Political Posts

[formthirteen]

26 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

And now we're approaching going circular. 

 

Yes, I thought so

[Sweet]

15 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Nobody will say it out loud, but these century bonds are designed to default. I think most countries are better off just accepting the tariffs and countering likewise with tariffs of their own

It will be a tough transition but eventually, the importance or the US market will be reduced as the US economy becomes insular and the tariffs wall leads to US products becoming less competitive. The US service industry will be forced by foreign nations to create independent  subsidies for national security reasons to continue to operate and have access to local markets. Thats similar to how defense business or utilities operate under foreign ownership in the US and elsewhere.

Probably not great environment for stocks, but if you think about the likely range of outcomes, you really want to own foreign assets obviously.

 

They aren’t designed to default, but in 100 years the idea is they would be quite small, both in terms of interest and redemption.  Only comparable thing I can think of is war debt from WW2.

[Xerxes]

2 hours ago, james22 said:

 

This used to be an entertaining game:

 

https://harpers.org/archive/1941/08/who-goes-nazi/

 

But now we know. Covid answered the question.

Thanks James. looks like a long read. So I need to read it carefully. 
 

I try not to use the word “nazi” in my posts, because of the negative connotation. That is how we as a society decided to go with post-1945. If Germans were our allies and Stalin our enemy in the 1940 (flip the geographical location of the two), our “baseline” bogeyman in arguments would be communists, and Churchill would be high fiving Hitler in Yalta.
 

Yaks ! But true 

Nationalism and populism can happen anywhere. We are ally susceptible to various degree. But I for one am aware of my weakness. Or is that strength. 

[John Hjorth]

How about a company issuing debt, due ~thousand years down the road, give or take, classifying it as equity? Can you guess the company? The existence of dumb bond investors seem evident.

 

 

 

[Ulti]

‘Green’ countries will get military protection and tariff relief, but must embrace a currency accord. 

I just wonder what type of shape our military will be in if this is the policy .. Currently: 

 

https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-24-107463

Military Readiness:Actions Needed for DOD to Address Challenges across the Air, Sea, Ground, and Space Domains

 

and with the anti DEI movement… difficulties recruiting as well as fighting multiple fronts as “ mercenaries “ for green countries… I suspect that there will be a lot less military personnel .

 

[Xerxes]

I wasn’t aware that by swapping into very long dated bonds, current holders of T-bonds, can help decrease the interest rate. 
 

Shouldn’t that be in reverse. The more liquid pool of assets should be more sought after. Thus lower rates. 

[John Hjorth]

1 minute ago, Xerxes said:

I wasn’t aware that by swapping into very long dated bonds, current holders of T-bonds, can help decrease the interest rate. 
 

Shouldn’t that be in reverse. The more liquid pool of assets should be more sought after. Thus lower rates. 

 

@Xerxes,

 

No real facts avaible about anything here. So just drop thinking about it. Waste of your time.

[Gregmal]

So is this something that’s been validated, or is it yet another media rumor that’s conveniently getting circulated and then analyzed in an attempt to make it a real thing? 

[RichardGibbons]

6 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I don’t think the USA providing protection is credible any more after what happened in  with Russia anyways. The US put Article 5 in question in a military alliance and now other countries should believe that they are protected because they signed some sort of trade deal? Thats just not credible.

 

Yep. At this point, the USA has blown up any credibility in making long-term deals. There's no value in a contract when one side can ignore the terms of the contract whenever it chooses.  The only deal that can be made with the USA is one where the benefits are received upfront.  Anything with any potential long-term negative consequences shouldn't be signed, and I think most world leaders are smart enough to recognize that.

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

The odds are -0- that Trump acquires Greenland.  The odds are slightly higher for the US.  Amazing how much attention this draws.

With Trump acquiring Greenland it means that Trump acquires it for the US. no, I don’t think that Trump could acquire a country as a personal property .

Quote

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US

It’s. 10c on the $ bet and I actually think I put some money being it because the odds are higher.

 

if anyone thinks that is ridicolous, then tell me why Trump keeps talking about it:

 

[John Hjorth]

54 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

So is this something that’s been validated, or is it yet another media rumor that’s conveniently getting circulated and then analyzed in an attempt to make it a real thing? 

 

Greg [ @Gregmal ],

 

No, not validated by anyone what so ever, It just happened that @whiskybravo above posted something, that fit the actual glove perfectly. What you get out of that is naturally for yourself to judge and decide.

[Parsad]

7 hours ago, james22 said:

 

Did a Center-right, pro-business Greenland party that favors independence from Denmark win the election?

 

Yes.

 

 

What betting has to do with your "criticism" is put a little skin in the game.

 

If you believe your take, take the bet. 

 

 

 

 

 

The funny thing is, center right governments don't want anything to do with Trump's policies...other than business.  In fact, it's unified parties from the left and right in most countries against Trump and the U.S.  It's definitely happened here...he's had the reverse psychological effect on what he was trying to achieve.  Pollivere, Carney and previously Trudeau, including all provincial Premiers have unified their voice.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

With Trump acquiring Greenland it means that Trump acquires it for the US. no, I don’t think that Trump could acquire a country as a personal property .

It’s. 10c on the $ bet and I actually think I put some money being it because the odds are higher.

 

if anyone thinks that is ridicolous, then tell me why Trump keeps talking about it:

 

 

I wouldn't put anything past this fucker!  It would bring a chill around NATO.  In fact, my money is on NATO not existing in its current form.  This piece of shit is trying to realign the entire planet, and if anyone causes WWIII, it will be him!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

Egg prices finally down...mainly due to lack of consumption!  Cheers!

 

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/egg-prices-drop-demand-sharply-204629737.html

[Stuart D]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

With Trump acquiring Greenland it means that Trump acquires it for the US. no, I don’t think that Trump could acquire a country as a personal property .

It’s. 10c on the $ bet and I actually think I put some money being it because the odds are higher.

 

if anyone thinks that is ridicolous, then tell me why Trump keeps talking about it:

 

Yeah, 10c is probably a good bet for it happening in the next 9-months. Though, my bias is always towards events taking longer than anticipated & I’d be more comfortable paying a bit more for extending the timeframe to eg 2028.

[Gregmal]

21 minutes ago, Parsad said:

Egg prices finally down...mainly due to lack of consumption!  Cheers!

 

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/egg-prices-drop-demand-sharply-204629737.html

I always marvel at the stupidity of these fake calamities. It’s hardly a crisis. If eggs cost too much, have something else FFS! A box of bran flakes is $3-4 and offers a weeks worth of breakfast. Oatmeal you can get a months supply for under $10. 

Edited March 16, 2025 by Gregmal

[james22]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

. . . parties from the left and right in most countries against Trump and the U.S.

 

That would mean something if any other country was doing as well.

[Spekulatius]

Well, there is an odd lots podcast about this, so it has been making the rounds in economist circles.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096?i=1000695795892

[Ulti]

https://www.thetimes.com/culture/books/article/michael-lewis-interview-big-short-who-government-0kp8ms5v6

[73 Reds]

14 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

With Trump acquiring Greenland it means that Trump acquires it for the US. no, I don’t think that Trump could acquire a country as a personal property .

It’s. 10c on the $ bet and I actually think I put some money being it because the odds are higher.

 

if anyone thinks that is ridicolous, then tell me why Trump keeps talking about it:

 

It's not ridiculous but what is ridiculous is any notion that the population of Greenland lacks self-determination.  If they should vote to become a possession of the US so be it.  The way the issue is portrayed by the media is that somehow the US will forcibly take over Greenland.  That is ridiculous and a sign of Trump derangement.  

[John Hjorth]

17 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

What I speculate most of Americans are luckily ignorant about, is that Greenland has its own 'oligarchs', who carefully stay out of the limelight, minding their own business [, almost Buffett-like]  :

 

Successfull fishermen, - very! - who - over many years - have continued to do, what they are really good at : Fishing!

 

Attached is a report from Copenhagen Ecomics [CE] about the economic footprint of fishery in Greenland, in both Danish and an English Google translation.

 

Some may say : 'old stuff, doesen't matter', but absolutely nothing has changed since the issuance of the report.

 

How do you think your bragging POTUS empty suit is perceived among those few men, of which some of them still meet in at the office in overalls before everyone else, to stay in control and check of everything?

 

Their productive assets aren't really grounded in the Grenlandic cliffs, they are floating entities [ships] in companies, which both can be moved anywhere by a fingers snap [ Iceland, Nova Scotia, whatever].

 

A public filing about change of residence, based on change of articles of association is what it takes. Even the most successful fisherman knows that there are things he should not think about, but leave to a lawyer in Nuuk.

 

Good luck to America annexing Greenland without these productive assets.

 

America will  eventually get back to Denmark, suggesting Denmark to take over join Greenland again, with a giant check attached.

 

In the mean time, welcome to the coldest hell hole with a population on earth, if this happens.

Fiskeriets-økonomiske-fodaftryk-i-Grønland - Danish - 20250315.pdf 2.09 MB · 2 downloads Fiskeriets-økonomiske-fodaftryk-i-Grønland - English - 20250315.pdf 2.41 MB · 2 downloads

 

For information, here is attached the latest available Annual Report for Polar Seafood, 2023 Annual Report.

 

Polar Seafood is mentioned as one of the initiators to that report I uploaded here yesterday about the footprint of fishery in Greenland.

 

Polar Seafood is the largest private business in Greenland.

 

Unfortunately the file is too big for Google Translate, so can't give it a spin to English translation. [For information, 7 DKK ~ 1 USD, give or take.]

 

Here is a photo of two guys running Polar Seafood taken in May 2023, when they took over after their fathers, the founders, raised to be eachother friends. Practical dress, no suits, no fuzz.

 

 

 

Polar Seafood - Annual Report 2023 - 20250315.pdf

[John Hjorth]

13 hours ago, Gregmal said:

I always marvel at the stupidity of these fake calamities. It’s hardly a crisis. If eggs cost too much, have something else FFS! A box of bran flakes is $3-4 and offers a weeks worth of breakfast. Oatmeal you can get a months supply for under $10. 

 

 Greg [ @Gregmal ],

 

I can't stop laughing!

 

It's so true what you posted.

 

But I think it all started going over board with POTUS [aka Egg-price-slayer  ] declaring war against egg price increases in his address to the Congress. 

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

AgriWatch - Agriculture [March 14^th 2025] : The US has asked Denmark for extra eggs [translated from Danish to English by Google Translate]

 

Please note :

 

Quote

... "Among other things, eggs in the US - both for consumption and egg products - must be washed, and we are not allowed to do that in the EU. I asked if that still applies, and they wanted to ask about that in Washington. They came back and asked how much we can deliver, and I have answered that," he says. ...

 

Now fast forward to chicken design, ref. Wikipedia, especially this :

 

Quote

... Sperm transfer occurs by cloacal contact between the male and female, in an action called the 'cloacal kiss'.[37] ...

 

Which again links to : Wikipedia : Cloaca, especially this :

 

Quote

... Mating through the cloaca is called cloacal copulation and cloacal kissing. ...

 

After this tiny lecture, I'm not sure at all there is any American demand for eggs from EU. 

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Why are American eggs washed and EU eggs unwashed? :

 

This is due to the regulations concerning salmonella. Chickens in Europe are vaccinated against salmonella, so you do not need to wash the eggs. However, in the US, chickens are not vaccinated. Therefore egg washing is mandatory. [Also ref. post above by @Spekulatius ].

[james22]

20 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Even the most successful fisherman knows that there are things he should not think about, but leave to a lawyer in Nuuk.

 

“You spent seven years learning every little nuance of the fishing trade before you were granted the gift of learning from this great captain?” I ask.

 

“Yes.”

 

“And even then you had to sit at the feet of this great master for many months before you felt as if you knew what you were doing?”

 

“Yes.”

 

“Then why did you think you could become a banker and speculate in Financial markets, without a day of training?”

 

https://archive.vanityfair.com/article/2009/4/wall-street-on-the-tundra

[John Hjorth]

16 minutes ago, james22 said:

“You spent seven years learning every little nuance of the fishing trade before you were granted the gift of learning from this great captain?” I ask.

 

“Yes.”

 

“And even then you had to sit at the feet of this great master for many months before you felt as if you knew what you were doing?”

 

“Yes.”

 

“Then why did you think you could become a banker and speculate in Financial markets, without a day of training?”

 

https://archive.vanityfair.com/article/2009/4/wall-street-on-the-tundra

 

James [ @james22 ],

 

Why are you bringing Iceland into this discussion?

 

-Iceland isen't Greenland. Please look up a map!

 

-Should we also continue by bringing into this discussion the madness the Faroe Islands' 'drill, baby, drill!', by drilling tunnels between the islands, while suddenly, all the fish around the islands left, because waters around the Faroe Islands got warmer?

[rogermunibond]

Go to Spookys first post. There is a link to a paper by Stephen Miran, incoming Chair of the CEA

 

That is the originating white paper for this idea.  Bessent has referenced it repeatedly.