Parsad Posted March 31 Posted March 31 1 hour ago, Libs said: Buffett is a hero to me in so many ways.....but like all humans, he's complicated and flawed. It does seem like he will turn on someone quickly. It always bothered me that he told Alice Schroeder, who he hand-picked to write his biography, to write it all, even the hard truths- and then immediately cold-shouldered her after she did exactly that. I think we have an unhealthy desire for our heroes to be perfect. That saying...never meet your heroes...exists for a reason! Cheers!
Parsad Posted March 31 Posted March 31 1 hour ago, Gregmal said: What’s even more funny is the well known love both Gates and Buffett had for playing Bridge. They’re both on records as having played together extensively. What’s also interesting is how Gates’ Russian girlfriend was very often one of his bridge teammates. So if I’m a man with two bits of reasoning skills I’d probably also wager that Buffett knew about all this. And was cool with it on the condition that none of it became public LMFAO….its like a classic LA/Hollywood friendship! You’re only good to me as long as your reputation benefits me! Also, wasn't it Gates who looked uncomfortable in that "Hooters" picture from a few years ago...Buffett was smiling! Buffett is one of the most well-connected people in the world...you don't think he heard rumors about Epstein...or after Epstein was already convicted the first time in 2009? Gates was still hanging out with Epstein and Buffett then. Regardless, none of my business...I want to know how Trump mentioned nearly a million times in the files...still eludes any sort of investigation! Cheers!
Hektor Posted March 31 Posted March 31 1 hour ago, Viking said: We all want to see the war end. An end to the stalemate would be good news (I think). As a reminder, below is a list of what Iran wants. At some point, Iran will want the US/Israeli's to sign on the dotted one. Lot's of work yet to be done. ----------- Iran’s Core Demands (as of late March 2026) Iran has put forward a multi-point ceasefire framework. The key elements are: 1) Immediate end to military attacks A full halt to U.S./Israeli strikes, including airstrikes and targeted assassinations Iran frames this as ending “aggression” 2) Binding guarantees the war will not resume Iran wants credible, enforceable assurances (not just a ceasefire) This is critical because Iran does not trust temporary agreements based on past experience 3) Financial compensation (reparations) Payment for: Infrastructure damage Civilian losses This is a non-trivial sticking point—rare in modern ceasefire deals 4) No further regime-change efforts or interference Implicit but central: End assassination campaigns End attempts to destabilize the Iranian government This directly counters stated U.S./Israeli objectives of regime change 5) Maintain strategic control (especially Strait of Hormuz) Iran has refused to concede control or access terms over the Strait of Hormuz This is a major leverage point given its importance to global oil flows 6) Broader regional inclusion (in some proposals) Iran has pushed for: Inclusion of Lebanon / regional theaters in any ceasefire Reflects that the war is not confined to Iran alone The Core Conflict: Why a Deal Is Difficult The gap between Iran and the U.S./Israel is structural, not tactical: U.S./Israel demands (simplified) End uranium enrichment Dismantle nuclear program Restrict missile capabilities Cut support to regional allies Iran’s position Willing to stop fighting, but: Not willing to capitulate strategically Not willing to give up deterrence (nuclear/missiles/influence) Bottom Line Iran’s demands can be reduced to three strategic objectives: Stop the war without surrendering power Lock in long-term security guarantees Preserve geopolitical leverage (especially energy chokepoints) That is why negotiations are stalled: The U.S. is pushing for structural concessions Iran is pushing for security and sovereignty preservation I guess they don't know of this statement from a historically great person: "You're not in a good position. You don't have the cards right now"
Parsad Posted March 31 Posted March 31 1 hour ago, Viking said: I think we have incomplete information. One additional piece of information we do have: Gates marriage blew up. Why? Speculation: Bill's association with Epstein, leading to trust issues for Melinda. Doesn't appear to be a loyalty thing to me. I'm with Buffett on this one. Giving your wife VD from a hooker, and then quietly trying to get her to take antibiotics for it, would probably lead to some trust issues! His team is denying it, but Melinda in her interview did not deny it. Cheers!
Red Lion Posted March 31 Posted March 31 Is Trump TACO'ing on Iran, or is he about to head fake them for the third time in a year? I just think it's strange that he makes a big point of wanting to pull out and let our allies fend for themselves on Hormuz right after moving ground troops into place. I could see either possibility, but just pulling out while letting IRGC charge a toll on oil tankers would pretty clearly seem to be a failed operation that he instigated himself.
Parsad Posted March 31 Posted March 31 1 hour ago, Viking said: Well looking at financial markets it appears the war in the Persian Gulf will be ending soon. What a relief! I can step back from the ledge. What changed? President Trump posted a 'truth'. Really? Yup. ----------- "Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me" is a proverb meaning that while it is understandable to be tricked once (the deceiver's fault), allowing the same person to trick you again makes it your own fault for not learning from the experience. It emphasizes personal responsibility, caution, and learning from mistakes. ------------ Here is an alternative perspective: the US will leave the Gulf when Iran lets them. I know that sounds ludicrous. But what has been happening the past 4.5 weeks is even more ludicrous. People need to read Joseph Heller's book Catch 22 to more fully appreciate just how messed up the world is becoming (with Trump being just one of the central characters). The problem the world has is the Straight of Hormuz is closed. It has been closed for 4.5 weeks. We are just getting to the fun part (physical shortages). Let that sink in... Iran will open the straight when they get agreement on their war demands. I don't think that is a crazy thing to say. What else would you expect them to do (if you were in their shoes)? It shouldn't be a complicated thing for people to understand. Obviously, the US has figured out they can't open the straight. That's why they are desperate to pull out before it really gets bad (the physical shortages). If the US can't open the straight - and they have the greatest military in the world - why do we think the rest of the world can? What needs to happen? Let me say it again: Iran has already told you what needs to happen. Listen, I am not a fan of the regime in Iran. Writing this doesn't make me happy. But being open minded/inquisitive/rational is important for investors. Yes, we will get through this. ----------- Joseph Heller’s Catch-22 (1961) is a satirical novel set during World War II, centered on Captain Yossarian, a U.S. Army Air Forces bombardier stationed on a Mediterranean island. Core premise: Yossarian is desperate to avoid flying more combat missions because each mission brings a high probability of death. However, he is trapped in a bureaucratic system that continually raises the required number of missions and prevents him from being grounded. Tone and structure: Nonlinear, fragmented narrative Dark humor mixed with existential anxiety Characters often represent exaggerated institutional archetypes Core themes: Absurdity of war Dehumanizing bureaucracy Self-preservation vs duty The illusion of rational systems Why Heller Wrote the Book Heller drew heavily from his own experience as a WWII bombardier. But the novel is not simply autobiographical—it is a critique of modern institutions: Postwar disillusionment: After WWII, many writers questioned whether large organizations (military, corporate, government) were rational or fundamentally absurd. Cold War context: The rise of nuclear risk and massive bureaucracies heightened fears of systems beyond individual control. Satirical intent: Heller wanted to expose how rules designed to appear logical can produce irrational and harmful outcomes. In essence, Catch-22 is less about WWII specifically and more about how systems trap individuals through internally consistent—but insane—logic. Circular Logic (“Catch-22”) — The Central Device The term “Catch-22” itself refers to a self-reinforcing, no-win rule. The most famous example: A pilot can be grounded if he is insane. But if he requests to be grounded, that proves he is sane (because only a sane person would fear death). Therefore, he must continue flying. Structure of the logic: Rule A: Insane people don’t have to fly missions. Rule B: You must request evaluation to be declared insane. Rule Wanting to avoid danger is rational → proves sanity. Conclusion: No one qualifies as insane → everyone must fly. This is circular and self-sealing: The rule uses its own outcome as proof of its validity. There is no external criterion to break the loop. Broader Use of Circular Logic in the Novel Heller generalizes this pattern across the system: Mission quotas: The number of required missions keeps increasing, making completion impossible in practice. Authority justification: Officers make arbitrary decisions but justify them using the same rules they control. Moral inversion: Actions that are clearly irrational (risking lives unnecessarily) are framed as duty or patriotism. Bottom Line Catch-22 is a system-level critique: Heller shows that institutions can become logically consistent yet functionally insane, trapping individuals in loops where: Compliance is mandatory Escape is impossible Logic itself becomes the mechanism of control The phrase “Catch-22” has since entered common language to describe exactly this kind of closed-loop, self-validating constraint. Guys...sometimes just too much analysis leads to paralysis! This was an opportunity like many, and trying to tear it apart in a million pieces just creates more questions and removes an investor from the whole Ben Graham framework of investing...buy cheap assets when available based on liquidation value or discount cash flow. That is the ONLY thing in your control...nothing else...no matter how many angles we look at it from, or scenarios we imagine that could be plausible outcomes! Cheers!
Viking Posted March 31 Posted March 31 1 minute ago, Parsad said: Guys...sometimes just too much analysis leads to paralysis! This was an opportunity like many, and trying to tear it apart in a million pieces just creates more questions and removes an investor from the whole Ben Graham framework of investing...buy cheap assets when available based on liquidation value or discount cash flow. That is the ONLY thing in your control...nothing else...no matter how many angles we look at it from, or scenarios we imagine that could be plausible outcomes! Cheers! +1
rogermunibond Posted March 31 Posted March 31 (edited) I remember Sokol being slippery but not Lubriderm slippery. LOL Edited March 31 by rogermunibond
dealraker Posted March 31 Posted March 31 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Viking said: +1 I spent as much time analyzing my buds Viking and Parsad through the years. It paid handsomely. (And that damn frustrating far-right dude Greg). Raising two high functioning spectrum kids I'll tell you that relationships with them is far more give than receive. If you don't put a lot of bold effort and thoughtful skill into this setting then it can get very unhealthy. But you can have an affect on the relationships there, you just have to set limits as to what you expect. It actually turns out very well in some respects as often they are also very successfully independent requiring little from you later on. I've never consulted Buffett output for ideas on how to have relationships. It seems a stretch to think you should be like him or Gates. Edited March 31 by dealraker
Hektor Posted March 31 Posted March 31 52 minutes ago, Red Lion said: Is Trump TACO'ing on Iran, or is he about to head fake them for the third time in a year? https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-war-news-updates/card/third-u-s-aircraft-carrier-deploys-to-middle-east-BQiAVrUaFj22m7WOtXy3 Third U.S. Aircraft Carrier Deploys to Middle East The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush and its accompanying warships are deploying to the Middle East, joining the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike groups in the region, according to U.S. officials.
Sweet Posted March 31 Posted March 31 1 hour ago, Red Lion said: Is Trump TACO'ing on Iran, or is he about to head fake them for the third time in a year? I just think it's strange that he makes a big point of wanting to pull out and let our allies fend for themselves on Hormuz right after moving ground troops into place. I could see either possibility, but just pulling out while letting IRGC charge a toll on oil tankers would pretty clearly seem to be a failed operation that he instigated himself. Whatever the case, it’s kind of obvious even to those with little expertise in the subject, that the Iran war hadn’t been gamed out sufficiently. This has been as bad as Venezuela was good.. Trump could yet etch out a fix here though, he has the levers he can pull. I wouldn’t expect the ‘allies’ to help, not least because they weren’t asked initially, but when you go around treating your friends like shit you can’t really expect to jump when you say how high.
Red Lion Posted March 31 Posted March 31 23 minutes ago, Sweet said: Whatever the case, it’s kind of obvious even to those with little expertise in the subject, that the Iran war hadn’t been gamed out sufficiently. This has been as bad as Venezuela was good.. Trump could yet etch out a fix here though, he has the levers he can pull. I wouldn’t expect the ‘allies’ to help, not least because they weren’t asked initially, but when you go around treating your friends like shit you can’t really expect to jump when you say how high. Agreed. I suspect he might try to keep escalating since I think it’s very hard to spin this as anything other than a big blunder without unilateral victory and control of the straight of hormuth at a minimum. I think trump is going to take the path he thinks most likely to give him yet another political turnaround.
John Hjorth Posted March 31 Posted March 31 On 3/30/2026 at 12:46 AM, Parsad said: Can't do that John...Buffett talks about incentives...what type of incentive would it be to ban you for errors in judgment by other members?! I adjusted Xerxes ban...he will be free tomorrow. He just needed to stop arguing and go back to posting. 73Reds on the other hand gets his full 30 days...he's been emailing me justifying his position and that he doesn't need to apologize for anything. I told him I wasn't looking for an apology, only that he needed to detach himself from the thread for a bit. Ourkid8 really should have been another ban...but he stopped arguing and went back to posting. He's under watch right now! I don't like banning people, but just focus on debating and posting, not personal attacks guys! Cheers! I fear we've lost @Xerxes as an active CofB&F member for good. Naturally, time will tell.
John Hjorth Posted March 31 Posted March 31 6 hours ago, Marco Van Basten said: Actually, the article is a bald faced lie. If you bother to read the bill rather than the propaganda that FT & ourkid8 are putting out, you will see that there is nothing in the bill that prevents Jews who commit terrorist acts from being subject to the death penalty. As an aside, what is wrong with hanging murderers? Please provide a link to your source.
dealraker Posted March 31 Posted March 31 So on another subject, as to mid-terms or what happens after Trump whenever that comes, I'm also on a different page than most. I think Trump is for Trump and Trump $, control, power, media attention, etc. If you think he wants a Republican surrounding or as a next President whenever that comes. I think if he's still alive he'd rather be ranting about a Democrat than being compared to a fellow Republican. His great successful sell is the grievance, the bitch, the blame. He doesn't care about anyone no matter what their party. Yes he will try to alter the mid-term elections, but that's just him wanting control and not a grand desire for Republicans to win..
John Hjorth Posted March 31 Posted March 31 https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116323481956698353 I'm not any longer going to post the contents of POTUS' posts from this medium. I refer to the posts upstream by Eric [ @cwericb ], no need to elaborate further. POTUS is simply a moron.
Red Lion Posted March 31 Posted March 31 24 minutes ago, dealraker said: So on another subject, as to mid-terms or what happens after Trump whenever that comes, I'm also on a different page than most. I think Trump is for Trump and Trump $, control, power, media attention, etc. I agree with this, but it seems like he's able to make more on all of those fronts if the democrats don't take the house. That seems very probable though at this point.
DooDiligence Posted March 31 Posted March 31 (edited) trump has an unquenchable thirst for more of everything he's a MASSIVE attention whore his lies are an embarrassment his entire life is a pox on the planet Edited March 31 by DooDiligence
Marco Van Basten Posted March 31 Posted March 31 45 minutes ago, John Hjorth said: Please provide a link to your source. Read the bill and then find the place that says does not apply to Jews. I will give you a hint, you won’t find it. Again, what’s wrong with hanging terrorists?
John Hjorth Posted March 31 Posted March 31 1 minute ago, Marco Van Basten said: Read the bill and then find the place that says does not apply to Jews. I will give you a hint, you won’t find it. Again, what’s wrong with hanging terrorists? Let it go. I asked for a link.
cubsfan Posted March 31 Posted March 31 Amazing night last night. Iran's largest ammo dump taken out last night - massive explosions. Trump's job is almost done, Bibi can handle the regime change, he has total air supremacy. Saudis and UAE joining Israel against Iran. The Jihadi governments in UK, France and Spain will ally with IRGC against Israel. If the losers in Europe want their oil - screw 'em - they get to go get it.
DooDiligence Posted March 31 Posted March 31 "A man pardoned by President Donald Trump for his actions on Jan. 6 has been sentenced for possessing more than 100,000 child sexual abuse images and videos discovered in connection with his Capitol riot case." https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/jan-6-rioter-pardoned-by-trump-sentenced-child-pornography-collection-rcna265963 === In other news, "President Donald Trump's former spiritual advisor, Robert Preston Morris, said Tuesday as he was released from prison after serving time for child sexual abuse that what he did "was wrong." The 64-year-old Texas megachurch founder pleaded guilty last year to abusing a girl, starting when she was 12 in 1982, in Oklahoma." https://www.newsweek.com/robert-morris-gateway-church-jail-child-sex-abuse-11765306 === maga LOL
Marco Van Basten Posted March 31 Posted March 31 42 minutes ago, John Hjorth said: Let it go. I asked for a link. And I asked you to state what is wrong with hanging terrorists? The Knesset website, from which I pulled the bill earlier today is giving me an error message. I will check it again tomorrow, and if it working, post it.
Libs Posted March 31 Posted March 31 Here's my prediction: Trump wraps this war up shortly without opening SOH; Iran can then cut a deal with the other countries to reopen it without appearing to have caved to the devil U.S. IOW it's more likely the SOH is opened once the U.S is out of the picture. The problem is the 60% enriched nuclear material. How do we destroy / remove it?
cubsfan Posted March 31 Posted March 31 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Libs said: Here's my prediction: Trump wraps this war up shortly without opening SOH; Iran can then cut a deal with the other countries to reopen it without appearing to have caved to the devil U.S. IOW it's more likely the SOH is opened once the U.S is out of the picture. I like it - perfect! So Trump has another 5/6 days to take out military targets. Edited March 31 by cubsfan
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