Political Posts

[cubsfan]

^^^ I think we all on CoBF want to see the killing stop.  Diplomatic "optics" are so less important to me - hence all the nitpicking about Trump extending an olive branch to a disgusting dictator to meet on US soil, etc - is meaningless.

 

But to the press, the Democrats and many other second guessers - all that matters is "optics".  

 

You'll certainly find with Trump - he is relentless and believes in speed and constant movement. 

 

Call it "shock and awe" - US politics has never seen anything like it.

 

 

[changegonnacome]

 

I'm old enough to remember that last week a ceasefire was the MOST important thing Trump said he was going to get in Alaska or else there would be severe consequences for Russia? Secondary sanctions some other undefined consequences.  Remember?

 

What Trump thinks tends to be what Putin has told him in the last 72hrs......its like Helsinki all over again when he threw his own national security agencies under the bus cause their opinion contradicted what Putin had told him. Hilarious.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-threatens-severe-consequences-if-putin-blocks-ukraine-peace-2025-08-13/

 

"When asked if Russia would face any consequences if Putin does not agree to stop the war after Friday’s meeting, Trump responded: “Yes, they will. Asked if those consequences would be sanctions or tariffs, Trump told reporters: “I don't have to say. There will be very severe consequences."

[cubsfan]

25 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

I'm old enough to remember that last week a ceasefire was the MOST important thing Trump said he was going to get in Alaska or else there would be severe consequences for Russia? Secondary sanctions some other undefined consequences.  Remember?

 

What Trump thinks tends to be what Putin has told him in the last 72hrs......its like Helsinki all over again when he threw his own national security agencies under the bus cause their opinion contradicted what Putin had told him. Hilarious.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-threatens-severe-consequences-if-putin-blocks-ukraine-peace-2025-08-13/

 

"When asked if Russia would face any consequences if Putin does not agree to stop the war after Friday’s meeting, Trump responded: “Yes, they will. Asked if those consequences would be sanctions or tariffs, Trump told reporters: “I don't have to say. There will be very severe consequences."

 

Yeah, negotiating settlements to wars is really hilarious, especially when you have no control over the counterparties.

[changegonnacome]

10 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Yeah, negotiating settlements to wars is really hilarious, especially when you have no control over the counterparties.

 

Well the point of my hilarious comment is that you have control over yourself.....the old US takes a position say like an immediate ceasefire or else consequences and you stick to it and follow through.....you do what you say and say what you do.....its where credibility comes from, its how deterrents work.....Trump over and over again can't get out of his own way because rarely (if ever) does he seem to have coherent strategic plan......its freewheeling vibe diplomacy....and it seems chaotic because it is chaotic.

[cubsfan]

14 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Well the point of my hilarious comment is that you have control over yourself.....the old US takes a position say like an immediate ceasefire or else consequences and you stick to it and follow through.....you do what you say and say what you do.....its where credibility comes from, its how deterrents work.....Trump over and over again can't get out of his own way because rarely (if ever) does he seem to have coherent strategic plan......its freewheeling vibe diplomacy....and it seems chaotic because it is chaotic.

 

No - you're just being a ridiculous second guesser. You have no idea what is being negotiated behind the scenes or what the strategy is. Like other experts, all you care about is "optics" not "outcome".  Trump is dumb like a fox, and actually may get this thing settled - but that will never be good enough for you.

[Spekulatius]

33 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Well the point of my hilarious comment is that you have control over yourself.....the old US takes a position say like an immediate ceasefire or else consequences and you stick to it and follow through.....you do what you say and say what you do.....its where credibility comes from, its how deterrents work.....Trump over and over again can't get out of his own way because rarely (if ever) does he seem to have coherent strategic plan......its freewheeling vibe diplomacy....and it seems chaotic because it is chaotic.

I actually think that Trump can pull a peace deal off but he needs to show Putin the stick . So far he has only shown Putin carrots and Putin just ate them.

 

Nato needs to be guarantor of a peace deal which by extension involves the USA because nothing happens with NATO without the USA. The key is that the guarantor is credible to both sides (Ukraine and Russia). the territorial questions can up to debate and at imo

secondary  because if the guarantor issue is

not solved, promises and contracts wont

matter.

Edited August 18, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Milu]

I wonder if many of the Trump critics have been involved in complex negotiations before, or even played a game of poker. Many of the comments seem to revolve around, 'he said this and now he said that, what an idiot' whereas in reality nobody knows what trumps full strategy is. When you are negotiating a deal there is a lot of smokescreening of intentions and feeling out the other parties through different comments, going aggressive, then walking away. All of which will give more information on the other parties position. Revealing your true intentions from the outset or having some static upfront strategy is not how you win when negotiating with Putin.

[cubsfan]

Ukraine will never be allowed in NATO, since that's a large reason for this war.

 

You can be sure Putin has seen the stick, as Trump has not been shy about threatening secondary sanctions, which would be awful for Russia, but awful for India and China as well - so that is a game of chicken that needs to be used as a last resort, since it is so drastic. And Putin knows that Trump may supply unlimited armaments to both Ukraine and Europe, although that involvement will tick off his MAGA base.

 

The guarantor of peace needs to be the Europeans, not NATO, as there is no way Putin can go back to his oligarchs and say he is the reason for allowing Ukraine into NATO. He might as well commit suicide.  

 

To insure his face saving to the Russian people - he may actually get Zelensky to step down as well. We will see about that.

[changegonnacome]

5 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I actually think that Trump can pull a peace deal off but he needs to show Putin the stick . So far he has only shown Putin carrots and Putin just ate them.

 

Agree - alot of talk about sticks....but no sticks so far......I think we might be pass that point anyway....I mean when you get down to it what sticks are actually left?.....secondary sanctions with very questionable efficacy and likely long lag times before they bite.......Ukraine can sustain its front lines with adequate manpower for at best another year perhaps........

 

Putin grinning like a cat in Alaska was a sight to behold......he looks like the cat who got the milk very sickening sight to see.....back getting red carpet treatment in the West, riding in the back of the 'the beast' with POTUS, almost universal understanding that he keeps what he currently holds and that the remainder of Ukraine moving forward will be effectively demilitarized with fuzzy security guarantees about a bazzillion miles away from NATO like article five protection.

 

Trump blew a long time ago any strategic ambiguity around what he might do with the Ukraine portfolio.....effectively letting Putin know he would let the Ukrainians bleed out on the battlefield via underwhelming future military assistance.....and we are where are Putin dictating terms to the West and using Trump as his carrier pigeon.

[cubsfan]

6 minutes ago, Milu said:

I wonder if many of the Trump critics have been involved in complex negotiations before, or even played a game of poker. Many of the comments seem to revolve around, 'he said this and now he said that, what an idiot' whereas in reality nobody knows what trumps full strategy is. When you are negotiating a deal there is a lot of smokescreening of intentions and feeling out the other parties through different comments, going aggressive, then walking away. All of which will give more information on the other parties position. Revealing your true intentions from the outset or having some static upfront strategy is not how you win when negotiating with Putin.

 

Exactly. You say things in public, and you say things in private. At all times, you keep the talks going, and do not alienate your counterparties (or embarrass them).

But at all costs - you keep the talks going. Biden and Anthony Blinken were complete fools who refused to even talk to Putin. And Putin just shoved it right up their ass - and here you are today trying to clean up the mess.

[changegonnacome]

10 minutes ago, Milu said:

in reality nobody knows what trumps full strategy is.

 

Yep nobody knows Including Trump.......you ought to read various accounts of Trump 45 from those in his administration .......really credible people.....Trump doesnt do strategy....he does press conferences.

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Agree - alot of talk about sticks....but no sticks so far......I think we might be pass that point anyway....I mean when you get down to it what sticks are actually left?.....secondary sanctions with very questionable efficacy and likely long lag times before they bite.......Ukraine can sustain its front lines with adequate manpower for at best another year perhaps........

 

Putin grinning like a cat in Alaska was a sight to behold......he looks like the cat who got the milk very sickening sight to see.....back getting red carpet treatment in the West, riding in the back of the 'the beast' with POTUS, almost universal understanding that he keeps what he currently holds and that the remainder of Ukraine moving forward will be effectively demilitarized with fuzzy security guarantees about a bazzillion miles away from NATO like article five protection.

 

Trump blew a long time ago any strategic ambiguity around what he might do with the Ukraine portfolio.....effectively letting Putin know he would let the Ukrainians bleed out on the battlefield via underwhelming future military assistance.....and we are where are Putin dictating terms to the West and using Trump as his carrier pigeon.

 

I can't wait for you to lay out your strategic vision for solving this conflict.

Now you are starting to sound like the feckless European leaders.

 

IF you think you will solve this conflict by not treating Putin like world leader he is and engaging in meaniful dialogue - you are sadly mistaken.

 

The meeting on August 15th in Alaska was a MAJOR milestone in ending this war.

[Gregmal]

Nah these folks think negotiating is lying lmfao 

[changegonnacome]

what a bonkers thing to say to other world leaders......delusional & deluded, narcissistic and child-like....he sounds like a teenage girl with a crush

 

 

[Milu]

47 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Yep nobody knows Including Trump.......you ought to read various accounts of Trump 45 from those in his administration .......really credible people.....Trump doesnt do strategy....he does press conferences.

Maybe, but I think Trump has proved time and time again the ability overcome and succeed in all kinds of situations. You'd think at this point people would give him the benefit of the doubt, yet here we are and most people are doubting the potential for success or even rooting for failure. Any stuff I've read about trump from people inside the ropes is that he takes a lot of opinions from his advisors, businessmen, other world leaders, triangulates these while retaining a lot of flexibility to change his approach on a dime. He will then decide on an approach but retain flexibility to roll things back or go in different direction if things change. So depending on your opinion of trump it's either a bull in a china shop, or a rational approach of getting information, testing, reassessing, testing again. It looks messy but is quite effective in my opinion.

[cubsfan]

2 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

what a bonkers thing to say to other world leaders......delusional & deluded, narcissistic and child-like....he sounds like a teenage girl with a crush

 

 

 

Why is that crazy?   It's looking like Russia actually wants to have a repaired relationship with the United States. After Obama, Hillary, Biden, Blinken and the rest of the geniuses cast Russia as the corruptor of US elections, Trump as a puppet to Putin, etc 

 

Is it so crazy that Russia might actually like to have a productive relationship with the United States?

 

What could be better for the world than the US and Russia go down that path.

 

[Sweet]

The problem with these negotiations is who can you trust?

 

Putin has broken multiple Ukraine agreements already.

 

Trump changes his mind often and would he be willing to send troops to Ukraine - I think not.

[John Hjorth]

8 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

... What could be better for the world than the US and Russia go down that path.

 

Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

Honestly, what is it that is happenening and going on rececently with you?! -Have you lost your mind, or have you just dropped your pacifier, now desparately searching for a new one?

[Sweet]

28 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Why is that crazy?   It's looking like Russia actually wants to have a repaired relationship with the United States. After Obama, Hillary, Biden, Blinken and the rest of the geniuses cast Russia as the corruptor of US elections, Trump as a puppet to Putin, etc 

 

Is it so crazy that Russia might actually like to have a productive relationship with the United States?

 

What could be better for the world than the US and Russia go down that path.

 

Russia and the US have opposing world views and spheres of influence and naturally butt heads.  The way for that relationship to significantly improve it would require one or both to seriously diminish in power, or if Russia becomes more democratic and Western orientated.  Both seem unlikely.  It seems to me to be a bit like hoping the Israelis and Palestinians would just be productive friends.

 

Edited August 18, 2025 by Sweet

[cubsfan]

11 minutes ago, Sweet said:

The problem with these negotiations is who can you trust?

 

Putin has broken multiple Ukraine agreements already.

 

Trump changes his mind often and would he be willing to send troops to Ukraine - I think not.

 

You can't trust Putin, but you do have to deal with him. That is reality.

 

I pray Trump never sends troops to Ukraine, but he may back a security guarantee which will upset his base. 

[Sweet]

Just now, cubsfan said:

 

You can't trust Putin, but you do have to deal with him. That is reality.

 

I pray Trump never sends troops to Ukraine, but he may back a security guarantee which will upset his base. 

As everyone is finding out, the only way to deal with Putin is with power.  Soft diplomacy doesn’t work.  It’s military has been wrecked in Ukraine.  So yeh you have to deal with him but you can’t be weak in his face.

[cubsfan]

12 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

Honestly, what is it that is happenening and going on rececently with you?! -Have you lost your mind, or have you just dropped your pacifier, now desparately searching for a new one?

 

You're funny @John Hjorth

 

For a continent (Europe) that has NO problem at all buying Russian Oil & Gas, proping up the Russian Economy for years on end - that's a big statement.

The USA ws not the one keeping Russia rich - it was Europe.

 

Don't lose sight of the goal:  End the War

 

In the process, you may actually have to re-establish some economic ties with the hated dictator Putin - which you had no problem with before.

 

After all, we are not the ones that built the Nordstream Pipeline with a dictator.

[cubsfan]

7 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Russia and the US have opposing world views and spheres of influence and naturally butt heads.  The way for that relationship to significantly improve it would require one or both to seriously diminish in power, or if Russia becomes more democratic and Western orientated.  Both seem unlikely.  It seems to me to be a bit like hoping the Israelis and Palestinians would just be productive friends.

 

 

Ronald Reagan broke the USSR with military spending - broke it wide open.

It took years.  It can certainly happen again.

 

Donald Trump, along with the Israelis, just broke Iran. Don't think Putin didn't notice.

 

We don't hate Russia - we just need them to behave. Europe needs them to behave -  yet, they made them rich. Now that Europe has actually woken up - and may take NATO and Russian aggression seriously - you have a chance to re-establish a relationship of "trust yet verify".

 

You combine the stick with the carrot - and you may actually get somewhere.

[cubsfan]

9 minutes ago, Sweet said:

As everyone is finding out, the only way to deal with Putin is with power.  Soft diplomacy doesn’t work.  It’s military has been wrecked in Ukraine.  So yeh you have to deal with him but you can’t be weak in his face.

 

100% - but you can break him economically before you unleash the military - which Europe is not willing to do. Europe has had 3 years to unleash hell on Russia - and nothing but a war of words and insults has been the result.

 

 

[John Hjorth]

7 minutes ago, Sweet said:

The problem with these negotiations is who can you trust?

 

Putin has broken multiple Ukraine agreements already.

 

Trump changes his mind often and would he be willing to send troops to Ukraine - I think not.

 

Wrong, totally wrong,

 

If you engage with someone, who can't be trusted in a deal, it's naturally Okay. ANd it's actually not that complicated.

 

You simply have to make sure your counterpart delivers first, and you later, not the other way around.

 

In financial terms, by a CFO it's called 'No credit available to you!'. If the counterpart asks you - feeling very hurt and insulted : 'Why?', Your answer is always : 'That may appear evident to you already!' Works every time, especially in the case of an balance already existing! - It's called request for prepayment.

 

Handing over land to Putin in exchange for a promise about something related to him promising not to do something in the future, him not pursuing in his wet imperialistic dreams and fantasies, is not only naive, it's also plain dumb.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Absolutely no need to handle things like a nun who has never tried to have a certain [male], not further specified, thingy in her hands! - After making this mistake perhaps one time, you'll never engage in it again!