Political Posts

[73 Reds]

12 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

And that is exactly my point. For you and I sitting back watching a screen it is (potentially) opportunity. And it is even entertaining.  For companies making long term decisions it is paralyzing.  For people impacted it can be devastating. And all of that flows back into the "opportunity".

 

If those homebuilders call up Jorge and tell him they're pausing discussions until this settles it could set JOE back 6 months, a year, or a lot more. 

Wouldn't want to invest in any companies making long term decisions based on the last 2-3 weeks.

[Gregmal]

I really think yall are just struggling to adjust to having a president who can actually talk. Not what you’re used to.

[dwy000]

Just now, Gregmal said:

I really think yall are just struggling to adjust to having a president who can actually talk. Not what you’re used to.

This was intended to be a joke right?

[dwy000]

1 minute ago, 73 Reds said:

Wouldn't want to invest in any companies making long term decisions based on the last 2-3 weeks.

How do they not?  Companies need to make decisions on and daily basis.  If youre that homebuilder and you're leveraged, you can't just not make a decision (or.in fact that becomes the decision). 

[Longtermlens]

there it is. let her rip. 

[73 Reds]

6 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

How do they not?  Companies need to make decisions on and daily basis.  If youre that homebuilder and you're leveraged, you can't just not make a decision (or.in fact that becomes the decision). 

Management makes major, long term decisions with complete, or as near to complete data as there is.  Any decisions made now are emotional and not fact driven because the facts have yet to play out.   No one makes long term plans that can't be immediately changed during a state of flux.

Edited April 9, 2025 by 73 Reds
spelling

[villainx]

39 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

What did hanging on every word get anyone during Trump's first go round? 

 

Not following any news or social media, I'm getting 97% of my tariff/political news/analysis from this thread.  So far, working out ok, but also seems like very wild times we are in, or not.  

 

 

[dwy000]

8 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

That’s not how it works though. DR Horton(along with all the major builders) for instance has contractual takedowns covering a multi year span. They don’t have the option to just say “let’s hold up”. Why would they even risk defaulting on a contract and losing a key regional relationship over a few million bucks anyway?

Okay my detailed knowledge of JOE is limited so the direct analogy is limited.  But if you're a company thinking of moving to that region, a retailer thinking of building out a store or facility, a homebuilder looking for land opportunities, or even a family considering a move there, all of this can be paralyzing. For any company that is valued based on future cash flows (not current ones), time is the biggest variable. 

[Spekulatius]

28 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

He also ran on no-tax-on-tips.  But that one turns out to be the lie. 

The Ukraine war was supposed to be over before inauguration. Now it’s a tough problem.

[dwy000]

1 minute ago, 73 Reds said:

Management makes major, long term decisions with complete, or as near to complete data as there is.  Any decisions made now are emotional and not fact driven because the facts have yet to play out.   No one makes long term plans that can't be immediately changed during a state of flux.

Exactly!!! But if you're forced to make a decision now or lose the opportunity to competitors you can't just do nothing or that becomes your decision. 

[rogermunibond]

4 minutes ago, Longtermlens said:

there it is. let her rip. 

 

Blinked

[Spekulatius]

Now we have a 90day pause on tariffs. You can’t make this up.

 

I guess China called the bluff and now what?

[73 Reds]

2 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Exactly!!! But if you're forced to make a decision now or lose the opportunity to competitors you can't just do nothing or that becomes your decision. 

That's life in the business world.  We face unknowns every day, make necessary assumptions and deal with it as best we can.  This is no different.

[Blake Hampton]

In 2024, the United States imported approximately $440 billion in goods from China. A 125% tariff on all those goods is $550 billion, around $4,200 per U.S. household.

 

Edited April 9, 2025 by Blake Hampton

[Blake Hampton]

S&P 500 is up nearly 7%. Bananas.

[gfp]

1 minute ago, Blake Hampton said:

S&P 500 is up nearly 7%. Bananas.

 

See Blake - investing is fun!  

[Blake Hampton]

I'm convinced the S&P is the new meme stock.

[dwy000]

1 minute ago, Blake Hampton said:

S&P 500 is up nearly 7%. Bananas.

And we get to do it all over again in 90 days. 

 

Who wants to bet the admin released a preview to selected friends a couple of hours in advance?

[dealraker]

As was easily predictable, events now controlling Trump.  "Back and forth we go like two branches in a storm."  Maroon lyrics in tune Sunday Morning.

[Castanza]

8 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

S&P 500 is up nearly 7%. Bananas.

 

 

 

[Blake Hampton]

[Blake Hampton]

3 minutes ago, Castanza said:

 

 

The former Citigroup chief executive infamously said in July 2007, referring to the firm's leveraged lending practices: “When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing.”

- NYT

[dwy000]

43 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

In this scenario, Trump is the newbie who goes all in every hand.  That works really well against the short stacks and so-so hands.  But eventually you're gonna get called. And when you do it's because somebody has a monster.  China just called.  EU called.  Canada and Mexico called. 

Trump folded against everyone but raised the side bet with China.  I'm guessing China is going to call. 

[Paarslaars]

11 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

And we get to do it all over again in 90 days. 

 

Who wants to bet the admin released a preview to selected friends a couple of hours in advance?

90 days if you are lucky, could be tomorrow.

[villainx]

Ackman's tweet did it, that son of a gun!