Political Posts

[Xerxes]

I should add:  paradoxically, perhaps that it why Putin would never be able re-assemble the Soviet empire.
 

Russia, Ukraine and Belorussia were the pillars of the Soviet Union, with the first two being major pillars. 
 

Without Ukraine willing participation in Soviet Union 2.0 project, it would never be. USSR 1.0 would be nothing without Ukraine. 

 

What people get wrong is that, despite all the bravado from Putin about resurrecting USSR, what he really clamours for is the Tsarist empire, where the Russian stock held supreme. But no one wants that. So he talks about USSR and the nostalgia. 

Edited August 3, 2023 by Xerxes

[Gregmal]

I just recall how ironic it is that when Trump was in office and actively making peace efforts in North Korea, China and Russia, while also asking the freeloaders in Canada and Europe to pay up, folks whined and cried and idk what else but he hurt their feelings or something. The second Biden comes in we gets wars and constant escalations and oh! Now it’s uncomfortable….

[Xerxes]

31 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I just recall how ironic it is that when Trump was in office and actively making peace efforts in North Korea, China and Russia, while also asking the freeloaders in Canada and Europe to pay up, folks whined and cried and idk what else but he hurt their feelings or something. The second Biden comes in we gets wars and constant escalations and oh! Now it’s uncomfortable….

Canada contributed to NATO 2% target by contributing 1% + a bit of Justin on the top to make up for it

 

Even Steven 

[ValueArb]

From WaPo today. I can only see the chart cause I’m a cheapskate but it’s pretty shocking. Ukraine aid is roughly  1/2 of 1% of all US federal spending the last 17 months, and a lot of that is in nearly obsolete equipment. If US voters think that is too much to nearly demilitarize Russia, the future really is dim.

Esposa article on US Ukraine spending

 

[John Hjorth]

On 8/3/2023 at 8:29 PM, Gregmal said:

I just recall how ironic it is that when Trump was in office and actively making peace efforts in North Korea, China and Russia, while also asking the freeloaders in Canada and Europe to pay up, folks whined and cried and idk what else but he hurt their feelings or something. The second Biden comes in we gets wars and constant escalations and oh! Now it’s uncomfortable….

 

On 8/3/2023 at 9:01 PM, Xerxes said:

Canada contributed to NATO 2% target by contributing 1% + a bit of Justin on the top to make up for it

 

Even Steven 

 

24 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

From WaPo today. I can only see the chart cause I’m a cheapskate but it’s pretty shocking. Ukraine aid is roughly  1/2 of 1% of all US federal spending the last 17 months, and a lot of that is in nearly obsolete equipment. If US voters think that is too much to nearly demilitarize Russia, the future really is dim.

Esposa article on US Ukraine spending

 

 

Personally, I think the odd [odd to you] fact here may be, that you gents @Gregmal, @Xerxes & @ValueArb are all right, but none of you need to feel embarrassed or to keep your heads low about this friggin' mess.

 

We European citizens simply need to get our act together and participate in an orderly manner to resolve this issue, whatever it takes. If we fail, it's unfortunately on you to assist cleaning up this mess, because It's eventually and basically about your way of life, too.

 

 

[cubsfan]

24 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

 

 

Personally, I think the odd [odd to you] fact here may be, that you gents @Gregmal, @Xerxes & @ValueArb are all right, but none of you need to feel embarrassed or to keep your heads low about this friggin' mess.

 

We European citizens simply need to get our act together and participate in an orderly manner to resolve this issue, whatever it takes. If we fail, it's unfortunately on you to assist cleaning up this mess, because It's eventually and basically about your way of life, too.

 

 

Europe will get called on soon enough when President Xi does his Putin imitation…

 

Until these aggressors get put back in their box, it’s money we’ll spent.

Edited August 4, 2023 by cubsfan

[Ulti]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/end-china-economic-miracle-beijing-washington

[Xerxes]

 

Unrelated the last Koffman podcast on War on the Rock was pretty good. The last few ones didn’t say much, I guess as situation was evolving. 

 

[ValueArb]

Looks like the UK will be forced to pull out of the coalition and stop helping Ukraine, because they have given so much aid that they are starving and reduced to eating squirrels.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-tv-skabayeva-uk-reduced-eating-squirrels-ukraine-military-aid-2023-3

[Spekulatius]

8 hours ago, ValueArb said:

Looks like the UK will be forced to pull out of the coalition and stop helping Ukraine, because they have given so much aid that they are starving and reduced to eating squirrels.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-tv-skabayeva-uk-reduced-eating-squirrels-ukraine-military-aid-2023-3

According to some hunters I have met, squirrels don’t taste too bad. It’s probably better than what most Russians are eating , if done right.

https://www.wildmeat.co.uk/blogs/news/squirrel-why-everyone-should-try-it#:~:text=Squirrel tastes like a subtler,recommend allowing one per person.

Edited August 8, 2023 by Spekulatius

[lnofeisone]

10 hours ago, ValueArb said:

Looks like the UK will be forced to pull out of the coalition and stop helping Ukraine, because they have given so much aid that they are starving and reduced to eating squirrels.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-tv-skabayeva-uk-reduced-eating-squirrels-ukraine-military-aid-2023-3

It's a bad translation compounded by her conflation of another event [UK project to reduce number of gray squirrels].

[Luke]

 

 

 

Great Watch, highly recommended!

 

Brutal and with good commentary. 

[Luke]

*Posted into the Taiwan thread

Edited August 8, 2023 by Luca

[John Hjorth]

Ridiculous / hilarious assertion!  [So much *BS* everywhere about this calamity!]

[UK]

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-require-all-apps-share-business-details-new-oversight-push-2023-08-09/

 

A lot of "regulations are over" promises recently, yet almost every week there is some kind of new announcement.

[Luke]

The new rule is primarily aimed at combating online fraud but it will impact on all apps in China, he said.

 

I don't think regulations will ever be over, will just continue to be monitored and interfered with. China is now tight on track with their regulation of tech etc.

[Parsad]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-consumer-prices-swing-decline-014520524.html

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-deflation-beijing-private-sector-ba37b49b?siteid=yhoof2

 

We're starting to see what was supposed to happen years ago.  Governments can't manipulate fiscal/monetary policy limitlessly and debt accumulation will have some consequence.  And not just for China!  Cheers!

[maplevalue]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-consumer-prices-swing-decline-014520524.html

 

https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-deflation-beijing-private-sector-ba37b49b?siteid=yhoof2

 

We're starting to see what was supposed to happen years ago.  Governments can't manipulate fiscal/monetary policy limitlessly and debt accumulation will have some consequence.  And not just for China!  Cheers!

I think the more recent lesson is that deflation is a very solvable problem (see what the experience of the US was printing money and giving it directly to people). 
 

China knows the playbook of deflation gets entrenched. I think it’s reasonable to expect they do helicopter money soon. 

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, maplevalue said:

I think the more recent lesson is that deflation is a very solvable problem (see what the experience of the US was printing money and giving it directly to people). 
 

China knows the playbook of deflation gets entrenched. I think it’s reasonable to expect they do helicopter money soon. 

 

Is it solvable or is it a delay tactic? 

 

Look at Japan...250%+ debt to GDP.  In an environment were rates are rising and the Bank of Japan owns 43% of that debt!  It's a ponzi!  A very long-play ponzi.

 

When the dam busts, it ain't going to be pretty!  

 

Cheers!

[Cigarbutt]

21 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Is it solvable or is it a delay tactic? 

Look at Japan...250%+ debt to GDP.  In an environment were rates are rising and the Bank of Japan owns 43% of that debt!  It's a ponzi!  A very long-play ponzi.

When the dam busts, it ain't going to be pretty!  

Cheers!

1-Factual aspect for Japan (Japan's course of monetary events is fascinating)

From Flow of Funds data released by BOJ, end Q4 2022):

Not that it terribly matters (43% vs 52%) and an interim report (end Q1 2023) mentions north of 53% but then it's become hard to guess when non-linear changes will occur (recent trend in exchange rates?)

2-Link to China?

The debt intensity concept (more and more debt necessary to 'produce' a unit of GDP) has been developing in developed and developing nations for some time, including in China, in a big way, and, more recently, some sources suggest that progressively higher levels of capital are necessary to 'produce' a unit of GDP:

 

 

[Parsad]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asias-once-richest-woman-lost-115702519.html

 

And I thought Elon lost a bundle with the Twitter purchase!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

All these Chinese hedge funds are going to have to liquidate their portfolios where possible as they shutter!  Cheers!

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/thousands-tiny-hedge-funds-face-000000949.html

[tnp20]

 

BofA does not think its not a balance sheet recession ...its a growth recession. Their case is compelling.

 

Different disease requires different (policy) prescription.

 

china5.pdf

[tnp20]

1 hour ago, Parsad said:

All these Chinese hedge funds are going to have to liquidate their portfolios where possible as they shutter!  Cheers!

 

My bess guess is the impact of this is less than $100B...and if its hedged... it may be a muted impact as longs and shorts are closed.

 

There have been lot of market structure changes in the last few years - nearly all have been positive with a view that they are setting this up for the stock market to be the new (safer) vehicle where Chinese money goes ....instead of housing. As with housing, the runway for stock could be both long and epic (bubble culmination). Realistically, china's long term GDP growth potential is closer to 4% with shorter burst rates of up to 5-6% but with low deposit and bond rates and housing not a good option, stock market seems like a good alternative. 3-4% sustained is still a pretty good rate for the market to do well.

 

 

 

Edited August 11, 2023 by tnp20

[Luke]

2 hours ago, Haryana said:

Apparently most Western media houses have always been weapons of colonialism and expansionism to world domination.

 

Worth to think about: 

 

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9781137028303_3

 

Ha-Joon Chang enlists economic history to mount a provocative critique of the “Washington Consensus” — the standard set of policy recommendations that aim to promote economic development in poor countries. According to the consensus, developing countries should adopt a set of “good policies” and “good institutions” to improve their economic performance. The good policies include stable macroeconomic policies, a liberal trade and investment regime, and privatization and deregulation. The good institutions include democratic government, protection of property rights (including intellectual property), an independent central bank, and transparent corporate governance institutions and financial establishments. These policies have been embraced by the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and many mainstream economists, hence the term Washington Consensus.

 

Chang highlights the paradox that many of today’s high income countries did not pursue such policies when they were climbing the economic ladder of success in the nineteenth century. Rather, these countries implemented high tariffs and sectoral industrial policies, lagged in the introduction of democratic reforms, stole industrial technologies from one another, did not have independent central banks, and so forth. Therefore, in Chang’s view, developed countries are hypocritical when they seek to deny developing countries access to these same policy tools and when they urge them to adopt democratic reforms and protect intellectual property.

 

Chang, who is Assistant Director of Development Studies at the University of Cambridge (UK), divides his slim book into four chapters. Each chapter focuses on the policies pursued a century ago by the leading rich countries of today (Britain, United States, Germany, Japan, and other European countries) and compares those policies to the ones that developing countries are urged to adopt the Washington Consensus. Chapter One introduces the book and asks “How Did the Rich Countries Really Become Rich?” Chapter Two looks at trade and industrial policies designed to allow developing countries to “catch up” with industrial countries. Chapter Three focuses on institutions and good governance. Chapter Four concludes with lessons from the past.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ha-Joon_Chang

Edited August 12, 2023 by Luca