Political Posts

[Luke]

20 minutes ago, maplevalue said:

Am I thinking about the implications of this right, two possible scenarios?

 

1. coup -> regime change somewhat quickly -> Ukraine war ends soon -> supply chains normalize, energy prices come down?

2. coup attempt -> things can get messy -> heightened uncertainty -> even more disrupted supply chains?

Questionable how this new regime would position themselves, could become even worse. It will definitely shake things up good or bad.

[changegonnacome]

Moving forward when people reference a counter-offensive please specify whether it is the Ukrainian or Russian counteroffensive you are talking about…..this could get confusing  

[Xerxes]

With “Putin’ Chef” barreling toward Moscow at the head of a rebel army, perhaps that is more of an opportunity for Kremlin. 
 

A use of a low-yield tactical nuke would kill many birds with one stone:

 

(1) break the post-1945 nuclear taboo and normalize its usage (2) showcase an actual red line being crossed with the pillar of state being threaten by an insurrection (3) not use it directly against Ukraine (4) kill a tiresome Captain Rohm (5) intimidate Ukraine and others 

[Viking]

So is the threat from Wagner sufficient to force Russia to pull troops from Ukraine? Wagner exiting from Ukraine must be a significant development… they claim to have 25,000 troops. If the Wagner threat is real it makes sense to me Russia would prioritize putting down Wagner over empire building in Ukraine. Hopefully there is a way for Ukraine to exploit the current turmoil in Russia. 
 

I am already thinking ahead to Monday and how financial markets will open; especially oil. Yes, lots will likely change over the next 48 hours. Crazy times.

—————

We have yet another example of just how badly Putin miscalculated when he decided to invade Ukraine. It is looking more and more like one of the great blunders / catastrophes of the post WWII era. And it might end up costing him his job. 

Edited June 24, 2023 by Viking

[ValueArb]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

With “Putin’ Chef” barreling toward Moscow at the head of a rebel army, perhaps that is more of an opportunity for Kremlin. 
 

A use of a low-yield tactical nuke would kill many birds with one stone:

 

(1) break the post-1945 nuclear taboo and normalize its usage (2) showcase an actual red line being crossed with the pillar of state being threaten by an insurrection (3) not use it directly against Ukraine (4) kill a tiresome Captain Rohm (5) intimidate Ukraine and others 

Putin doesn’t have many options with few loyal troops between Moscow and Wagner, but tactical nukes are not very effective against troops. They are typically far too dispersed. His best bet would be to wipe Rostov off the map with something larger in order to decapitate the insurrection, but the consequences are entirely terrible for Putin.

[Xerxes]

2 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

Putin doesn’t have many options with few loyal troops between Moscow and Wagner, but tactical nukes are not very effective against troops. They are typically far too dispersed. His best bet would be to wipe Rostov off the map with something larger in order to decapitate the insurrection, but the consequences are entirely terrible for Putin.

Nor did a young Peter the Great have much in forces as insurrection was breaking out in Moscow, before pillars of state and interest group moved to protect the Tsar and decapitate the insurrectionist. 
 

With mini-nukes the aim is definitely not about being effective. Nor is the aim about Rostov, which is a Russian city. 
 

Anyway, all speculation on my part. I barely read anything on this “developing story” beside few tweets shown above. And what is on CNN yesterday. 

 

[cubsfan]

Does Putin control his own Air Force?

 

Why doesn’t he take out the Wagner convoys with Air power?

 

(here’s hoping he doesn’t)

[Gregmal]

I don’t understand why financial markets should care, at all. When this started, everyone made a huge deal of this. Told us how devastating it would be. How much it would push inflation higher long term. And that turned out to be completely wrong. Essentially a nothing burger. Oil was $90 a barrel pre war. Today it’s barely holding $70. This was little more than reality TV for the warmongers and pro USA propaganda for the media and politicians. 
 

So sure, there’s a new twist in Russia, but why should we care in terms of its larger impact here?

[Xerxes]

14 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I don’t understand why financial markets should care, at all. When this started, everyone made a huge deal of this. Told us how devastating it would be. How much it would push inflation higher long term. And that turned out to be completely wrong. Essentially a nothing burger. Oil was $90 a barrel pre war. Today it’s barely holding $70. This was little more than reality TV for the warmongers and pro USA propaganda for the media and politicians. 
 

So sure, there’s a new twist in Russia, but why should we care in terms of its larger impact here?

Agreed. The economic decoupling has largely happened.
 

Sure few % up and down here and there on the markets. But changing of the guards at the Kremlin is not going to mean much if it is just changing of the guard.  
 

The market will either open higher or lower and no doubt business media will build story around whichever comes. 
 

We are in the bull market of intellectualization of geopolitical content.

[John Hjorth]

 

[Paarslaars]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

I don’t understand why financial markets should care, at all. When this started, everyone made a huge deal of this. Told us how devastating it would be. How much it would push inflation higher long term. And that turned out to be completely wrong. Essentially a nothing burger. Oil was $90 a barrel pre war. Today it’s barely holding $70. This was little more than reality TV for the warmongers and pro USA propaganda for the media and politicians. 
 

So sure, there’s a new twist in Russia, but why should we care in terms of its larger impact here?

I believe there was a substantial impact on wheat prices though, Ukraine is a large supplier there.

[gfp]

This lady pretty much called it correctly 12 hours ago -

 

[ValueArb]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

 

There are also reports that Wagner fighters are extremely unhappy that Prigozhin made a deal, as well as regular Russian army units that had joined the insurrection. Whatever deal fir his personal protection he made isn’t likely to protect them. So this may not be over.

 

And even if it is this has ended, it still has caused a major snafu in Russian logistics right as they face a renewed offensive. 

[Gregmal]

So another hyped up, American media created cocktail, that turns out impotent. Nice.

[ValueArb]

8 minutes ago, gfp said:

This lady pretty much called it correctly 12 hours ago -

 

Nope, she’s nuts. There is no way Putin assented to a plan that made him look this weak, just to fire two guys he could have fired anytime he wanted to.

 

It’s a pretty bad plan when it loses 7 helicopters desperately needed to defend against the Ukrainian offensive, and control of the strategic hub for supplies, men and ammo for their front. But it’s even worse to have all of Russia reading Prigozhins bluster about how the war was a lie, and that Russia needs a new president.

Finally, the most terrible effect of all was all the Russian military units joining Wagner instead of fighting them. The FSB was fleeing offices everywhere on the path to Moscow knowing it wasn’t going to be defended.

Edited June 24, 2023 by ValueArb

[Luke]

Yep, i think nobody really knows at the moment. Waiting for official statements by russian government. 

[John Hjorth]

Kuppys working hypothesis - It's killing me! 

 

[Viking]

28 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

So another hyped up, American media created cocktail, that turns out impotent. Nice.

Really? You might want to look at any news service in the world right now… China, middle east etc… their lead story? Shit show in Russia. Nothing to do with the American media. Bit you can believe that if it makes you feel better  
 

Impotent? Describes what Russia is being reduced to… 

 

 

[Gregmal]

Yea. Sure. Tell us more about Russia sabotaging pipelines, false flag drone attacks on the Kremlin, and that dam strike! This whole thing has been laughable. The EU nat gas crisis. Zelenskys 11 figure grift, China invading Taiwan next. Oh boy.

[John Hjorth]

Nothing of what has happened since last evening local European time to the time of the U-turn by Yevgeny Prigozhin this evening  about 200 kms south of Moscow adds up in a meaningful total picture to me.

[changegonnacome]

Most plausible explanation to me so far that I’ve seen - this was a coup “fire drill” - Putin wanted to flush out any real potential insurrectionists…with a fake insurrection…..the FSB had eyes and ears out to see whom made any moves against the regime in the last 24hrs….very useless info gathered.

Edited June 24, 2023 by changegonnacome

[cubsfan]

50 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Yea. Sure. Tell us more about Russia sabotaging pipelines, false flag drone attacks on the Kremlin, and that dam strike! This whole thing has been laughable. The EU nat gas crisis. Zelenskys 11 figure grift, China invading Taiwan next. Oh boy.

Yeah that’s our corrupt state media alright.

 

Not too far from Pravda..

[james22]

Seems Prigozhin was being pushed out by Shoigu and so had to take his shot.

 

Once he found he didn't have air support and so couldn't advance on Moscow, he then had to take the deal offered (Shoigu dealt with, Wagner amnesty, and exile).

 

Putin actually may come out pretty well if he can now blame the war on Shoigu and Prigozhin out of the picture.

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, james22 said:

Seems Prigozhin was being pushed out by Shoigu and so had to take his shot.

 

Once he found he didn't have air support and so couldn't advance on Moscow, he then had to take the deal offered (Shoigu dealt with, Wagner amnesty, and exile).

 

Putin actually may come out pretty well if he can now blame the war on Shoigu and Prigozhin out of the picture.

Mr Pringles is dead. He will fall out of a windows or die by another misfortune soon enough. Good riddance. This whole situation also has been developing for a while, because Pringles has run his mouth fairly large,  and pulled most his Wagner back from the front after they took Bahkmut.

 

I am not sure anyone thinks this is fabricated story. it may not go anywhere, because I don’t think Pringles/ Wagner has any support by the Russian populace or military but the clash was reported in alternative sources first (just like anything else) not MSM and the sources showed credible material including Wagner guys and tanks controlling Rostov. This is not fake news at.

 

It does show what a shithole Russia and its army has become. It will be interessant what is going to happen at foreign Wagner bases in Syria, Sudan etc. Will they still be Russian or are they now privateers? Can we even tell.

[Gregmal]

It’s not “fake” but my god we ve been hearing about all these super big deals with massive global implications and major incoming consequence from all the usual suspects since February of last year. And the result? Nada. Wheat futures are volatile. Lol big deal. -30% oil prices? People have been trying to scream “HUGE STORY” with this Russia/Ukraine thing, for reasons I don’t quite understand, and as someone who is just looking at investment angles…find it both annoying and bizarre.