Political Posts

[cubsfan]

9 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Funny thing is....I think Trump is completely innocent of any paedo/Epstein stuff.....what he is guilty of IMO is being thin skinned that he cant stand to have it confirmed with hard evidence that he = was very very tight buddies with Epstein in the 80's, 90 and early 200's......and to stop that non-crime but embarrassing detail coming out.....he is breaking a bunch of norms that will only accelerate the lost faith people have institutions......

 

norm one.....if this we're any other President he'd have appointed a special counsel on all this Epstein stuff the second he heard his name was in the files........which Trump did hear back in May from Pam Bondi.....

 

second norm.....as President you dont send your god damn personal criminal defense attorney down to Florida to speak with the principal witness in a case where there is even a sniff of criminality on your part in the past...

 

Could all be, which means it's a total sideshow while he proceeds with the task of righting all the BS from the last administration, where the damage was so significant.  You know infinitely more regarding the Epstein/Trump saga than I do.

It's all very interesting - I found your post about Trump fucking Epstein on the Florida property very interesting and kind of fun.

 

So keeps up posted on revelations that may crater Trump's Presidency and the MAGA movement.  

 

In the meantime, I'll watch the success of this historic Presidency, which is unprecedented.

[Gregmal]

Need to see if maybe Sanjeev can work on getting a community wide access portal to Bravo on Demand or maybe make the membership come with free gossip mag subs….would add a lot of value for these folks. 

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

Top Justice Department Official Visits Former Epstein Associate Ghislaine Maxwell

Lawyer for convicted Epstein confidante calls it a ‘productive’ day of questioning

https://www.wsj.com/us-news/law/top-justice-department-official-visits-former-epstein-associate-ghislaine-maxwell-0598e4c0

 

"Blanche earlier this week announced his plans to meet Maxwell. “For the first time, the Department of Justice is reaching out to Ghislaine Maxwell to ask: what do you know?” he wrote on X."

 

More accurately re-written.......Todd Blanche....Donald Trump's criminal defense attorney from his most recent New York case parachuted into the DOJ....but still fundamentally Donald Trump's criminal defense attorney......is spending two days with Ghilaine Maxwell trying to get a sense of what she might say and do to damage Trump when her last chance saloon appeal gets thrown out of the Supreme Court in a few weeks time.....where she has zero to lose and can go beast mode if she wishes......my guess....watch for a subtle shift in the narrative soon........to Maxwell having being "very badly treated" by Biden's DOJ, being unbelievably cooperative with Trump's DOJ, wanting to help in anyway she can the victims cause maybe she's kinda a victim of Epstein herself.....indeed if you think about it what Trump really needs Ghilaine to do next is get the 'Eye of Sauron' on to another man in the Epstein files.....Clinton, Prince Andrew....somebody the MAGA conspiracy theorists will tie themselves in knots with........it sure looks to me, for political expediency, they are also going to strongly hint to Maxwell that a pardon could come down the tracks in 3.5yrs.

 

 

It's like cops investigating cops without any sort of outside oversight.  This was to be expected.  Nothing will come of it!  Cheers!

[SharperDingaan]

14 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Funny thing is....I think Trump is completely innocent of any paedo/Epstein stuff.....what he is guilty of IMO is being thin skinned that he cant stand to have it confirmed with hard evidence that he = was very very tight buddies with Epstein in the 80's, 90 and early 200's......and to stop that non-crime but embarrassing detail coming out.....he is breaking a bunch of norms that will only accelerate the lost faith people have institutions......

 

norm one.....if this we're any other President he'd have appointed a special counsel on all this Epstein stuff the second he heard his name was in the files........which Trump did hear back in May from Pam Bondi.....

 

second norm.....as President you dont send your god damn personal criminal defense attorney down to Florida to speak with the principal witness in a case where there is even a sniff of criminality on your part in the past...

 

 

 

It's just evidence that those around Trump are starting to worry, as without control of both houses Trumps abilities are much more constrained. Melting ice-cube, melting faster than expected ?

 

SD

[Parsad]

42 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Nice. So we ve already launched into fullblown "if we dont get the info we need to get him, it's because of a conspiracy" mode. Hopefully one day they "get him", so you guys can have some peace.

 

No, not to get him.  There just won't be any information coming out probably about anyone.  If anything scandalous comes out about some Democratic senator or congressman, then as Epstein's best friend for 10 years, there would have to be something about Trump.  So better just to let it all go away without anyone getting in trouble.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

7 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Need to see if maybe Sanjeev can work on getting a community wide access portal to Bravo on Demand or maybe make the membership come with free gossip mag subs….would add a lot of value for these folks. 

 

Yes, I'm sure many of you would like more stuff like:

• "Michelle Obama is a man"
• "Obama was born in Kenya"
• "Biden used to run with Capone"
• "Hillary more evil than Putin"
• "Powell driving U.S. into a ditch and Trump cannot control him"
• "Guns don't kill people, people kill people"

And a whole host of other favorites!  Cheers!

[changegonnacome]

10 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

I found your post about Trump fucking Epstein on the Florida property very interesting and kind of fun.

Ah yes - kinda fun…total hearsay…and slightly embarrassed I bothered recounting it at all

 

i dunno I think something everybody can get behind is that United States with the abundant talent it has should be able to do better than the last three occupants of the White House for sure…I’d personally lob Obama in there myself (though I know he has his cultists)….and agree with the view expressed here that the Dems scorched earth approach to the candidacy of right leaning centrists in the GOP like Romney is in part to blame for the rise of the lunatic right 

[73 Reds]

1 minute ago, changegonnacome said:

Ah yes - kinda fun…total hearsay…and slightly embarrassed I bothered recounting it at all

 

i dunno I think something everybody can get behind is that United States with the abundant talent it has should be able to do better than the last three occupants of the White House for sure…I’d personally lob Obama in there myself (though I know he has his cultists)….and agree with the view expressed here that the Dems scorched earth approach to the candidacy of right leaning centrists in the GOP like Romney is in part to blame for the rise of the lunatic right 

If you separate personal baggage from policy, arguably Trump was exactly what the Country needed at exactly the right time.  We didn't need a "nice guy" or even one of strong moral character - especially to take on a corrupt democratic party.  If history is any guide, the "nicest, most moral" President we had in my lifetime (Jimmy Carter) proved to be one of the worst Presidents.  The job may not always be suitable for nice guys or even people who don't carry a lot of baggage and have been thoroughly battle-tested - even as the result of their own wrongdoings.  

[changegonnacome]

33 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

It's just evidence that those around Trump are starting to worry, as without control of both houses Trumps abilities are much more constrained. Melting ice-cube, melting faster than expected ?

 

SD

 

Yep - this is what I've been saying.....its not somehow like this Epstein stuff is going to have to seem him resign or thrown out or any of that other leftist lunatic stuff.....the reality......is simply that Trump's hold over the GOP wanes and he becomes yesterdays man much quicker than he would have otherwise.

 

The noisy minority on the right (the conspiracy wing of the coalition) breaking with Trump on this issue creates a permission structure for GOP Senators and Congressman to diverge from the President on other stuff.....the BBB is passed.....TCJA tax cuts we're extended, Trump served his purposes for the core tax cut retention agenda........

 

However the bill is laced with politically toxic material (medicaid cuts, deficit continue to explode etc.) alot of the cuts we're required as pay fors, for Trumps cockamamie no tax on tips and other populist nonsense that in there......GOP house and senate members know how toxic this stuff for next years Midterms....they know there are going to be constituents who will identify tariff driven price increases or domestic businesses not helped but severely hurt by tariffs in their district......

 

Midterms are going to be tough for folks trying to explain what got done in DC in H1 2025 (BBB + Tariffs)....BBB more or less maintained the status quo for most voters....you can characterize an extension of the TCJA as a cut....but that is the way polticts works....so no new voters gained here.....while hurting the new MAGA base (white non-college educated medicaid etc.)....there are no, in my opinion, incremental votes in what Trump has done this year.....quite the opposite....its bad politics what Trump has presided over....when GOP congress members come back (or dont come back) from the Midterms with a big fat loss on their hands they'll very quickly switch to we need to dump this guy Trump, he's a liability.

 

The Epstein stuff has brought that conversation forward by about 18 months.

[TwoCitiesCapital]

16 hours ago, JRM said:

am I the only one wondering how you could spend $2B+ on a remodel?  

 

I haven't seen the calcs or the cost inflation but I know that asbestos, lead, and environmental concerns added to. Pair that with the fact the buildings haven't been renovated since the 1930s and you probably have a lot of modernization going on with things like power/plumbing/outlets/HVAC/etc all with the additional expenses of maintaining the historic building. 

 

Would definitely be cheaper to tear down and rebuild, but that isn't what they're going to do with buildings they want preserved. 

 

Not that it's even of the same scale, but my condo building was renovated into condos in 2008. There was a rooftop fire in 11/2023 that destroyed the roof and my a portion of my unit underneath. It was multi-millions to repair/replace the rooftop and fix the damages in my unit and took them over 18 months to finish. And that was just the roof and a single unit with no lead/asbestos/environmental concerns, no re-plumbing/electrical work, little need for machinery like cranes, in a relatively newly renovated structure from 2008 in a state with significantly lower CoL/wages than D.C.

 

I can certainly see how these things can add up when doing an entire commercial building needing significantly more work, with significantly more red-tape surrounding its historical nature, significantly more expense related to asbestos/lead remediation, and encountering significantly more delays due to the scope. Not sure $2B is the right number, but also can't say I'm really surprised either. 

[gfp]

When any of us in the private sector renovate a qualifying historic commercial building, we receive almost 20% of the budget back as a tax credit from the Federal Government.  That is the "US taxpayer" subsidizing private businesspeople who don't need subsidizing - because someone at government / the national parks service decided that we want to greatly incentivize restoring and maintaining our historic architecture by handing out free money to multi millionaire/billionaire property developers.  

 

The last thing I care about is the Federal Reserve, with no taxpayer money (and their very own magical money computer to boot) going over budget on a historic renovation of multiple landmark buildings in DC during a period of significant inflation in construction.

 

Doesn't anybody think it's a little ironic that Trump is choosing to highlight significant cost inflation as his main avenue to exert pressure to lower rates?

[Gregmal]

2 minutes ago, gfp said:

Doesn't anybody think it's a little ironic that Trump is choosing to highlight significant cost inflation as his main avenue to exert pressure to lower rates?

I actually think it’s pretty cunning. Citing the past inflation Powell missed as the reason to potentially fire him now because he wants to hold his error against the country fighting inflation that doesn’t currently exist? Brilliant.
 

I mean look at all the hoops and bs we ve been subjected to the last several years. Any uptick in anything is cited as bad. Wage increases painted as bad. They ignore the steady downward movement in oil but scream inflation with every minor fluctuation upwards. Job gains are presented as bad news…they lied about tariffs and now tax cuts…what in the fuck is wrong with this group and specifically Jerry Powell for playing their game?

[SharperDingaan]

11 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I actually think it’s pretty cunning. Citing the past inflation Powell missed as the reason to potentially fire him now because he wants to hold his error against the country fighting inflation that doesn’t currently exist? Brilliant.

 

It's just more evidence that those around Trump are starting to worry. So many are pulling money and gold out of the US that the USD is devaluing (10%+ YTD), reserve currency status is being challenged, and debt is getting a lot harder to roll (why yields keep rising). Firing/replacing Powell immediately before restructuring the debt, diverts a lot of blame. 

 

Too many of the wrong people are also questioning whether the US actually has the gold claimed.

https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2025-06-27/why-central-banks-are-pulling-gold-us-and-why-it-started-germany

 

SD

[gfp]

24 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

reserve currency status is being challenged, and debt is getting a lot harder to roll (why yields keep rising).

 

Do you have a replacement in mind?  I don't see this happening in the real world.  

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said:

Firing/replacing Powell immediately before restructuring the debt, diverts a lot of blame. 

 

Trump (always) needs a fall guy - sure jawboning for lower rates might get lower rates but probably not.......but when it comes out next year that say the US grew 1.4% in 2025 under Trump......but 2.1% under Biden in 2024....I mean what can Trump say......Biden was senile he said and he grew the US economy at over 2%........if he was senile what does that make Trump?......you get the picture....."its all Jay Powell's fault, blah blah blah, it would been 3% growth if rates weren't so damn high, its the best economy the world has ever seen....in fact I know it would have been over 3% because very good business friends of mine told me it would be over 3% if it wasn't for these rates we have from too late Powell"

 

Trump is a big believer of getting your excuses in early and often.

 

Presidents growing the economy is very shaky science anyway....what I do know is that ever increasing annual fiscal deficits sure helped keep us up around the 2% level for in the period 2016-2025 (how could it not, the debt curve is beautifully sloping upwards)......and like any drug, maintenance requires ever increasing doses.....2016 to 2025 has been a nice period of ever increasing Government deficits & their mirror image which is corporate and consumer surpluses......the annual fiscal debt seems to have topped out at this 6.5% level....debt seems to be getting harder to flog......not much incrementally left on the big red button called 'juice the economy with more federal borrowing'

[SharperDingaan]

1 hour ago, gfp said:

 

Do you have a replacement in mind?  I don't see this happening in the real world.  

 

For practical purposes, any sycophant would do as the market reaction to a US debt restructuring would drown out everything. 9 months later, as a sop to those pleading the midterm necessity; fire the bum and replace with an adult. Very Trump modus operandi, and hence well within the realm of possibilities.

 

We just don't want to hear it; as this is the fed, and there is no way that anyone would be this crazy.

 

SD 

 

[changegonnacome]

Cracks widen in Japan and US’s interpretation of tariff trade deal

 

https://www.ft.com/content/c1183b13-9135-41f6-9206-7b52af66f0a5

"Japanese officials said there was no written agreement with Washington — and no legally binding one would be drawn up — after Trump administration officials claimed Tokyo would back investments in the US from which American taxpayers would reap nine-tenths of the profits."

 

"Officials familiar with the US-Japan talks said the deal was pulled together in a slapdash manner during a 70-minute meeting between Japan’s chief negotiator Ryosei Akazawa and Trump on Tuesday."

 

When a trade deal isnt a deal at all- its a just a bunch of idiots shit talking.

 

Trump is quite something.....freestyling & improvising a global trade deal in 70 minutes....the man is a genius......the biggest deal in human history I believe he said....small problem nothing is signed and none of the details have been worked out.

[gfp]

No way - I saw all the details in sharpie on his desk

 

[gfp]

12 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

For practical purposes, any sycophant would do as the market reaction to a US debt restructuring would drown out everything. 9 months later, as a sop to those pleading the midterm necessity; fire the bum and replace with an adult. Very Trump modus operandi, and hence well within the realm of possibilities.

 

We just don't want to hear it; as this is the fed, and there is no way that anyone would be this crazy.

 

SD 

 

 

Yeah, I meant do you have a replacement for the "reserve currency" in mind.  

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Trump (always) needs a fall guy - sure jawboning for lower rates might get lower rates but probably not.......but when it comes out next year that say the US grew 1.4% in 2025 under Trump......but 2.1% under Biden in 2024....I mean what can Trump say......Biden was senile he said and he grew the US economy at over 2%........if he was senile what does that make Trump?......you get the picture....."its all Jay Powell's fault, blah blah blah, it would been 3% growth if rates weren't so damn high, its the best economy the world has ever seen....in fact I know it would have been over 3% because very good business friends of mine told me it would be over 3% if it wasn't for these rates we have from too late Powell"

 

Trump is a big believer of getting your excuses in early and often.

 

Presidents growing the economy is very shaky science anyway....what I do know is that ever increasing annual fiscal deficits sure helped keep us up around the 2% level for in the period 2016-2025 (how could it not, the debt curve is beautifully sloping upwards)......and like any drug, maintenance requires ever increasing doses.....2016 to 2025 has been a nice period of ever increasing Government deficits & their mirror image which is corporate and consumer surpluses......the annual fiscal debt seems to have topped out at this 6.5% level....debt seems to be getting harder to flog......not much incrementally left on the big red button called 'juice the economy with more federal borrowing'

The long end bond market may not cooperate with lower short term rates but thee are ways to bend the curve (QE3). All these things likely mean lower USD.

 

[changegonnacome]

15 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

The long end bond market may not cooperate with lower short term rates but thee are ways to bend the curve (QE3). All these things likely mean lower USD.

 

Agree

 

Or put a crater in the curve - right at the 10yr point....by forward guidance or by QE3

 

Can't help but feel like the GENUIS act too.....effectively cementing short term treasury backed stablecoins....as the casino chip of choice of crypto land gambling....and all sorts of secondary & tertiary offshore non-FATCA, non-AML/KYC shenanigans......is a kind devils bargain to get Bessent what he needs - a way to create a much deeper, wider and liquid t-bill market.....such that the treasury can continue to double down & expand short term issuance to fund the GA.

 

It feel like the US is really starting to run on fumes re: fiscal stimulus.....every get out of jail budgetary trick seems to have been put on the table (tariffs, stablecoins, DOGE, hostile takeover of the Fed) instead of what is the right thing to do - cutting all core spending programs a little and raising taxes a little on everyone...

 

Edited July 26, 2025 by changegonnacome

[SharperDingaan]

22 hours ago, gfp said:

Yeah, I meant do you have a replacement for the "reserve currency" in mind.  

 

"Reserve currency" replacement is a competitive evolution. For now, more of the displacing settlement lift will fall on the Euro and the Yuan. Longer term changes in the 'stores of value' accomplished via a sale of US assets (grade A RE, blue-chips, etc.) and reinvestment into gold and similar assets outside of the US. BTC benefiting where capital controls are an impediment.  

 

Within NA, CAD appreciating against the USD as some of that reinvestment shifts into new CAD pipe and infrastructure to diversify away from the US. CAD fed/crown corp guaranteed bonds preferred over US paper, with FX appreciation giving an added lift. Canada vs Mexico also being the more conservative diversifying exposure. 

 

Longer term, there will be a CB to CB digital currency that essentially unitises the SDR. Reserve currency 'status' no longer belonging to a country but the world as a whole. Will not happen while Trump is still around, however nobody lives forever. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sdr.asp

 

SD

Edited July 26, 2025 by SharperDingaan

[SharperDingaan]

16 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

It feel like the US is really starting to run on fumes re: fiscal stimulus.....every get out of jail budgetary trick seems to have been put on the table (tariffs, stablecoins, DOGE, hostile takeover of the Fed) instead of what is the right thing to do - cutting all core spending programs a little and raising taxes a little on everyone...

 

Keep in mind that when a 'deal' is signed with a trading partner (i.e. Japan), and the trading partner commits to a billion dollar investment in the US .... it is NOT money going into new US factory tomorrow (per the press spin). It is the trading partner agreeing to roll over a billion dollars of US bonds for a year, versus withdraw the capital as it becomes due (i.e. deferred in return for sweeteners). Same as a corporate issuer stuck with debt that they cannot repay, when it comes due ..... 

 

Also keep in mind that the recent crypto changes facilitate a higher market share of the worlds 'hot money', a good portion of which is money laundered funds. Not the kind of thing one does, unless desperate for new funds. Tariffs and DOGE, are further examples of the desperation for funds.

 

USD reserve currency status floats on the US maintaining the confidence of the market. Market confidence is NOT normally distributed, it is a right-hand skewed distribution; with a sudden and material drop off when confidence is lost. If you weren't sure of that, look at the sudden collapse of the US I-Banks during the GFC. How many failures?, in how many days?, and all because of loss of confidence.

 

It would seem that the likelihood of a US debt restructuring/devaluation is starting to resemble a hockey stick.  

 

SD

Edited July 26, 2025 by SharperDingaan

[changegonnacome]

2 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

Also keep in mind that the recent crypto changes facilitate a higher market share of the worlds 'hot money', a good portion of which is money laundered funds. Not the kind of thing one does, unless desperate for new funds. Tariffs and DOGE, are further examples of the desperation for funds.

 

Exactly what I was getting at........stablecoins are obscure enough that people dont quite get the game here...they hear innovation (& thats true) but its also the US solving for illicit global activity friction in exchange for incremental T-bill liquidity....the alternative would be much more obvious, nod to the underworld, and that would printing up some new $500 or $1000 bills as a new product for the 'hot money' crowd.

[Charlie]

It will be an intersting meeting today between Trump and Von der Leyen:

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-us-trade-agreement-now-082520375.html

 

Trump reiterated that he believed there’s “a 50-50 chance” of a deal with the EU, saying there were sticking points on “maybe 20 different things” that he didn’t want to detail publicly.

 

If there is no deal, there could be serious consequences for the EU, the US

and the stock markets.