Spekulatius Posted January 19 Posted January 19 (edited) 1 hour ago, Spooky said: Some more interesting facts from the FT: for all its military and economic strength, the US has one key weakness: it relies on others to pay its bills via large external deficits. Europe, on the other hand, is America’s largest lender: European countries own $8 trillion of US bonds and equities, almost twice as much as the rest of the world combined. European Nato countries own $2.8tn of US Treasuries alone, and with Canada it rises to $3.3tn. That’s more even than China’s official holdings, whose trove of Treasuries has long been considered a potent potential geopolitical weapon. It‘s a blunt weapon to own bonds and not likely to be drawn. What it does mean over the long run is that the USD loses reserve currency status over time. This means a weaker USD relative to other currencies. This will help fixing the trade deficit but also increase inflation. Edited January 19 by Spekulatius
Parsad Posted January 19 Posted January 19 6 minutes ago, cubsfan said: Ha - Like the Oscars, the Nobel Prize is available to the highest bidder. Next year look for Norway and Denmark to award it to themselves for their valiant defense of Ukraine. The FIFA Peace Prize is certainly available to the highest bidder! Cheers!
cubsfan Posted January 19 Posted January 19 (edited) 36 minutes ago, 73 Reds said: Immigration, US Taxes, Israel, Wokeness, Meritocracy, the Military just to name a few. I realize these mean little or nothing to you. Stunning achievements really - but the huge ones for Europe are the elimination of Iran nukes & terrorist proxies. It's really nice of the US/Israel opening up the shipping lanes of the Red Sea and save Europe/Asia trade. And thanks to Trump, they can have all the oil they like. Edited January 19 by cubsfan
cubsfan Posted January 19 Posted January 19 6 minutes ago, Parsad said: The FIFA Peace Prize is certainly available to the highest bidder! Cheers! Got me! I never understood this whole FIFA thing anyway.... a soccer union giving a world peace prize.... another "participation trophy" I guess!
Spooky Posted January 19 Posted January 19 1 hour ago, changegonnacome said: All this is true......but the brutal fact of the matter is the US remains the global reserve currency holder...treasuries and dollars permeate ever inch of the global financial system.......you might not want to hold $2.8trn dollars of treasuries.....but the question quickly becomes "ok you want to dump treasuries - what exactly are you going to hold instead of $2.8trn of treasures? The answer is there is no answer......you have to hold treasuries whether you like it or not cause thats just the way the world is.....$$ TINA. I agree. Europeans dumping US stocks and bonds en masse would hurt them. But taking action around the margins could still weaken the US.
John Hjorth Posted January 19 Posted January 19 22 minutes ago, whiskybravo said: Hello @John Hjorth This comes from Doomberg’s analysis of the BP/Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy. Doomberg’s figures are based on aggregating data from the Statistical Review. https://www.energyinst.org/exploring-energy/statistical-review From Eurostat: From Norway and UK alone oil imports ~20%. Non Norway/UK ~80%. For natural gas Norway/UK ~40% and non Norway/Uk 60%. So of the 38-5=33 exajoules hydrocarbon deficit the majority (~65-75%) is imported from other sources. They have chosen to become energy vassals. The ironic thing is that probably a lot of the foregone industrial production has probably been produced with coal in China. Perhaps it would have been cleaner to keep production in Europe. Hi @whiskybravo, Thank you for elaborating, that here quite meticously, from my perspective, in my personal opinion. It's really appreciated, for my part, actually! The fact here provided by you, I likely must admit, confirms me in that I likely personally suffer from both home bias and cognitive bias about Danish and European/EU energy import/export balances. Time to get updated on that, likely, and if possible, by country.
LC Posted January 20 Posted January 20 1 hour ago, 73 Reds said: and the only way to address them was to elect a disrupter like Trump (emphasis mine) This is how you know you've gone a little brainwashy
SharperDingaan Posted January 20 Posted January 20 (edited) 5 hours ago, changegonnacome said: All this is true......but the brutal fact of the matter is the US remains the global reserve currency holder...treasuries and dollars permeate ever inch of the global financial system.......you might not want to hold $2.8trn dollars of treasuries.....but the question quickly becomes "ok you want to dump treasuries - what exactly are you going to hold instead of $2.8trn of treasures? The answer is there is no answer......you have to hold treasuries whether you like it or not cause thats just the way the world is.....$$ TINA. Treasuries are just the cheapest instrument to hold, not the only one; hedged bullion, oil, copper, BTC, etc., are also good choices - just more expensive to use. All that the major T-Bill holders need do, is repeatedly and systematically reduce their debt roll-overs at the auctions, and force the fed to step in. Stress the fed enough in keeping rates down, will threaten reserve currency status, and drive trade to denominate in Euro, Yuan, and BRIC. USD drops like a brick SD Edited January 20 by SharperDingaan
Pauly Posted January 20 Posted January 20 1 hour ago, cubsfan said: Got me! I never understood this whole FIFA thing anyway.... a soccer union giving a world peace prize.... another "participation trophy" I guess! What's there to understand? It was invented last year because Trump threw a hissy fit about not getting a Nobel Peace Prize. The corrupt crew at FIFA thought they could ingratiate themselves by giving him a shiny object. But no, the people who shake their heads at this ridiculous nonsense are the ones with a problem (TDS).
cubsfan Posted January 20 Posted January 20 5 minutes ago, Pauly said: What's there to understand? It was invented last year because Trump threw a hissy fit about not getting a Nobel Peace Prize. The corrupt crew at FIFA thought they could ingratiate themselves by giving him a shiny object. But no, the people who shake their heads at this ridiculous nonsense are the ones with a problem (TDS). Yeah, I never pay any attention to soccer - but thanks for the details.
UK Posted January 20 Posted January 20 5 hours ago, whiskybravo said: The ironic thing is that probably a lot of the foregone industrial production has probably been produced with coal in China. Perhaps it would have been cleaner to keep production in Europe. I try not to speak much about this aloud, but what has happened and still continues to happen in EU with all the energy policy is just insane. I kind of begining to believe the idea, that perhaps all this green stuff is some kind of well thought long term Russian conspiracy against the west:). Also instead of better schools or you name it, we are subsidizing Chinese EVs! And I am kind of shocked of all that indiscriminate greenwashing in education institutions, try to talk to you teenager about all this:)))
LC Posted January 20 Posted January 20 Europe treats the environment the way Trump treats military/economics: completely selfishly, hence the poor outcomes. If only those critical of Europe's environmental decisions but approving Trump's military and trade decisions (and vice versa) would take a quick look in the mirror, we'd be better off!
UK Posted January 20 Posted January 20 (edited) 2 hours ago, LC said: Europe treats the environment the way Trump treats military/economics: completely selfishly, hence the poor outcomes. If only those critical of Europe's environmental decisions but approving Trump's military and trade decisions (and vice versa) would take a quick look in the mirror, we'd be better off! I think I fall in the category, but I do not get what you mean. Why wouldnt I approve or not individual things on their individual merits, instead of lumping them into some kind of weired group? I am close to 50/50 on Trump, just as was close to 50/50 on Biden or whoever was before:). Same with EU, many great things, but not all and some are just stupid. For the record, I think Trump is wrong on FED/USD, could solve Greenland differently and the initial composition of Board of Peace makes me sick!:( Edited January 20 by UK
John Hjorth Posted January 20 Posted January 20 https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115925766187001811 - - - o 0 o - - - https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115925848634299232 - - - o 0 o - - - https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115925888562624963 - - - o 0 o - - - - - - o 0 o - - - https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115926047595803521 - - - o 0 o - - - https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115926107400617491 - - - o 0 o - - - His learning curve for handling of text messages is steep! [I wonder if he's using Siri, or what?] Poor Keir Starmer - there is fired up for him in Davos!
Sweet Posted January 20 Posted January 20 The UK giving up the Chagos Island is monumentally stupid, not only did those who live on the island not want it, the UK government decided to pay to give it away… billions too. Trump was asked about the deal specifically last year, and he said he was fine with it lol https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/27/donald-trump-suggests-he-will-back-uk-in-chagos-islands-deal Hopefully this act of self-harm is reversed.
John Hjorth Posted January 20 Posted January 20 (edited) Jyllandsposten - jp.dk [January 20th 2026] : For subscribers - Business Jan 20, 2026 at 5:00 AM Trump's pursuit of Greenland could torpedo the US's weak point. Subttitle : In a crucial area, the United States' powerful military is dependent on Europe – and not least the Danish Maersk. The article, here translated from Danish to English : Quote Because even though the US has the world's most powerful navy, it lacks something that Europe has: a merchant navy. "A country needs a large merchant navy in a war scenario. It's essentially about transporting troops, ammunition, fuel and supplies. And the US needs it more than most because there's an ocean between them and any potential rival," explains Emma Salisbury. She is a senior fellow at the US think tank Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) and is also affiliated with the Royal Navy Strategic Studies Centre in the UK. The British expert in maritime security policy points out that in a war, enormous amounts of supplies must be transported to the front. If you imagine, for example, a future conflict with China, it will be far more than the navy's own ships can handle. And thus the US is faced with a problem if the country has in the meantime thrown NATO under the bus in the dispute over Greenland. “Infantry wins battles, logistics wins wars,” is a quote attributed to General John J. Pershing, who led the American forces in Europe during World War I. Therefore, it is also crucial to be able to use commercial ships. However, this requires having a merchant navy that can provide the ships. “The US merchant navy is strangely tiny,” says Emma Salisbury, explaining that this is partly due to protectionist legislation that has unintentionally hampered the country’s shipping industry for decades. But even during World War II, the lack of American ships was actually a problem. “So it has been a problem for a very, very long time. And that is why American strategic thinking has relied on other NATO allies to fill the gaps,” says Emma Salisbury, adding: “But if the Trump administration is practically detonating NATO, then it is clearly not something that can be counted on.” The Americans own just over 6 percent of the total merchant fleet of NATO countries, measured by the ships’ carrying capacity. That is less than Norway, and perhaps even more importantly, less than a sixth of China’s. NATOs largest merchant fleets : Quote “Even with NATO’s help, the US would have a big problem in a fight against China. So even if the Greenland conflict is resolved peacefully, they would have problems moving things across the Pacific,” says Emma Salisbury. “It will be worse without NATO. South Korea and Japan have decent merchant fleets, but China’s merchant fleet is enormous. They have around 9,500 ships, and they are almost all built to military specifications.” She therefore believes that the merchant fleets are a very real card that Denmark and Europe can play in a conflict with the US. "If you said that you would not allow the Americans to hire your ships, it would have a huge effect in relation to the US's strategic plans." Jyllands-Posten has contacted Maersk to hear how it views the fight for Greenland, but the shipping company has announced that it has no comments. If you look more closely at American military planning, Danish ships actually play a particularly large role. Since the 1990s, the US has entered into agreements with shipping companies to make specific ships available in the event of war or a national crisis situation, which can quickly supplement the fleet's ships. Out of the 60 ships in the so-called Maritime Security Programme, A.P. Møller-Mærsk owns 23, as it has, among other things, promised to deliver the majority of the container ships. French, German and Greek shipping companies together own 23 other ships, while only 14 ships are American-owned. The 60 ships are of course only a fraction of the capacity that would be needed in a major conflict, but as mentioned, the total merchant fleets are also much larger in Europe. Historically, Europe has neglected to highlight this contribution to NATO. Perhaps because it has also been economically lucrative to sit on world trade, and therefore there has been no reason to make the Americans aware of the imbalance. And from the American side, the dependence has probably also been underestimated, believes Emma Salisbury. “The mentality in NATO has been that it has been the Americans who have protected Europe. While there has been no focus on what the Europeans have brought to the table,” she says. This applies not least to Donald Trump and his top people, who sometimes seem to only see NATO as a burden. “The big worry is if NATO is torpedoed by the Trump administration without them thinking about these things,” says Emma Salisbury. The strategic advantage for the US of owning Greenland pales in comparison to the strategic disadvantage of weakening NATO, she believes: “The US has plenty of options to send more troops to Greenland if they just talk to the Danish government. So using that to torpedo NATO is just deeply, deeply stupid. And yes, frustrating.” - - - o 0 o - - - [Buzzing @WFF.] Edited January 20 by John Hjorth
John Hjorth Posted January 20 Posted January 20 (edited) Danish professor Lars Krull on LinkedIn : - - - o 0 o - - - Dumb academic? - Financial statements for his personal investment company and his holding company attached. [He is selfmade, not born with a silver or golden spoon up his butt.] Lars Krull AS - Annual Report 2024 - 20260120.pdf Lars Krull Holding AS - Annual Report 2024 - 20260120.pdf Edited January 20 by John Hjorth
John Hjorth Posted January 20 Posted January 20 1 hour ago, Sweet said: ... Trump was asked about the deal specifically last year, and he said he was fine with it lol ... HaHa! @Sweet Please remember he is a real expert in real estate deals involving negative carry!
WFF Posted January 20 Posted January 20 48 minutes ago, John Hjorth said: Jyllandsposten - jp.dk [January 20th 2026] : For subscribers - Business Jan 20, 2026 at 5:00 AM Trump's pursuit of Greenland could torpedo the US's weak point. Subttitle : In a crucial area, the United States' powerful military is dependent on Europe – and not least the Danish Maersk. The article, here translated from Danish to English : NATOs largest merchant fleets : - - - o 0 o - - - [Buzzing @WFF.] Thanks for this John! Now I hope there is a peaceful and all, but the above isn’t all that good for Europe. Yes they own the ships, but do they control it? Most ships are probably using another country’s flag when going around. Trump is pushing for national shipping building and pushing South Korea to build ships in the US. Trump recognizes gaps and is bridging. You can argue that the EU is plugging the gaps, but the pace at which stuff is happening between the two is not on the same level. Again, I hope for peace, I hope for more predictable outcomes, but like someone said… all we can do is lay back and enjoy the show. Be pragmatic on the outcomes and adjust our allocation accordingly.
John Hjorth Posted January 20 Posted January 20 (edited) 1 hour ago, WFF said: Thanks for this John! Now I hope there is a peaceful and all, but the above isn’t all that good for Europe. Yes they own the ships, but do they control it? Most ships are probably using another country’s flag when going around. Trump is pushing for national shipping building and pushing South Korea to build ships in the US. Trump recognizes gaps and is bridging. You can argue that the EU is plugging the gaps, but the pace at which stuff is happening between the two is not on the same level. Again, I hope for peace, I hope for more predictable outcomes, but like someone said… all we can do is lay back and enjoy the show. Be pragmatic on the outcomes and adjust our allocation accordingly. @You're welcome, @WFF , Furthermore, we also need to remember this, right : On 1/18/2026 at 2:41 PM, dealraker said: Hey man...we just fixed Iran and data centers are being built in space. Market is going up, all is well. What is going to happen today, when US markets open today Personally, I will suggest to buckle up, Daddy to concentrate and to be aware of flying kiddoes, teddybears and doggos, and enjoy the zero G experience from high altitude : Edited January 20 by John Hjorth
SharperDingaan Posted January 20 Posted January 20 (edited) Notice what is NOT in the news? Silence over the failure to strike on Iran. It hasn't happened for the last two weekends, despite all kinds of ordinance and Russian/Chinese defence equipment surged in place, and promises to Iranians that the US would support them. The opportunity has now passed, the regime remains in place, sanctioned oil continues to flow, as does the funding of sponsored terrorism. Silence over the falure in Venezuela. The escaped tankers have now been caught, the heavy oil cargo's 'redistributed', .... but don't look too close .... 'cause their ain't no NEW supply No new condensate flowing in to thin down the limited production, infrastructure too far gone to support any sustained near term increase, interim Russian/Chinese crews managing operations, US companies not going in until more changes are made. Hey bud ... same people are in place .... and where's my heavy! Silence over Epstein. Keep it off the news cycle to minimise the impact on the mid-term. All those women, negatively influencing all those men, negatively influencing senate control. All those small business owners, who can't get enough cheap labour anymore to run their operations ... Silence over Orange Boys future. Zero discussion as to what if Orange Boy looses the mid-terms ... and turns into Donald Duck ... quack, quack Couldn't carry the senate ..... Orange Boy is melting quickly, and tap dancing in a box. Same as a trapped short .... squeeze the orange to get at the juice, close the oven door for duck a la orange SD Edited January 20 by SharperDingaan
cubsfan Posted January 20 Posted January 20 1 minute ago, SharperDingaan said: Notice what is NOT in the news? Silence over the failure to strike on Iran. It hasn't happened for the last two weekends, despite all kinds of ordinance and Russian/Chinese defence equipment surged in place, and promises to Iranians that the US would support them. The opportunity has now passed, the regime remains in place, sanctioned oil continues to flow, as does the funding of sponsored terrorism. Silence over Venezuela. The escaped tankers have now been caught, the heavy oil cargo's 'redistributed', .... but don;t look too close .... 'cause their ain't no NEW supply No new condensate flowing in to thin down the limited production, infrastructure too far gone to support any sustained near term increase, US companies not going in for a while until more changes are made. Hey bud ... where's my heavy! Silence over Epstein. Keep it off the news cycle to minimise the impact on the mid-term. All those women, negatively influencing all those men, negatively influencing senate control. All those small business owners, who can't get enough cheap labour anymore to run their operations ... Silence over Orange Boys future. Zero discussion as to what if Orange Boy looses the mid-terms ... and turns into Donald Duck ... quack, quack Couldn't carry the senate ..... Orange Boy is melting quickly, and tap dancing in a box. Same as a trapped short .... squeeze the orange to get at the juice, close the oven door for duck a la orange SD Yup, once again SD nails it. While Comrade Carney plays nice with China, much happening below the radar in Trump-land. If economy rolls over - Republicans dead in the midterm. 50/50 in my book. Never boring.
SharperDingaan Posted January 20 Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, cubsfan said: If economy rolls over - Republicans dead in the midterm. 50/50 in my book. And as soon as he's a lame duck president ... with his thin skin, he'll be instantly renamed Donald Duck. Or 'Duck a la Orange' to the Europeans ... who also like to eat well SD
73 Reds Posted January 20 Posted January 20 1 minute ago, SharperDingaan said: And as soon as he's a lame duck president ... with his thin skin, he'll be instantly renamed Donald Duck. Or 'Duck a la Orange' to the Europeans ... who also like to eat well SD LOL, leave it to Europeans to fixate on a lame duck President.
Pelagic Posted January 20 Posted January 20 Thought this was interesting regarding shipping routes around Greenland. Ironically it would seem the Trump administration has adopted one of the IPCC's more extreme global warming scenarios to justify their need for Greenland.
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