Political Posts

[Luke]

4 hours ago, UK said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-17/china-s-population-starts-shrinking-first-drop-since-1960s?srnd=premium-europe

 

The population drop-off came much faster than previously expected, and could act as a brake on economic growth by slowing demand for goods such as new houses. Due to the decline, the Chinese economy may struggle to overtake the US in size and the nation could lose its status as the world’s most populous country to India this year. As recently as 2019, the United Nations was forecasting that China’s population would peak in 2031 and then decline, but last year the UN had revised that estimate to see a peak at the start of 2022. The labor force is already shrinking, long-term demand for houses will fall likely further, and the government may also struggle to pay for its underfunded national pension system.

 

 

I bet there could be some equally extreme measures like the one child policy to increase the birth rate. 

 

Good Article: 

 

[Luke]

In late October, when Xi Jinping consolidated his hold on China’s communist party at its five-yearly congress, the world cringed. Xi seemed determined to push China back to the age of Mao Zedong, his role model. Hardline ideology would tighten its grip on the world’s second-largest economy, with dire implications for the rest. The last thing anyone expected from a strongman president entering his 11th year in power was a sudden about face. Yet within weeks, Xi’s government has reversed its efforts to control Covid-19, Big Tech companies, the property market and more. It has shown signs of reduced support for Russia’s war in Ukraine while easing tensions with the US and in its territorial disputes in the South China Sea. This softening seemed so uncharacteristic of Xi, some even speculated that he no longer set government policy. That’s unlikely — at the congress Xi had purged enemies and installed allies throughout the party. Yet the 180-degree turn on multiple policy fronts was unmistakable and raises doubts about everything the world thought it knew about Xi, the unbending hardliner. Was he now bending to pressure from worried officials, the public, the deteriorating economy? The answer may be all of the above. Xi’s Covid policy, the tech crackdown and the property bust had brought the economy to a standstill in 2022. The economy appears to have contracted in the fourth quarter, which is likely to bring growth for the year down to 3 per cent. That is according to official Chinese data — the reality was probably worse. China has not grown this slowly since the late 1970s and is growing no faster than the rest of the world, also a first since the 1970s. A performance that weak was a serious threat to an authoritarian state that rests its legitimacy on promises to restore China’s prosperity and its global stature. As the slowdown fuelled street rallies against the pursuit of “zero-Covid”, some protesters dared to call for Xi to step down. Officials in his own government were reportedly urging him to save the economy. Still, few if any China watchers thought the paramount leader would change course. Those who last more than 10 years in power often grow less flexible, and have worse effects on the economy over time, even in democracies. Many dictators, from Cuba’s Fidel Castro to Mao, have been snowballing disasters. The rare, steady reformers include the likes of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew, and Deng Xiaoping, who dumped Maoism for pragmatism and set China on the road to prosperity after 1980. Xi now appears to have moved into a grey area on the spectrum of ageing leaders — willing to reform, at least in the depths of a crisis. Aiming to revive the economy after the congress, Xi’s government started sounding less Maoist. It has dropped the “three red lines” on borrowing by developers, and announced that the “rectification” campaign against fintech firms is nearly complete. After tightening state control for years, it is sending out messages of support to the private sector, even offering details of its new global data market that suggest respect for private data ownership. The irony: Xi may be trying impractically hard to revive growth. His plans to build “a modern socialist economy” imply an annual gross domestic product growth target of 5 per cent, which is no longer possible. China’s population growth has slowed sharply, as has productivity growth. With fewer workers and slumping output per worker, the country’s potential growth rate is 2.5 per cent. Beyond this year, when spending by Chinese consumers released from lockdown may temporarily boost growth, 5 per cent is an unrealistic target. And more debt-financed spending will only increase China’s already massive debt load. Global investors, who so often blow hot and cold on China, have again flipped — this time to embrace the new Xi. Before November, the country’s stock market was tanking with the economy. Fund managers were launching emerging market mandates excluding China. Now, they are bullish on hopes of a post-pandemic “reopening” bounce and have been pouring money into Chinese stocks. The benchmark MSCI China index is up a staggering 50 per cent since the late October lows. Yet the questions about China’s policy direction remain. Xi’s pivot is a pragmatic course correction, but it raises doubts about his steadiness. His impulse to control may reassert itself when the economy starts to recover — a reflex much more common in ageing leaders than a full rebirth as a steady reformer. Still, we should celebrate this new Xi, if he lasts — he’s a lot better for the world than the old one.

[Xerxes]

For me the real story is not how much ammunition, shells and out of the box ideas Russia can conjure up to keeping lobbing toward its enemies, but rather how effective has been the use of SMARTArtillery by Ukraine for it to be able to punch above its weight*.

 

*Above its weight measured by the sheer size of the arsenal.

[Pelagic]

14 hours ago, lnofeisone said:

The "Russia will soon exhaust its capabilities" narrative has been going on for almost a year. Here is an article dating back to April of 2022 claiming that Russia is running out of ammo. Yet, here we are eight months later and that's with Ukraine successfully blowing up several large ammo/missile depots. 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1590515/Vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-invasion-latest-missiles-running-out

 

One that that's interesting is that Russia is exhausting its soviet stockpiles of old, low-tech missiles, tanks, and vehicles. 10 years out, Russia will likely be a prominent buyer/manufacturer of weapons to refresh its arsenal. 

 

Most of the ammo Ukraine has destroyed in the major ammo dump explosions you'll see highlighted on twitter, reddit, etc. is of the "dumb" variety. MLRS rockets, artillery shells, stuff like that. The precision stuff is kept and launched from well inside Russia - usually by their strategic bomber force. Hence why Ukraine has tried to target them on the ground with long range drones a couple times.

 

I think the west's intelligence agencies underestimated Russia's ability to produce precision weapons and/or overestimated the impacts of sanctions on that production. Russia has decades worth of precision weapons stockpiled. For instance the Kh-22 that struck the apartment complex in Dnipro is a naval asset designed for use against carriers that first entered service in the 60s, it's not particularly precise but it has a massive warhead and is capable of mach 4+ making it a lot harder to intercept than the usual sub-sonic cruise missiles fired in barrages against Ukraine. Launching strikes of 100+ missiles at a time in an attempt to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense takes a toll on their stockpiles, they may not run out in the sense they can't fire any but their ability to sustain that kind of mass strike against Ukrainian infrastructure is limited. They'll be down to what they can produce monthly, which is likely around 30 or so. Probably add to that some conversion taking place from missiles that were armed with nuclear warheads to convert them to put them in service as conventional weapons.

 

 

[Xerxes]

From AW

 

[Dinar]

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-728770

 

 

Apparently Russia is recruiting mercenaries in Serbia

[Libs]

8 hours ago, Luca said:

In late October, when Xi Jinping consolidated his hold on China’s communist party at its five-yearly congress, the world cringed. Xi seemed determined to push China back to the age of Mao Zedong, his role model. Hardline ideology would tighten its grip on the world’s second-largest economy, with dire implications for the rest. The last thing anyone expected from a strongman president entering his 11th year in power was a sudden about face. Yet within weeks, Xi’s government has reversed its efforts to control Covid-19, Big Tech companies, the property market and more. It has shown signs of reduced support for Russia’s war in Ukraine while easing tensions with the US and in its territorial disputes in the South China Sea. This softening seemed so uncharacteristic of Xi, some even speculated that he no longer set government policy. That’s unlikely — at the congress Xi had purged enemies and installed allies throughout the party. Yet the 180-degree turn on multiple policy fronts was unmistakable and raises doubts about everything the world thought it knew about Xi, the unbending hardliner. Was he now bending to pressure from worried officials, the public, the deteriorating economy? The answer may be all of the above. Xi’s Covid policy, the tech crackdown and the property bust had brought the economy to a standstill in 2022. The economy appears to have contracted in the fourth quarter, which is likely to bring growth for the year down to 3 per cent. That is according to official Chinese data — the reality was probably worse. China has not grown this slowly since the late 1970s and is growing no faster than the rest of the world, also a first since the 1970s. A performance that weak was a serious threat to an authoritarian state that rests its legitimacy on promises to restore China’s prosperity and its global stature. As the slowdown fuelled street rallies against the pursuit of “zero-Covid”, some protesters dared to call for Xi to step down. Officials in his own government were reportedly urging him to save the economy. Still, few if any China watchers thought the paramount leader would change course. Those who last more than 10 years in power often grow less flexible, and have worse effects on the economy over time, even in democracies. Many dictators, from Cuba’s Fidel Castro to Mao, have been snowballing disasters. The rare, steady reformers include the likes of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew, and Deng Xiaoping, who dumped Maoism for pragmatism and set China on the road to prosperity after 1980. Xi now appears to have moved into a grey area on the spectrum of ageing leaders — willing to reform, at least in the depths of a crisis. Aiming to revive the economy after the congress, Xi’s government started sounding less Maoist. It has dropped the “three red lines” on borrowing by developers, and announced that the “rectification” campaign against fintech firms is nearly complete. After tightening state control for years, it is sending out messages of support to the private sector, even offering details of its new global data market that suggest respect for private data ownership. The irony: Xi may be trying impractically hard to revive growth. His plans to build “a modern socialist economy” imply an annual gross domestic product growth target of 5 per cent, which is no longer possible. China’s population growth has slowed sharply, as has productivity growth. With fewer workers and slumping output per worker, the country’s potential growth rate is 2.5 per cent. Beyond this year, when spending by Chinese consumers released from lockdown may temporarily boost growth, 5 per cent is an unrealistic target. And more debt-financed spending will only increase China’s already massive debt load. Global investors, who so often blow hot and cold on China, have again flipped — this time to embrace the new Xi. Before November, the country’s stock market was tanking with the economy. Fund managers were launching emerging market mandates excluding China. Now, they are bullish on hopes of a post-pandemic “reopening” bounce and have been pouring money into Chinese stocks. The benchmark MSCI China index is up a staggering 50 per cent since the late October lows. Yet the questions about China’s policy direction remain. Xi’s pivot is a pragmatic course correction, but it raises doubts about his steadiness. His impulse to control may reassert itself when the economy starts to recover — a reflex much more common in ageing leaders than a full rebirth as a steady reformer. Still, we should celebrate this new Xi, if he lasts — he’s a lot better for the world than the old one.

This is a superb summary. Thanks. More evidence of  the need to be humble about predictions....at least in my case. I'm stunned at XI's reversals. 

[UK]

https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/wagner-chief-prigozhin-attacks-putin-administration-over-failure-to-block-youtube-2982772

 

He said there were two reasons why it had not been banned in Russia, which has clamped down on foreign media since invading Ukraine in February: that it was supposedly indispensable for ordinary citizens and, primarily, the opposition of President Vladimir Putin's administration.

 

Moat:)

 

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-01-18/wagner-group-founder-prigozhin-is-putin-s-model-entrepreneur?srnd=premium

[Pelagic]

Thanks @Xerxes interesting article. There was video circulating today of the mobile launch trailer that Tu-141s are towed around on. I hadn't realized they were launched like that, much like the Iranian Shahed-131s in that regard, it's very difficult to target the launcher.

[Spekulatius]

50 minutes ago, Pelagic said:

Thanks @Xerxes interesting article. There was video circulating today of the mobile launch trailer that Tu-141s are towed around on. I hadn't realized they were launched like that, much like the Iranian Shahed-131s in that regard, it's very difficult to target the launcher.

It's also interesting that these cruise missile systems didn't get intercepted by Russia and have been able to penetrate deep into Russian air space. One of the targeted airbases was close to Moscow. Ukraine may be able to fly one of these ones right into the Kremlin.

[Xerxes]

33 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

It's also interesting that these cruise missile systems didn't get intercepted by Russia and have been able to penetrate deep into Russian air space. One of the targeted airbases was close to Moscow. Ukraine may be able to fly one of these ones right into the Kremlin.

Russia’ massive multi-time zone landmass which was competitive advantage during Swedish, French and Germanic invasions is a liability in this current context of an enemy not interested to mount an invasion but to wage asymmetric warfare. 

 

[lnofeisone]

On 1/17/2023 at 11:22 AM, Dinar said:

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-728770

 

 

Apparently Russia is recruiting mercenaries in Serbia

Just wait until Afghans find their way to Ukraine to fight on Russia's side. It will be come full circle and only took 40 years or so.

[no_free_lunch]

Well some Afghanis are helping Ukraine.  The CEO of the company behind the switchblade drone is an Afghan refugee.

 

Quote

When he was a young teenager, Wahid Nawabi would go to the roof of his family’s home in Kabul and watch the Soviet helicopters flying in the distance.

..

In 1982, Nawabi and his family fled. Nawabi, then only 14, led his three younger sisters on a harrowing 48-day journey to escape the war-torn country to reunite with their parents in India.

 

Because of that experience, Nawabi said he feels a personal connection with the more than 5 million refugees who have fled Ukraine in the wake of this latest Russian invasion. Now as an American and as the chief executive of AeroVironment, a leading provider of military-grade fighter drones, Nawabi said he has a moral obligation to aid the Ukrainian defense effort.

 

Last month, the U.S. government sent 100 of AeroVironment’s Switchblade drones to the Ukrainians, part of a massive weapons package. Switchblades have been described as “kamikaze drones,” because after they lock on to their target, they fly in and explode. The Switchblade 600, which can fly for more than 40 minutes with a 25-mile range, is designed to take down tanks and other armored vehicles. The smaller Switchblade 300, which weighs less than six pounds and can be carried in a backpack, is meant for smaller targets.

 

Edited January 19, 2023 by no_free_lunch

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-19/china-creates-strong-nation-ride-app-as-data-regime-tightens?srnd=premium

[lnofeisone]

There is a large contingent of west-trained Afghan army that fled to Iran when taliban took over. They are generally pissed at the US. I can see russia tapping into that reservoir and Iran not objecting.

[Ulti]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged/id888420325?i=1000593746606
 

great podcast with professor Susan Shirk… China expert for decades and her past/ current views on all things China

[Dinar]

53 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

There is a large contingent of west-trained Afghan army that fled to Iran when taliban took over. They are generally pissed at the US. I can see russia tapping into that reservoir and Iran not objecting.

Can they actually fight?  Did not put up much of a fight against the Taliban

[Castanza]

1 hour ago, lnofeisone said:

There is a large contingent of west-trained Afghan army that fled to Iran when taliban took over. They are generally pissed at the US. I can see russia tapping into that reservoir and Iran not objecting.

 

10 minutes ago, Dinar said:

Can they actually fight?  Did not put up much of a fight against the Taliban

 

The Taliban was quick to find and execute many individuals who were trained at relatively high levels by US SOF. The ones that remain are likely in hiding or trying to get out of the country to the US. Basic Afghan infantry trained by US forces are very limited in skill and knowledge. Generally this is due to a trust issue. I would not consider them a meaningful force. Most basic infantry will fight for whoever gives them the best paycheck. 

 

A friend of mine who is a Green Beret and knows individuals who worked on Operation Pineapple Express said they are still working on getting out counterparts that they worked with. I would not count on many of these individuals fighting for Russia. In fact, from what he told me, many of the highly trained Afghan SOF individuals that evaded Taliban capture have been doing exactly what US SOF units do....train individuals for guerilla warfare. 

 

People underestimate the change in the Afghan people. One, many people had a small taste of what freedom can be like. Two, there are millions of individuals that are educated now and no longer living in the dark. Three, people still overestimate how much control the Taliban has. Most people still don't know that the Taliban pre-staged pictures, scenes, etc. in key locations that they knew the press would be to make the world think they completely took over in a matter of days. Worked like a charm and Western Press Outlets ate it up. From what I've been told, there is still a lot of resistance brewing in that country. 

 

Also just want to point out how incompetent the US Govt was in all of this. Kamala Harris called leaders from Operation Pineapple Express asking them to get out individuals she deemed important. Operation Pineapple is a self funded organization primarily made up of former SOF members who still have contacts in country. You have the VP of the United States, who has access to Delta Force asking someone else to do her dirty work without providing any funding from the US Government. That is laughably sad. 

 

_______________

 

So in short, I highly doubt that basic infantry with minimal training from US troops and that has an allegiance more determined by their own personal survival will bring any significant capacity to Russian forces. Not meaningless, but turn the tide capable? I doubt it. 

[Dinar]

The mercenaries you need to fear are from North Korea.  If, and that's a big if, North Korea has 500K well trained troops, then they can and most likely will be leased to Russia for a king's ransom.  

[Pelagic]

23 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

It's also interesting that these cruise missile systems didn't get intercepted by Russia and have been able to penetrate deep into Russian air space. One of the targeted airbases was close to Moscow. Ukraine may be able to fly one of these ones right into the Kremlin.

I guess whoever's in charge of Russian air defense has similar thoughts. If it works it works I guess, although you'd think to defend Moscow Russia has better options... Personally I think there might be an unspoken agreement between Ukraine and western Allies to only target clear military targets inside Russia. Russia's oil infrastructure would certainly make for a compelling target, and Ukraine has targeted some closer to the front with their "Alibaba drones". 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, Pelagic said:

I guess whoever's in charge of Russian air defense has similar thoughts. If it works it works I guess, although you'd think to defend Moscow Russia has better options... Personally I think there might be an unspoken agreement between Ukraine and western Allies to only target clear military targets inside Russia. Russia's oil infrastructure would certainly make for a compelling target, and Ukraine has targeted some closer to the front with their "Alibaba drones". 

 

 

Yes, i think Ukraine targeting Moscow is unlikely. In addition, the Kremlin is a world heritage site (just learned that when i looked it up), so that would be another argument against this particular target. 

 

I could see something along the lines happening just to force Russia to disperse resources. This would be similar thinking than the first British bombing raid on Berlin in 1941 that had only symbolic value, but led the Nazis to disperse large resources to protect German cities.

 

Edited January 19, 2023 by Spekulatius

[UK]

Some countries are already pre anouncing their new support for Ukraine, seems after tomorrows meeting they will receive a lot of new stuff.

Edited January 19, 2023 by UK

[Xerxes]

Romulan warbird de-cloaking off the coast of Hawaii

 

https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2023/01/19/coast-guard-russian-ship-off-hawaii-liebermann-cnntm-vpx.cnn

[shhughes1116]

12 hours ago, Dinar said:

The mercenaries you need to fear are from North Korea.  If, and that's a big if, North Korea has 500K well trained troops, then they can and most likely will be leased to Russia for a king's ransom.  

North Korea does not have 500k well-trained troops.  Not even close.