Political Posts

[Luke]

14 hours ago, cubsfan said:

@Luca  You dug this hole yourself putting this fool up as the expert on China. You ought to be more careful with your sources. It's abundantly clear from Chomsky's own writings (in print - unfortunately for you) - that he's a radical loon.

 

But you continue to stick up for your hero Chomsky - your China expert.

 

 

I completely disagree with what you say

[Xerxes]

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/nato-papering-over-cracks-zelenskiy-153040460.html
 

You got to give the Zelenskyy credit. He fights tooth and nail for his flag. 
 

Not the same clean shaven junior statesman who got stuck between H. Biden and Trump on weird allegations. 

[cubsfan]

14 hours ago, Dinar said:

Aren't the Baltic countries part of Nato?  So then obviously the mutual defense treaty applies.   I don't understand why American taxpayers ought to bail out incompetence and graft of the Ukrainian government.  

yeah, fair point.

 

Bailing out one of the most corrupt countries in the world, requires one to hold their nose. The real stealing probably starts with the rebuilding of Ukraine.

[changegonnacome]

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/nato-papering-over-cracks-zelenskiy-153040460.html

 

"Crucially, it was the US and Germany that insisted on dialing back the commitment to Ukraine joining the alliance. Earlier drafts of the communique offered a clearer pathway to Ukraine eventually joining, but Biden and Chancellor Olaf Scholz were wary of going too far."

 

Nice to see common sense from the US/Germany........if they were confused about Russian red lines before the Feb 22 invasion it might be understandable.......if you are confused now your an idiot........strategic ambiguity is the correct posture now on Ukrainian NATO membership.......and as Zelensky's early peace deal proposal from last year shows he knows, they know and we all know that any potential deal that might bring stability back to Ukraine such that it has a prosperous future and it isnt a failed state, involves them surrendering any NATO membership aspirations forever.....end of story.

 

It's an uncomfortable truth......but a reality.......this war completely and utterly destabilizes Ukraine.....its not helpful to the Russian economy either....but the asymmetry in economic damage alone is stark.....then take the population & war machine asymmetry between the two its just not smart to continue with this conflict in its current form.

 

The reality of the situation is captured in the below:

 

 

We like to talk about the Russian economy "reeling" from the sanctions regime......your GDP contracting by 2.5% is a kind of a medium size recession........GDP contracting by 30% as it has in Ukraine is a different story.

 

As I keep saying I hope Ukraine has some major victories in their counter offensive (good news on this front seem scarce right now) but they really do need to get around a negotiating table soon and ekk out the best pragmatic deal they can..........being a hero is fun for a while......but the reality & enormity of going toe to toe with Russia (even with the West's support) is becoming clear......Jake Sullivan said the quiet bit out loud a couple of months ago........Ukraine needs to put some kind of workable peace solution on the table by year end......the realpolitik of this is as follows.......there is still enormous goodwill towards Ukraine & Zelensky right now.....but as the recent "ungratefulness" chatter shows coming out of NATO summit......goodwill is a fickle friend and as the Ukraine war moves from the headlines to page 3,4, 5 it dissipates......Zelensky needs to think about rebuilding Ukraine......and right now the goodwill and energy that still exists......can be channelled into securing more consumable artillery that will get destroyed advancing Ukrainian front lines what 50 metres?.......or it can be channelled into securing billions upon billions of development aid from the West to rebuild his economy and society.

[John Hjorth]

3 hours ago, Xerxes said:

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/nato-papering-over-cracks-zelenskiy-153040460.html
 

You got to give the Zelenskyy credit. He fights tooth and nail for his flag. 
 

Not the same clean shaven junior statesman who got stuck between H. Biden and Trump on weird allegations. 

 

Both parts are somewhat stuck in this warfare, generating desperation in the situation on both sides. Ukraine is desperate, because it would be run over if not for the support by the NATO and G7 countries. No need to complicate things here.

[sleepydragon]

Qin gang is on leave due to “physical reasons”
 

not sure if the rumor is true.

Didn’t Munger said something about avoid siren sound especially if they are from attractive opposite sex?

 

[Spekulatius]

@sleepydragon Who is Fu Xiaotian and why would we care where she goes?

[Spekulatius]

On 7/12/2023 at 3:54 PM, cubsfan said:

@Luca  You dug this hole yourself putting this fool up as the expert on China. You ought to be more careful with your sources. It's abundantly clear from Chomsky's own writings (in print - unfortunately for you) - that he's a radical loon.

 

But you continue to stick up for your hero Chomsky - your China expert.

 

 

Chomsky is the guy who claimed Afghanistan war has cost us  $7T which is about the combined defense budget while it lasted. I checked the paper and they are extrapolating future costs somehow for the next 30 years and don't seem to discount it back.

 

I actually respect Chomsky but he clearly has a way with facts.

[Spekulatius]

Michael Clark is always a good listen. He discusses the the current aid packages (lots of rumored vehicles), the NATO summit and the (lack of) russian command Post Wagner Coup.

 

 

I say this much. There is almost no way Ukraine does not become a NATO member eventually.

[sleepydragon]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

@sleepydragon Who is Fu Xiaotian and why would we care where she goes?

Qin Gang recently disappeared. He's pro-westerner, former Chinese ambassador in US. 

Rumor is this lady is charged with spying, and she and Qin has a baby. unconfirmed rumors.

The picture is showing her on a private jet (her job is just a newspaper). Her last interview was with Qin 

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, sleepydragon said:

Qin Gang recently disappeared. He's pro-westerner, former Chinese ambassador in US. 

Rumor is this lady is charged with spying, and she and Qin has a baby. unconfirmed rumors.

The picture is showing her on a private jet (her job is just a newspaper). Her last interview was with Qin 

LOL, sounds like a soap opera. People disappear in China all the time and most of the time they later reappear. I guess it depends on how the re- education goes.

 

I still don’t understand how this is particularly relevant.

[boilermaker75]

9 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

LOL, sounds like a soap opera. People disappear in China all the time and most of the time they later reappear. I guess it depends on how the re- education goes.

 

I still don’t understand how this is particularly relevant.

 

Is the re-education like in the movie Total Recall?

[Xerxes]

13 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Michael Clark is always a good listen. He discusses the the current aid packages (lots of rumored vehicles), the NATO summit and the (lack of) russian command Post Wagner Coup.

 

 

I say this much. There is almost no way Ukraine does not become a NATO member eventually.

I agree with his comment that Feb 2022 was meant to be essentially a military backed coup. toppling the old government and installing a new one that is pro-Kremlin. But not his subsequent comment about its full annexation to Russian Federation. Frankly it is a bit silly that he even thinks that. Eastern provinces for sure but for the whole country … ehehe 
 

Even Belorussian that is already pro-Kremlin sits as buffer state on the fringe of Russian Federation between it and NATO. 
 

 

[Spekulatius]

20 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

I agree with his comment that Feb 2022 was meant to be essentially a military backed coup. toppling the old government and installing a new one that is pro-Kremlin. But not his subsequent comment about its full annexation to Russian Federation. Frankly it is a bit silly that he even thinks that. Eastern provinces for sure but for the whole country … ehehe 
 

Even Belorussian that is already pro-Kremlin sits as buffer state on the fringe of Russian Federation between it and NATO. 
 

 

If I recall Michael Clarks talk correctly, the end state is to do what he did with Belarussia and create a vasal state with a leader that is his puppet. In fact for quite some time in the early 2000, he had just that in place. He almost had Ukraine under control until it slipped away in the orange and the Euromaiden revolution. Must be infuriating for him and that's his issue, not the NATO expansion (imo).

 

Putin is going to grab any part of the former Soviet empire that is not going to join another power center like NATO. Maybe Kazakhstan goes to China which would put it out of his reach. Otherwise they are next most likely. Their leader for now seem Putin friendly, although not enthusiastically so recently.

Edited July 14, 2023 by Spekulatius

[Spekulatius]

33 minutes ago, boilermaker75 said:

 

Is the re-education like in the movie Total Recall?

No idea. Nobody seems to talk about it afterwards. Jack Ma, Fan Bingbing and many others could tell a story but they won't. Even XJP basically underwent an re-education under Mao when his dad was disgraced from the party. I guess it "works" in some cases.

 

[Xerxes]

1 minute ago, Spekulatius said:

If i recall correctly, the end state is to do what he did with Belarussia and create a vasal state with a leader that is his puppet. In fact for quite some time in the early 2000, he had just that in place. He almost had Ukraine under control until it slipped away in the orange and the Euromaiden revolution. Must be infuriating for him and that's his issue, not the NATO expansion (imo).

 

Putin is going to grab any part of the former Soviet empire that is not going to join another power center like NATO. Maybe Kazakhstan goes to China which would put it out of his reach.

I think your “end state” is correct. I am not disagreeing with anything you are saying.
 

The good professor however got a bit too excited in that interview podcast about “full annexation”. 
 

 

 

It is even entirely possible that a very pro-Kremlin Kiev government (say Orange never happens) in the 2010s would have somehow granted special control over Crimea to Russia. Keeping it in the grey zone. As they already had joint control over Sevastopol.
 

A full and proper annexation of Crimea while already having control/influence of Kiev could have “awaken the giant that is Ukrainian nationalism”. A bridge too far. Land grabbing Crimea came only after Orange revolution toppled its influence in Kiev.  

[Spekulatius]

This Sputnik_not parody account has some great posts:

 

 

 

 

Edited July 14, 2023 by Spekulatius

[John Hjorth]

Here we go again - 'same procedure as last year':

 

Politico [July 12^th 2023] : Ukraine warns key Russian gas supply to Europe will be cut.

 

Counter measures from Western Europe :

 

Baltic Pipe : Delivering Norwegian gas to Eastern Europe [mentioned by me upstream in this topic],

Danish Tyra Gas field coming online again after redevelopment, expencted now January 2024.

 

Continued shift away from gas to other energy sources.

 

I have no idea how this is going to play out. Likely it will harm both Russia and the NATO member states in  Europe in varying degrees.

 

[John Hjorth]

So much for retaliation for international seizure of Russian oligarchs assets - naturally it has political consequences, that seem to hit - more or less - to misfire, by logic based on actual opportunity, not in any way based on logic :

 

Reuters [July 16^th 2023] : Moscow takes control of Russian subsidiary of Danone and Carlsberg's stake in brewer.

[changegonnacome]

Artillery asymmetry between Russia and Ukraine/West is outrageous and a real problem. It’s disappointing to find the western allies so lacking in a war machine infrastructure…..another hollowing out perhaps of our collective industrial capability…..Biden/EU might need to sponsor an Artillery Act to build out the wests war machine again….it’s embarrassing to run out of artillery and so have to send cluster bombs instead…..while a fading power like Russia can seemingly supply infinite artillery to its troops…..I thought we were the ones with infinite economy resources and advanced military technology…..turns out, a bit like COVID supply chains, that we’ve atrophied another muscle we used to have…..Germany needs to stop making so many ball bearings for China and turns its not small engineering talents to artillery production and general weapons manufacturing.

[beerbaron]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

Artillery asymmetry between Russia and Ukraine/West is outrageous and a real problem. It’s disappointing to find the western allies so lacking in a war machine infrastructure…..another hollowing out perhaps of our collective industrial capability…..Biden/EU might need to sponsor an Artillery Act to build out the wests war machine again….it’s embarrassing to run out of artillery and so have to send cluster bombs instead…..while a fading power like Russia can seemingly supply infinite artillery to its troops…..I thought we were the ones with infinite economy resources and advanced military technology…..turns out, a bit like COVID supply chains, that we’ve atrophied another muscle we used to have…..Germany needs to stop making so many ball bearings for China and turns its not small engineering talents to artillery production and general weapons manufacturing.

The below is a much more accurate picture. Russia does not have infinite supply and they have not ramped up their manufacturing 10X like some commentor would like us to believe.

 

 

 

 

 

[changegonnacome]

56 minutes ago, beerbaron said:

The below is a much more accurate picture. Russia does not have infinite supply and they have not ramped up their manufacturing 10X like some commentor would like us to believe.

 

 

But its fair to say that Ukraine is severely constrained for artillery and Russia not so much? Which given the nature of the current battlefield is a big advantage.

[Luke]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/11/opinion/nato-summit-vilnius-europe.html

 

NATO isn't what it says it is:

 

Only four years ago, on the eve of another summit, the organization looked to be in low water; in the words of President Emmanuel Macron of France, it was undergoing nothing short of “brain death.” Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the situation has been transformed. As NATO plans to welcome Sweden into its ranks — Finland became a full-fledged member in April — and dispatch troops to reinforce its eastern flank, European Union allies are finally making good on long-deferred promises to increase military spending. Public opinion has followed suit. If Russia sought to divide Europe, President Biden could plausibly declare last spring that it had instead fully “NATO-ized” the continent.

 

But NATO, from its origins, was never primarily concerned with aggregating military power. Fielding 100 divisions at its Cold War height, a small fraction of Warsaw Pact manpower, the organization could not be counted on to repel a Soviet invasion and even the continent’s nuclear weapons were under Washington’s control. Rather, it set out to bind Western Europe to a far vaster project of a U.S.-led world order, in which American protection served as a lever to obtain concessions on other issues, like trade and monetary policy. In that mission, it has proved remarkably successful.

 

Many observers expected NATO to close shop after the collapse of its Cold War rival. But in the decade after 1989, the organization truly came into its own. NATO acted as a ratings agency for the European Union in Eastern Europe, declaring countries secure for development and investment. The organization pushed would-be partners to adhere to a liberal, pro-market creed, according to which — as President Bill Clinton’s national security adviser put it — “the pursuit of democratic institutions, the expansion of free markets” and “the promotion of collective security” marched in lock step. European military professionals and reform-minded elites formed a willing constituency, their campaigns boosted by NATO’s information apparatus.

 

Whatever the levels of expenditure, it is remarkable how little military capability Europeans get for the outlays involved. Lack of coordination, as much as penny-pinching, hamstrings Europe’s ability to ensure its own security. By forbidding duplication of existing capabilities and prodding allies to accept niche roles, NATO has stymied the emergence of any semiautonomous European force capable of independent action. As for defense procurement, common standards for interoperability, coupled with the sheer size of the U.S. military-industrial sector and bureaucratic impediments in Brussels, favor American firms at the expense of their European competitors. The alliance, paradoxically, appears to have weakened allies’ ability to defend themselves.

 

Yet the paradox is only superficial. In fact, NATO is working exactly as it was designed by postwar U.S. planners, drawing Europe into a dependency on American power that reduces its room for maneuver. Far from a costly charity program, NATO secures American influence in Europe on the cheap. U.S. contributions to NATO and other security assistance programs in Europe account for a tiny fraction of the Pentagon’s annual budget — less than 6 percent by a recent estimate. And the war has only strengthened America’s hand. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, roughly half of European military spending went to American manufacturers. Surging demand has exacerbated this tendency as buyers rush to acquire tanks, combat aircraft and other weapons systems, locking into costly, multiyear contracts. Europe may be remilitarizing, but America is reaping the rewards.

 

In Ukraine, the pattern is clear. Washington will provide the military security, and its corporations will benefit from a bonanza of European armament orders, while Europeans will shoulder the cost of postwar reconstruction — something Germany is better poised to accomplish than the buildup of its military. The war also serves as a dress rehearsal for U.S. confrontation with China, in which European support cannot be so easily counted on. Limiting Beijing’s access to strategic technologies and promoting American industry are hardly European priorities, and severing European and Chinese trade is still difficult to imagine. Yet already there are signs that NATO is making headway in getting Europe to follow its lead in the theater. On the eve of a visit to Washington at the end of June, Germany’s defense minister duly advertised his awareness of “European responsibility for the Indo-Pacific” and the importance of “the rules-based international order” in the South China Sea.

 

Left parties in Europe, historically critical of militarism and American power, have overwhelmingly enlisted in the defense of the West: The trajectory of the German Greens, from fierce opponents of nuclear weapons to a party seemingly willing to risk atomic war, is a particularly vivid illustration. Stateside, criticism of NATO focuses on the risks of overextending U.S. treaty obligations, not their underlying justification. The most successful alliance in history, gathering in celebration of itself, need not wait for its 75th anniversary next year to uncork the champagne.

Edited July 17, 2023 by Luca

[changegonnacome]

2 hours ago, Luca said:

In fact, NATO is working exactly as it was designed by postwar U.S. planners, drawing Europe into a dependency on American power that reduces its room for maneuver.

 

For Europe.......with friends like the US who needs enemies

 

Back to what I mentioned a couple of pages back.......Macron has articulated this view.........Europe is a price taker of US foreign policy in the region and most certainly in other regions......Europe minus a robust German (& French) military capability....is a toothless tiger from strategic autonomy point of view.....the US and Europe are sympatico on so many things...we are great allies in that respect.......but there's divergence there too.......and the Ukraine/Russia stuff is an example.....perpetuating the war in Ukraine......is a mechanism by which the US can ensure structurally higher energy prices for German manufacturers they compete with......and the list goes on.......minus the billions of dollars the war is costing the US....in some respects there's lots of upside with limited downside.....the US gets to slowly cripple the Russian state/army fighting with other people soldiers......energy intensive European manufacturing becomes structurally uncompetitive vs. the US's unlimited

 

Then you get interesting little incidents like the US spending a decade protesting against Nordstream 2 & ever closer energy integration between Europe and Russia..............and a gas pipeline getting blown up by mystery saboteur that no European country wants to talk about right now...

 

The realpolitik of all this is very simple - and explained by the realist IR perspective:

 

- a great power looks to secure its own region first....becoming a regional hegemon...the US spent much of the 1800's and early 1900's doing this...and was hugely successful....not a single person in the USA ever wakes up with concerns about neighbouring sovereign aggression....the US is totally secure with the Monroe Doctrine in place

 

- regional hegemon then seeks to play in other regions (Europe/Asia/Africa) to contain and box in the rise of regional hegemon emerging that one day could go global

 

- boxing in & constraining the emergence of regional hegemons is very logical.........a regional hegemon once they have dominated and secured their own region.....seeks to 'play' in other regions....potentially your region!!!!....cause thats exactly what you started doing once you'd secured yours....the US understands the playbook

 

- the pivot to Asia by the USA....is not some charity exercise its concerned with ensuring China never fully dominates Asia in the way the USA dominates the Americas......if China achieved this regional hegemon state.....it would be likely to begin to play deeper games in South America/Caribbean bringing 'trouble' to the US's doorstep........its why a conflict in the South China sea at some point is so likely.....better to go toe to toe with China there....than the Caribbean Sea!

 

- nations are chiefly concerned with their own survival and security....it drives everything in international relations....while we tell a heroes story about WWI & WWII.....great powers joined the conflict (WWI - britain, then the USA...and WWII (both)...as it became clear that Germany, if successful, would potentially emerge as a regional hegemon ala the Unites States if they didn't.....Britain and the USA at various junctures identified this as a strategic threat to their own sovereignty and security and joined the French in fighting.

 

To contain China...and stop its emergence as a regional hegemon....we've already got bases all over Asia.....and are ready in various arenas to go toe to toe with China.....Korea, Taiwan, Japan....ideally you do it in a Ukraine fashion......send money/arms and let others die doing the fighting and furthering your strategic objectives of containing/diminishing a potential rival/competitor.

 

Europe, as I mentioned needs to step up now with its own military capability aspirations, balance of power dynamics I think requires a third force between the USA and an emergent China.....left alone in a bilateral global competition the escalation dynamics are too easy to get out of control.....the situation is best served by a kind of EU referee but a referee with an army, nukes & artillery (the EU is already an economic superpower) and enough strategic autonomy to be neither China or US's "bitch".

[cubsfan]

12 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

Artillery asymmetry between Russia and Ukraine/West is outrageous and a real problem. It’s disappointing to find the western allies so lacking in a war machine infrastructure…..another hollowing out perhaps of our collective industrial capability…..Biden/EU might need to sponsor an Artillery Act to build out the wests war machine again….it’s embarrassing to run out of artillery and so have to send cluster bombs instead…..while a fading power like Russia can seemingly supply infinite artillery to its troops…..I thought we were the ones with infinite economy resources and advanced military technology…..turns out, a bit like COVID supply chains, that we’ve atrophied another muscle we used to have…..Germany needs to stop making so many ball bearings for China and turns its not small engineering talents to artillery production and general weapons manufacturing.

No doubt President Biden has severely weakened the US military and his pentagon staff is filled with baffoons. His Afghan strategy was non-existent and disgraceful. If you’re a US ally, you have to be worried sick and seriously considering your own nukes.

 

And yes, he’s certainly let our armaments run down, as well as making terrorist countries among the most well armed.

 

There is a lot for Europe & Asia to worry about in the case of the US.