not whats happening & I don't believe this is the plan at all. Russia understands what occupying a hostile region looks like with insurgents & freedom fighters.....its hell......Russia just watched the worlds greatest military & economic power (the USA) fail to ever really gain control of Afghanistan & run away after 20 years with its tail between its legs.

 

The plan is to make it so Ukraine won't be joining NATO or the EU ever or anytime soon. Remember Russia's red line issue?

 

Therefore the plan is not to occupy Ukraine - the plan is to completely wreck Ukraine.........reduce large swathes of it to rubble, cripple it economically/militarily for a generation.......so its no fit partner for anyone EU/NATO/USA............AND importantly the next time Russia lays out a red line issue again which involves, let's face it, a non-strategically important country like Ukraine....the West won't push any further & will make concessions public or privately to Putin.

 

My view now having thought about it for a while - is that as the major cities of Ukraine empty of their civilians, Putin will move to an aerial assault strategy leveling Ukraine's major cities and major infrastructure with carpet bombing Ala BBC article I linked to above........this may go on for a few weeks but it won't take so long......then he will come to negotiating table and a peace of sorts will be agreed. He will be smirking in the photos as Western leaders like Macron claim a great diplomatic victory.

Edited March 7, 2022 by changegonnacome

[changegonnacome]

11 hours ago, Peregrine said:

That Ukraine joining NATO is not even remotely important enough to the West to even test that makes me optimistic that a successful negotiation can happen soon.

 

+1

 

as above Ukraine though will be wrecked first by aerial bombardment such that its hobbled for a generation.....the price has already been paid by Putin...... sanctions, international condemnation.......logic dictates that Russia's full objectives now need to be completed & Putin will swiftly move to aerial bombardment, decide on a level of destruction he deems appropriate......& then come to the negotiating table to participate in diplomacy theatre where each sanction lifted is traded for some Russian de-escalation (that they would have done anyway cause they have no intention of staying). Macron/Biden will eat up every hollow diplomatic 'victory' as a sign of their 'strength' and 'statesmanship',  cause they need it for their own domestic audiences but in reality they'll realize Putin is throwing them bones. He did what he wanted to do and nobody stood up to him.

Edited March 7, 2022 by changegonnacome

[formthirteen]

I don't know what the end game is other than to make sure that Russian culture and Slavic people are preserved and protected from imaginary and real invaders. From Vladimir the Great, and the mongol invasion, to Vladimir the FSB Agent, and the invasion of democracy that failed, there is a long history of strong leaders, autocratic rule, corruption, etc. This is the way.

Edited March 7, 2022 by formthirteen