Political Posts

[Blake Hampton]

3 minutes ago, gfp said:

Not to mention, he has since sold out of that Nike to replace the position with call options

Did he buy calls on Nike? Where do you see that?

[villainx]

Is there a rationale for delisting other than punitive retaliation? 

 

 

[gfp]

58 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Did he buy calls on Nike? Where do you see that?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nike-looks-disappear-bill-ackmans-123000264.html

 

Converting Nike shares to call options

In its investor update, Pershing disclosed that in early 2025 the fund converted its Nike equity position, valued at over $1.4 billion at the end of the fourth quarter, to deep in-the-money call options. 

[james22]

Everyone who follows this site knows I’ve always had an uncomfortable relationship to the Trump phenomenon. At the best of times, I find him puzzling and maybe dangerous, even when he’s being funny or taking aim at deserving targets.

 

Now he’s president and people seem reflexively to want more criticism of him, but on this issue, what choice is there? The global economy created by both parties from the eighties onward was not only designed to be a giant predatory clusterfuck, but nearly impossible to unwind.

 

Forget “incrementally,” it’s got to be exploded. Would more of the same and a slow death be better?

 

https://www.racket.news/p/burn-it-all-down

[RichardGibbons]

I think a large part of the inefficiency in government is hidden but a result of the lack of profit incentive. Once it's government money, there's no skin in the game, so people are fine being lazy, spending more than necessary, or burning money on virtue signalling.

 

A fun example in Canada is the expansion of the Transmountain Pipeline. Essentially, it was a private project whose goal was simply to twin an existing pipeline. The initial cost estimate, for the private company, was $6.8B.

But they had a hard time getting it built, largely because of red tape and grass-roots opposition leading to constant delays. So in 2018, they finally gave up and sold the pipeline to the government of Canada. At that point, it had a $7.4 billion estimated cost to complete.

 

The pipeline went operation in May, 2024 at a final cost of $34B. I can't point to exactly where the costs ballooned to 5 times the initial estimates, or 4.5 times the 2018 estimates. But, knowing the way the Government of Canada works, I can guess.

 

That said, I don't know how to get such inefficiencies out of government, except by starving the beast and transferring the work to the private sector. Because I can guarantee every penny spent was considered a valid expense by some government official who had no incentive not to burn taxpayers' money.

[dwy000]

9 minutes ago, RichardGibbons said:

I think a large part of the inefficiency in government is hidden but a result of the lack of profit incentive. Once it's government money, there's no skin in the game, so people are fine being lazy, spending more than necessary, or burning money on virtue signalling.

 

A fun example in Canada is the expansion of the Transmountain Pipeline. Essentially, it was a private project whose goal was simply to twin an existing pipeline. The initial cost estimate, for the private company, was $6.8B.

But they had a hard time getting it built, largely because of red tape and grass-roots opposition leading to constant delays. So in 2018, they finally gave up and sold the pipeline to the government of Canada. At that point, it had a $7.4 billion estimated cost to complete.

 

The pipeline went operation in May, 2024 at a final cost of $34B. I can't point to exactly where the costs ballooned to 5 times the initial estimates, or 4.5 times the 2018 estimates. But, knowing the way the Government of Canada works, I can guess.

 

That said, I don't know how to get such inefficiencies out of government, except by starving the beast and transferring the work to the private sector. Because I can guarantee every penny spent was considered a valid expense by some government official who had no incentive not to burn taxpayers' money.

A company i used to work for had a program where if you highlighted potential cost savings the person was eligible to get a portion of the amount saved.  The system got overwhelmed and they had to dial it back. 

[lnofeisone]

1 hour ago, RichardGibbons said:

I think a large part of the inefficiency in government is hidden but a result of the lack of profit incentive. Once it's government money, there's no skin in the game, so people are fine being lazy, spending more than necessary, or burning money on virtue signalling.

 

A fun example in Canada is the expansion of the Transmountain Pipeline. Essentially, it was a private project whose goal was simply to twin an existing pipeline. The initial cost estimate, for the private company, was $6.8B.

But they had a hard time getting it built, largely because of red tape and grass-roots opposition leading to constant delays. So in 2018, they finally gave up and sold the pipeline to the government of Canada. At that point, it had a $7.4 billion estimated cost to complete.

 

The pipeline went operation in May, 2024 at a final cost of $34B. I can't point to exactly where the costs ballooned to 5 times the initial estimates, or 4.5 times the 2018 estimates. But, knowing the way the Government of Canada works, I can guess.

 

That said, I don't know how to get such inefficiencies out of government, except by starving the beast and transferring the work to the private sector. Because I can guarantee every penny spent was considered a valid expense by some government official who had no incentive not to burn taxpayers' money.

While I agree with your comment on lack of profit incentive I don't think transmountain is a good example of it. Transmountain was a huge multi year engineering project. Many projects like that don't do well and have costs overruns. Look at voglte 1 and 2 ans then 3 and 4 after. Similar magnitude and similar overruns despite being profit motivated. There are also number of engineering firms that went under or presented great investment opps because they didn't size up large projects correctly and they were profit motivated. 

 

There might be some waste in government but the scale is miniscule and is more than offset by those who truly outperform at fraction of private industry cost, e.g., scientists, doctors, lawyers.

[Spekulatius]

I think we are looking at a severe recession with no place to hide. The two largest economies basically have stopped trading with each other. If this continued a lot of supply chains and industries  will melt down  (retail, automobile, aerospace (aluminum tariffs , rare earth export controls ), consumer goods (Apple) and I expect semi and other tech sectors  to be hard hit controls). Perhaps even industrial sectors in general will have issues ad many small components come from China like small elector motors for example which also often contain rare earth.

 

The US government has a stockpiles (for strategic industries like defense) and companies have safety stock of material components but that will only last a few month and after that I expect shortages.

 

I hope there will be some deal and currently the market is implicitly pricing it in , otherwise we would be much lower.

Edited April 12, 2025 by Spekulatius

[dwy000]

4 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

I think we are looking at a severe recession with no place to hide. The two largest economies basically have stopped trading with each other. If this continued a lot of supply chains and industries  will melt down  (retail, automobile, aerospace (aluminum tariffs , rare earth export controls ), consumer goods (Apple) and I expect semi and other tech sectors  to be hard hit controls). Perhaps even industrial sectors in general will have issues ad many small components come from China like small elector motors for example which also often contain rare earth.

 

The US government has a stockpiles (for strategic industries like defense) and companies have safety stock of material components but that will only last a few month and after that I expect shortages.

 

I hope there will be some deal and currently the market is implicitly pricing it in , otherwise we would be much lower.

And judging by the number of times today Trump has asked China to call there will be a deal.  Its like a 15 year old girl sitting by the phone.

[changegonnacome]

$2 trillion dollars of savings & full self driving coming next year!!!! Elon ‘I’ve got a bridge to sell you’ Musk.

 

Elon remains one of the greatest promoters of stocks, stories and fairytales there’s ever been. 
 

Someday the story will come out on how the SEC, NHTSA etc were most likely closing in on him for fibbing to investors and Tesla owners who’ve been purchasing FULL self driving since 2016!
 

I know, I know “rockets bro”…..but two things can be true at once….he’s an unequaled bullshit artist with a loose grip on what you and I might call the truth….while also being the greatest entrepreneur of his generation. I can see how Captain Chaos and him vibe together - they both create their own version of reality and so their lies don’t quite feel like real lies ( but they are).

[changegonnacome]

Wow EUR-USD moves are pretty large......we were at $1.02 back in early Feb.....touched $1.14 today!

 

 

 

Thing to watch now will be whether capital inflows to EUR/UK ETF's or Trusts are picking up as a sign that dollar recycling into US assets is now a dollar diversification recycle trade.....lots of good reasons now for Chinese & other foreign actors to hold non-US assets...everybody kinda knew the American exceptionalism momentum trade had played out (i think)...and if that isn't enough reason to diversify alone....let's just call it Captain Chaos diversification.

 

I'd also say that the US is running out of policy options and is starting to look hemmed in in terms of the moves it can make.....the Fed is constrained by core elevated inflation and inflationary policies coming out of the WH....the fiscal authorities (WH & Congress) are constrained in that they most certainly can't push the envelope any more on incremental deficit spending above or beyond the nearly ~7% rate currently......simply because the mountain of existing debt with its poor maturity profile is looming large & the debt servicing would really go into death spiral.

 

Feels like we've reached the end game in terms of being able to juice GDP growth with monetary and fiscal largesse....there is little to no incremental stimulation left to juice the economy/markets......if anything we are looking at austerity. 

 

@Pelagic thanks for these nuggets from the Woodford book....shows how belligerent Captain Chaos can be...stubborn old Grandpa for sure....but I think when presented with the abyss he's shown over time that he will step back from his own stupidity if only to make himself the saviour (never mind that he's the arsonist, in Trump's narcissistic mind he can still be the hero of every situation even the ones he self-generates)

 

 

 

 

But stuff like the below is going to hurt Captain Chaos but more importantly congressional Republicans already thinking about 2026 - "Trump Tariff Surcharges Are Now Getting Added to Customer Bills"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-11/trump-tariff-surcharges-are-now-getting-added-to-customer-bills?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=7zqHEcxJ

 

Finally - I'll say it again - China pause is incoming. The old man wants an easy life, he wants to be loved, he wants to be liked....his ego is fragile...he is not a man of true conviction & metal which would be required to tough out the pain to come from truly going through with this policy position...he's a rich kid who's had it easy his whole life..he enjoys being the centre of attention but its short lived once the consequences show up.....job losses, factory closures.....he'll see some poor SME business owner on Fox one evening when's eating McDonald's in Mar-a-lago and hear about them losing their business/home and he'll get his phone out and send out a 'Truth' announcing a pause to help the poor people getting hurt by this.

 

The other thing I'd say....if you war game things out properly......Trump has a very big incentive to see a Republican President replace him.....which requires good stewardship of the economy........Why?...cause its a non-zero chance that the next President is a Democrat and non-zero chance that that President will be a populist of left, a populist in reaction to Trump recession/inflation......Trump will be 82yrs of age when he leaves office.....he doesn't want Federal investigations or Law fare 2.0 waiting for him.....he doesn't want the glimmer of possibility he could end up in jail in his feebled old age.....I've heard folks say that Trump 2.0 is a rebel without consequences cause he doesn't need to get re-elected....not so....IMO he might be even more politically sensitive this time around than he was the last....cause he can NEVER be President again....becoming President this time saved his bacon....he doesn't have that option this time....his best option for peace and freedom in his old age.....is a JD Vance/GOP Presidency.

 

Trump's self-preservation genes will kick in soon and all this trade deal stuff will get tossed to JD Vance to bury deep on page 20 of the WSJ.

 

 

Edited April 12, 2025 by changegonnacome

[RichardGibbons]

3 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

Transmountain was a huge multi year engineering project. Many projects like that don't do well and have costs overruns.

 

Yeah, I'd bet that some of the expenses were actually engineering-related. But I'd also bet that the majority of the expenses were simply bad and politicized decision-making. Like hiring the union guys to dig the hole rather than the non-union guy. Subcontracting the tree-clearing to the indigenous company that is not only 5 times the price, but also delays the project for 6 months causing cascading costly impacts. Additional bribes to First Nations tribes because that's what "reconciliation" means on big projects. Extra environmental studies that cause both upfront costs and delays.

 

For a years, we've seen how the Trudeau and BC NDP governments work, and it seems naive to believe that their new way of doing business would be any different for this project.

 

3 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

There might be some waste in government but the scale is miniscule and is more than offset by those who truly outperform at fraction of private industry cost, e.g., scientists, doctors, lawyers.

 

Government scientists mostly have a different occupation than private industry scientists. Over the last few years, Canada's medical system has much worse outcomes and worse expenses than pretty well any first-world public/private system you want to compare it to. And you aren't saving money if you require 5x the lawyers to navigate the red tape and bureaucracy created by the government, even if you save 20% in the cost of those lawyers. More and cheaper government lawyers is a huge net negative for societal outcomes.

[Paarslaars]

[John Hjorth]

I don't recall it has been shared before here on CofB&F, the film by Peter Navarro, from August 18^th 2012 :

 

DeathByChina [April 10^th 2016] : Death By China: How America Lost Its Manufacturing Base (Official Version)

 

 

[Parsad]

On 4/10/2025 at 11:51 PM, Sweet said:

 

I have, I don’t agree with you.  You must not know what the Nazis believed or did.

 

Being a dickhead, being against large scale immigration, does not make you a Nazis - not even close.

 

I’m not being apologist, I’m afraid you need to look at yourself on this one and ask why you need to overreach to Nazis.

 

 

This is the guy you are talking about:

 

”“I have been in the same room with Elon, and he always tries to be funny. And he’s not funny. Like, at all,” says a senior Trump administration official. “He makes these jokes and little asides and smiles and then looks almost hurt if you don’t lap up his humor.”

 

And…

 

“With DOGE, Musk has gleefully banished tens of thousands of federal employees, canceled lifesaving aid, and repeatedly threatened America’s safety-net programs, all as part of a purported hunt for waste, fraud, and abuse. He’s governed as an out-of-touch corporate villain, laughing about this carnage while partying, posting, delivering big payments to voters (although the amounts mean virtually nothing to him), and cashing in on new contracts and business opportunities — sometimes appearing high out of his mind.”

 

And…

 

“Talking to the guy is sometimes like listening to really rusty nails on a chalkboard,” says the senior Trump administration official, who adds that Musk is not much of a team player, either. “He’s just the most irritating person I’ve ever had to deal with, and that is saying something.”

 

Is he an edgy, nerdy, cringey, socially retarded, out of touch, asshole.  Yes.  
 

Is he a Nazis - sorry no - you need to be honestly compare and contrast the two.

 

Sorry Doo, just cannot agree.

 

 

 

What did the Nazi's believe in?  

• Nationalism
• Reject Liberalism
• Reject Democracy
• Racial Superiority
• Removal of a specific group of people
  • Jews
  • Disabled
  • Gay
  • Other minorities

I can go on...there are certainly some similarities.  Cheers!

 

[Parsad]

12 hours ago, LC said:

 

What really gets me is - why aren't all the small government conservatives throwing a fit?

I haven't heard a peep.

 

The two kings of capitalism are in power (Trump) and scouring the federal government (Musk) for waste abuse fraud corruption laziness etc.....and find barely anything?

150B of cancelled contracts for a 7 trillion dollar government is laughable! 

 

And remember: this is Elon Musk's project. The smartest guy in the room! Our favorite autistic-savant. And backed up by his personal crack team of 24 year old genuises - if he can't find the waste and fraud, who can?

Or maybe....it doesn't exist?

So for all the crap that globalists get about being beholden to "textbook economics" - well what has the last two months shown us?

1) Protectionist policies don't work but rather implode economies

2) Government is not wasteful/inefficient, and in fact may be just as efficient as private corporations

 

In light of this, are the die-hard conservatives re-evaluating their biblical verse that "government=inefficient"?

Again, I haven't heard a peep.

+1!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

13 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

Things can change fast if a few key countries agree to play ball.

 

Say you get Japan, S Korea, or maybe an Italy lined up - things might change.

 

Nobody at all disagrees with this.  It's the method behind the madness!

 

Jimmy Kimmel had a funny take on this.  It's like your dog vomiting all over your bed, and then eating the vomit and looking at you like "I did good, huh?!"  

 

Yeah, you did good shithead!  Cheers!

[Luke]

5 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

Wow EUR-USD moves are pretty large......we were at $1.02 back in early Feb.....touched $1.14 today!

 

 

 

Thing to watch now will be whether capital inflows to EUR/UK ETF's or Trusts are picking up as a sign that dollar recycling into US assets is now a dollar diversification recycle trade.....lots of good reasons now for Chinese & other foreign actors to hold non-US assets...everybody kinda knew the American exceptionalism momentum trade had played out (i think)...and if that isn't enough reason to diversify alone....let's just call it Captain Chaos diversification.

 

I'd also say that the US is running out of policy options and is starting to look hemmed in in terms of the moves it can make.....the Fed is constrained by core elevated inflation and inflationary policies coming out of the WH....the fiscal authorities (WH & Congress) are constrained in that they most certainly can't push the envelope any more on incremental deficit spending above or beyond the nearly ~7% rate currently......simply because the mountain of existing debt with its poor maturity profile is looming large & the debt servicing would really go into death spiral.

 

Feels like we've reached the end game in terms of being able to juice GDP growth with monetary and fiscal largesse....there is little to no incremental stimulation left to juice the economy/markets......if anything we are looking at austerity. 

 

@Pelagic thanks for these nuggets from the Woodford book....shows how belligerent Captain Chaos can be...stubborn old Grandpa for sure....but I think when presented with the abyss he's shown over time that he will step back from his own stupidity if only to make himself the saviour (never mind that he's the arsonist, in Trump's narcissistic mind he can still be the hero of every situation even the ones he self-generates)

 

 

 

 

But stuff like the below is going to hurt Captain Chaos but more importantly congressional Republicans already thinking about 2026 - "Trump Tariff Surcharges Are Now Getting Added to Customer Bills"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-11/trump-tariff-surcharges-are-now-getting-added-to-customer-bills?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=7zqHEcxJ

 

Finally - I'll say it again - China pause is incoming. The old man wants an easy life, he wants to be loved, he wants to be liked....his ego is fragile...he is not a man of true conviction & metal which would be required to tough out the pain to come from truly going through with this policy position...he's a rich kid who's had it easy his whole life..he enjoys being the centre of attention but its short lived once the consequences show up.....job losses, factory closures.....he'll see some poor SME business owner on Fox one evening when's eating McDonald's in Mar-a-lago and hear about them losing their business/home and he'll get his phone out and send out a 'Truth' announcing a pause to help the poor people getting hurt by this.

 

The other thing I'd say....if you war game things out properly......Trump has a very big incentive to see a Republican President replace him.....which requires good stewardship of the economy........Why?...cause its a non-zero chance that the next President is a Democrat and non-zero chance that that President will be a populist of left, a populist in reaction to Trump recession/inflation......Trump will be 82yrs of age when he leaves office.....he doesn't want Federal investigations or Law fare 2.0 waiting for him.....he doesn't want the glimmer of possibility he could end up in jail in his feebled old age.....I've heard folks say that Trump 2.0 is a rebel without consequences cause he doesn't need to get re-elected....not so....IMO he might be even more politically sensitive this time around than he was the last....cause he can NEVER be President again....becoming President this time saved his bacon....he doesn't have that option this time....his best option for peace and freedom in his old age.....is a JD Vance/GOP Presidency.

 

Trump's self-preservation genes will kick in soon and all this trade deal stuff will get tossed to JD Vance to bury deep on page 20 of the WSJ.

 

 

Thanks for the thoughtful insights.

[mattee2264]

Trump is reported as saying "the bond market is doing good. It had a little moment but I solved that problem very quickly".

 

 

[Sweet]

2 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

What did the Nazi's believe in?  

• Nationalism
• Reject Liberalism
• Reject Democracy
• Racial Superiority
• Removal of a specific group of people
  • Jews
  • Disabled
  • Gay
  • Other minorities

I can go on...there are certainly some similarities.  Cheers!

 

 

I share similarities with Hitler.  I like dogs and women, I also don’t agree with large scale immigration, or believe that all cultures or equal.  Yet I loath the Nazis and what they did.  I had a great many relatives who fought them in WW2.

This guy, the supporter of the H-1b visa programme, believes in ‘racial superiority’ apparently. Maybe of Asians given by the photo.

The largest Nationalist government in the world is in India led by Modi.  It’s Hindu nationalist and Modi believes in a country for Hindu people.  Are there similarity with some Nazi beliefs - sure.  But are Modi and Hindu Nationalists Nazis - no, because of the area were they are dissimilar matters (fascism, wars, genocide).

 

We need to stop these silly comparisons.  Not only is it unfair to Musk and many others incorrectly labelled as Nazis.  It also cheapens what the Nazis were and what they did - which was some of most despicable things ever committed by mankind.  
 

Edited April 12, 2025 by Sweet

[Milu]

17 minutes ago, Sweet said:

 

I share similarities with Hitler.  I like dogs and women, I also don’t agree with large scale immigration, or believe that all cultures or equal.  Yet I loath the Nazis and what they did.  I had a great many relatives who fought them in WW2.

This guy, the supporter of the H-1b visa programme, believes in ‘racial superiority’ apparently. Maybe of Asians given by the photo.

The largest Nationalist government in the world is in India led by Modi.  It’s Hindu nationalist and Modi believes in a country for Hindu people.  Are there similarity with some Nazi beliefs - sure.  But are Modi and Hindu Nationalists Nazis - no, because of those area we’re they are NOT similar (fascism, wars, genocide).

 

We need to stop these silly comparisons.  Not only is it unfair to Musk and many others incorrectly labelled as Nazis.  It also cheapens what the Nazis were and what did - which was some of most despicable things ever committed by mankind.  

Very well said. Particularly your last sentence. 
 

The Trump is a hitler, Elon is a Nazi stuff is ridiculous. I’m continually surprised at how many seemingly intelligent people I know in real life or on the forum who continue to make the comparison.

 

It’s ok to just not like somebody or even hate them, but this constant equating to Nazi’s is a bit dumb. 
 

 

[Paarslaars]

2 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Nobody at all disagrees with this.  It's the method behind the madness!

 

Jimmy Kimmel had a funny take on this.  It's like your dog vomiting all over your bed, and then eating the vomit and looking at you like "I did good, huh?!"  

 

Yeah, you did good shithead!  Cheers!

That was Jon Stewart, or Kimmel stole it.

[Ver]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

I don't recall it has been shared before here on CofB&F, the film by Peter Navarro, from August 18^th 2012 :

 

DeathByChina [April 10^th 2016] : Death By China: How America Lost Its Manufacturing Base (Official Version)

 

 

 

It's quite fascinating. In a way, U.S. wants to be China and China wants to be the U.S. 

 

On one hand, the U.S. lacks manufacturing capability and has severe structural imbalances. Many understandably mourn the lack of factory jobs in middle America that paid well and didn't require a college education. U.S. factory owners get frustrated that they can't compete with lower cost Chinese manufacturers and have to close. With few good jobs, communities get hallowed out, people lose purpose and become addicted to drugs, and the cycle worsens. They need somebody to blame. 

 

On the other side China has that manufacturing in abundance. However, there's huge numbers of Chinese OEM/ODM factory owners exhausted at thankless and endless work with minimal profit. No matter how hard they work and how efficient their operations, up to their eyeballs in debt, they can only capture a tiny portion of the total retail value; around 8-10%~. With such low value capture, they lack the ability to pay employees well unless operating at massive scale, so employees don't prosper either. All the rest goes to mostly western middlemen and some Chinese intermediary sellers on Amazon or other platforms. And this is with American consumers being willing to pay grossly inflated prices out of ignorance. The Chinese factory owners look jealously at all the western companies who make all the profits, while many employees only take these jobs because everything else is worse.

 

Wonder why we don't ever hear the tales of how insanely overpriced all the stuff we buy is; we're talking 10x+ markups compared to the same product in China. Some of this pays for inevitable logistics costs, but most is unnecessary. The western customer is getting an apparently good deal buying from China, but they're actually getting screwed for how good it should be. 

[Blake Hampton]

14 minutes ago, Ver said:

Wonder why we don't ever hear the tales of how insanely overpriced all the stuff we buy is; we're talking 10x+ markups compared to the same product in China. Some of this pays for inevitable logistics costs, but most is unnecessary. The western customer is getting an apparently good deal buying from China, but they're actually getting screwed for how good it should be. 

 

Maybe this excess profit capture is where some of our country's remaining jobs are.

[Blake Hampton]

1 hour ago, mattee2264 said:

Trump is reported as saying "the bond market is doing good. It had a little moment but I solved that problem very quickly".

 

"Investors may feel the same way. They had breathed a sigh of relief after Mr Trump’s sudden decision to cut tariffs on most countries and leave a 90-day gap for trade talks. The reprieve on April 9th lifted shares dramatically and halted a menacing spike in the yield on government debt. The bond market, which had been getting “yippy”, in Mr Trump’s words, turned into something “beautiful”."