Political Posts

[ValueArb]

20 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Hey - you forgot the biggest disaster which is the southern border.

 

We’ll protect the Ukraine and Canada border - but not the Mexican!

 

But the answer to your question: it’s happening because of corrupt leadership that is setting the USA back for years - while they enrich themselves at the expense of the citizens. Just as Obama, Hillary and Hunter.

 

50 years ago our southern border was completely undefended. Every year millions of mexican workers would migrate up to work on our farms, leaving their wives and families behind. Once harvesting was over, every year they'd head back to their villages in Mexico for half the year and live far better than their neighbors who didn't do migrant work. It was called circular migration and it worked great for the US and Mexico.

 

Then we started to fence and guard the border, making it much harder for them to count on getting back in if they went home. So they started bringing their wives and their kids and staying permanently in the US.  The result is called unintended consequences.

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, ValueArb said:

 

50 years ago our southern border was completely undefended. Every year millions of mexican workers would migrate up to work on our farms, leaving their wives and families behind. Once harvesting was over, every year they'd head back to their villages in Mexico for half the year and live far better than their neighbors who didn't do migrant work. It was called circular migration and it worked great for the US and Mexico.

 

Then we started to fence and guard the border, making it much harder for them to count on getting back in if they went home. So they started bringing their wives and their kids and staying permanently in the US.  The result is called unintended consequences.

Not really. The difference is , they are coming and staying, specifically for the social services of an increasing welfare state. Why go back to Mexico when you can have schools, health care, hospitals for nothing?

 

The USA is an escape valve for a hugely corrupt Mexican government that refuses to take any care of their poor. Mexico willingly exports their poor to the good old USA while the cartels and corrupt government gets rich.

 

And actually the worst part about the whole situation is 100,000 fentanyl dead USA citizens courtesy of Mexican cartels supplied by China.

 

And we worry about combat deaths in Afghanistan….

[Fundmanagerthrwawy]

2 hours ago, james22 said:

 

Never suggested that.

 

And for those with existing networks, it'd probably be silly to leave them for elsewhere.

No, not saying you did. Just a lot of people do. At least in my conversations with US based businessmen and women.

[Parsad]

10 hours ago, Fundmanagerthrwawy said:

Exactly. The idea that the US is the only place to start a successful company is strange. I’d prefer to HQ in Europe as I believe there’s a better quality of life, better for travelling, and less stressful. That’s no slight on the US I love visiting I just don’t think it would be a good place for me to live and work long term. And there’s people who think the opposite and that’s fine. 

 

Especially if you are not looking for huge funding.  Companies that are cash flow positive out of the gate, can make it anywhere if they are well managed and develop their customer base.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

3 hours ago, james22 said:

 

Easy to make progress when starting from zero (because of the previous central planning policies).

 

It's never easy.  It wasn't easy for the U.S. for the first 120 years when they started from zero...and there was no difference in policy or central planning.  In fact, they abolished the only economic advantage they did have at the time...slavery!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

3 hours ago, james22 said:

 

Sure. But one's chance of success is greater in the US than elsewhere (easier access to networks, money, talent, customers).

 

Not true at all.  Especially in this day and age.  Money will come to where you are if you are a successful, profitable business.  

 

Some people will probably argue that the amount of competition for capital in the U.S. is making it harder for startups.  The ecosystem is extremely fruitful, but the amount of eggs maturing is getting smaller and dominated by giants.  

 

A number of countries are now on par or ahead of the U.S. in terms of startups on a per capita basis...Israel is the world leader now, ahead of the U.S.  Germany, Britain, Netherlands...all are approaching or about to surpass the United States in terms of startups per capita.  In terms of per capita funding for startups, Singapore and Israel now lead the world.

 

US is still up there and will be for decades to come, but technology is making the world more competitive and efficient.  Cheers!

[ValueArb]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Not really. The difference is , they are coming and staying, specifically for the social services of an increasing welfare state. Why go back to Mexico when you can have schools, health care, hospitals for nothing?

 

The USA is an escape valve for a hugely corrupt Mexican government that refuses to take any care of their poor. Mexico willingly exports their poor to the good old USA while the cartels and corrupt government gets rich.

 

And actually the worst part about the whole situation is 100,000 fentanyl dead USA citizens courtesy of Mexican cartels supplied by China.

 

And we worry about combat deaths in Afghanistan….

 

Circular migration was extensively studied and documented over the 70s and 80s. The reason most would not stay here is they didn't want to uproot their families, there are schools, healthcare and hospitals in mexico too that are far cheaper.

 

Fentanyl is a product of the "success" of the war on drugs. It's a cheap substitute that can be cut into other drugs when they are hard to get. Its so potent its easy to OD on, if we really cared about overdoses we wouldn't push drugs onto the black market where no one knows what they are really taking, instead we'd demand they are packaged by legitimate companies so drug users know exactly how much is in the dose. No different than bathtub gin killing hundreds of thousands during the Prohibition.

 

And if it wasn't coming from Mexico it would be coming from Canada, the UK, Caribbean, south america, etc. The problem with illegal drugs isn't the suppliers, its the users. When demand is this high, black market drugs are so massively lucrative that knocking out one supplier just creates an opportunity for two more to sprout up.

[cubsfan]

That’s a very romanticized version of Mexico - a country run by a corrupt government in the back pocket of murdering drug cartels. Our greatest enemy has to be Mexico followed by China.

 

Yeah, we really don’t need a border…

 

We lose 100,000 citizens a year to fentanyl- 2X what we lost during the Vietnam war - so that Mexico and China can line their pockets.

 

There is no bigger problem in our country today than organized crime from Mexico killing our young people.

Mexico makes the Mafia look like a street gang.

Edited August 17, 2023 by cubsfan

[mcliu]

21 hours ago, ValueArb said:

Most of our military aid to Ukraine is obsolete equipment we never planned to use pulled from long term storage depots. The idea they are actually worth the billions we’ve claimed is suspect. Even if they are the $50B or so we’ve doled out so far is roughly 0.5% of total federal spending since the war started.

 

There is no either or scenario here.

$100B here, $100B there, and soon your country is $33T in debt.  

Don't forget, it's not only military aid, the West is also funding Ukrainian government expenditures and essentially keeping the whole country afloat..

 

My gripe with your border is that if Mexicans can cross freely into the US, Canadian should be able to do the same. The lines at the Can-US crossings are long and annoying!

[mcliu]

6 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Hey - you forgot the biggest disaster which is the southern border.

 

We’ll protect the Ukraine and Canada border - but not the Mexican!

 

But the answer to your question: it’s happening because of corrupt leadership that is setting the USA back for years - while they enrich themselves at the expense of the citizens. Just as Obama, Hillary and Hunter.

Same issues in Canada. The leadership here has given up on fixing the real problems (housing, healthcare, drugs, poverty, education, infrastructure) and instead just distracts everyone with "social issues". 

Edited August 17, 2023 by mcliu

[crs223]

On 8/15/2023 at 2:27 AM, UK said:

And in order to succeed just beeing contrarian is not enought.

 

I’ve never heard this, and I’ll never forget it… thank you.

[UK]

Again, a lot of focus is on what China does, with a hope that, to borrow from Tencents presentation, maybe Xi/CCP will one day "complete self-inspection and corresponding rectification" (funny line from page 14, isnt it?).

 

However, in this whole situation China is not the only actor and it seems things are going to the wrong direction, with US and Taiwan elections on the horizon.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/camp-david-summit-to-unite-u-s-south-korea-japan-c9cad067?mod=hp_lead_pos10

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-08-15/meet-the-man-who-may-be-the-next-to-lead-taiwan

[UK]

6 hours ago, crs223 said:

 

I’ve never heard this, and I’ll never forget it… thank you.

 

https://acquirersmultiple.com/2017/10/michael-steinhardt-being-contrarian-is-not-enough-you-have-to-be-right/

[Luke]

6 hours ago, crs223 said:

 

I’ve never heard this, and I’ll never forget it… thank you.

That statement is certainly true, It's not only about being contrarian here but about the probability of positive development over the long term, which I think is certainly more likely than a return to a system that has not worked before. On top comes that many people exited these markets which creates additional value. 

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-16/china-s-housing-slump-is-much-worse-than-official-data-shows#xj4y7vzkg

[ValueArb]

12 hours ago, mcliu said:

$100B here, $100B there, and soon your country is $33T in debt.  

Don't forget, it's not only military aid, the West is also funding Ukrainian government expenditures and essentially keeping the whole country afloat..

 

My gripe with your border is that if Mexicans can cross freely into the US, Canadian should be able to do the same. The lines at the Can-US crossings are long and annoying!

Even $100B is a tiny fraction of federal spending since the war started. And for a much better cause than a large amount of federal spending, I’d happily cancel the SLS and Orion capsule for money would go to Ukraine.

[Saluki]

13 hours ago, mcliu said:

My gripe with your border is that if Mexicans can cross freely into the US, Canadian should be able to do the same. The lines at the Can-US crossings are long and annoying!

 

The lines are much worse at the US/Mexican border crossing.  If by "freely", you mean going across some section of unguarded border, you a free to try to swim Lake Michigan or drive from Calgary towards the border and attempt a mountain crossing on foot.  I should warn you, the amount of people who die trying to cross the desert into the US to avoid the manned borders is not small. Maybe swimming Lake Michigan would have a higher survival rate, who knows? 

[cubsfan]

^^^ The difference is if you cross the border illegally into the USA from Canada- you are NOT allowed to stay in the USA - you are immediately removed from the country.

 

I’d much rather have thousands of illegal Canadians here with skills than millions of destitute poor mixed with criminals destroying our country.

Edited August 17, 2023 by cubsfan

[Ulti]

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/why-is-china-not-rushing-fix-its-ailing-economy-2023-08-17/

[mcliu]

1 hour ago, Saluki said:

 

The lines are much worse at the US/Mexican border crossing.  If by "freely", you mean going across some section of unguarded border, you a free to try to swim Lake Michigan or drive from Calgary towards the border and attempt a mountain crossing on foot.  I should warn you, the amount of people who die trying to cross the desert into the US to avoid the manned borders is not small. Maybe swimming Lake Michigan would have a higher survival rate, who knows? 

I think ValueArb suggested that having open borders with Mexico was a better solution since it promoted circular migration. I'm just saying, if it's possible with Mexico, it should be possible with Canada.

 

 

[mcliu]

2 hours ago, ValueArb said:

Even $100B is a tiny fraction of federal spending since the war started. And for a much better cause than a large amount of federal spending, I’d happily cancel the SLS and Orion capsule for money would go to Ukraine.

Majority of Americans were in favour of the Iraq war in the first year too.

What happens if this conflicts lasts 10 years and costs $2T?

It's hard to quit a war once you get dragged in.

[cubsfan]

^^^ it’s a good point, but in the process Russia will go broke, especially if the Europeans, who have the most to lose,  pitch in with spending.

[Luke]

"Common prosperity for all people" is an "essential feature of Chinese-style modernization and distinguishes it from Western modernization," Xi said.

Western-style modernization "pursues the maximization of capital interests instead of serving the interests of the vast majority of people," Xi said.

"Today, Western countries are increasingly in trouble," Xi said. "They cannot curb the greedy nature of capital and cannot solve chronic diseases such as materialism and spiritual poverty."

 

https://www.voanews.com/a/china-s-xi-calls-for-patience-amid-economic-slump-/7228724.html

 

http://en.qstheory.cn/2023-07/05/c_899816.htm

 

"The world today is undergoing both transformation and upheaval; changes unseen in a century are unfolding at a faster pace; human society faces unprecedented challenges. Unity or split, peace or conflict, cooperation or confrontation -- these are the questions raised again by our times. My answer is this: the people's wish for a happy life is our goal, and peace, development and win-win cooperation are the unstoppable trends of the times.

 

Third, we should focus on practical cooperation and expedite economic recovery. Promoting economic growth is a common task for all countries in the region. China stands ready to work with all sides to implement the Global Development Initiative, keep to the right direction of economic globalization, oppose protectionism, unilateral sanctions and the overstretching of national security, and reject the moves of setting up barriers, decoupling and severing supply chains. We should make the pie of win-win cooperation bigger, and ensure that more development gains will be shared more fairly by people across the world.

 

We need to enhance the connection of high-quality Belt and Road cooperation with development strategies of various countries and regional cooperation initiatives. We should further promote trade and investment liberalization and facilitation, speed up the development of port infrastructure and regional and international logistic corridors, and ensure stable and smooth functioning of regional industrial and supply chains. Ten years ago I proposed the Belt and Road Initiative, and on its tenth anniversary, China will hold the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation. I welcome your participation. We should work together to broaden the Belt and Road as a "path of happiness" benefiting the whole world.

 

The Chinese people are rallied behind the Communist Party of China to pursue Chinese modernization. It is the modernization of a huge population, of common prosperity for all, of material and cultural-ethical advancement, of harmony between humanity and nature, and of peaceful development. With these main attributes, it has created a new form of human advancement. China hopes to share new development opportunities with SCO members and all countries around the world through its achievements in modernization, and together make the world a better place."

 

Doesnt sound horrible and I even agree on the failure of the west to achieve common prosperity over the last 30 years.

Edited August 17, 2023 by Luca

[Luke]

2 hours ago, Ulti said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/why-is-china-not-rushing-fix-its-ailing-economy-2023-08-17/

"A small number of Western politicians and media amplify and hype up the temporary problems existing in China's economic recovery," foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told media on Wednesday.

"They will eventually be slapped in the face by reality," he said.

[cubsfan]

2 minutes ago, Luca said:

"Common prosperity for all people" is an "essential feature of Chinese-style modernization and distinguishes it from Western modernization," Xi said.

Western-style modernization "pursues the maximization of capital interests instead of serving the interests of the vast majority of people," Xi said.

"Today, Western countries are increasingly in trouble," Xi said. "They cannot curb the greedy nature of capital and cannot solve chronic diseases such as materialism and spiritual poverty."

 

https://www.voanews.com/a/china-s-xi-calls-for-patience-amid-economic-slump-/7228724.html

 

http://en.qstheory.cn/2023-07/05/c_899816.htm

 

"The world today is undergoing both transformation and upheaval; changes unseen in a century are unfolding at a faster pace; human society faces unprecedented challenges. Unity or split, peace or conflict, cooperation or confrontation -- these are the questions raised again by our times. My answer is this: the people's wish for a happy life is our goal, and peace, development and win-win cooperation are the unstoppable trends of the times.

 

Third, we should focus on practical cooperation and expedite economic recovery. Promoting economic growth is a common task for all countries in the region. China stands ready to work with all sides to implement the Global Development Initiative, keep to the right direction of economic globalization, oppose protectionism, unilateral sanctions and the overstretching of national security, and reject the moves of setting up barriers, decoupling and severing supply chains. We should make the pie of win-win cooperation bigger, and ensure that more development gains will be shared more fairly by people across the world.

 

We need to enhance the connection of high-quality Belt and Road cooperation with development strategies of various countries and regional cooperation initiatives. We should further promote trade and investment liberalization and facilitation, speed up the development of port infrastructure and regional and international logistic corridors, and ensure stable and smooth functioning of regional industrial and supply chains. Ten years ago I proposed the Belt and Road Initiative, and on its tenth anniversary, China will hold the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation. I welcome your participation. We should work together to broaden the Belt and Road as a "path of happiness" benefiting the whole world.

 

The Chinese people are rallied behind the Communist Party of China to pursue Chinese modernization. It is the modernization of a huge population, of common prosperity for all, of material and cultural-ethical advancement, of harmony between humanity and nature, and of peaceful development. With these main attributes, it has created a new form of human advancement. China hopes to share new development opportunities with SCO members and all countries around the world through its achievements in modernization, and together make the world a better place."

 

Doesnt sound horrible and I even agree on the failure of the west to achieve common prosperity over the last 30 years.

Come on @Luca “common prosperity for all people “ is just a fancy word for “Communism “!

 

Its great that the West “failed “ at common prosperity- that means that meritocracy and capitalism actually works!