Parsad Posted March 31 Posted March 31 47 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said: Actually, trump has an option to escalate meaningfully. It is to stop Iranian crude from leaving Hormuz the same way that Iran is stopping everyone else. +1! That's exactly what he's doing or suggesting. Equal pain! The U.S. gets hurt the least out of all of this...Europe and Asia may be pissed, but it will push them to help negotiate with the Middle East neighbors and come to some settlement with Iran. The easiest thing for Trump, and what he loves to do, is just wash his hands of the messes he creates and move on to something else...the man is a classic case of ADHD! Please pick up my shit behind me, while I go lay some more excrement for the world to pick up! Cheers!
cubsfan Posted March 31 Posted March 31 8 minutes ago, changegonnacome said: Sure but eventually you run out of those targets. The ability to escalate from here is limited for the US IMO.....limited by military math (troops, bases & equipment), limited by the domestic politics in the US and limited by escalation dominance. No doubt that finding targets gets more difficult. But none of us knows when it becomes impossible or how many are left. The US military claims there are still thousands of targets left - so every day is very productive. Just last night Israel did 400 attacks on military 170 targets - and that is just Israel. Both militaries appear extremely productive. At any rate, the 10 day deadline gives them free reign on more military targets.
Parsad Posted March 31 Posted March 31 Hey, I thought these guys were just peaceful protestors? PPPhhhhhpppphhhtttttt! Cheers! Trump's pardons cause 'mayhem' as recipients go on 'crime spree': NYT
Parsad Posted March 31 Posted March 31 Just now, Parsad said: Hey, I thought these guys were just peaceful protestors? PPPhhhhhpppphhhtttttt! Cheers! Trump's pardons cause 'mayhem' as recipients go on 'crime spree': NYT They should give President's the right to only do 5 pardons for each year served during their term(s). Cheers!
Parsad Posted March 31 Posted March 31 And Trumpie was best friends with this guy!! How do people ignore this and say it isn't important? Cheers! Warren Buffett cuts ties with friend Bill Gates after Epstein files bombshell
Blake Hampton Posted March 31 Posted March 31 “Build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us,” Trump posted on his Truth Social network. “Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!” — Donald Trump Crude oil is an extremely globalized commodity. Even though the United States is a net petroleum exporter, this large of an energy shock will still cause large price spikes that we’ll not be able to easily escape. A fifth of the world’s total petroleum supply is cut off from getting to market. There’s also other large disruptions in forms of important energy such as LNG and fertilizer. We started this conflict. It seems now that Trump’s best idea for a solution is to simply walk away because it won’t affect us, Asia and Europe be damned.
changegonnacome Posted March 31 Posted March 31 59 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said: Actually, trump has an option to escalate meaningfully. It is to stop Iranian crude from leaving Hormuz the same way that Iran is stopping everyone else. Yes considered that....but I think its another version (when you think about it) of escalating to the destruction of energy and water assets in the region. Trump has somewhat bluffed and backed down on something adjacent already (two day deadlines, five day, ten days etc etc.). Say Trump blocks Iranian ships with the threat of destruction...IMO the US is not moving any naval assets into the Strait so threatening destruction is the blockade here versus ship posturing......Iran indicates that the destruction of Iranian ships in the Strait would result in the destruction of neighbouring energy and desalination plants in the region. Iran sends a ship through - Trump either folds or follows through on the threat. Its a lose-lose for Trump, the region, the globe IMO. Nobody has any interest in going down this energy & GCC armageddon road IMO and I think it would be foolish to do so, its a version of economic MAD....the incrementality in terms of strategic objectives for the US from going down this route are limited (you don't get regime change for example) and downsides for the global economy and the sustainability of the region substantial. The wisest course of action IMO for the US is to step back from the Iranian theatre once all CENTCOM targets are exhausted, paper some kind of deal or maybe just a ceasefire where everybody is pretending to work on a deal and then watch to see if domestic centrifugal forces in a post-defanged, deeply weakened, humiliated Islamic regime are such that the Iranian people might finish the job the US/Israel started. Mossad was briefing Bibi before the war about the perilous nature of the Iranian regime, it appears to have been the pretense under which Trump was convinced to act. A low overhead, low cost and low risk course of action for the US/Israel here is to see what domestic forces emerge on the ground in Iran.
Blake Hampton Posted March 31 Posted March 31 (edited) Hopefully Iran decides to open up. Who knows what will happen. But one thing I know for certain is that America is quickly losing any remaining credibility we had abroad. The world is increasingly disgusted with us at the same time that we’re increasingly reliant on their imports and financing. No one can say it’s not interesting. Edited March 31 by Blake Hampton
Gregmal Posted March 31 Posted March 31 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Parsad said: And Trumpie was best friends with this guy!! How do people ignore this and say it isn't important? Cheers! Warren Buffett cuts ties with friend Bill Gates after Epstein files bombshell Idk, but again this kinda highlights how shitty Buffetts personal relationships are. I mean back out of the hysterics and headlines. Buffett and Gates were definitely long time buddies. Besties is the word some use. If I had an extensive relationship with someone, especially a friend of many decades, and something serious happened or came out, or whatever; let alone what occurred with Gates which doesn’t even indicate he did anything illegal…I’d at least reach out and maybe offer to hear their side of things. Buffett? Discards that friend with the callousness of trading a stock lmfao. Definitely some autism in there. Definitely more concern for money and business reputation. You can ask Gates. You can ask his kids. His wives…. Edited March 31 by Gregmal
gfp Posted March 31 Posted March 31 4 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Idk, but again this kinda highlights how shitty Buffetts personal relationships are. I mean back out of the hysterics and headlines. Buffett and Gates were definitely long time buddies. Besties is the word some use. If I had an extensive relationship with someone, especially a friend of many decades, and something serious happened or came out, or whatever; let alone what occurred with Gates which doesn’t even indicate he did anything illegal…I’d at least reach out and maybe offer to hear their side of things. Buffett? Discards that friend with the callousness of trading a stock lmfao. Definitely some autism in there. Definitely more concern for money and business reputation. You can ask Gates. You can ask his kids. His wives…. Lose one shred of reputation for my firm and I will be ruthless - he has been saying it for years
Gregmal Posted March 31 Posted March 31 3 minutes ago, gfp said: Lose one shred of reputation for my firm and I will be ruthless - he has been saying it for years Yup. And the other side of that is that you can’t even bother attempting to be a decent friend when you’re a few years away from ceasing to exist and no longer in charge of the “firm”. Folks got different life priorities I guess.
cwericb Posted March 31 Posted March 31 My definition of friends includes the word "loyalty". Guess I am just old fashioned.
Gregmal Posted March 31 Posted March 31 (edited) What’s even more funny is the well known love both Gates and Buffett had for playing Bridge. They’re both on records as having played together extensively. What’s also interesting is how Gates’ Russian girlfriend was very often one of his bridge teammates. So if I’m a man with two bits of reasoning skills I’d probably also wager that Buffett knew about all this. And was cool with it on the condition that none of it became public LMFAO….its like a classic LA/Hollywood friendship! You’re only good to me as long as your reputation benefits me! Edited March 31 by Gregmal
Libs Posted March 31 Posted March 31 12 minutes ago, Gregmal said: What’s even more funny is the well known love both Gates and Buffett had for playing Bridge. They’re both on records as having played together extensively. What’s also interesting is how Gates’ Russian girlfriend was very often one of his bridge teammates. So if I’m a man with two bits of reasoning skills I’d probably also wager that Buffett knew about all this. And was cool with it on the condition that none of it became public LMFAO….its like a classic LA/Hollywood friendship! You’re only good to me as long as your reputation benefits me! Buffett is a hero to me in so many ways.....but like all humans, he's complicated and flawed. It does seem like he will turn on someone quickly. It always bothered me that he told Alice Schroeder, who he hand-picked to write his biography, to write it all, even the hard truths- and then immediately cold-shouldered her after she did exactly that. I think we have an unhealthy desire for our heroes to be perfect.
Viking Posted March 31 Posted March 31 (edited) Well looking at financial markets it appears the war in the Persian Gulf will be ending soon. What a relief! I can step back from the ledge. What changed? President Trump posted a 'truth'. Really? Yup. ----------- "Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me" is a proverb meaning that while it is understandable to be tricked once (the deceiver's fault), allowing the same person to trick you again makes it your own fault for not learning from the experience. It emphasizes personal responsibility, caution, and learning from mistakes. ------------ Here is an alternative perspective: the US will leave the Gulf when Iran lets them. I know that sounds ludicrous. But what has been happening the past 4.5 weeks is even more ludicrous. People need to read Joseph Heller's book Catch 22 to more fully appreciate just how messed up the world is becoming (with Trump being just one of the central characters). The problem the world has is the Straight of Hormuz is closed. It has been closed for 4.5 weeks. We are just getting to the fun part (physical shortages). Let that sink in... Iran will open the straight when they get agreement on their war demands. I don't think that is a crazy thing to say. What else would you expect them to do (if you were in their shoes)? It shouldn't be a complicated thing for people to understand. Obviously, the US has figured out they can't open the straight. That's why they are desperate to pull out before it really gets bad (the physical shortages). If the US can't open the straight - and they have the greatest military in the world - why do we think the rest of the world can? What needs to happen? Let me say it again: Iran has already told you what needs to happen. Listen, I am not a fan of the regime in Iran. Writing this doesn't make me happy. But being open minded/inquisitive/rational is important for investors. Yes, we will get through this. ----------- Joseph Heller’s Catch-22 (1961) is a satirical novel set during World War II, centered on Captain Yossarian, a U.S. Army Air Forces bombardier stationed on a Mediterranean island. Core premise: Yossarian is desperate to avoid flying more combat missions because each mission brings a high probability of death. However, he is trapped in a bureaucratic system that continually raises the required number of missions and prevents him from being grounded. Tone and structure: Nonlinear, fragmented narrative Dark humor mixed with existential anxiety Characters often represent exaggerated institutional archetypes Core themes: Absurdity of war Dehumanizing bureaucracy Self-preservation vs duty The illusion of rational systems Why Heller Wrote the Book Heller drew heavily from his own experience as a WWII bombardier. But the novel is not simply autobiographical—it is a critique of modern institutions: Postwar disillusionment: After WWII, many writers questioned whether large organizations (military, corporate, government) were rational or fundamentally absurd. Cold War context: The rise of nuclear risk and massive bureaucracies heightened fears of systems beyond individual control. Satirical intent: Heller wanted to expose how rules designed to appear logical can produce irrational and harmful outcomes. In essence, Catch-22 is less about WWII specifically and more about how systems trap individuals through internally consistent—but insane—logic. Circular Logic (“Catch-22”) — The Central Device The term “Catch-22” itself refers to a self-reinforcing, no-win rule. The most famous example: A pilot can be grounded if he is insane. But if he requests to be grounded, that proves he is sane (because only a sane person would fear death). Therefore, he must continue flying. Structure of the logic: Rule A: Insane people don’t have to fly missions. Rule B: You must request evaluation to be declared insane. Rule Wanting to avoid danger is rational → proves sanity. Conclusion: No one qualifies as insane → everyone must fly. This is circular and self-sealing: The rule uses its own outcome as proof of its validity. There is no external criterion to break the loop. Broader Use of Circular Logic in the Novel Heller generalizes this pattern across the system: Mission quotas: The number of required missions keeps increasing, making completion impossible in practice. Authority justification: Officers make arbitrary decisions but justify them using the same rules they control. Moral inversion: Actions that are clearly irrational (risking lives unnecessarily) are framed as duty or patriotism. Bottom Line Catch-22 is a system-level critique: Heller shows that institutions can become logically consistent yet functionally insane, trapping individuals in loops where: Compliance is mandatory Escape is impossible Logic itself becomes the mechanism of control The phrase “Catch-22” has since entered common language to describe exactly this kind of closed-loop, self-validating constraint. Edited March 31 by Viking
Viking Posted March 31 Posted March 31 29 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Yup. And the other side of that is that you can’t even bother attempting to be a decent friend when you’re a few years away from ceasing to exist and no longer in charge of the “firm”. Folks got different life priorities I guess. I think we have incomplete information. One additional piece of information we do have: Gates marriage blew up. Why? Speculation: Bill's association with Epstein, leading to trust issues for Melinda. Doesn't appear to be a loyalty thing to me. I'm with Buffett on this one.
rogermunibond Posted March 31 Posted March 31 @Viking other signals besides Truth Social. Pakistan and China foreign ministers meeting in Beijing. Iran saying in order to negotiate it needs guarantees against attacks etc. Iran War ending without a US negotiated disposition for SoH seems more and more likely.
Gregmal Posted March 31 Posted March 31 9 minutes ago, Viking said: I think we have incomplete information. One additional piece of information we do have: Gates marriage blew up. Why? Speculation: Bill's association with Epstein, leading to trust issues for Melinda. Doesn't appear to be a loyalty thing to me. I'm with Buffett on this one. I think it’s pretty clear why Melinda ditched Bill lol. Most women if cheated on that much, in such a humiliating way would. Buffetts friendship with Gates is different. I mean there is that age old saying. Something about bros before hos… I’ve known of plenty of couples whom broke up over infidelity. I don’t think I’ve ever heard of a dude cutting off his buddy over having a girlfriend.
Viking Posted March 31 Posted March 31 10 minutes ago, rogermunibond said: @Viking other signals besides Truth Social. Pakistan and China foreign ministers meeting in Beijing. Iran saying in order to negotiate it needs guarantees against attacks etc. Iran War ending without a US negotiated disposition for SoH seems more and more likely. We all want to see the war end. An end to the stalemate would be good news (I think). As a reminder, below is a list of what Iran wants. At some point, Iran will want the US/Israeli's to sign on the dotted one. Lot's of work yet to be done. ----------- Iran’s Core Demands (as of late March 2026) Iran has put forward a multi-point ceasefire framework. The key elements are: 1) Immediate end to military attacks A full halt to U.S./Israeli strikes, including airstrikes and targeted assassinations Iran frames this as ending “aggression” 2) Binding guarantees the war will not resume Iran wants credible, enforceable assurances (not just a ceasefire) This is critical because Iran does not trust temporary agreements based on past experience 3) Financial compensation (reparations) Payment for: Infrastructure damage Civilian losses This is a non-trivial sticking point—rare in modern ceasefire deals 4) No further regime-change efforts or interference Implicit but central: End assassination campaigns End attempts to destabilize the Iranian government This directly counters stated U.S./Israeli objectives of regime change 5) Maintain strategic control (especially Strait of Hormuz) Iran has refused to concede control or access terms over the Strait of Hormuz This is a major leverage point given its importance to global oil flows 6) Broader regional inclusion (in some proposals) Iran has pushed for: Inclusion of Lebanon / regional theaters in any ceasefire Reflects that the war is not confined to Iran alone The Core Conflict: Why a Deal Is Difficult The gap between Iran and the U.S./Israel is structural, not tactical: U.S./Israel demands (simplified) End uranium enrichment Dismantle nuclear program Restrict missile capabilities Cut support to regional allies Iran’s position Willing to stop fighting, but: Not willing to capitulate strategically Not willing to give up deterrence (nuclear/missiles/influence) Bottom Line Iran’s demands can be reduced to three strategic objectives: Stop the war without surrendering power Lock in long-term security guarantees Preserve geopolitical leverage (especially energy chokepoints) That is why negotiations are stalled: The U.S. is pushing for structural concessions Iran is pushing for security and sovereignty preservation
Gregmal Posted March 31 Posted March 31 24 minutes ago, Libs said: Buffett is a hero to me in so many ways.....but like all humans, he's complicated and flawed. It does seem like he will turn on someone quickly. It always bothered me that he told Alice Schroeder, who he hand-picked to write his biography, to write it all, even the hard truths- and then immediately cold-shouldered her after she did exactly that. I think we have an unhealthy desire for our heroes to be perfect. Yup. 100%. I also think we have a tendency to choose adjectives subjectively. Many I’ve these Buffett behaviors could very easily fall into the category of narcissistic. I was always way more of a Munger fan. Charlie had a great sense of humor and seemed to have a better breadth of personality/grasp on life. Warren has way too many examples of being petty and egotistical. It just gets sold way better than most as some sort of virtue.
John Hjorth Posted March 31 Posted March 31 35 minutes ago, Gregmal said: I don’t think I’ve ever heard of a dude cutting off his buddy over having a girlfriend. Naturally, you don't know me as such, but I've learned from actual experience that to distance one self from both hubby and wifey, when something such is happening, is the only way to avoid getting your own personal sphere infected. The price to carry the rest of your life is the eternal burden of such disappointment, happening twice at once. Especially the burden of cutting the ties to the one who is cheated upon. Nothing else has worked better, If one is close to both. Still a totally downer, when it has happened. Still better than being accused of 'knowing, saying nothing' to the one cheated upon. Just absolutely dreadful Catch 22- it should be downgraded to Catch 21!.
Sweet Posted March 31 Posted March 31 The was an article about Gates and Buffett’s relationship quite a while ago, about how it had soured a bit, this was before the Epstein / STD stuff. https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-warren-buffett-friendship-history-fallout
changegonnacome Posted March 31 Posted March 31 (edited) 1 hour ago, Viking said: Iran will open the straight when they get agreement on their war demands. I don't think that is a crazy thing to say. What else would you expect them to do (if you were in their shoes)? It shouldn't be a complicated thing for people to understand. Obviously, the US has figured out they can't open the straight. That's why they are desperate to pull out before it really gets bad (the physical shortages). If the US can't open the straight - and they have the greatest military in the world - why do we think the rest of the world can? What needs to happen? Let me say it again: Iran has already told you what needs to happen. Listen, I am not a fan of the regime in Iran. Writing this doesn't make me happy. But being open minded/inquisitive/rational is important for investors. Yes, we will get through this. Iran understands that agreements here are worthless...lets be serious here...they need a durable deterrent to underpin the regime post-cessation of the conflict, an agreement I'm afraid based on all parties involved is just a piece of paper. I mean do you trust Iran's promises? Trump's promises are worthless & Netanyahu's never let agreements get in his way No stakeholder here is constrained by paper....its the law of the jungle here once the bombing stops and whats effective in the jungle is deterrents, not pieces of paper....so Iran has put their SOH deterrent into service to raise the costs of continuing to attack it, they made it a compellent here (as per Shilling theory*) and it has coercive power but Iran pushes it too far at their peril, if the economic pain inflicted rises enough a coalition of the willing will form to open the straits and once that occurs that same coalition will stay to permanently police the straits...which would completely change the security architecture of the region. If this occurs, Iran is truly toast. Agreements cant deter or give Iran time to breath......returning the SOH back to full navigation can and retaining it as deterrent is the best shot they have. If Iran is acting rationally, and thats a big if, the correct strategy it to take their beating and return the SOH to being a deterrent to future attacks in the not too distant - as I said there can be an element of theatre here where CENTCOM runs out of targets, Iran in 'return' opens the Straits for a pause in bombings. *from Thomas Schelling's "Arms and Influence" (1966). Deterrence is threatening to punish someone if they act — it's passive, cheap, and can be maintained indefinitely because it never has to be used. Compellence is using force to make someone change what they're currently doing — it's active, expensive, and degrades over time because it requires ongoing pressure and provokes resistance. The critical insight is that deterrence gets stronger the longer it remains unused, while compellence gets weaker the longer it's applied Edited March 31 by changegonnacome
John Hjorth Posted March 31 Posted March 31 1 hour ago, Libs said: Buffett is a hero to me in so many ways.....but like all humans, he's complicated and flawed. It does seem like he will turn on someone quickly. It always bothered me that he told Alice Schroeder, who he hand-picked to write his biography, to write it all, even the hard truths- and then immediately cold-shouldered her after she did exactly that. I think we have an unhealthy desire for our heroes to be perfect. Very well said, @Libs, Warren Buffett isen't exactly a hero in that regard himself. And yet he has preached 'integrity' the most of his life. Ahh-hemm! I'm personally never going to finish reading the whole 'Snowball'. I simply can't take it.
Parsad Posted March 31 Posted March 31 2 hours ago, Gregmal said: Idk, but again this kinda highlights how shitty Buffetts personal relationships are. I mean back out of the hysterics and headlines. Buffett and Gates were definitely long time buddies. Besties is the word some use. If I had an extensive relationship with someone, especially a friend of many decades, and something serious happened or came out, or whatever; let alone what occurred with Gates which doesn’t even indicate he did anything illegal…I’d at least reach out and maybe offer to hear their side of things. Buffett? Discards that friend with the callousness of trading a stock lmfao. Definitely some autism in there. Definitely more concern for money and business reputation. You can ask Gates. You can ask his kids. His wives…. That's probably somewhat true. I disagreed with Buffett's reaction to David Sokol and the whole Lubriderm thing. But you know what they say...if you don't stand for something, you stand for nothing! Cheers!
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