Viking Posted March 19 Posted March 19 (edited) One of the interesting things is closing the Straight of Hormaz is a one-time event for Iran. They only get to play this card once. And that is because every Gulf country will be implementing a back up plan once the current conflict ends (pipelines etc). The fact that virtually no one has a back up plan tells you something about what participants thought the likelihood of this event was in the first place. Now they have new information. My point is Iran has to get everything they want before opening up the Straight of Hormuz. Because they will never have this much leverage over the world/region ever again. It really is an interesting situation. Edited March 19 by Viking
John Hjorth Posted March 19 Posted March 19 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Viking said: The short answer is we do not have enough information today… what is happening has never happened before. We may learn prospectively that it was a big nothing burger. Of that is was a big deal. Or something in between. What happened in the 1970’s was unthinkable when it happened. As a result, it was probably underestimated - especially in the beginning - in terms of its ultimate impact of the economy, inflation, interest rates and financial markets (not to mention geopolitics). I have no idea how the current situation plays out. It probably isn’t a big deal. But the chances it might be a big deal are increasing - the longer it lasts and if it keeps escalating. I still remember the first oil crisis, quite clearly. It's basically the same happening now, just in a much more violent version. Sheik Yamani back then simply just ordered some oil valves shut, to teach the Western World a lesson. We had 'car free sundays', one could play on the high way if inclined, and in Danish classes in elementary school we were asked to write essays about 'how to demonstrate societal attitude', taking cold baths, letting the car stand every day, taking the bicycle to work instead every day to work, and all such stuff, so there were enough oil to keep Danish industrial companies running. Edited March 19 by John Hjorth
Spooky Posted March 19 Posted March 19 3 minutes ago, Viking said: One of the interesting things is closing the Straight of Hormaz is a one-time event for Iran. They only get to play this card once. And that is because every Gulf country will be implementing a back up plan once the current conflict ends (pipelines etc). The fact that virtually no one has a back up plan tells you something about what participants thought the likelihood of this event was in the first place. Now they have new information. My point is Iran has to get everything they want before opening up the Straight of Hormuz. Because they will never have this much leverage over the world/region ever again. It really is an interesting situation. They also have the ability to threaten oil & gas infrastructure in the region with drones etc. I'm not really sure how this will play out, odds of regime change through bombing alone are low. If the regime survives in some capacity they can continue to cause some havoc on the global economy given how important the region is.
Hektor Posted March 19 Posted March 19 7 minutes ago, Viking said: One of the interesting things is closing the Straight of Hormaz is a one-time event for Iran. They only get to play this card once. And that is because every Gulf country will be implementing a back up plan once the current conflict ends (pipelines etc). The fact that virtually no one has a back up plan tells you something about what participants thought the likelihood of this event was in the first place. Now they have new information. My point is Iran has to get everything they want before opening up the Straight of Hormuz. Because they will never have this much leverage over the world/region ever again. It really is an interesting situation. I guess, IF Iran implements a Hormuz blockade, a disruption in the Red Sea must also be assumed.
Viking Posted March 19 Posted March 19 (edited) Another interesting angle is the US. Gulf countries partnered with the US because they felt it would provide security - who would dare attack them? What they learned is the US doesn’t give a shit about them. Trump said only 1% of US energy needs come from the Gulf region - the current excursion is a big nothing burger for the US economy. My guess is - much like the rest of the world - the Gulf region will be putting their big boy pants on after the war and taking more control of their security. This probably also means finding a more reliable long term partner - one that is more aligned with their interests. Can anyone say China? The tectonics of the geopolitical world are shifting. PS: The US is not ‘winning.’ China and Russia? Big-time winners from what is going on in the Gulf. For these 2 countries, Trump is the gift that keeps on giving - and my guess is Trump is not done giving by a long shot. He is looking more and more like a cancer - easy to miss in the short run but eventually devastating in the long run. Edited March 19 by Viking
Maverick47 Posted March 19 Posted March 19 Just now, Viking said: The tectonics of the geopolitical world are shifting. (PS: The US is not ‘winning.’) Agreed. While he will never admit it due to his malignant narcissistic personality disorder, POTUS is being taught a hard lesson between transactional tactics and strategy. He thinks the former is all he needs to be concerned about, and clearly lacks the ability to consider second and third order effects of his actions.
Parsad Posted March 19 Posted March 19 1 hour ago, Viking said: Financial markets look a little like they did back in Jan/Feb of 2020. In North America we knew Covid was coming - and countries like China shut down their economies. How did financial markets in North America respond? Crickets. Well for a couple of months anyways. And this makes sense - who had seen Covid before? Fast forward to today. Of course the situation today is completely different. But it is the same in one important respect… we have never seen before what is happening today (war in middle east, closure of straight of Hormuz, energy infrastructure being shuttered/destroyed). Covid was a massive demand shock. This is a massive supply shock. This could be a big nothing burger - financial markets could well be right (that is what is priced in today). Like when Covid hit, I am not so sure… Not a nothing burger...but I think it's a pendulum like the pandemic. I had a ton of cash in my trading account three weeks ago...I'm 90% invested again. I can easily see a 20-40% gain in the next 6-12 months...especially if there is any sort of negotiations or cease-fire. The stuff I bought are all at very nice discounts...could go cheaper, so I will keep selling and buying cheaper if necessary...but I think the bulk of the fear is in the markets. There will probably be more longer term pain as input costs may increase into the Fall/Christmas/New Year, but it should be offset by any drop in oil prices as the war/whatever settles and people's memories get used to it. Cheers!
Viking Posted March 19 Posted March 19 4 minutes ago, Maverick47 said: Agreed. While he will never admit it due to his malignant narcissistic personality disorder, POTUS is being taught a hard lesson between transactional tactics and strategy. He thinks the former is all he needs to be concerned about, and clearly lacks the ability to consider second and third order effects of his actions. I don’t think Trump is going to learn anything. Some in the US will. But I don’t think it probably matters. It is crazy times. Look how easy it was for Trump to do what he just did. And the impact is is having on the rest of the world (not the US). He is 18 months into his term. We all still have 2.5 years to go.
Viking Posted March 19 Posted March 19 2 minutes ago, Parsad said: Not a nothing burger...but I think it's a pendulum like the pandemic. I had a ton of cash in my trading account three weeks ago...I'm 90% invested again. I can easily see a 20-40% gain in the next 6-12 months...especially if there is any sort of cease-fire, negotiations or cease-fire. The stuff I bought are all at very nice discounts...could go cheaper, so I will keep selling and buying cheaper if necessary...but I think the bulk of the fear is in the markets. There will probably be more longer term pain as input costs may increase into the Fall/Christmas/New Year, but it should be offset by any drop in oil prices as the war/whatever settles and people's memories get used to it. Cheers! Well said. Volatility = opportunity. Great volatility = great opportunity. The key is to not get so bent out of shape that you miss the opportunity. For interest sake, what sectors are you seeing the greatest opportunities right now? (I.e. 20 to 40% gain in next 6-12 months.) my guess is that is not market averages (off about 6 to 8% from all-time highs).
Parsad Posted March 19 Posted March 19 21 minutes ago, Viking said: One of the interesting things is closing the Straight of Hormaz is a one-time event for Iran. They only get to play this card once. And that is because every Gulf country will be implementing a back up plan once the current conflict ends (pipelines etc). The fact that virtually no one has a back up plan tells you something about what participants thought the likelihood of this event was in the first place. Now they have new information. My point is Iran has to get everything they want before opening up the Straight of Hormuz. Because they will never have this much leverage over the world/region ever again. It really is an interesting situation. While closing the Strait is significant, there are differences that will probably have less of an effect than in the 70's. Canada has the oil sands and a ton of gas available, the U.S. was able to succeed with fracking and shale oil, and you have other sources that have become available to the U.S. like Venezuela. So prices may rise, but supply is actually better this time for the U.S. I don't see shortages on this side of the Atlantic. But input prices for businesses and consumer costs are definitely higher. It will be interesting to see how they handle short-term and long-term effects. I don't think it will be anywhere near as bad as the 70's for the U.S. but other parts of the world might not be as lucky. Cheers!
Parsad Posted March 19 Posted March 19 1 minute ago, Viking said: Well said. Volatility = opportunity. Great volatility = great opportunity. The key is to not get so bent out of shape that you miss the opportunity. For interest sake, what sectors are you seeing the greatest opportunities right now? (I.e. 20 to 40% gain in next 6-12 months.) my guess is that is not market averages (off about 6 to 8% from all-time highs). Insurance, restaurants, tech and software! Cheers!
Sweet Posted March 19 Posted March 19 (edited) 30 minutes ago, Viking said: One of the interesting things is closing the Straight of Hormaz is a one-time event for Iran. They only get to play this card once. And that is because every Gulf country will be implementing a back up plan once the current conflict ends (pipelines etc). The fact that virtually no one has a back up plan tells you something about what participants thought the likelihood of this event was in the first place. Now they have new information. My point is Iran has to get everything they want before opening up the Straight of Hormuz. Because they will never have this much leverage over the world/region ever again. It really is an interesting situation. Saudis do in fact have backups, they have pipes that allow them to load oil into tankers in the Red Sea. It’s just not enough backup. UAE also has one that allows them to bypass the straight. Edited March 19 by Sweet
Viking Posted March 19 Posted March 19 1 minute ago, Parsad said: While closing the Strait is significant, there are differences that will probably have less of an effect than in the 70's. Canada has the oil sands and a ton of gas available, the U.S. was able to succeed with fracking and shale oil, and you have other sources that have become available to the U.S. like Venezuela. So prices may rise, but supply is actually better this time for the U.S. I don't see shortages on this side of the Atlantic. But input prices for businesses and consumer costs are definitely higher. It will be interesting to see how they handle short-term and long-term effects. I don't think it will be anywhere near as bad as the 70's for the U.S. but other parts of the world might not be as lucky. Cheers! Agreed. The impact of this will be very asymmetrical depending on where you live. Europe looks screwed. Among other things, they need to get their LNG filled before the next winter.
dealraker Posted March 19 Posted March 19 6 minutes ago, Viking said: Agreed. The impact of this will be very asymmetrical depending on where you live. Europe looks screwed. Among other things, they need to get their LNG filled before the next winter. I think the issue is that to avoid dealing with outcomes which are never as clear cut as anyone responsible wants to believe, that Trump continually is going to up the ante. It gains him the media domination/attention he needs and craves and it allows him to avoid a media focused on the downsides or consequences of what he's already "accomplished" or maybe better said afflicted on us and others.
Parsad Posted March 19 Posted March 19 4 minutes ago, dealraker said: I think the issue is that to avoid dealing with outcomes which are never as clear cut as anyone responsible wants to believe, that Trump continually is going to up the ante. It gains him the media domination/attention he needs and craves and it allows him to avoid a media focused on the downsides or consequences of what he's already "accomplished" or maybe better said afflicted on us and others. The fact that what he does is so chaotic and he usually has to find a way out, makes these opportunities more digestible and recurring. If you took advantage of every "crisis" he's created in the last year or the 4 previous years, you would have done very well in the stock market. But if you froze and didn't act because you thought he was going to blow up the world...you missed multiple opportunities. His initial actions may be unknown, but the result is usually more quantifiable and predictable. And usually things remain in a mess, while he moves on to the next "crisis" and memories fade on the previous one. Cheers!
Gregmal Posted March 19 Posted March 19 8 minutes ago, Parsad said: If you took advantage of every "crisis" he's created in the last year or the 4 previous years, you would have done very well in the stock market. But if you froze and didn't act because you thought he was going to blow up the world...you missed multiple opportunities. This is all you’ve needed to know and follow. Even beyond Trump, we had the “bank collapse” of 2023 which….never happened, “rate hike/follow the Fed” suckers “bear market” of 2022, etc. It seems every year we get these; Trumps are amplified, but the gist of what you wrote is soooo on point. Just STFU and stay cool, and buy stuff when others are boasting about how prudent it is to panic. Happy hour time!
dealraker Posted March 19 Posted March 19 (edited) 37 minutes ago, Parsad said: The fact that what he does is so chaotic and he usually has to find a way out, makes these opportunities more digestible and recurring. If you took advantage of every "crisis" he's created in the last year or the 4 previous years, you would have done very well in the stock market. But if you froze and didn't act because you thought he was going to blow up the world...you missed multiple opportunities. His initial actions may be unknown, but the result is usually more quantifiable and predictable. And usually things remain in a mess, while he moves on to the next "crisis" and memories fade on the previous one. Cheers! As a neutral thought on Sanjeev's last paragraph, I increasingly find it nearly shocking how much we can, via our media, be focused on some event as if it is life threatening for all of us...and then this issue doesn't change one bit at all...and we get slung to an unrelated event. The old issue that was life threatening is abandoned, completely abandoned...and that is it, its just gone from sight. The new focus may seem equally threatening or just interesting or stimulating...or whatever. But the old focus and fear just dissipates into nothing. It isn't selling as well as the new-new thing, it isn't going to be the focus of the news. And that's why you do not invest based on these things. Edited March 19 by dealraker
cubsfan Posted March 19 Posted March 19 Gosh - sounds like the USA & Israel have lost the war! Iran is SO in control of their own destiny now that all their leaders are dead and militaries destroyed. All in under 3 weeks. You guys are hilarious!
Parsad Posted March 19 Posted March 19 25 minutes ago, Gregmal said: This is all you’ve needed to know and follow. Even beyond Trump, we had the “bank collapse” of 2023 which….never happened, “rate hike/follow the Fed” suckers “bear market” of 2022, etc. It seems every year we get these; Trumps are amplified, but the gist of what you wrote is soooo on point. Just STFU and stay cool, and buy stuff when others are boasting about how prudent it is to panic. Happy hour time! Why is the pool so empty on such a beautiful day? Are you in Cuba?! Cheers!
Parsad Posted March 19 Posted March 19 8 minutes ago, dealraker said: As a neutral thought on Sanjeev's last paragraph, I increasingly find it nearly shocking how much we can, via our media, be focused on some event as if it is life threatening for all of us...and then this issue doesn't change one bit at all...and we get slung to an unrelated event. The old issue that was life threatening is abandoned, completely abandoned...and that is it, its just gone from sight. The new focus may seem equally threatening or just interesting or stimulating...or whatever. But the old focus and fear just dissipates into nothing. It isn't selling, it isn't going to be the focus of news (that needs $ to work). And that's why you do not invest based on these things. It is very sad! Who is paying attention to Ukraine right now? No one gives two shits, because the media is covering Iran 24/7. ICE? What is ICE? Deficits, debt, Cuba in the dark and little food, Gaza...who fucking cares! The media (both sides) is incredibly culpable in this. Social media is just as culpable. We may or may not revisit...all depends on what sells the most advertising! Cheers!
cubsfan Posted March 19 Posted March 19 1 hour ago, Viking said: What they learned is the US doesn’t give a shit about them. Actually - the lesson that the USA has learned is how worthless and cowardly our "allies" are. But we do have Israel to make up for the chickens. I love the statement about Russia and China - sure - huge winners - so much so - that they DON'T dare interfere in this ass kicking - especially after all their anti-aircraft/missle defenses Iran purchased from them turned out to be Swiss Cheese. When Iran has allies like Russia and China - your future is assured destruction - just like Venezuela and Cuba are seeing. Delusional.
Parsad Posted March 19 Posted March 19 11 minutes ago, cubsfan said: Gosh - sounds like the USA & Israel have lost the war! Iran is SO in control of their own destiny now that all their leaders are dead and militaries destroyed. All in under 3 weeks. You guys are hilarious! And in Lalaland, Cubs keeps ignoring objectivity for a gallon of kool-aid! Cheers!
cubsfan Posted March 19 Posted March 19 2 minutes ago, Parsad said: And in Lalaland, Cubs keeps ignoring objectivity for a gallon of kool-aid! Cheers! According to Viking - The War is Over! Russia and China are coming to Iran's rescue! Baghdad Bob is alive and well after all on CoBF. Drink up!
Parsad Posted March 19 Posted March 19 Too soon?! What a jackass! Trump hit with criticism after tasteless Japan jokes flop The man has no inner dialogue. Cheers!
Gregmal Posted March 19 Posted March 19 12 minutes ago, Parsad said: Why is the pool so empty on such a beautiful day? Are you in Cuba?! Cheers! It’s what they call “offseason”. And a big reason we moved. Peak season is May-August. 3 hour waits for restaurants, golf needs to be booked 30+ days in advance, any sorta activities are totally overcrowded. But mid March? Just walk on in.
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