Political Posts

[dealraker]

2 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

This, exactly this,

 

How will that part of of the US Federal budget for 2026 play out? I've looked at it the last weekend, to no avail, by starting totally basic by reading on Wikipedia, - all to no avail, as an a priori totally ignorant.

 

Charlie [ @dealraker ] also has more than alluded to this subject more than once earlier in this topic.

If we do actually collect tariffs then there's no telling what happens in the short term.  I'm just forwarding what I read.  But I'd guess we look better temporarily?  But spending of course will be the ultimate issue.

[cubsfan]

10 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

Yep DOGE and all this tariff revenue is a fig leaf for the reality here…..the debt and deficit are going higher over the short, medium and long term of this presidential term….fiscal hawks my ass…its all lip service…..the Republican disease is thinking that supply side economics can bail out fiscal recklessness….we’re about to hear about a growth boom that will magically fix the deficit via increased government revenues same fantasy we heard in 2016…..the Democratic disease is thinking that demand side economics can somehow do the same.  
 

Both are wrong and I guess it’s a fiscal crisis that will see them come together to cut both spending and raising revenue….both are going to have slaughter their sacred cows on the altar of a crisis….but don’t be fooled….Trump has used Elon & DOGE to give a PR impression of fiscal conservatism while in reality he writes massive tax cuts permanently into law that have no hope of ever being revenue neutral and will accelerate the deterioration of the federal public finances....all while him and his family greatly improve their balance sheet (in plain sight this time).

 

 

 

Seems like you're calling the game a little early here.

 

Have you seen the tax bill being proposed?

[changegonnacome]

3 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Have you seen the tax bill being proposed?

Dude - you know the Senate sent the bill back to the House with a current spending policy baseline attached on April 10th….the fiscal hawk charade was over then….the GOP are taking FY25 discretionary spending levels and moving some numbers around for FY26…..but the pressure was taken off Johnson on April 10th and surprise surprise since then you’ve heard practically nothing around difficult cuts to Medicare or Medicaid…I watch this closely via a position in $CNC….mark my words FY25 spending will be replicated for FY26 (maybe some token minor shrinkage for optics)…while the revenue side will get hammered….CBO estimates will have FY26 deficit widening once the numbers are crunched….and Bessent & Lutnick will be all over CNBC telling a folks a deregulation/re-industrialization boom will see revenues outperform all CBO estimates under a proprietary dynamic scoring model….the same dynamic model that never paid for Trump’s TCJA cuts the last time and contributed to blowing out the deficit then too.

[John Hjorth]

Thanks, Charlie [ @dealraker ], Mike [ @cubsfan ] and @changegonnacome,

 

Any suggestions about where to read to get a basic understanding of the basic yearly budget cycle, process, which I suppose must be a Congress thingy, with some computation macro nerds / guys involved? [Round small glasses, always in a checkered shirt, doing just calculations all day long].

[changegonnacome]

@John Hjorth I’d suggest ChatGPT or Gemini deep research for an outline on standard and non-standard budgetary manouvers in DC…it’s quite arcane at times especially when the ruling party has such slim majorities as the GOP have today. 

[Parsad]

8 hours ago, Xerxes said:

the same thing that the Americans of all political leanings do everyday, all day long. 
 

bitch and complain about everything. 

 

LOL!   Cheers!

[Parsad]

6 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Yea, whataboutism is a bs gaslighting no accountability copout.

 

In a nutshell "it doesnt matter what Ive done or condoned, we're only going to talk about what I want to, nothing else should be accounted for"...thats why so many of you guys are the problem. Trump only makes these things so laughably retarded and blatant with his greed and shamelessness. But they were all enabled by people being fine with this stuff and then when called out for their dismissiveness, saying "whataboutism"...and it's like yea, well....what the fuck about it? Now we draw the line?

 

I don't have any problem with the plane.  I just think it's a gift as President, and should belong to the country.  Replace an old Air Force One with the new plane.  No need for it to sit at Trump's library...and you save taxpayers a shitload of money...not to mention improve the security of Air Force One. 

 

There should also be some maximum...maybe there is already and I'm not aware of it.  But any state gifts (not fundraising, lobbyists, etc), but gifts from sovereign nations, the President should be allowed to keep the ones below $5,000...they go to the their home or Library.  Any gifts over $5,000...stay in the White House or state museums.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

4 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

You know, Robert Kennedy Jr. also went to school at Harvard.

 

Michael Salyor went to MIT.

 

Lol.

 

Yeah, but they weren't bastions of woke pussies back then!  They used to hunt with automatic machine guns, drink kegs at frat parties, only let in Jewish minorities (and that was only if your name didn't sound Jewish), and didn't subsidize degrees for anyone...you better have money, bitch!    Cheers! 

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, mattee2264 said:

The new "Big Beautiful Bill" proposes an increase in the debt ceiling of $4TR. 

 

So I guess that is how we are going to fund the tax cuts. 

 

 

 

 

 

We knew this was the plan from the beginning.  Long-term, it will probably actually work as tariffs (as low as they will be at 10%), will generate hundreds of billions annually...not the trillions they were talking about.  But even if they just raise $750B a year, eventually balance the budget, that $750B will slowly reduce debt to GDP as GDP grows and debt grows much slower. 

 

It worked very well in Canada (not tariffs, but a balanced budget and reduction in debt to GDP) for over a decade.  I hope to see it again here in Canada under Carney.  Any DOGE savings, and cuts elsewhere will be used to offset the tax cuts...the hole would have been even bigger if they didn't make those cuts.  Eventually, the tax cuts and tariffs will drive more business into the U.S., including manufacturing, production, facilities, etc and that will grow GDP and tax revenue.  Cheers!

[Spekulatius]

17 minutes ago, Parsad said:

We knew this was the plan from the beginning.  Long-term, it will probably actually work as tariffs (as low as they will be at 10%), will generate hundreds of billions annually...not the trillions they were talking about. 

Total imports were ~$3.4T in 2024 without tariffs for the most part. If you assume some offset/exemptions  and import reduction at a 10% tariff rate and assume $2.5T in imports, I don’t think more than $250B in tariff income are realistic.

Edited May 13, 2025 by Spekulatius

[dwy000]

4 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Total imports were ~$3.4T in 2024 without tariffs for the most part. If you assume some offset/exemptions  and import reduction at a 10% tariff rate and assume $2.5T in imports, I don’t think more than $250B in tariff income are realistic.

Not to mention if you remove the exempted products, the applicable base for the 10% is going to be lower.  Although it also assumes there's no reduction in demand from adding $200bn+ in taxes to the economy.

[adesigar]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

 

I don't have any problem with the plane.  I just think it's a gift as President, and should belong to the country.  Replace an old Air Force One with the new plane.  No need for it to sit at Trump's library...and you save taxpayers a shitload of money...not to mention improve the security of Air Force One. 

 

There should also be some maximum...maybe there is already and I'm not aware of it.  But any state gifts (not fundraising, lobbyists, etc), but gifts from sovereign nations, the President should be allowed to keep the ones below $5,000...they go to the their home or Library.  Any gifts over $5,000...stay in the White House or state museums.  Cheers!

https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/article-1/section-9/

Article 1, Section 9

• Clause 8 Titles of Nobility and Foreign Emoluments

• No Title of Nobility shall be granted by the United States: And no Person holding any Office of Profit or Trust under them, shall, without the Consent of the Congress, accept of any present, Emolument, Office, or Title, of any kind whatever, from any King, Prince, or foreign State.

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Total imports were ~$3.4T in 2024 without tariffs for the most part. If you assume some offset/exemptions  and import reduction at a 10% tariff rate and assume $2.5T in imports, I don’t think more than $250B in tariff income are realistic.

 

It's 30% against China, and I suspect those considered the worst offenders will be higher than 10% as well.  China is $500B in imports alone, so roughly $150B.  

 

Total imports into the U.S. in 2024 at $3.4T.  If you assume a 15% average tariff, you are looking at least $450B.  It will still make a small dent in paying down the debt or offsetting the annual deficit. 

 

Cheers! 

[Parsad]

21 minutes ago, adesigar said:

https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/article-1/section-9/

Article 1, Section 9

• Clause 8 Titles of Nobility and Foreign Emoluments

• No Title of Nobility shall be granted by the United States: And no Person holding any Office of Profit or Trust under them, shall, without the Consent of the Congress, accept of any present, Emolument, Office, or Title, of any kind whatever, from any King, Prince, or foreign State.

 

Yeah, this is pointless, since they are raking in billions in other ways.  And not only Trump...Congress is allowed to trade on insider information.  So, if the gift goes to the country, I have no problem with it.  It's all the grift that happens where the individual or his family is benefiting directly or indirectly.  Cheers!

[Blake Hampton]

"Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the health secretary, posted photos on Sunday of himself and his grandchildren swimming in a contaminated Washington creek where swimming is not allowed because it is used for sewer runoff."

 

RFK Jr. Swims in Washington Creek That Flows With Sewage and Bacteria - NYT

 

You can't make this stuff up.

[DooDiligence]

 

[Sweet]

On 5/12/2025 at 1:30 PM, mattee2264 said:

Pretty unconscionable that Trump once again told everyone to buy stocks just days before giving China a 90 day pause. 

Why?  He literally told everyone to buy.  Everyone.

 

Whereas before only a select few knew and chances are many of them made a lot of money from that knowledge one way another.

[DooDiligence]

20 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Why?  He literally told everyone to buy.  Everyone.

 

Whereas before only a select few knew and chances are many of them made a lot of money from that knowledge one way another.

 

Insider trading for the plebes.

That certainly makes it right.

 

Edited May 13, 2025 by DooDiligence

[lnofeisone]

20 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Why?  He literally told everyone to buy.  Everyone.

 

Whereas before only a select few knew and chances are many of them made a lot of money from that knowledge one way another.

A more significant point is being overlooked here. Perhaps it's just me missing something in my civics classes, but I didn't realize the president's job description includes day trading. How about focusing on effective governance, cost control, and the advancement of US interests, and (secondarily but tied to the former) global interests? Setting up an idiotic tariff policy that caused markets to rightfully tank, to walk it back, is not a win. 

[thepupil]

Quote

President Obama said Tuesday that he is not intently focused on the “day-to-day gyrations of the stock market,” comparing the downward roller-coaster on Wall Street to the fickle nature of political polls.

“You know, it bobs up and down day to day,” Mr. Obama said. “And if you spend all your time worrying about that, then you’re probably going to get the long-term strategy wrong.”

The president did not offer any specific stock tips, but suggested that he believed the market might be close to its low point.

“Profit and earning ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal,” Mr. Obama said, “if you’ve got a long-term perspective on it.”

With British Prime Minister Gordon Brown at his side in the Oval Office, Mr. Obama said it was more important to focus on whether lines of credit were flowing, businesses were making new investments and unemployed workers were finding jobs. He said was “absolutely confident” the global financial crisis would turn around if those markers were met.

As his words were broadcast on cable networks shortly after noon on Tuesday, the indicator at the bottom of the television screen showed that the Dow Jones industrial average was down once again. On Monday, the Dow closed below 7,000 for the first time since 1997.

“What I’m looking at is not the day-to-day gyrations of the stock market, but the long-term ability for the United States and the entire world economy to regain its footing,” Mr. Obama said. “And, you know, the stock market is sort of like a tracking poll in politics.”

With lax regulation and major risks undertaken by banks, Mr. Obama said it was “not surprising that the market is hurting as a consequence.” He said the decline on Wall Street was a “natural reaction” given the bad assets that have soured banks.

 

 

"potentially a good deal...if you've got a long term perspective"

 

March 2009 LOL. 

 

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, DooDiligence said:

 

Insider trading for the plebes.

That certainly makes it right.

 

Lol, that’s the thing.  He actually made that insider knowledge semi-public.  The MAGA cult made money, the TDS got mad. 

 

1 hour ago, lnofeisone said:

A more significant point is being overlooked here. Perhaps it's just me missing something in my civics classes, but I didn't realize the president's job description includes day trading. How about focusing on effective governance, cost control, and the advancement of US interests, and (secondarily but tied to the former) global interests? Setting up an idiotic tariff policy that caused markets to rightfully tank, to walk it back, is not a win. 

No arguments.  Just saying, I honestly prefer this than a select few having insider information and making shit loads of money.  
 

Edited May 13, 2025 by Sweet

[james22]

On 5/8/2025 at 8:13 AM, Charlie said:

This is the origin of the conflict. The US administration tries to manipulate other countries politics.

The US administration should care about their own inflected problems (which is all around the world)

and not try to influence ohter countries politics.

That is the same mistake Vance and Musk did.

They didn´t learn anything:

 

Rubio:

"Germany just gave its spy agency new powers to surveil the opposition. That’s not democracy—it’s tyranny in disguise. What is truly extremist is not the popular AfD—which took second in the recent election—but rather the establishment’s deadly open border immigration policies."

 

Answer from the German Foreign Office:

"This is democracy. This decision is the result of a thorough & independent investigation to protect our Constitution & the rule of law. It is independent courts that will have the final say. We have learnt from our history that rightwing extremism needs to be stopped."

 

The move follows a formal request by US Senator Tom Cotton, who called on the Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, to suspend intelligence cooperation with Germany.

 

Citing what he described as the misuse of intelligence tools for political targeting, Cotton emphasized that actions such as monitoring, infiltration, and surveillance of opposition parties are reminiscent of authoritarian regimes, not democratic allies.

 

https://reclaimthenet.org/germany-halts-afd-far-right-label-amid-us-pressure-surveillance-row

 

Alice Weidel, co-chair of the AfD, said American pressure was behind the BfV’s withdrawal of its designation label on the AfD.

 

In addition, Joachim Steinhöfel, a lawyer defending freedom of speech . . . noted that U.S. influence was vital. “We also have to thank the Americans for exerting massive pressure,” he added.

 

https://rmx.news/article/a-complete-surrender-us-pressure-may-have-forced-germany-to-drop-surveillance-on-right-wing-afd-party/

[LC]

1 hour ago, lnofeisone said:

Perhaps it's just me missing something in my civics classes, but I didn't realize the president's job description includes day trading. How about focusing on effective governance, cost control, and the advancement of US interests, and (secondarily but tied to the former) global interests?

 

He has failed on his two biggest actions globally:

-tariffs: embarrassed himself/his country and walked back most of it, total failure posturing vs. China as he now appears weak.

-Rus/Ukr: another total failure at trying to control both the narrative and the war itself, embarrassed by Putin and embarrassed himself/his administration in their meeting with Zelensky

 

His national governance policies are already another embarrassment as they're blatantly unconstitutional (ICE, refusal to follow congressional law and judicial rulings), and his cost-cutting is being shown as ineffective.

 

So all together he bungled a whole lot at once, and now is doing whatever he can to save face.

[Red Lion]

13 hours ago, Parsad said:

If you assume a 15% average tariff, you are looking at least $450B.  It will still make a small dent in paying down the debt or offsetting the annual deficit. 

Wouldn’t make that much difference with the deficit, but it would fully pay to extend tax cuts right? 

[Xerxes]

Arabian Gulf vs Persian Gulf …. lol

 

Stupidity never ends.
 

Do people in The White House can even point to the Gulf on the map.