Political Posts

[dwy000]

6 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

How about we have this same discussion after a year, when Elon & Co. will have had time to uncover what you or others may consider to be serious amounts of waste?  He is just getting started.  What truly is baffling is any suggestion that there is not massive amounts of waste, abuse and fraud in government spending.  Would you rather he merely poke around the edges?  Does anyone truly believe that deficits can continue to grow indefinitely without consequences or taxing people to oblivion?

I don't think anyone is suggesting there isnt massive amounts of waste in government spend (just like most large corporates).  The question is more how best to deal with it.  Sending 20 year olds in who literally have no idea what the people there do and cutting entire departments will ultimately create more chaos and harm than savings.  Working with those departments to figure out how best to lop 10-20% of spend over the next 2 years is much more effective than culling half the group and waiting to see what breaks.

 

Even more head scratching is why, after going thru whatever necessary process to reduce spend to get a soaring debt in hand, you would turn around and give all that away in tax cuts. It seems to defeat the purpose. 

[cubsfan]

5 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Posting this - primarily for our American friends here on CofB&F - just to show how European sentiment is in motion by now, - from Kyiv, yesterday :

 

 

 

 

That's a wonderful clip. All I learned is that European leadership has finally woken up, which was necessary 2 years ago when the war started to look like a stalemate. Much of this carnage may have been avoided - at a huge cost to Ukraine. But facing reality 2 years latter has been extremely costly.

 

Nice clip

[73 Reds]

1 minute ago, dwy000 said:

I don't think anyone is suggesting there isnt massive amounts of waste in government spend (just like most large corporates).  The question is more how best to deal with it.  Sending 20 year olds in who literally have no idea what the people there do and cutting entire departments will ultimately create more chaos and harm than savings.  Working with those departments to figure out how best to lop 10-20% of spend over the next 2 years is much more effective than culling half the group and waiting to see what breaks.

 

Even more head scratching is why, after going thru whatever necessary process to reduce spend to get a soaring debt in hand, you would turn around and give all that away in tax cuts. It seems to defeat the purpose. 

You're bringing politics into the mix which is not relevant to the issue of govt. waste.  Until a month ago, nothing has been done.  Now we are engaged.  As I suggested to another poster, bring on any challenges.  The issues will be sorted out and hopefully compromise will prevail.  The status quo was unacceptable.  At least someone is making an effort.  The fact that you, or anyone does not like specific proposed cuts has nothing to do with the larger issue which few folks who are complaining want to address.

[james22]

15 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

I don't think anyone is suggesting there isnt massive amounts of waste in government spend (just like most large corporates).  The question is more how best to deal with it.

 

Move Fast and Break Things

[lnofeisone]

5 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

You're bringing politics into the mix which is not relevant to the issue of govt. waste.  Until a month ago, nothing has been done.  Now we are engaged.  As I suggested to another poster, bring on any challenges.  The issues will be sorted out and hopefully compromise will prevail.  The status quo was unacceptable.  At least someone is making an effort.  The fact that you, or anyone does not like specific proposed cuts has nothing to do with the larger issue which few folks who are complaining want to address.

Do you work in Gov't to say things like "Until a month ago, nothing has been done?" From my days in Gov't contracting, I 100% disagree. I dreaded getting TIGTA audits and went through a couple. 

 

But let's table this discussion and see where Elon comes out at the end of this. I just want to set the parameters clear: 1) can't complain when he gets fired that he wasn't allowed to finish his job 2) we'll tally up total savings and add all the extra expenses that I think will come because of his actions 3) we'll take into account any economic growth/contraction that will likely precipitate from this 4) though some of this isn't going to be on Elon, let's see what our debt is on the day Elon is done. 

 

Let's stay objective, numbers only. No politics. 

[dwy000]

3 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

Move Fast and Break Things

That's a great philosophy for a software company.  Not so much when providing healthcare, retirement income, national defense, world diplomacy, etc.  

[james22]

6 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

That's a great philosophy for a software company.  Not so much when providing healthcare, retirement income, national defense, world diplomacy, etc.  

 

How's that worked out?

[73 Reds]

6 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

Do you work in Gov't to say things like "Until a month ago, nothing has been done?" From my days in Gov't contracting, I 100% disagree. I dreaded getting TIGTA audits and went through a couple. 

 

But let's table this discussion and see where Elon comes out at the end of this. I just want to set the parameters clear: 1) can't complain when he gets fired that he wasn't allowed to finish his job 2) we'll tally up total savings and add all the extra expenses that I think will come because of his actions 3) we'll take into account any economic growth/contraction that will likely precipitate from this 4) though some of this isn't going to be on Elon, let's see what our debt is on the day Elon is done. 

 

Let's stay objective, numbers only. No politics. 

Until a month ago the proverbial can was being kicked down the road.  Again, not speaking to specific govt. contracts, agencies or individuals, but rather the larger picture of trying to address the low-hanging fruit if you will, which no one was even making an effort to identify. 

[cubsfan]

4 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

That's a great philosophy for a software company.  Not so much when providing healthcare, retirement income, national defense, world diplomacy, etc.  

 

It's a great philosophy when you are dealing with corruption and unaccountable bureaucracy.

And exactly why this adminstration was voted in. 

[Gregmal]

See this is the larger problem with why the government cockroach problem will never be solved. There's no perfect solution, but it needs to stop growing. And even when people admirably take on this task, there's still all these obstructionists. Is there an orderly way to do it? Probably. But guess what, there's also orderly ways to build roads and bridges and the government has clearly demonstrated they can't even do that stuff efficiently either. 

[John Hjorth]

28 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

That's a wonderful clip. All I learned is that European leadership has finally woken up, which was necessary 2 years ago when the war started to look like a stalemate. Much of this carnage may have been avoided - at a huge cost to Ukraine. But facing reality 2 years latter has been extremely costly.

 

Nice clip

 

We [the US and Europe] need to get along, Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

It's actually that simple. Everything else will provide nothing but chaos and armageddon. Europe reaction late, sure, but not too late, by  now.

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, John Hjorth said:

 

We [the US and Europe] need to get along, Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

It's actually that simple. Everything else will provide nothing but chaos and armageddon. Europe reaction late, sure, but not too late, by  now.

 

I have never disputed that. Such is the nature of negotiation and compromise. 

No one is happy.

[james22]

On 2/24/2025 at 8:59 AM, james22 said:

 

 

This isn't a partisan issue.

 

Both parties have tried and failed to reign in the bureaucracies.

 

 

For more than a century, even dating back to 1883, the civil service has grown and grown without check from the elected branch, either the presidency or the legislature . The bureaucracies have ballooned from a few to 450 or so. The bloat and absurdities have grown too.

 

Get this: no one has ever known what to do about it. Not Coolidge, not Hoover, not Nixon, not Reagan, not Clinton, no one. No president has been able to crack this nut. The only reforms ever to have made it through are those that make the administrative state bigger, never smaller. Countless cabinet secretaries have come and gone, always with the intention of making a change but leaving saddened, demoralized, outwitted, outgunned, and ultimately devoured.

 

No president has seriously taken on this problem because they simply did not know how. The unions are powerful, the intimidation from the deep institutional knowledge is overwhelming, the fear of the media as been powerful, and every single president comes to power vaguely feeling threatened by the intelligence agencies. The industries that have captured every single agency were also far too powerful to unseat or control.

 

This combination of institutional inertia has blocked serious reform for a full century. No one has dared. No one has even had a theory or strategy about what to do about this problem. It had become so terrible that most people in politics have simply surrendered, like homeowners who know there are rats in the basement and bats in the attic but long ago gave up trying to fix the issue.

 

But reformers are now no longer dependent upon the bureaucracies to provide information.

 

 

 

[Gregmal]

Yup. And therein lies the issue. Ask most Americans, and all these "agencies" are totally useless when you go out and seek their assistance. But more often than not, when you want to do something or be left alone, then they show up and start making your life more difficult. Not how it's supposed to work. 

[cubsfan]

^^^ Bingo!!!    The Republicans have been just as guilty!  Non-partisan issue.

 

That's why the populist defeated the encumbent Republican Party.

 

Citizens are sick of both parties doing absolutely nothing. 

[Gregmal]

Ever want to see this problem at its infant state, just look at how HOAs work. They generally start small and benevolent. Purpose seems simple enough, to protect homeowners. Over time the boards get cluttered with egomaniacs and people whom seek something personally satisfying from the position. And before you know it, they exist to basically bully homeowners and curry favor for

those entrenched.
 

I’m completely unaware of any important government agency where people are working for free, so right off the bat, Elons got more respect in his endeavor here than we should grant those at the bloated agencies he’s working to make redundant. 

[lnofeisone]

9 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I’m completely unaware of any important government agency where people are working for free, so right off the bat, Elons got more respect in his endeavor here than we should grant those at the bloated agencies he’s working to make redundant. 

Elon is the only one not getting paid. The rest of DOGE is paid. 

[lnofeisone]

50 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

This isn't a partisan issue.

 

Both parties have tried and failed to reign in the bureaucracies.

 

 

For more than a century, even dating back to 1883, the civil service has grown and grown without check from the elected branch, either the presidency or the legislature . The bureaucracies have ballooned from a few to 450 or so. The bloat and absurdities have grown too.

 

What a terrible analysis. Population also grew from 1883 so did the GDP. What are the ratios of population:civ. work force or GDP: salary of civ. workers. 

 

The right is so fixated on civ. workers being bad and then somehow conflate it waste and fraud. The civ. workers for the right is like TDS for the left. The right can't point to fraud or waste in meaningful numbers (we are plying this game of "let's see what Elon will do") and the left card blanche thinks everything Trump does is bad. In the end, we all will have a terrible time. 

[Fundmanagerthrwawy]

I can't believe that President Krasnov has just voted with Russia to drive through the Ukraine war measure. Disgusting. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

3 hours ago, dwy000 said:

That's a great philosophy for a software company.  Not so much when providing healthcare, retirement income, national defense, world diplomacy, etc.  

 

Or full self driving. 

 

Yet here we are. 

[treasurehunt]

3 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

Do you work in Gov't to say things like "Until a month ago, nothing has been done?" From my days in Gov't contracting, I 100% disagree. I dreaded getting TIGTA audits and went through a couple. 

 

But let's table this discussion and see where Elon comes out at the end of this. I just want to set the parameters clear: 1) can't complain when he gets fired that he wasn't allowed to finish his job 2) we'll tally up total savings and add all the extra expenses that I think will come because of his actions 3) we'll take into account any economic growth/contraction that will likely precipitate from this 4) though some of this isn't going to be on Elon, let's see what our debt is on the day Elon is done. 

 

Let's stay objective, numbers only. No politics. 

 

I really like this idea. There will probably still be gray areas and room for different interpretations, but at least this is an attempt at an objective analysis. There seems to be this view that government bureaucracy is so bad that doing something - anything - can only be an improvement, regardless of what this something is. I disagree. Having lived in another country for a good part of my life, I can assure you that government bureaucracy could be much worse. So it is important to examine the actions that are being taken to make government more efficient and the consequences of these actions.

[Spooky]

I have been reading and hearing a bunch of chatter about the "Mar-a-Lago Accords" and wanted to start a new thread to discuss the economic implications of it. At a high level it is calling for re-writing the rules of the international monetary and financial system similar to the Plaza Accord in the 80s. Thinking through these kind of financial systems issues is definitely not my strong suit so I'm hoping smarter people than me can help us figure out what is going on. I'm also hoping we can steer clear of the political side of this and just focus on the economic side and actual developments - can something like this work and what would be the implications for our investments?

 

Here is a paper written by Miran, the nominee for Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, when he was a strategist at Hudson Bay Capital: https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf

 

Article in the FT: https://www.ft.com/content/1e19165e-1096-4aad-bf08-42132f7a3239

 

Latest Odd-lots podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HI0I7zFcfZo

 

A key pillar of the approach seems to be trying to significantly weaken the USD.

 

Edited February 25, 2025 by Spooky

[rogermunibond]

Weaken USD

 

Overall I like the idea as laid out by Jim Bianco to reduce US defense spend as a % of GDP and have European nations raise their share as % of GDP to 5% ish.

 

 

[cubsfan]

44 minutes ago, treasurehunt said:

 

I really like this idea. There will probably still be gray areas and room for different interpretations, but at least this is an attempt at an objective analysis. There seems to be this view that government bureaucracy is so bad that doing something - anything - can only be an improvement, regardless of what this something is. I disagree. Having lived in another country for a good part of my life, I can assure you that government bureaucracy could be much worse. So it is important to examine the actions that are being taken to make government more efficient and the consequences of these actions.

 

You are right on.

[John Hjorth]

The mere existence here on CofB&F of the topic US franchises at risk to me, personally, & in the end, and eventually : Prevails the developments of the future to the better.