Political Posts

[shhughes1116]

A while back, the Germans gave Ukraine some bridging equipment.  Around 20 systems if my recollection is accurate.  This is in addition to some bridging equipment captured by the Ukrainians outside of Kyiv and Krakiv.  I've been wondering where this bridging equipment would show up on the battlefield.   

 

Now I'm starting to see a handful of the Russian sources I follow suggest that the Ukrainians have moved across the Dnipro in a handful of places directly across from Kherson - not mechanized units, just some small infantry units that could cross a river with inflatables.    

 

Controlling both sides of a river make a river crossing much easier, and the HIMARS have the range to sit on the other side of the Dnipro and hit Russian artillery positions that might be used to attack a river crossing.  The Russian units that retreated from Kherson are likely demoralized and disorganized, short of heavy equipment, and not expecting that the Ukrainians would do something foolish like cross the Dnipro in the Winter.  I'll make a wager that most of the Russian line along the Dnipro is manned by mobiks since no sane military commander would force a crossing of the Dnipro in the Winter.       

 

Which makes me wonder if we are going to see an attack across the Dnipro towards Crimea.  The Russians south of Kherson would have to choose between staying to fight (and possibly getting trapped in a salient without access to Crimea and Melitopol),or withdrawing towards Crimea where they can use the topography - the narrow isthmus - to their advantage.  (The Germans paid heavily for this area during the lead-up to Manstein's attack on Crimea and the siege of Sevastopol.)  Either choice would make the Russian line stretching from Zaporizhzhia to Polohy unstable.  This line has been heavily fortified by the Russians and I'm sure the Ukrainians would appreciate the Russians withdrawing from this line, rather than having to dislodge the Russians by force.        

 

 

 

   

 

 

[Ulti]

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/11/15/charlie-munger-weighs-in-on-u-s-china-trade-relations.html

[gfp]

9 minutes ago, Ulti said:

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/11/15/charlie-munger-weighs-in-on-u-s-china-trade-relations.html

 

That's great - Becky mentions at the end that Charlie had to go because he had another meeting right afterwards.  

[Viking]

1 hour ago, Ulti said:

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/11/15/charlie-munger-weighs-in-on-u-s-china-trade-relations.html

i do greatly respect Munger’s views on investing… his clip in the video on China sounded pretty unsophisticated. The West and China (CCP) have different values. And under Xi, China has publicly proclaimed that it wants to take its value system international. They are upping their game. 

[Spooky]

I would say it is idealistic not unsophisticated. He is definitely right - it would be in both countries' interest to find a way to co-exist and succeed. The alternative is not good.

 

The rest of the world is not going to easily accept the CCP's worldview that individuals do not have universal basic rights. The CCP will need to bend in some fashion to co-exist in the world and, potentially, with its own citizens. The first episode of the economist's new podcast series on China was interesting: https://play.acast.com/s/633ebf6dfc7f5a0012acdc97/636d16a557167f001234ed9e

 

[Luke]

https://news.sky.com/story/russian-missiles-kill-two-people-in-nato-member-poland-us-intelligence-official-says-12748369

 

This is bad, wondering if NATO will do something.

[Gregmal]

This will be a big hit with the warmongers 

[Xerxes]

Bloomberg spend more than an HOUR on this news. Jesus ! A business network.  

 

The Iraqi drove a French Exocet missile straight in the belly of U.S.S. Stark in the 80s. Their own ally.
 

U.S.S. Vincennes in turn shot down a passenger airliner, few years later. 
 

mistakes and error happens. And frankly this is hardly groundshaking. 
 

Find ways to give Ukrainian more and more defensive tools they have to defend themselves. Don’t waste airtime/energy on “uhhhh 2 missile came in … within inches or accidentally came on that side” 
 

 

[Viking]

If Russia has attacked NATO then this is a big deal. That military alliance thing… Do we need more information? Of course. The problem with wars is they often move in unpredictable directions. 
 

The bottom line, there is no way Russia will let Ukraine win the war. And it looks like Ukraine is winning the war. So Russia will need to get creative.

Edited November 15, 2022 by Viking

[Xerxes]

18 hours ago, shhughes1116 said:

.  (The Germans paid heavily for this area during the lead-up to Manstein's attack on Crimea and the siege of Sevastopol.) 

 

Shhughes you seem to be pretty close to the situation. Or following very closely.  
 

The only part of your post I could relate too or comment about is that it was fall of Sevastopol that gained Von Manstein his Field Marshal’ Baton !! 

[Xerxes]

5 minutes ago, Viking said:

If Russia has attacked NATO then this is a big deal. That military alliance thing… Do we need more information? Of course. The problem with wars is they often move in unpredictable directions. 
 

The bottom line, there is no way Russia will let Ukraine win the war. And it looks like Ukraine is winning the war. So Russia will need to get creative.

I guarantee you (IMO) that of all the things that has happened here in the past six months, the two missile that accidentally (allegedly) went on the other side is not going to high on the list. Once the powwow settles down and once media are done amplifying it and moved on to the next story to amplify. 

[formthirteen]

The 51st Mounted Vodka Brigade is already celebrating the victory over Poland:

 

 

No opinion on the war other than it will be a long one and both sides seem to be losing.

[Viking]

55 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

I guarantee you (IMO) that of all the things that has happened here in the past six months, the two missile that accidentally (allegedly) went on the other side is not going to high on the list. Once the powwow settles down and once media are done amplifying it and moved on to the next story to amplify. 

You are assuming it was an accident. Or that it is not the beginning of some part of Russia’s plan. it could also be from Ukrainian defense systems. 
 

I have no idea. But i have also not ruled anything out. Stay inquisitive. Stay open minded. 
—————

We also recently had the explosion of the Nordstream pipeline. No idea what the significance of that will ultimately prove to be. If anything. 
—————

Bottom line, the longer the Ukraine war continues the greater the likelihood  it spreads in an unanticipated/unwelcome direction. Especially if Russia is losing (like today). 

Edited November 15, 2022 by Viking

[Dinar]

23 minutes ago, formthirteen said:

The 51st Mounted Vodka Brigade is already celebrating the victory over Poland:

 

 

No opinion on the war other than it will be a long one and both sides seem to be losing.

You know Poles crushed Communists when they invaded Poland in 1919, thank God for Pilsudski

[Xerxes]

Viking

agreed that we don’t know anything nor have all the facts. 

[Pelagic]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

I guarantee you (IMO) that of all the things that has happened here in the past six months, the two missile that accidentally (allegedly) went on the other side is not going to high on the list. Once the powwow settles down and once media are done amplifying it and moved on to the next story to amplify. 

 

I think broadly speaking you're right. But there's a handful of factions within NATO that can be categorized by their support for Ukraine, and this extends to factions within member states as well. They range from direct military intervention in Ukraine to let Ukraine kill Russians until the last Ukrainian. So far the US has taken a more restrained approach fearing more involvement and aid on their end could provoke Russia even more evidenced by them not providing things ATACAMs, fighter aircraft, western main battle tanks, etc.

 

Poland on the other hand has been one of the factions calling for NATO to do more to aid Ukraine. If it turns out Russian missiles struck Poland and killed Polish citizens, the Polish faction's voice becomes a lot louder and more insistent on the point of giving Ukraine what it needs to win. At the absolute minimum I think we see a bubble of NATO air defense that extends over western Ukraine and takes a proactive approach to shooting down anything Russian that comes near the Polish border.

[shhughes1116]

4 hours ago, Luca said:

https://news.sky.com/story/russian-missiles-kill-two-people-in-nato-member-poland-us-intelligence-official-says-12748369

 

This is bad, wondering if NATO will do something.

I don’t think NATO’s approach to this conflict will change on the basis of two missiles that landed in Poland.  They’ll continue to provide arms for Ukraine, and maybe they’ll expedite some air defense equipment.  
 

Poland, Slovakia, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia will likely argue for an air defense “umbrella” covering the western portion of Ukraine, using units based in Poland.  I don’t think other NATO countries will be interested in doing this since it will appear to escalate the conflict.  

Edited November 15, 2022 by shhughes1116

[shhughes1116]

3 hours ago, Xerxes said:

 

Shhughes you seem to be pretty close to the situation. Or following very closely.  
 

The only part of your post I could relate too or comment about is that it was fall of Sevastopol that gained Von Manstein his Field Marshal’ Baton !! 

Manstein was an impressive tactician and strategist, and his most notable successes were when the odds were stacked against him.  His work to execute a fighting withdrawal after Operation Uranus while at the same time extricating Army Group  A from the Caucasus region was genius.  Bubblegum and some string to hold the German lines together.

 

I follow the events in Ukraine closely.  I have a handful of Russian and Ukrainian sources that aren’t well-followed but have been reliable.  But the bulk of my analysis is based on an understanding of the geography, an understanding of each country’s system of warfare and logistics,  an understanding of their underlying capabilities for generating and maintaining an army in the field, etc.  Pattern recognition.  

[no_free_lunch]

The missile attack, regardless of intent, is not going to trigger article 5. I think pelagic is right it can be used to boost aid or direct air defense, maybe a few more sanctions but that's it.  The Ukrainian sources I follow would obviously like escalation but nobody really seems to expect it.

Edited November 16, 2022 by no_free_lunch

[Xerxes]

 

President Andrzej Duda said the projectile was “Russian-made” and variously referred to it as either a missile or a rocket.

“What happened was an isolated incident,” said Duda, who added that an investigation is underway. “There is no indication that more will take place”

Poland is a member of NATO. The development set off a chain of diplomatic activity among members of the alliance and Ukraine, which is not a NATO member but which gets massive military aid from the alliance.

U.S. President Joe Biden spoke with Duda and “offered full U.S. support for an assistance with Poland’s investigation,” the White House said. “President Biden reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to NATO.”

 

From CNBC

Missile strike Poland called 'isolated incident'; allies 'on standby' (cnbc.com)

[Xerxes]

Here is another situation, where in this case NATO bombed the Chinese embassy, an entire building, and called it an accident. If that was an accident, than I think one can let go suspision of Kremlin targetting poor farmers in Poland and for what.

 

The night the US bombed a Chinese embassy - BBC News

United States bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade - Wikipedia

 

 

Edited November 16, 2022 by Xerxes

[Dinar]

13 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

Here is another situation, where in this case NATO bombed the Chinese embassy, an entire building, and called it an accident. If that was an accident, than I think one can let go suspision of Kremlin targetting poor farmers in Poland and for what.

 

The night the US bombed a Chinese embassy - BBC News

United States bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade - Wikipedia

 

 

Don't forget Kursk submarine accident.  If I remember correctly, there were rumors that a US sub accidentally rammed it.  

[no_free_lunch]

Agree with you both. There is also the time that Turkey shot down a Russian fighter along the Syrian Turkish border.  That too did not result in ww3 or really any reaction from Russia so there is obviously some room for a NATO response here, if needed. 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shootdown

[UK]

Seems like some friendly fire after all. However, not sure how much it is true, but it also seems that a very high percentage of  Russian rockets from the last barrage were very successfully taken down by improving Ukraine air defense. Germany and other western countries have some really effective hardware:)

[Gregmal]

So it actually might have been Ukraine? Lol

 

But hey, it’s newsworthy and clickbait because everyone knows tons of people always take the Russia bait.