Political Posts

[73 Reds]

6 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

I care about Epstein because our President was besties with a convicted pedophile and is now desperately doing anything he can to avoid the files coming out. Why?  Does that not concern you?

What is a "bestie";  Were you there?  Personally I couldn't give a shit.  Trump's been accused of raping a woman in a department store dressing room and having golden showers with Russian prostitutes.  I voted for him anyway because he was far superior to the other candidate who was truly pathetic.

[dwy000]

1 minute ago, 73 Reds said:

What is a "bestie";  Were you there?  Personally I couldn't give a shit.  Trump's been accused of raping a woman in a department store dressing room and having golden showers with Russian prostitutes.  I voted for him anyway because he was far superior to the other candidate who was truly pathetic.

When rape and pedophilia are not a red line for you youre in a cult.  

[73 Reds]

Just now, dwy000 said:

When rape and pedophilia are not a red line for you youre in a cult.  

You know nothing about me and the 70+ million people who are in the same "cult".  But as another poster pointed out, TDS brings out the worst in a lot of folks.

[cubsfan]

37 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

What is a "bestie";  Were you there?  Personally I couldn't give a shit.  Trump's been accused of raping a woman in a department store dressing room and having golden showers with Russian prostitutes.  I voted for him anyway because he was far superior to the other candidate who was truly pathetic.

 

What Trump has done to fix this country is beyond amazing. Both the RINOs and the Democrats look like total fools now. 

 

It's such a good thing to have a true populist in the White House after so many phonies that ended up part of the DC swamp. Restores my faith in leadership.

[kobesystem]

1. I love the fact that this is an international forum, but it's always worth noting that fact during discussions like these. If I lived in another country besides America, I could have legitimate reason to be opposed to Trump's success here, and that my color my comments accordingly.

 

2. That said, if I'm an American (which I am), I'm not sure why I would post negatively at a time like this. These trade deals are certainly positive for the United States, so I'm cheering them on.

 

3. Agreeing to trade frameworks or deals in principle is obviously the most important thing. To say that they're not signed or to complain that it's been "over 90 days" is sort of a disingenuous comment. The deals will get done, and they are pretty clearly very big deals.

 

4. It's worth noting that, according to ChatGPT, President Biden did "not sign any new full-blown trade deals" and signed "four agreements on specific sectors and plurilateral frameworks."

 

5. ChatGPT counts five deals already during Trump's second term. For the United States, this is obviously a net positive. Trump flexed big, and although he came way down from the high tariffs he originally floated, he's now applied them at a significant but reasonable rate, opened up export markets for American products, and brought in additional foreign investment.

[Parsad]

5 hours ago, Gregmal said:

lol aaaaaand, they’re wrong again. The amazing predictive powers of the TDS crowd strike again!

 

You gloat as much as Trump!  Cocksucker!    I would have hated to play sports against you as a kid.

 

It's like Jake Paul knocking down all these old ex-athletes.  But he somehow keeps winning.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

4 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Just wait tho, we ll either get the “it’s not real” conspiracy theory stuff, or the Tommy Lee Jones, Men In Black, red memory flash penny thingy, where tomorrow they’ll swallow the next MSM fed talking point and draw these same type of forecasts, completely oblivious and unaware to the fact that their embarrassing batting average is like .155….

 

Hey Greg, the one thing I think you have to admit and be a bit worried about is that all of these deals now have minimum 10% tariff and most are in the 15-20% range.  China and Canada will be the big ones outside of the EU.

 

Manufacturers and retailers have said already that the first price increases will be felt in the 3rd quarter and probably another bump in the 4th quarter or 1st quarter 2026.  

 

With all of the tariffs hitting retail prices, and all of the stimulus in the BBB, it's almost certain that inflation is actually going to increase through the next year.  I said before that I thought inflation will hit once the tariffs are set...and it certainly looks like that. 

 

What do you think Trump can do to mitigate significant inflation...presently, Powell's resistance to lowering rates is the only thing preventing that, but that is short-lived as Powell will be gone next year?

 

Cheers!

[dwy000]

4 minutes ago, kobesystem said:

1. I love the fact that this is an international forum, but it's always worth noting that fact during discussions like these. If I lived in another country besides America, I could have legitimate reason to be opposed to Trump's success here, and that my color my comments accordingly.

 

2. That said, if I'm an American (which I am), I'm not sure why I would post negatively at a time like this. These trade deals are certainly positive for the United States, so I'm cheering them on.

 

3. Agreeing to trade frameworks or deals in principle is obviously the most important thing. To say that they're not signed or to complain that it's been "over 90 days" is sort of a disingenuous comment. The deals will get done, and they are pretty clearly very big deals.

 

4. It's worth noting that, according to ChatGPT, President Biden did "not sign any new full-blown trade deals" and signed "four agreements on specific sectors and plurilateral frameworks."

 

5. ChatGPT counts five deals already during Trump's second term. For the United States, this is obviously a net positive. Trump flexed big, and although he came way down from the high tariffs he originally floated, he's now applied them at a significant but reasonable rate, opened up export markets for American products, and brought in additional foreign investment.

For 2 and 3 - there are no trade deals.  None. There are frameworks and discussions but thats not the most important thing at all.  Actually signing a deal is.  Until then its just talk. Imagine being a small business (or big.business) trying to order goods and price your product when the tariffs seem to change weekly.  Thats why the end dates (90 days or Aug 1st) were important - because u knew youd have answers.  Instead there's no deals and even the August 1st got extended 90 days. 

 

4 is historic and not relevant today

 

For 5 obviously ChatGPT is counting announcements not signed deals. 

[Gregmal]

3 minutes ago, Parsad said:

What do you think Trump can do to mitigate significant inflation...presently, Powell's resistance to lowering rates is the only thing preventing that, but that is short-lived as Powell will be gone next year?

The only answer to the big fiscal problems is running inflation a little higher than normal. I don’t think the higher ups are oblivious to this and to a degree it’s engineered imo. All around it seems like a better alternative to austerity or large scale

tax hikes.
 

 

[Parsad]

8 minutes ago, kobesystem said:

1. I love the fact that this is an international forum, but it's always worth noting that fact during discussions like these. If I lived in another country besides America, I could have legitimate reason to be opposed to Trump's success here, and that my color my comments accordingly.

 

2. That said, if I'm an American (which I am), I'm not sure why I would post negatively at a time like this. These trade deals are certainly positive for the United States, so I'm cheering them on.

 

3. Agreeing to trade frameworks or deals in principle is obviously the most important thing. To say that they're not signed or to complain that it's been "over 90 days" is sort of a disingenuous comment. The deals will get done, and they are pretty clearly very big deals.

 

4. It's worth noting that, according to ChatGPT, President Biden did "not sign any new full-blown trade deals" and signed "four agreements on specific sectors and plurilateral frameworks."

 

5. ChatGPT counts five deals already during Trump's second term. For the United States, this is obviously a net positive. Trump flexed big, and although he came way down from the high tariffs he originally floated, he's now applied them at a significant but reasonable rate, opened up export markets for American products, and brought in additional foreign investment.

 

While the tariffs will fix the trade imbalance over time and provide Trump with revenues to offset tax cuts in the BBB, you have to remember that they will be paid 100% ultimately by U.S. consumers...not foreign producers or citizens.  This will certainly have an inflationary impact to Americans and probably much of the globe.  Hopefully, the tax cuts and savings in the BBB will offset reduced spending and saving by the tariffs, but we'll have to wait and see if it is net-net a positive. 

 

It certainly will drive more investment and manufacturing back into the U.S., but when unemployment is already near historical lows and consumers are strapped for cash, the investments and jobs impact on the economy with reduced workers and disposable income...hard to figure how the economy will react. 

 

Long-term it should be beneficial, but short-term it could be very inflationary and drive consumers to stop spending...think 1970's/early 1980's before the boom of the 80's and 90's.  But instead of an oil embargo, it would be global recession from tariffs driving up inflation and reducing spending.  Lower rates would only spur more inflation.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

4 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

The only answer to the big fiscal problems is running inflation a little higher than normal. I don’t think the higher ups are oblivious to this and to a degree it’s engineered imo. All around it seems like a better alternative to austerity or large scale

tax hikes.
 

 

 

I agree with that, but can they control it.  We're talking about massive tariffs when you look at it globally.  You already have seen price increases and product shrinkage over the last 4 years, but that may have just been the beginning.  Cheers!

[changegonnacome]

Got the skinny from my buddy in the EU - the commission's view and the willingness to take 15% today versus upping the stakes with retaliatory tariffs etc is very simple apparently.......

 

The view is that Trump has built his tariff house on shaky ground on a number of fronts.....and so better to let them collapse of their own accord than get down in the dirt with Trump for a fight on something so temporary and think strategically and long term re: a long run ally like the United States.

 

The 15% level has a shelf life they think of less than year and at worst perhaps 18 months.

 

The high leve take is this:

 

(1) the commission's view is that tariffs will be deemed illegal by no later than June 2026 by the US Supreme Court (all lower court indications are pointing in this direction apparently) 

 

(2) the commissions view is barring the tariffs being declared illegal by mid-2026 by the SC - inflation combined with the fallout from the BBB will see the house (& possibly even the Senate) flip Democratic....so what the courts don't stop, the Democratic congress will wrestle back these powers and declare whatever deals Trump has done without standing and re-assert their trade negotiation powers by appointing Congressional negotiating teams. 

 

The EU is happy to come to do press conference where they talk about  'understandings', 'frameworks, & 'agreements in principle' with Donald....15%,20%,25%....no matter.....they are taking a holistic approach cognizant of the NATO, Ukraine portfolios and long term EU-US relationships once Trump has departed (i.e. playing the long game)....time is on their side they believe, the law is on their side too....not to mention the political gravity of higher prices and the small matter of the US constitution....which is very clear trade powers....the man who just came of a golf course in Scotland today had no constitutional right to make a trade agreement (sorry trade understanding) with anyone today.....and Ursula Von Der Lyn and the EU knows it but happy to play footsie with him to have cordial relationship with the USA writ large for the next few months until this trade overreach is corrected by the courts or the political system.

 

He outlined a very interesting twist on this expectation - one which will be quite embarrassing if it comes to pass. European companies will now push as much price as the US consumer will bear to recoup the interim 15% tariff rate and protect margins - it will inevitably end up with US consumers paying more for EU items for the next 18 months......when the tariffs are deemed illegal however they will have a legal right to recoup the tariffs resulting in a EU corporate windfall.......US consumers that had paid the tariffs of course have no refund recourse....and so tariffs today will come back to EU companies as incremental margin on their historical US sales later (a one time wealth transfer from US consumer to EU corporates facilitated by DJT).

 

Edited July 28, 2025 by changegonnacome

[Spekulatius]

The trade deal looks like a win for Trump a loss the EU, There is some devil in the details , as there are exemptions form tariffs for aerospace products, chemicals . Also any final deal needs to be ratified by the majority of the countries. I am also not clear if the tariffs on steel and Aluminum products of 50% remain for imports from the EU also.

 

As for buying products from the US, that is done by the individual countries not the EU. I think the stock markets will be mildly bullish about this but most was already priced in.

[Castanza]

21 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

@Castanza A questions that has been haunting me ever since you posted this. Why did you not hire the Amish?

Familiarity with the company and work they do, project start time and shingle brand/color was the biggest factor as we had a baby in the way. I also had gutters put on but that Amish company didn’t do them but the company I used did so it was just simpler. I’ve hired the Amish to do a bunch of other worth though. Cabinet/vanity for bathroom and a pole barn build including the concrete slab. There is nobody better for custom cabinetry at 3/4 sometimes 1/2 the price of other shops. Unless you do it yourself. 

 

Some complain about the Amish because they undercut typical businesses on price. They do good quality work in a timely manner at a cheaper price. Their lifestyle allows them to work cheaper so it’s just an advantage they have…sounds like business to me….. They are always extremely willing to correct issues if any come up or go out if their way to work with their customer. Sometimes you have to be willing to go pick them up and bring them to your place for quotes, measurements etc. so it can be inconvenient for some.  Most of them have “handlers” for things like that though. 

[SharperDingaan]

Keep in mind that US products could easily be boycotted, as is currently the case with Tesla. Nobody buys your product, there is no point to exporting. The more expensive Porsche import also becoming a better status symbol. Not quite the intended outcome.

 

These are also just understandings, the detailed signed agreement that eventually follows could well be very different. Again, not quite the current spin.

 

SD

 

 

 

[cwericb]

Is the American public as stupid as their President thinks they are? 

 

Once again, just two days ago, the Chief U.S. Koolaid Dispenser disrespected the American people by announcing: 

 

                   "... if Canada doesn't reach a deal they will just have to pay the tariffs..." 

 

What? Wait... Really? What tariffs? WHO is going to pay them? 

 

Do US citizens really believe that other countries are paying Trump tariffs?  Are they still waiting for that big check from Mexico for the wall?

 

Talk about a cult. Enjoy the Koolaid folks, enjoy the Koolaid. 

[cubsfan]

Ah, yes, more doom & gloom predictions....the USA is going down!

[Gregmal]

lol yea, so dumb. Tariffs just make a specific companies product more expensive(penalizing the company, not the consuner). The “consumer” doesn’t pay anything they don’t want to. If a pound of chicken is $6 and I want it, I buy it. If Tysons prices rise $2/lb(not really that uncommon) I just buy a different brand. Same is true for everything else all the way up to cars. This is why the whinny babies keep missing everything. Boo hoo wah wah emotion!

Edited July 28, 2025 by Gregmal

[changegonnacome]

9 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

The trade deal looks like a win for Trump a loss the EU

 

Like lots of Trump wins (and this is one) they are never quite as great as the press release & PR event make them out to be.

 

He is fundamentally a showman that prioritizes optics over policy durability.

 

Counterparties understand the President's attention span is short, his core MAGA supporters attention span even shorter.

 

For example - I consider the foreign direct investment commitments from Japan and the EU to be red herrings....some combination of annual capitals flows already in place summed up over 10yrs with some aspirational incremental commitments that will never come to pass. These are, to put it mildly, simple big numbers designed to be passed around on truth social or twitter by Trumps supporters. Simplified tidbits, for simplified minds. Now dont get me wrong Joe Biden people did this to, every politician worth their salt does......but you can be certain in years to come they will be deconstructed by a journalist and be shown to have never happened or simply double counting of historical capital flows already in place between Japan/EU & USA.

 

Right now the lack of detail of course you could drive a bus through..........the big overarching question is will the 15% rate stick? Many including the EU itself apparently and the likes of Piper Sandler below are betting that they won't.

 

Trump’s trade deals are illegal, Piper Sandler warns

https://fortune.com/2025/07/25/trump-trade-deals-illegal-piper-sandler-tariffs-supreme-court/

 

A more interesting question is, if they do stick, whats the tariff incidence. The EU isn't China - the products we consume from the EU are not, in the main, commodities. They actually tend to the opposite of commodities. They tend to be products where the US consumer considers the EU product to be superior, where the higher price for the EU product is signaler of its superior quality (luxury goods etc.). The tariff incidence will be interesting to track.

 

Finally the EU is actually something of sole supplier for key patented life sciences products to the US. I'm not sure how slapping 15% on the below is a 'win' for US patients and insurers>

 

Wegovy/Ozempic (Demark/Germany)

Eliquis (best in class blood thinner) (Germany)

Botox (Ireland)

Prolia®/Xgeva® (netherlands)

Keytruda (cancer) ( netherlands)

Kyleena (best in class IUD, no alternatives) (Finland)

 

I guess the textbook would say that with no good substitutes & limited elasticity of demand the tariff incidence will fall heavily on the US healthcare system for the above.

 

Finally as mentioned a few times now if we take Trump at this word - that tariffs are a means by which US gets to reshore manufacturing to the United States.....and as I've covered a couple of times now re:EU where I can speak with some authority having seen many many analysis.........15% tariffs on products I listed above and many others.... is not the number that changes what the comparison spreadsheet says a company should do here.......sure at the margins & with 100% US expensing the math might change for a subset of a subset of manufactured products, business units......but trust me as regards US vs EU........15% is uncomfortably in the no mans land between not being enough to move manufacturing wholesale from the EU and being low enough and falling on products with no good US substitutes to fall heavily on US consumers as a sales tax.

 

 

I no nobody does details anymore in the realm of politics- everything is either a total win for Trump and total loss for his opponent or vice versa.

 

If this sticks and its a big if - its a win for Trump...but under the hood not quite as big.... US consumers are going to pay the majority of the tariffs here on lots and lots of EU products....and if the courts throw out these tariffs in 10 months time it will be a much ado about nothing.

[changegonnacome]

38 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

If a pound of chicken is $6 and I want it, I buy it. If Tysons prices rise $2/lb(not really that uncommon) I just buy a different brand

 

Your right of course....but sometimes, in lots of categories your not buying chicken..........and the EU, in lots of product categories, is not selling chicken either, they are selling best in class patented products where they are the sole supplier with low elasticity of demand and where the tariff incidence is obvious....a few below >

 

Eliquis (best in class blood thinner) (Germany)

Prolia®/Xgeva® (netherlands)

Keytruda (cancer) ( netherlands)

Kyleena (best in class IUD, no alternatives) (Finland)

 

Things are way more complicated that the democrat morons who say consumer will pay all these tariffs (not true)....and the MAGA morons who say no consumer is going pay these tariffs (not true).....the answer is in-between and complicated and nobody likes that of course because nobody does nuance anymore cause they’re too busy trying to own the libs or destroy MAGA.

 

Edited July 28, 2025 by changegonnacome

[cwericb]

37 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

lol yea, so dumb. Tariffs just make a specific companies product more expensive(penalizing the company, not the consuner). The “consumer” doesn’t pay anything they don’t want to. If a pound of chicken is $6 and I want it, I buy it. If Tysons prices rise $2/lb(not really that uncommon) I just buy a different brand. Same is true for everything else all the way up to cars. This is why the whinny babies keep missing everything. Boo hoo wah wah emotion!

 

American importers will be paying all these tariffs imposed on products imported from outside the US.

Those tariffs will be passed on to American consumers increasing those prices.

Then, retailers and wholesalers handling similar US produced products will close the price gap with imported products by raising prices on US products simply because they can make more money by being "competitive". Wait and watch.

[SharperDingaan]

The smarter sole source producers just stop supply, immediately raise US prices 25-30%, and kick back part of the windfall rake with Indian competitors; the US either pays up or suffers withdrawal, no different to a pusher squeezing the junkies hooked on the product.

 

It is also low risk. The US can threaten all it likes, but it is very unlikely that the US can domestically manufacture (patent theft) and replace the supply within the next 18 months (post mid-term elections). Particularly when those being stolen from, also throw as much sand into the machinery as they can 

 

Sure the deals make headlines .... but maybe they aren't quite what they seem. 

 

SD

Edited July 28, 2025 by SharperDingaan

[changegonnacome]

4 minutes ago, cwericb said:

Those tariffs will be passed on to American consumers increasing those prices.

Then, retailers and wholesalers handling similar US produced products will close the price gap with imported products by raising prices on US products simply because they can make more money by being "competitive". Wait and watch.

 

Not true - its all situational - every product is its own micro market...elasticity of demand, substitution effects, producer margins, market share aspirations.....how the tariff incidence is allocated is going to be very different for each product.

 

Tariffs are almost a perfect rorschach test for how partisan you are......if you belive it will be bourne completley by US consumers I can confidently tell you, you are LIB-tard......if you think the foreign company will pay it completley, I can confidently diagnosis you as having a serious case of MAGA.

[cwericb]

6 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Not true - its all situational - every product is its own micro market...elasticity of demand, substitution effects, producer margins, market share aspirations.....how the tariff incidence is allocated is going to be very different for each product.

 

Tariffs are almost a perfect rorschach test for how partisan you are......if you belive it will be bourne completley by US consumers I can confidently tell you, you are LIB-tard......if you think the foreign company will pay it completley, I can confidently diagnosis you as having a serious case of MAGA.

 

I am talking in general terms. But I guarantee that tariffs are going to A) cause price increases and B) create inflation for American consumers. 

[Gregmal]

12 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Not true - its all situational - every product is its own micro market...elasticity of demand, substitution effects, producer margins, market share aspirations.....how the tariff incidence is allocated is going to be very different for each product.

 

Tariffs are almost a perfect rorschach test for how partisan you are......if you belive it will be bourne completley by US consumers I can confidently tell you, you are LIB-tard......if you think the foreign company will pay it completley, I can confidently diagnosis you as having a serious case of MAGA.

Exactly, a side product of the tariffs is they back people into buying American made products, which has its own economic theory behind it. Another element is yes, in some cases, somewhat higher prices; the least painful trade off in the whole balancing act equation that is a whole lot more presentable and allowable than austerity or sweeping tax hikes. 
 

No perfect solutions, but for Americans? The most reasonable path suggested so far. For everyone else? Dunno. But still waiting on all these other countries to follow thru on all their “we won’t take it” flexing. Wasn’t Canada gonna shut down a pipeline or something?