kobesystem

The Knowledge Illusion by Steven Sloman and Philip Fernbach was a very interesting read - found it on an investment manager's list of must-reads (can't remember whose list). Essentially the idea is that so much of what we think we "know" is not knowledge that we actually possess. It's stored elsewhere instead: Other People (I know that this vaccine is effective...but only because my doctor recommends it) The Environment (I know how to get around New York City...but only because of the street sign) Artifacts and Tools (I know how to cut a piece of wood...but only because my saw was designed the way that it was) Our Bodies (I know how to hit a golf ball...but only because my body does it automatically - don't ask me to explain how I hit straight) And, sometimes, we actually know and understand what we say we know and understand. I found the concept interesting, but - more importantly - I wanted to explore how it relates to what we do on this forum and the stock market at large. First, there's the efficient market hypothesis, which - even if you don't believe it's entirely true - is a fairly good representation of the idea that knowledge is held elsewhere. Knowledge about company value is contained both in the price, and in all of the other analysis that we consume. Stock prices contain the collective knowledge about a company's value, in addition to other clues about market sentiment, societal trends, etc. There's relevance, too, with the tools and artifacts we rely on for analysis. Particular books (think The Intelligent Investor) allow us to feel like we possess certain knowledge, while long-used tools (think screeners, ratios) give us that impression as well. Finally, there is community knowledge stored on this forum: the company's that are pitched and analyzed; the commenters and comments; the topics that are circulated and debated. I've found myself wondering when and if I can allow myself to know that a certain company will succeed in the long-run just because particular users, or a certain number of them on this forum, seem to to know it. Conversely, I worry that I've waded into certain stocks because of the knowledge illusion. Maybe not much of that knowledge is truly mine, or maybe it doesn't exist to begin with. Maybe I don't know much, after all.

1. I love the fact that this is an international forum, but it's always worth noting that fact during discussions like these. If I lived in another country besides America, I could have legitimate reason to be opposed to Trump's success here, and that my color my comments accordingly. 2. That said, if I'm an American (which I am), I'm not sure why I would post negatively at a time like this. These trade deals are certainly positive for the United States, so I'm cheering them on. 3. Agreeing to trade frameworks or deals in principle is obviously the most important thing. To say that they're not signed or to complain that it's been "over 90 days" is sort of a disingenuous comment. The deals will get done, and they are pretty clearly very big deals. 4. It's worth noting that, according to ChatGPT, President Biden did "not sign any new full-blown trade deals" and signed "four agreements on specific sectors and plurilateral frameworks." 5. ChatGPT counts five deals already during Trump's second term. For the United States, this is obviously a net positive. Trump flexed big, and although he came way down from the high tariffs he originally floated, he's now applied them at a significant but reasonable rate, opened up export markets for American products, and brought in additional foreign investment.

@SharperDingaan taking your advice and looking into OBE quite seriously. Where do you see the most upside there? I like their recent divestment to pay off debt and understand their focus on heavy oil and the good economics there. What, though, sets this apart enough for you to view it as one of your favorites?

My gut feeling is that the negative reaction to the tariffs is overblown and due to the following: Fear/Displeasure from those outside the US that previously-favorable trade imbalances are about to end (no one likes free lunch being taken away) Pro-globalist sentiment galvanizing against Trump and sympathizing with those outside the US, partially for the legitimate reason of not wanting a big shakeup to the economic status quo Cynics in and outside the US who enjoy fomenting the idea that these tariffs are creating economic chaos, and sincerely hope that they do I don't blame those outside the US for hating this move at all. However, I think the two more genuine and reasonable reactions for US citizens are either a) I don't want this short-term pain and don't enjoy this feeling of economic chaos, but I have to admit the net effect for me could be positive or b) I don't mind the short-term pain because I have to admit it looks like we've been ripped off for years and this could have real long-term benefits.

I actually thought Trump made an interesting and subtle point during the press conference. If the tariffs will have such a disastrous effect - as so many say - why is it that so many countries have applied them against the US? Why would the negative economic effects of tariffs not be felt by those countries, but be felt so acutely by the US? I understand that the calculations the Trump administration used to establish the average tariff rate per country may be a bit dubious, but there are countries that certainly tariff the US at high rates. If tariffs are so bad, why aren't those countries removing them? They must be experiencing some sort of benefit from levying tariffs against the US, so why wouldn't the USA also experience those benefits by instituting them against others?